Greece Votes Communist

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Interesting Greek history of early 1900s

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/07/13/opinion/greek-defiance-has-a-history.html?ref=world&_r=0&referrer=

[Gusington]

"Defeat began with a monkey bite." Doesn't it always?

Great article...I know so little modern Greek history but that article does show a lot of Greek national character. Tough and stubborn.

Have to respect that, to an extent.

[mirth]

What a remarkable bit of smoke and mirrors

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/14/world/europe/greece-debt-plan.html

[airboy]

The proffered deal is much worse financially than the one the Greeks voted down.  It still requires a lot more money to be poured down the Greek rat hole.  One of the biggest things yet to be spelled out is how the banks would be recapitalized. 

What the financial press is reporting is that deposits over specific minimums would be "liquidated" at a relatively high rate.  This is what happened in Cyprus but with a critical distinction.  Cyprus was holding a lot of Russian gangster money at high interest rates and much of those deposits were wiped out.  It has not been suggested that ordinary Greek deposits were anything other than people who saved money who were unwise enough not to make the deposits in other countries.  This would tend to eliminate the worst of the kickback/graft artists from Greece - who would hold their largest deposits outside the country.

[Boggit]

The proffered deal is much worse financially than the one the Greeks voted down.  It still requires a lot more money to be poured down the Greek rat hole.  One of the biggest things yet to be spelled out is how the banks would be recapitalized. 

What the financial press is reporting is that deposits over specific minimums would be "liquidated" at a relatively high rate.  This is what happened in Cyprus but with a critical distinction.  Cyprus was holding a lot of Russian gangster money at high interest rates and much of those deposits were wiped out.  It has not been suggested that ordinary Greek deposits were anything other than people who saved money who were unwise enough not to make the deposits in other countries.  This would tend to eliminate the worst of the kickback/graft artists from Greece - who would hold their largest deposits outside the country.

Actually many rich Greeks bought property (real estate) in London a few years back to keep their wealth untouchable by the Greek authorities, to the extent it created a price bubble in the South-East on the UK.

[OJsDad]

The Greek PM has resigned.  Will be interesting too see where this goes now.

[Boggit]

He hasn't ruled out standing for re-election, so it may just be a political game he's playing.

[OJsDad]

So, with the tidal wave of refugees coming from the Middle East and Africa, they may not have to worry about their debt much longer. 

[Boggit]

So, with the tidal wave of refugees coming from the Middle East and Africa, they may not have to worry about their debt much longer.

Well, the term "refugees" is used very loosely by the media. Many people as "refugees" ceased to qualify for that term, as no longer in danger, or having their safety being threatened, as soon as they arrived in Turkey. In reality the "refugees" illegally in Europe are actually colonists/settlers seeking a better life in Europe. Historically, the likelihood of permanent settlement, as opposed to seeking refuge for the duration of conflict in their home country tends to be high, hence the term colonists/settlers. A sizeable proportion of "refugees" are economic migrants, a smaller proportion are criminals profiting from people trafficking, and there's probably not a few jihadi terrorists masquerading as "refugees". We just don't really know the facts given the numbers and unwillingness of many "refugees" to register themselves.

I suspect Germany has not considered the long term effects of mass migration from an alien culture, and will experience the same pains of lack of integration, financial and social tension as experienced by Sweden and France who have previously been very generous with open door migration policies.

The whole issue has been manipulated by the media on emotional grounds without enough thought being applied to social integration, the impact on domestic population concerns, and opportunities, as well as the financial costs of maintaining such a policy when their own poor are suffering from the effects of government cuts. Certainly in the UK the burden of cuts have fallen on the poorest in society, as the government is unwilling to tax the very rich, so it's hard to see how they will afford to take many "refugees". I suspect there will be a lot of "discussions" in Germany when the honeymoon period of being "nice" Germany is over, and reality hits.

I'd add that undoubtedly some "refugees" have tragic stories, but European governments need to think through the consequences of open door migration.

[jejo68]

So, with the tidal wave of refugees coming from the Middle East and Africa, they may not have to worry about their debt much longer.

Well, the term "refugees" is used very loosely by the media. Many people as "refugees" ceased to qualify for that term, as no longer in danger, or having their safety being threatened, as soon as they arrived in Turkey. In reality the "refugees" illegally in Europe are actually colonists/settlers seeking a better life in Europe. Historically, the likelihood of permanent settlement, as opposed to seeking refuge for the duration of conflict in their home country tends to be high, hence the term colonists/settlers. A sizeable proportion of "refugees" are economic migrants, a smaller proportion are criminals profiting from people trafficking, and there's probably not a few jihadi terrorists masquerading as "refugees". We just don't really know the facts given the numbers and unwillingness of many "refugees" to register themselves.

I suspect Germany has not considered the long term effects of mass migration from an alien culture, and will experience the same pains of lack of integration, financial and social tension as experienced by Sweden and France who have previously been very generous with open door migration policies.

The whole issue has been manipulated by the media on emotional grounds without enough thought being applied to social integration, the impact on domestic population concerns, and opportunities, as well as the financial costs of maintaining such a policy when their own poor are suffering from the effects of government cuts. Certainly in the UK the burden of cuts have fallen on the poorest in society, as the government is unwilling to tax the very rich, so it's hard to see how they will afford to take many "refugees". I suspect there will be a lot of "discussions" in Germany when the honeymoon period of being "nice" Germany is over, and reality hits.

I'd add that undoubtedly some "refugees" have tragic stories, but European governments need to think through the consequences of open door migration.

None of the people going to germany, are refugees. They came from another secure country so they are illegal immigrants.
But hey if the german people wants to commit suicide its their problem. Except ofcourse that as being a dane, we now have two countries on or borders that choose the same path, so I guess we will have to blow the bridges to sweden and build big walls against germany in the near future.

[Gusington]

Iraq and Syria are far from secure countries.

[Boggit]

Iraq and Syria are far from secure countries.

Gus, I think Jejo68 is referring to the colonists coming from Turkey.

You are quite right that Syria, and Iraq are unsafe countries, but when they reach Turkey then for the most part the colonists are safe from the threat of immediate harm, which is key to the definition of "refugee". There is evidence that might not apply in the case of Kurds, Syrian/Iraqi Christians and Jews. It is the latter group of people who can make a case for remaining with a refugee status on reaching Turkey.

The overwhelming route for migration is via Turkey/Libya, so Jejo68 in general is right about the legal status of "refugees" in Europe (at least via Turkey) no longer being refugees, but economic settlers. Many people are also coming from Pakistan, Afghanistan, China, Bangladesh, Sub Saharan Africa, and many other countries that you probably would not describe as ones meriting refugee status (although some individuals might me able to put forward a decent argument).

Personally, I don't think you can blame the economic settlers for wanting a better life on a human level. I have every sympathy with them on that score, but sympathy isn't enough to justify immigration policy decisions, which must take into account a huge range of factors, including housing, schooling, healthcare, finance, socialisation into mainstream society, the effect on the economy, whether the economy has sufficient jobs for the domestic population etc. We are talking about the tip of an iceberg that is melting fast, and the ordinary people of many European countries don't want to become ethnic minorities within a few generations within their own countries. I guess that border control in the Southern US draws some comparison, save for the fact that Europe is facing massively higher numbers of illegal immigrants, which historically demonstrate (see Sweden/France) much less chance to socially integrate than you might see with Latino migration in the US. Sweden is arguably the rape/crime capital of Europe (with France not far behind), with prison populations disproportionately coming from immigrant backgrounds. Both Sweden and France have de facto ghetto areas with reportedly large migrant populations who refuse to integrate into mainstream French, or Swedish society - and who surprise, surprise end up sending a disproportionally large percentage of foreign fighter to the IS and similar.

@Gus. Just in case this is what you are thinking - be wary of drawing parallels with Jewish refugees escaping from the Nazis. It is not the same scenario. In the UK certainly, Jews are part of mainstream society, and social integration doesn't appear to have been a huge issue after the initial pain of adjusting to life in the UK. The French experience before the Nazis took over seems similar. Although Jewish migration in the 30's and 40's was high it wasn't going to risk marginalising the ethnicity and stability of host countries. The present crisis is an entirely different ball game.

@jejo68 I don't think the German people want to commit suicide. A lot of ordinary Germans are genuinely very concerned at developments, but are marginalised by the media who are pushing their own agenda. When they try to discuss the issue rationally they are labelled racist or Nazi's as both labels are convenient devices to avoid discussion by demonising people with different views so that no one listens to them. Ask Mike_Ger who has been a victim of this type of censorship simply for asking people to consider the wider issues.

Frau Merkel, has promised to take in 800,000 colonists this year, and Sigmar Gabriel says 500,000 a year over the next few years. These are not for the duration of the conflict, but permanent settlement, and will completely change the social structure in Germany. At that rate, within a few generations, given that the vast majority of migration is Islamic, the native German population will be, or will be close to being a minority in their own country, and there is ample evidence that non-muslims living in an overwhelmingly muslim country can expect persecution on the basis of current, and historical precedent. Kindness to refugees is in general a good thing, but migration policy must be managed and thought out properly.

Apart from the media and the political classes few people are happy with the wider picture, although some big industry lobby groups are probably pleased at the prospect of being able to exploit a low wage expectation of mass migration to their own advantage. I don't suppose many Germans citizens fancy being pushed out of their jobs by cheap settler labour.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3226160/Germany-ups-ante-political-posturing-migrant-crisis-saying-500-000-refugees-YEAR-years-deal-unprecedented-influx.html

[Gusington]

^Jejo said 'none of the people going to Germany are refugees' - which is false. Some are.

Exactly why Germany feels the need to invite in 800k, well, I don't know. It almost seems as if the German government wants to set up a social crisis.

[jejo68]

^Jejo said 'none of the people going to Germany are refugees' - which is false. Some are.

Exactly why Germany feels the need to invite in 800k, well, I don't know. It almost seems as if the German government wants to set up a social crisis.

First of you cant fly to germany from a non European country without a visa, so that route is closed. And there are no direct ferries going from Afrika or middle east to Germany either.
Third everyone who enters Germany has crossed atleast 2 secure countries before arriving there so how can they be refugees ?

The fact is that what you see today is a bunch of people who are shopping around to find the country that wants to provide them the most in terms of ecomomic security and or jobs. Dont take my word for it, just go listen to the interviews being conducted there as to why they choose the countries they choose.

Do you think im being insensitive, well maybe I am but I dont want no god damn civil war in my backyard which is what is coming. The only question is where its going to start. Up until recently I would have guessed France or Sweden, but now with Germany on the road to commit suicide it might happen there first.

[LongBlade]

Anecdotally, that tragic photo of the toddler washed up on the beach...the dad's story is unraveling.

Read an article yesterday that there is evidence the family had been in Turkey for ~three years. The child (or one of them, he had a brother and a mom who also were lost on the journey) who needed dental work. Dental work is free/cheap in the EU so he told them to move from Turkey to somewhere in the EU for treatment. Tragedy followed.

I'm sure there are some real refugees who need help. How many? That's a different question.