Israel

[Jarhead0331]

Not completely exposed, or there wouldn't be apprehensions, too, which I think was at least part of Star's point, but I know what you mean.

There have been more then 2.8 million border crossings in 2023. More than 181,000 in August alone. If that does not qualify as completely exposed, I don't know what is. Furthermore, the country of origin for many of those crossing the border is no longer entirely from Mexico or Central and South America. There are increasing numbers from across Africa, the middle east, China and India.

It's also "also" a political issue, but we may be able to try to avoid that, as long as we don't consider the causes and possible solutions (if any) to any potential or actual tactical and operational issues. Not sure how easy that will be while discussing any potential or actual etc., but we can try.

It is not a political issue, unless you want to turn it into one. It is very simple to discuss the potential for attacks originating from terrorists who have infiltrated through the southern corridor and how such attacks may manifest without discussing the abysmal state of the national border policies. It has happened in France and Belgium since October 7. It is not a matter of if it will happen in the US, but when, in my view.

[GDS_Starfury]

Why would you jest about this as if there is no border crisis and Iranians have not been arrested having illegally crossed it?

because I think its a joke and the fact that iranians have been arrested along with a lot of other nationalities.
this tells me that the people on the border are doing their jobs.

[Jarhead0331]

Why would you jest about this as if there is no border crisis and Iranians have not been arrested having illegally crossed it?

because I think its a joke and the fact that iranians have been arrested along with a lot of other nationalities.
this tells me that the people on the border are doing their jobs.

If you think it's a joke, you're even dumber than I already thought you were.

[GDS_Starfury]

oh no 

[Jarhead0331]

oh no 

No, seriously. Its great you're laughing about it. I have daughters that go to a Jewish day school. 3,000,000 people have crossed the border illegally since January 2023. "Since the first of October, Border Patrol agents have apprehended individuals from Afghanistan, Algeria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya. Malaysia, Morocco, North Korea, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Yemen." That was between 10/1 and 10/10. It begs the question...how many weren't apprehended?

...and you think it's a joke? Yeah...stupid.

[Tripoli]

Not completely exposed, or there wouldn't be apprehensions, too, which I think was at least part of Star's point, but I know what you mean.

There have been more then 2.8 million border crossings in 2023. More than 181,000 in August alone. If that does not qualify as completely exposed, I don't know what is. Furthermore, the country of origin for many of those crossing the border is no longer entirely from Mexico or Central and South America. There are increasing numbers from across Africa, the middle east, China and India.

It's also "also" a political issue, but we may be able to try to avoid that, as long as we don't consider the causes and possible solutions (if any) to any potential or actual tactical and operational issues. Not sure how easy that will be while discussing any potential or actual etc., but we can try.

It is not a political issue, unless you want to turn it into one. It is very simple to discuss the potential for attacks originating from terrorists who have infiltrated through the southern corridor and how such attacks may manifest without discussing the abysmal state of the national border policies. It has happened in France and Belgium since October 7. It is not a matter of if it will happen in the US, but when, in my view.

In 2017, there were approximately 10.5 million illegal aliens in the US. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/04/13/key-facts-about-the-changing-u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population/ (I personally believe that number was higher, but lets go with this as a "best case" number).  As of this time last year an additional 5.5 million have crossed the border. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fair-analysis-5-5-million-illegal-aliens-have-crossed-our-borders-since-biden-took-officehow-is-secretary-mayorkas-still-employed-301658734.html  So, the absolute "best case" is right now we have 16 million in the US (I know I'm discounting the entirety of the FY 2023 crossings, but this is to get an absolute floor on the number of illegals.  I personally believe it is considerably greater than that.  This means that approximately 4.5% of the US population is here illegally.  It is an absolutely basic fact that  terrorists like to hide among a civil population.  Therefore, it should be a basic assumption that a significant number of terrorists/terrorist sympathizers are among this large and unvetted population of illegals.  The neither the Iranians, the Chinese, nor any of our other potential enemies are so stupid as to not take advantage of such a cheap (especially given we pay for many of the illegals), and potentially deniable attack mechanism.  Assuming only 1:100,000 of these illegals is a trained terrorist, that means we have, in the US right now, a minimum of 160 terrorists. I shudder to think what the Iranians (or any other group) could do with such a cadre.

[Redwolf]

Assuming only 1:100,000 of these illegals is a trained terrorist, that means we have, in the US right now, a minimum of 160 terrorists. I shudder to think what the Iranians (or any other group) could do with such a cadre.

But that 1 in 100,000 number is pulled out of thin air. You can't use that as a base to calculate other numbers less pulled out of thin air.

[Jarhead0331]

Assuming only 1:100,000 of these illegals is a trained terrorist, that means we have, in the US right now, a minimum of 160 terrorists. I shudder to think what the Iranians (or any other group) could do with such a cadre.

But that 1 in 100,000 number is pulled out of thin air. You can't use that as a base to calculate other numbers less pulled out of thin air.

Regardless of what the actual number is, its foolish to think that the number is zero. Can't we all agree that the open border is a blatant vulnerability? Our guys need to get it right every single time, while on the other hand, it will only take one mistake that could lead to catastrophic consequences. If only one terrorist gets through, it is one too many. What is the point in arguing over numbers? 

[Tripoli]

Assuming only 1:100,000 of these illegals is a trained terrorist, that means we have, in the US right now, a minimum of 160 terrorists. I shudder to think what the Iranians (or any other group) could do with such a cadre.

But that 1 in 100,000 number is pulled out of thin air. You can't use that as a base to calculate other numbers less pulled out of thin air.

As I acknowledge ("Assuming only 1:100,000 of these illegals ..."in my post, that number is an assumption.  However, it isn't entirely pulled out of thin air.  As I note, terrorists as a matter of routine hide among civilian population.  Therefore, it is an absolutely consistent with foundational TTP that they would do so IRT hiding among illegals coming across our border.  Coincidentally, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/number-people-terror-watchlist-stopped-mexico-us-border-risen-rcna105095 reports that 160 people on the terrorism watchlist have been stopped at our southern border.  WHile there are problems with the terrorism watch list as a proper metric, this number indicates that certainly the bad guys are trying to infiltrate, and that my 1:100,000, while an assumption, is an extremely generous assumption.  As I indicate, it is likely more.  Considerably more.  And, FWIW, I spent 20+ years doing CT work, so while my assumptions are just that, I have some real world experience to back them up.

[Gusington]

There was almost...almost...a catastrophic failure in Times Square with a car bomb ~5 years ago.

[Sir Slash]

It only took 9 to pull-off 9/11. All were in country illegally as I recall. That's why I worry about Sleeper Cells.

[Groggy]

Speaking of sleeper cells, lets not forget the deadliest terrorist attack in US history until 9/11 was committed by a white supremacist domestic terrorist. There are plenty of next generation Timothy McVeighs residing in this country. It could happen again.

[MOS:96B2P]

It only took 9 to pull-off 9/11. All were in country illegally as I recall. That's why I worry about Sleeper Cells.

I think it is fair and reasonable to think that the Mullahs in Iran will continue with their  history of taking advantage of situations to harm the West. The opportunity presented by the US southern border is a situation the Mullahs could attempt to exploit.

Assuming just five people get through the southern border and they have training and direction from the Mullahs, what might they do? What are some targets they would go after?

[Jarhead0331]

Speaking of sleeper cells, lets not forget the deadliest terrorist attack in US history until 9/11 was committed by a white supremacist domestic terrorist. There are plenty of next generation Timothy McVeighs residing in this country. It could happen again.

Don't worry. Fortunately, the FBI and every other federal agency in the country is devoting the vast majority of their resources to saving the world from the grave threat of white conservative males. Thank God for that. 

[Jarhead0331]

What lie will they tell next?