Russia's War Against Ukraine

[GDS_Starfury]

from what Ive been seeing the gains arent necessarily breakthroughs.  these are the area Ukraine retook late last year and theyve been building the same kind of rear area defenses that the russians have been building down south.  IMO its the Ukrainians falling back to the next line and not taking unneeded losses.

[GDS_Starfury]

from yesterday

[GDS_Starfury]

[GDS_Starfury]

ffs, I had some other maps that I cant find now showing the extreme north eastern front 

[GDS_Starfury]

might be go time in the south

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/07/26/world/russia-ukraine-news?unlocked_article_code=P_RU2TjKraFQCkgGohUVpX0TeC6wdATqSFJUoFUmLEV0_MRnUSZvD4-mxzQxkKPf9fFBB_1tl6eb9wN11r5AE-tgBTfCRgMtwMdDYcnXh6TgTjSuWFRZMwOI4k7Jdb365JyBZ5JYWae0GPQF5nQg4cDjBbzHZgVVrCbKdMYESYsEhKQ_20t0WsbQi0khkjTs4ygP5AfW7i6tidXFpAcjAY9nHxWpWVB0WrFPt5lvnl4Kl7UhMfiEzBsOjWddqrmFinUVsCxiInvHtf9f3JHPx_7VTK4PmtSK-S-4d2MT84kNO1NHFAN2iyDppiMlDCVrS1YSbbxwBFh9Nlv9CB-PGDbZANQ&smid=url-share

[Uberhaus]

In this area the Russians will be able to draw supply from Belgorod and Voronezh, hopefully the Ukrainians will be able to restrict it to a salient and smash it with artillery, especially their new ICM. 

The video Jason P. posted also showed that Shoigu is in N. Korea.  The BBC also mentions it: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66309231  N. Korea did supply Russia with artillery ammunition and rockets last year, NPR says millions https://www.npr.org/2022/09/07/1121477374/north-korean-ammo-will-stretch-russias-supply-but-with-clear-limits-and-drawback  So Shoigu will probably ask for more of the same, but I suspect he will also ask for troops as there was rumour and speculation of N. Korea was considering providing last year.  With the state of starvation of the majority of N. Koreans, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65881803 they might just do it.  The N. Koreans are also finally coming out of their COVID isolation. 

I haven't seen any news of China replenishing N. Korea's artillery supplies, thus indirectly supporting Russia, but China is sending incredible amounts of military gear to Russia including drones, thermal sights and body armour.  https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sending-russia-masses-of-military-gear-including-drones-report-2023-7?op=1

Finally, no one will like this, it's definitely not cheer-leading.  A leaked Bundeswehr intelligence report https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/26/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-germany-report-leak/ states:

Its central thesis, as it were, is that Ukraine's counter-offensive is failing to make progress because its army is not fully implementing the training it has received from the West. Kyiv is spreading its troops out too thinly across the 1,000km front line and attacking in units composed of too few soldiers, according to its findings. Furthermore, Ukrainian soldiers trained by the West are showing "great learning success" but they are let down by commanders who have not been through the boot camps. It states that the Ukrainian military favours promoting soldiers with combat experience over those who have received NATO-standard instruction. Commanders can therefore show "considerable deficiencies in leadership" which lead to "wrong and dangerous decisions", the military document claims.

According to the Bundeswehr assessment, Ukraine is sacrificing its advantage in manpower by attacking in units of between 10 and 30 men, insufficient to break through Russian lines. It adds that the small unit sizes increase the risk of friendly fire and fail to group together enough Western-trained soldiers to be operationally effective.

The report claimed that Western-trained soldiers understood "the operational principles of fire and movement" but when they returned to Ukraine would often be commanded by officers who used different military tactics. German military leaders also express frustration at experienced fighters being promoted over Western-trained troops, with the report claiming "combat experience does not mean that the soldier is a good leader in combat".

Hopefully, Starfury's NYT posts are what breaks the Russian's back, but if the Bundeswehr is critical of Ukrainian operations they would be wise to adapt.

[SirAndrewD]

from what Ive been seeing the gains arent necessarily breakthroughs.  these are the area Ukraine retook late last year and theyve been building the same kind of rear area defenses that the russians have been building down south.  IMO its the Ukrainians falling back to the next line and not taking unneeded losses.

Also of note that many of the advances the Russians made in the center got rolled back quite quickly.

The main threat is north of Kupiansk where the northern stretch of the Oskil is fordable.  That area's been pretty thinly defended due to other fronts taking precedence but yes, the UAF's been fortifying the area heavily especially around the river and Lyman.  Those will be tougher nuts to crack.

With the possibility the UAF is finally able to deploy its reserves in the south we'll see how long the Russians will concentrate on that front as a priority. 

[GDS_Starfury]

Also of note that many of the advances the Russians made in the center got rolled back quite quickly.

the magic of DIPCM 

[JasonPratt]

So... I was distracted while eye-washing through the NYT analysis, so I didn't get a clear idea of some points, and now I have to do something else. But has a breakthrough somehow been created to exploit with the mobile main force? -- or has the anti-Ork attrition in the area created a thin enough crust that, combined with a clear path having been made through the front defenses, it's time for the hammer to punch the awl through the crust and burst the dike or metaphors to that effect? (This is what I gathered the 'offense' so far was aiming for, not really to create a breakthrough in itself, but to create the conditions for a catastrophic breakthrough by the main mobile force.)

Or, with 100K relatively well-supplied Orks gathered into a push elsewhere, is it time to roll the dice now and hope for the best, before the Uks' main mobile punch has to be shifted over to something like a direct slugging match over there? Crumble the Ork offense by threatening a worse result? Who suffers more from a snapped artery? (Including which offense suffers more from a snapped artery?)

[GDS_Starfury]

no idea.  Ukraine operational security has been good as usual.  having said that, the russians aren't fairing well in the north if they actually have that force size.

[steve58]

Russia raising the draft age from 27 to 30; expected to add 2.4 million men to Russian forces.  And the grind goes on...


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html

[JasonPratt]

Looks like the Russian 100K offensive isn't going so well; although as I've seen several commenters note, this is partly (or totally?) based on Ukrainian counter-claims which may be misleading for several reasons (including possibly good tactical security).

Here's Denis' catchup from last night.

And Suchomimus, though somewhat earlier yesterday:

[GDS_Starfury]

I think its kind of funny that moscow is flooded right now.

[Uberhaus]

There has been a coup in Niger https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66324875  This is the country were four US soldiers were killed in 2017 and it currently hosts a US drone base to patrol the Sahel and 1,100 US troops.  Although, it might not have anything to do with Ukraine, it looks suspiciously like Wagner is involved.  From: https://apnews.com/article/what-to-know-niger-attempted-coup-security-a229a854e625eb8e15cd2a8c65048bd1

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a statement Thursday that "what happened in Niger is the fight of its people against the colonizers. ... It effectively means winning independence. The rest will depend on the people of Niger."

Hundreds of people gathered on Thursday in Niger's capital, Niamey, and chanted support for Wagner while waving Russian flags.

Niger borders Mali and Burkina Faso which after undergoing coups, Wagner moved in.  Libya, a Wagner stronghold, borders Niger to the north, but I don't think there is a strong communication network between, the road connecting going through Algeria.  Should Wagner troops make a rapid appearance in Niger, especially to prop up the coup, it would be indicative of their involvement in the coup, possibly with FSB support.

Even without Wagner involvement if the coup holds, it will probably see the US and French military presences asked to leave, under the guise of throwing off colonial shackles.  Something that Russia would like to see very much.  They may not be playing chess, but it looks like their playing dominoes. 

[GDS_Starfury]

guess whos arrived at the russians MLR.
seems to have been a remote control bmp to scout for mines and get into the trench.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1684613843593330704

https://twitter.com/i/status/1684594818414972929