Turkey shoots down Russian jet

[Nefaro]

This isn't mine.  I stole it from someone who probably stole it from someone who borrowed it from someone else.

Lt. General Tom McInerney is an expert on handling threats from fighter jets.
McInerney served as:
Commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad) – the military agency responsible for protecting the United States and Canada from foreign jet attacks – for the Alaska region
Commander of the Alaskan Air Command
Commander of 11th Air Force in Alaska
Commander of the 3rd Tactical Fighter Wing, Clark Air Base, Philippines
Commander of the 313th Air Division, Kadena Air Base, Japan
Commander of 3rd Air Force, Royal Air Force Station Mildenhall, England
Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Air Force
A command pilot with more than 4,100 flying hours, including 407 combat missions
In his role as Norad commander for Alaska, McInerney dealt with more Russian fighter jet incursions (which he calls "bear penetrations") than anyone else in the world.
So McInerney knows how to tell innocent from hostile incursions by foreign fighter jets, standard rules of engagement of foreign fighter jets, how to read radar tracks, and the other things he would need to know to form an informed opinion about the shootdown of a foreign jet.
Yesterday, McInerney told Fox News – much to the surprise of the reporter interviewing him – that assuming the Turkish version of the flight path of the Russian jet is accurate, Russia wasn't threatening Turkey, and that Turkey's shoot down of the Russian jet "had to be pre-planned", as the jet wasn't in Turkish air space long enough for anything other than a premeditated attack to have brought it down

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4630118119001/radar-track-shows-russia-jets-path-over-turkish-territory/?#sp=show-clips

I'll buy that. The premeditation is from prior incursions.

Is a shoot down overkill? Probably. An escort out would have been better. Still, there is no excuse for Russia trying to play the heavy everywhere. Even when Putin went to Australia for G8 or whatever, he had his navy trying to intimidate. WTF? You can't play bully forever without the expectation somebody will break you nose.

Agreed.

It's obvious from the tracks that the Turks were waiting for the Russkies to trip the line once again.  Not like it's the first time. 

The Turks may well have overreacted but, from what I've read, the Russian a/c have been pushing their limits despite warnings.  Takes two to air tango?

[besilarius]

Newtonian physics of the shootdown.

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/belgian-physicists-calculate-that-everyone-is-lying-about-the-downed-russian-jet

It's the law.

[Gusington]

'Everyone is lying' is a pretty safe bet, all the time.

[Mr. Bigglesworth]

Newtonian physics of the shootdown.

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/belgian-physicists-calculate-that-everyone-is-lying-about-the-downed-russian-jet

It's the law.

Sounds like bs. The first obvious mistake is saying the fall is only controlled by gravity. Uh, a jet has wings. Second is saying the "rocket" can only make a 90 degree turn if it is much heavier? 

[Boggit]

  We'd just need to find a way to protect Greece and Israel.  The Saudis can fend for themselves.

Im pretty sure Israel can take care of itself.

It depends on how the odds start to stack up. Sisi's Egypt isn't going to cause Israel any trouble giving their own internal Islamist threats, which puts them de facto on Israel's side. Assad has his hands full with the amorphous FSA, and IS. Russia and Iran have their own agenda keeping IS in power and supporting their Shiite buddies in Iraq. The Kurds want their own state, and given that they're also one of the oldest communities living in the ME it isn't surprising, but they're fighting IS, and don't really have much of a bone to pick with Israel. Turkey is fighting the Kurds, and have been giving IS a wink until fairly recently. Erdogan is the joker in the pack as he tries to undermine secular Turkey into a sunni religious state, which may mean he becomes softer on IS. IS of course being Salafist in affiliation will hate Israel with a passion, and if it grows, and coalesces with whoever ends up ruling Syria, gets Turkish support, and taps into the Palestinian cause, then I think Israel has a much bigger treat facing it than it previously imagined. If IS turns its focus on Israel if Al Assad is neutralised, and the West continue to 'talk' about dealing with IS, but don't do more than airstrikes, then Israel has serious problem it will need to address for its own security.

[Boggit]

I still say "Arm the Kurds to the teeth." Set up a pipeline of weapons that can be shut off at once if they start misbehaving in any way close to what other players in the area are doing. I think they are looking to follow the Israeli model and that brings up another good point. Make it clear that we expect great things from them as a friend. Our friends can be their friends and we also have a friend with a Mediterranean view. I know The Kurds are no angels but they have been practically begging to be taken under our wing for nearly a quarter century.

+1 O0

[LongBlade]

Yeah I've read the pre-meditated confrontation in a few articles now.  It makes some scary sense.

One of the reports I saw on TV indicated that there is an ethnic group bordering both sides of the border - Turkomans IIRC. Historically the Turks (and this is going to sound kinda familiar) have felt it was their duty to protect these people, regardless of whose side of the border they were on.

Obviously any Turkomans on the Syrian side are probably going to have loyalties pointing elsewhere than Assad. Thus the Russians were likely attacking the Turkomans, whom the Turks felt they needed to protect.

It would then be consistent that the Russians could have been on the Syrian side of the border, been warned to cease their attacks, and Turkey then felt justified in shooting down the Russian jet.

At least that's how I see it coming together.

Turkey was betting (correctly) that Russia wouldn't want a full-on war with NATO.

[Boggit]

Turkey was betting (correctly) that Russia wouldn't want a full-on war with NATO.

Maybe, but it is VERY dangerous to act in such a disproportional way given that Turkey wasn't actually attacked, and apparently the plane was only 17 seconds in Turkish airspace. The missile launch was made more than 17 seconds before impact, and the F16 scrambled way before. If the Russians chose to take the view that it was a deliberate act of aggression, then Turkey is taking a HUGE gamble in relying on NATO, which is after all a defensive treaty. It doesn't protect Turkey from its own aggressive actions.

This time around it looks like Turkey got away with it, but I suspect the Kurds will receive help from the Russians against Turkish air attacks against them, which opens a whole new can of worms. It would have been far better for Turkey to make a diplomatic protest at this infringement as a more proportional response rather than get trigger happy. It's not as though the Turks don't infringe other countries airspace... and they haven't been targeted...yet.

[Boggit]

I had an interesting conversation with a friend who is an air traffic controller. She is of the view that the Russian jet was after an IS fuel convoy headed for Turkey, which is why the plane was really shot down. It also sits well with an article in the French media that Sauron recently sent me that suggests that some of President Erdogan's own friends and family are in cahoots with the IS over fuel sales, which would give ample reason for the Turks stopping a Russian jet from shooting up an IS fuel convoy - sod all to do with Turkish security and everything to do with bank balances... >:(

[besilarius]

Turkish intelligence and Turkish generals internal fighting.

http://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkish-army-officials-face-terror-charges/483009

[Staggerwing]

Could also be a bit of house-cleaning by Erdogan.

[Centurion40]

Yeah I've read the pre-meditated confrontation in a few articles now.  It makes some scary sense.

One of the reports I saw on TV indicated that there is an ethnic group bordering both sides of the border - Turkomans IIRC. Historically the Turks (and this is going to sound kinda familiar) have felt it was their duty to protect these people, regardless of whose side of the border they were on.

Obviously any Turkomans on the Syrian side are probably going to have loyalties pointing elsewhere than Assad. Thus the Russians were likely attacking the Turkomans, whom the Turks felt they needed to protect.

It would then be consistent that the Russians could have been on the Syrian side of the border, been warned to cease their attacks, and Turkey then felt justified in shooting down the Russian jet.

At least that's how I see it coming together.

Turkey was betting (correctly) that Russia wouldn't want a full-on war with NATO.

The Turks/Ottomans have a long history bordering with the Soviet Union/Russian Empire, which would figure into their reaction.

The Neo-Ottoman bent of Erdogan's AKP party somewhat resembles neo-imperialist bent of Putin's United Russia party.  Putin wants to protect Russians everywhere and Erdogan wants to protect Turks living everywhere.  One bully would not hesitate giving another bully a bloody nose.

The collapse of Syria and Iraq hasn't seemed to phase the Turks.  Perhaps that instability has worked in the Turks favour, and the thought that Turkey has been benefiting from ISIS oil sales makes sense.  The oil is going somewhere nearby.

[bayonetbrant]

Turkish intelligence and Turkish generals internal fighting.

http://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turkish-army-officials-face-terror-charges/483009

Not really new, of course, after Erdogan purged a bunch of generals for supposedly plotting a coup a few years ago.  Of course, it was only the overtly secular generals that got purged, as the overtly devout Muslims all somehow survived the purge.

[Centurion40]

Meanwhile, elsewhere in Turkey:

http://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/southeast-turkey-clashes-kill-6-pkk-1-soldier-martyred/483500

Six PKK terrorists were killed and a Turkish solider was martyred in southeastern Turkey in separate incidents Monday, the Turkish military said.

Three PKK terrorists were killed and a Turkish soldier was martyred following an armed PKK terrorist attack in southeastern Mardin province in Derik district. According to the Turkish General Staff, the incident took place when gendarmerie's special forces were carrying out an operation against the terrorist PKK group in the area.

Since July, more than 180 members of the security forces have been martyred and over 1,700 PKK terrorists killed in operations across Turkey and northern Iraq, including airstrikes.

[Gusington]

When did Turkey start throwing around the word 'martyr' like that? That alone is disturbing.