Second & Ten PC American Football Game - NFL Championship Weekend Results!

Michael Dorosh · January 23, 2017, 09:30:18 PM

Quote from: Grim.Reaper on January 21, 2017, 09:40:24 AM
In honor of the NFL Championship weekend, decided to do a quick sim of the AFC and NFC Championship games using Second and Ten Football Game.......looks like we will have a rematch in the Super Bowl.....Green Bay vs Pittsburgh! I really hope this is right!

I was cheering for both Green Bay and Pittsburgh... I will not be buying Second and Ten...

RyanE · January 23, 2017, 10:24:04 PM

Yeah, these predictions aren't a great testament for the game's connection to reality.

mirth · January 23, 2017, 10:37:02 PM

It was right that Pittsburgh didn't rely on Bell :P

Grim.Reaper · January 23, 2017, 10:38:21 PM

If a computer Pc football simulator was 100% accurate then a lot of people would be very rich since they would be great betting aids.....it's like saying a computer war game should accurately predict the outcome of 100% of all future wars.

mirth · January 23, 2017, 10:40:38 PM

Quote from: Grim.Reaper on January 23, 2017, 10:38:21 PM
If a computer Pc football simulator was 100% accurate then a lot of people would be very rich since they would be great betting aids.....it's like saying a computer war game should accurately predict the outcome of 100% of all future wars.

Maybe not 100% of all future wars, but it probably shouldn't take Portugal over the ChiComms.

Con · January 24, 2017, 07:53:24 AM

Quote from: mirth on January 23, 2017, 10:40:38 PM
Quote from: Grim.Reaper on January 23, 2017, 10:38:21 PM
If a computer Pc football simulator was 100% accurate then a lot of people would be very rich since they would be great betting aids.....it's like saying a computer war game should accurately predict the outcome of 100% of all future wars.

Maybe not 100% of all future wars, but it probably shouldn't take Portugal over the ChiComms.

Have you seen the Portuguese Arbesquers....those things are deadly

FC · January 24, 2017, 11:58:45 AM

My Second and Ten run through of these games had Atlanta winning by 7 and Pittsburgh by 4. I think that these games are generally pretty good at predictions, though that said my Action PC Football 2016 projection season had Denver beating Minnesota in the final ???

Out of interest here's what the Sports Illustrated experts predicted in September.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/09/06/nfl-predictions-2016-playoffs-awards-super-bowl

mirth · January 24, 2017, 12:02:33 PM

Quote from: FC on January 24, 2017, 11:58:45 AM
Out of interest here's what the Sports Illustrated experts predicted in September.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/09/06/nfl-predictions-2016-playoffs-awards-super-bowl

So most of those guys would take Portugal over China too....fascinating

Michael Dorosh · January 24, 2017, 08:20:12 PM

The main reason I follow football is because it's impossible to predict.

RyanE · January 25, 2017, 05:45:21 PM

I used to play some football simulations, but gave up. I found that one or two really good players WAY too skew the game results. Successful NFL teams focus on 53 plus. It is very difficult to build a simulation that can look at the off-field things that go on:

1) practicing situational football
2) football intelligence
3) I also don't think they factor in coaching enough

etc.

The Pittsburgh game is a perfect example of a simulation's (and the media's) heavy focus on a few stars, but failing to account for coaching and all the other players.

Its like a wargame that only looks at Tigers and Panthers in factoring how an operational battle plays out with no consideration of logistics.

Nefaro · January 25, 2017, 10:52:53 PM

They also don't predict player injuries worth a damn either. Or penalties. Other such things.

But I don't expect these sports text 'sims' to really predict anything. They're just enjoyable resource management games, with a very specific sports flavor, to me. More so the actual Career GM ones IMO than the Season Replay types like SAT - which do feel like you're just replaying the season due to it's rigidity.

RyanE · January 26, 2017, 01:39:40 PM

They also don't account for suspensions or football air pressure.

Grim.Reaper · January 27, 2017, 08:31:12 PM

Quote from: Nefaro on January 25, 2017, 10:52:53 PM
They also don't predict player injuries worth a damn either. Or penalties. Other such things.

But I don't expect these sports text 'sims' to really predict anything. They're just enjoyable resource management games, with a very specific sports flavor, to me. More so the actual Career GM ones IMO than the Season Replay types like SAT - which do feel like you're just replaying the season due to it's rigidity.

I don't know if I fully agree with that....season replay games not meant to "predict" injuries, they more represent the amount of time the players actually played in a season to roughly ensure they have reasonable usage. As for penalties, not sure I have seen anything too odd as well...seen fairly realistic amounts in APC and SAT. And yes season replay games do play within general parameters of the seasons being represented, that is the draw for people who like doing that. However, games like APC has an alternate reality mode which adds a lot more variability to the outcomes so not as close to real seasons.

I get that a lot of people don't like season replay versions and prefer career type games, but doesn't make these bad or unrealistic games....just different.

Seems like a lot of folks putting a lot of emphasis into the outcome of ONE simulation of these playoff games and making broad judgements. If I were to sim these games ten more times, the outcomes would be variable and likely Atlanta/New England would come out winning more than losing. If my ONE simulation would have shown Atlanta and New England winning, would that have made SAT a very realistic game? Nope, just one outcome out of a million possibilities.

Grim.Reaper · January 27, 2017, 08:37:07 PM

Quote from: FC on January 24, 2017, 11:58:45 AM
My Second and Ten run through of these games had Atlanta winning by 7 and Pittsburgh by 4. I think that these games are generally pretty good at predictions, though that said my Action PC Football 2016 projection season had Denver beating Minnesota in the final ???

Out of interest here's what the Sports Illustrated experts predicted in September.

http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/09/06/nfl-predictions-2016-playoffs-awards-super-bowl

SAT and APC handle their seasons differently. SAT releases the most current season at the end of the season....which my simulation was based on so used updated stats based on the real outcome of the season. So you end up with more realistic results. APC releases a projection season at the start of the season so any simulation is based on thoughts at the start of the season versus what really happened in the current season. Many people at the start of the season did feel Denver could go back to the Super Bowl and although Minnesota a tougher sale, some thought they had potential as well....so not that far fetched if you base on start of the season but of course if you base on how the real season really went, then certainly laughable.

Nefaro · January 28, 2017, 06:41:00 PM

Quote from: Grim.Reaper on January 27, 2017, 08:31:12 PM
Quote from: Nefaro on January 25, 2017, 10:52:53 PM
They also don't predict player injuries worth a damn either. Or penalties. Other such things.

But I don't expect these sports text 'sims' to really predict anything. They're just enjoyable resource management games, with a very specific sports flavor, to me. More so the actual Career GM ones IMO than the Season Replay types like SAT - which do feel like you're just replaying the season due to it's rigidity.

I don't know if I fully agree with that....season replay games not meant to "predict" injuries, they more represent the amount of time the players actually played in a season to roughly ensure they have reasonable usage. As for penalties, not sure I have seen anything too odd as well...seen fairly realistic amounts in APC and SAT. And yes season replay games do play within general parameters of the seasons being represented, that is the draw for people who like doing that. However, games like APC has an alternate reality mode which adds a lot more variability to the outcomes so not as close to real seasons.

I get that a lot of people don't like season replay versions and prefer career type games, but doesn't make these bad or unrealistic games....just different.

Seems like a lot of folks putting a lot of emphasis into the outcome of ONE simulation of these playoff games and making broad judgements. If I were to sim these games ten more times, the outcomes would be variable and likely Atlanta/New England would come out winning more than losing. If my ONE simulation would have shown Atlanta and New England winning, would that have made SAT a very realistic game? Nope, just one outcome out of a million possibilities.

Well, yes, SAT does it's injuries after the fact. I was alluding to the randomized ones most use.

Although I can't say I'm all the enamored of such very specific game losses due to injury in SAT. I'd rather it be more randomized to some extent. But that's probably just my preference for the more open GM Career style ones. Plus SAT has the setting where the specific games lost, for a specific player, are randomized for the season even though they'll still miss the same amount.

I'm still hoping a new NFL text sim with full-featured GM Career style gameplay shows up in the next few years. I do think the latest FOF was a big leap due to the changes in play calling, but the engine will always show it's age.