Russia's War Against Ukraine

[MikeGER]

what a mess 

Well this is, between the lines, telling us, USA with Trump as CINC is out of Nato the very moment it will count
and Putin or his personally implemented successor will attack the Baltics and Poland ... and Russian Imperialists will not stop before they reach a nation with nukes, so atm France.
For whatever time and millions of their expandable cannon fodder poor sods (Russians love their childrean too, so poor sods) it will take to reach the Rhein river 

Europe has to cancel the Nuclear spreading treaty

Poland, Germany, the Skandinavians, Spain and Italy need own nukes ASAP!

and esp own SLBMs

... dont have to be expensive nuclear propelled, the new ultra-silent German build subs Dolphin-class, we sold/donated to Israel, which get/got modified there for a nuclear capability, would be enuf.     
         
Well i dont understand Trump, or better the salty hawkish advisers around him.
he is a dealmaker, that is well known. Point taken.

Minerals are good, but whats is more valuable then the blood of American (and Western) soldiers?
we had a nice proxy war going on where we are able to neutralize 1500 Ivans a day and their equipment for the price of only some Dollars and not one drop of blood... Sir, what better deal you ever get, Mr President ?
we could at least have prolonged it until Ukraine runs out of manpower and the will to resist.     
 

[JasonPratt]

Andrew Thornebook's summary report for the Epoch Times this morning (6:15am CST):

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is leaving Washington without signing a rare earths deal with the United States following a volatile exchange with American leadership.
The meeting between Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump at the White House was supposed to be one of resolve and progress, with the two sides agreeing to a deal that would grant the United States access to billions of dollars' worth of rare earth minerals while working toward security guarantees against future Russian aggression for Ukraine.

No deal was signed. Instead the meeting imploded.

Meeting Collapses
Trump and Zelenskyy's conflicting visions became evident as they hashed them out in front of reporters at an Oval Office press engagement.

Throughout the discussion, Zelenskyy indicated his unwillingness to compromise with Russian President Vladimir Putin to reach a cease-fire with Russia. He also repeatedly called for additional military support for Ukraine, including U.S. air defense systems.

Trump downplayed the importance of new security guarantees.

"Security is so easy. That's about 2 percent of the problem. I'm not worried about security. I'm worried about getting the deal done. The security is the easy part," Trump said.

Trump said Ukraine could potentially see additional U.S. weapons shipments, but indicated he's focused on ending the conflict rather than continuing to sustain Kyiv in a fight.

As the talks continued, Vice President JD Vance defended the Trump administration's efforts to negotiate a peace settlement.

Zelenskyy responded by pointing to past unsuccessful attempts at diplomacy, noting a 2019 cease-fire and prisoner exchange agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Zelenskyy said Russia never lived up to the terms of this agreement.

"What kind of diplomacy, JD, you are speaking about?" Zelenskyy asked.

"I'm talking about the kind of diplomacy that's going to end the destruction of your country," Vance replied.

"Mr. President, with respect, I think it's disrespectful for you to come into the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the American media."

After some back and forth between Zelenskyy and Vance about the appropriateness of Zelenskyy's approach in asking the United States for more help, the Ukrainian president suggested that while the conflict may not immediately be a problem for the United States, "you will feel it in the future."

Trump, who appeared to take offense to such wording, then interjected.

"You don't know that," he said. "Don't tell us what we're going to feel. Because you're in no position to dictate that."

As Zelenskyy raised his doubts about the efficacy of diplomacy, Trump again warned that Zelenskyy lacked the leverage to push a tougher negotiating stance.

"You don't have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards," Trump said, amid interruptions from Zelenskyy.

"I'm not playing cards. I'm very serious," the Ukrainian leader interjected.

"You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. You're gambling with World War III," Trump continued. "And what you're doing is very disrespectful to the country—this country—that's backed you far more than a lot of people said [it] should have."

In one of his last comments before White House staff ushered reporters out of the Oval Office, Trump told Zelenskyy, "Your people are very brave, but you're either going to make a deal or we're out."

"If we're out, you'll fight it out," Trump continued. "I don't think it's going to be very pretty, but you'll fight it out."

Trump later took to his Truth social media platform shortly after the meeting to justify the lack of a deal, saying that Zelenskyy disrespected the United States and was "not ready for Peace if America is involved."

Responses
The unprecedented scene sent immediate shockwaves throughout the global diplomatic space, with Republicans and Russian officials praising Trump while Democrats and some European leaders condemned the display.

Dmitry Medvedev, who serves as deputy chair for Russia's national security council, praised what he described as Trump's "fierce scolding" of Zelenskyy.

"Trump told [Zelenskyy] the truth to his face: the Kiev regime is gambling with World War III," Medvedev said in a post on Telegram.

Medvedev added that Moscow would now need to work to cut Western military aid from reaching Ukraine altogether.

Russian lawmaker Andrei Klishas likewise hailed the outcome of the meeting as "a brilliant result."

Leaders from across Europe, however, expressed immediate disappointment in the U.S. administration, with several European leaders calling for a reassessment of U.S.-EU relations.
Kaja Kallas, who serves as the EU's high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said on social media platform X that "the free world needs a new leader."

Italy's conservative Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called for an immediate summit between EU and U.S. leadership, saying that the West's commitment to Ukraine must remain united.

The failure to secure a rare earths deal could have long-term consequences for both the United States and Ukraine.

It means that the United States will not at this time gain access to billions of dollars worth of metals that it needs to lessen its dependence on communist China.

Likewise, it means that Ukraine may lose precious security assistance from the United States, which has provided several advanced weapons systems to Kyiv over the years.

In all, the United States has committed a little less than half of the total international assistance to Ukraine since Russia's full scale invasion in 2022. While the American contribution to Ukraine is less than that of its European partners, however, the quality of the advanced systems the U.S. sends to Ukraine for air defense and other uses mean that its assistance punches above its weight in a dollar-for-dollar comparison.

While it is too early to say what the total fallout from Trump and Zelenskyy's meeting today will be, it is clear that the United States and Europe are entering a new era of relations. One in which European leadership will need to take a larger leadership role while the United States turns its focus elsewhere.

Trump, when leaving the White House on Friday evening, said he wanted an immediate cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia.

For Zelenskyy to be invited back to the White House, "He's got to say, 'I want to make peace,'" Trump said.

Zelenskyy, for his part, thanked the American people for their country's support throughout the war.

He also reiterated his position on a cease-fire agreement, suggesting that he was open to peace, but insisted on securing lasting peace through security guarantees from the United States.

"We are ready for peace, but we have to be in a strong position," Zelenskyy told Fox News' Bret Baier.

[nelmsm]

Man, I felt embarrassed to be an American after yesterday.  Ukraine should show more appreciation?  We are doing nothing but writing checks to buy them weapons while Ukrainians are dying every day defending themselves from a dictator whose country invaded theirs and who still is bombing civilians there. We should be thanking Ukraine for standing up for themselves and making the sacrifices they are making to stop Putin now instead of in Poland, Romania, or the Baltic States where American lives will get committed.   

[JasonPratt]

This exchange which doesn't get quoted much, synchs very well with my larger analysis yesterday:

As the discussions continued, Trump faced questions about whether he was aligning with Putin through his negotiating stance. Trump said he's not trying to align with either leader and that he couldn't expect to condemn Putin's actions and still have productive peace talks with the Russian leader.

"Do you want me to say really terrible things about Putin and then say, 'Hi Vladimir, how are we doing on the deal?' That doesn't work," Trump said.

Of course that didn't stop Trump saying horrible things about PresZ earlier, but again the difference is that Z necessarily has to negotiate with someone, be that the US or the EU (or Canada maybe  ). Putin does not necessarily have to negotiate, so if Trump wants to stop both sides from killing each other, he has to find some way to make it worth Putin's action and significant commitment (otherwise Putin goes back to steamrolling Ukraine the moment he thinks the getting is good).

As I noted yesterday, for both sides this war is regarded as necessary to stave off an existential threat. That's obvious for Ukraine, but it's less obvious for Russia without Russian context. I'm doubtful Trump really understands this yet. Putin really does think that for Russia (and more specifically for Putin!) to survive even some years longer, Ukraine as such (even its people) must die. Ukraine knows that for Ukraine to survive even some years longer, any Russian government which has put itself in the position that Ukraine-must-die to protect itself -- must die (figuratively or literally).

[JudgeDredd]

I'm a bit calmer now...sorry.

It wasn't "blind faith" about Trump that was going to keep me away...it was any rational "justification" for what I witnessed.

JH, I understand your point about what was Zelensky hoping to achieve with his tone and demeanor. After all, we know what gets results from him...fawning. But look at what was happening around him...it reminded me of the school yard when there was a fight and everyone formed a ring and emboldened the bully. Literally laughing and jeering.

Also I've seen a video asking why Z was talking in English. Although it's good, somethings will get misconstrued. For example when he said they were fighting on their own. He wasn't meaning no one was giving them help, which Trump jumped on...he was very likely referring to his soldiers dying alone. He is well aware he's been getting aid so he simply wouldn't be dismissing that aid by saying they were fighting alone.

Honestly though, he was ambushed. I genuinely believe he was taken in there to be humiliated...finished off by kicking him out the White House.

Marjorie Taylor Greene's husband asked him if he even had a suit...and the laughter that went round was simply disgusting.

Think about that just for a second. This man's country has been invaded by an evil dictator with no regard for borders, his people are constantly being bombed, his soldiers are spilling THEIR blood on the battlefield...and he's asked if he's got a suit and everyone laughed. This is the man that refused to leave Ukraine on the eve of the invasion and asked for bullets.

That was just disgusting behaviour from the most powerful office in the world.

I think it's sent a message out to the world that if you're an ally of the current US administration, you can't really depend on them for support when the shit hits the fan.

[JudgeDredd]

I did also see another video saying that the Oval Office need conferences are normally the"nice" side and all the dirty work is done in the background.

Churchill, Stalin and Roosevelt had plenty of disagreements and tough negotiations...but the press got the nice side.

That's also why I believe this was setup to happen.

Either that or Trump and his cronies are so thin skinned, they really ought not to be in charge of the most powerful administration in the world.

[JasonPratt]

To some degree it had to be set up by Trump, I agree, if we take seriously Trump's own claims that he let it happen and keep on going in front of live cameras as transparency for people to see what happens during negotiations. For what other reasons, I don't know.

Still, it was meant as a photo/film op with some statements as expected from both sides. I don't know that T/V provoked Z into setting off the Trump-train reaction, or if they fully expected Z would vocally say on live camera that he's against a cease-fire (regardless of what good reasons he would have for saying so, as a practical matter vs Putin's behavior and policies) and so were planning to pounce on him if/when he did so.

The mockery of Z was disgusting, too, I agree, especially about him not owning a suit: that getup has been his uniform in effect for years now, and everyone knows it or should know it, much moreso fucking respect it. He's taken the risks and barely dodged death more often than Trump rather than noping out and leaving Ukraine to be killed.

I will say, on the other hand, they didn't simply kick Z out: once he made it clear there would be no deal on terms he was not willing to accept (or his government, since after all Z is not in fact a dictator except in the special limited emergency sense of the Roman Republic perhaps), he was escorted from the building like literally every other foreign dignitary usually is. The difference being no one, or not enough high-enough-ranking people, traveled out with him. He had no reason to stay for now, so he left. He wasn't there to camp out overnight in a hallway.

[Pete Dero]

About the suit : he owns them but he promised he wouldn't put one on while his country was at war.

Plus, last time I saw Musk in the White House I don't remember him in a suit .

[Father Ted]

Thing is Trump knows (consciously or subconsciously) that repeating a lie enough will validate it.  He's talking to the American electorate, not Europe.  I believe he understands that it doesn't matter how much those of us across the pond splutter with indignation about the bollocks he spouts, as long as enough Americans go along with it, he's politically bullet-proof.

[Jarhead0331]

Thing is Trump knows (consciously or subconsciously) that repeating a lie enough will validate it.  He's talking to the American electorate, not Europe.  I believe he understands that it doesn't matter how much those of us across the pond splutter with indignation about the bollocks he spouts, as long as enough Americans go along with it, he's politically bullet-proof.

Americans aren't as stupid as you think. The majority of Americans supported Trump because for too long leaders put the interests of outsiders ahead of the interests of the American people and it began to be felt at home through inflation, rising crime, decaying infrastructure, etc. The average American supports Ukraine in its war against Russia, but for better or for worse, they believe that it is Ukraine's war, not our own. And with so many domestic problems that really impact their daily lives, continuing to engage in billion dollar philanthropy is a bridge too far. This may or may not be a shortsighted view, but most people cannot logically justify putting out foreign house fires, while our own home is in flames. This is what i believe the "average" person in the heartland of the country feels.

[JasonPratt]

The average American supports Ukraine in its war against Russia, but for better or for worse, they believe that it is Ukraine's war, not our own. And with so many domestic problems that really impact their daily lives, continuing to engage in billion dollar philanthropy is a bridge too far. This may or may not be a shortsighted view, but most people cannot logically justify putting out foreign house fires, while our own home is in flames. This is what i believe the "average" person in the heartland of the country feels.

I can testify that practically everyone living near me in rural West TN goes for that. The amount of laughing and cheering for Team Trump vs Z at lunch Friday was... interesting.

I should add that most of them would be fine about sending help to stop a genocidal bully (actually genocidal, not political-press usage of "genocidal"), but they regarded Z as being highly arrogant and entitled and needing to be deflated. (That's them, let me clarify, not me; I understand the pressure he's under.) He needs our help, his country needs our help, but (they think) he's dictating that we should supply him to do something he can't really do, in exchange for nothing but more cash from us and an increasing risk of worldwide loss of life on escalation; thus they think he's willing to risk sacrificing the rest of us instead of doing something (they think) will stop the fighting now and save the lives of his own people, too. Z has got to cooperate if he wants to win, but he isn't going to win the way he wants to win and refusing to cooperate with us is ultra-stupid and suicidal and so he deserved even for his own good to be yanked up by his collar and shook around.

This happens to be the Trump/Vance stated position, too, basically. So they were highly gratified to hear Trump and Vance (in somewhat different ways) representing their concerns.

I realize the situation is far more complicated (and even dire) than that, which is why I'm willing to cut President Z a lot of slack (and they aren't); but on the other hand as far as they go (which I don't think is far enough) I don't think they're wrong.

[JasonPratt]

Meanwhile, President Zelensky did in fact issue a Tweet of thanks (I think it was a tweet not FB), anyway on "X" to the United States and everyone here who has been willing to help him and his people survive. I don't have it in front of me, but I'm sure someone can find it. (I'll post it if I run across it again first.)

[Crossroads]

That's also why I believe this was setup to happen.

Either that or Trump and his cronies are so thin skinned, they really ought not to be in charge of the most powerful administration in the world.

Agreement among seasoned diplomats and analysts seems to be it indeed was an ambush.

It was such a strange setup to begin with.

We had president Macron earlier this week in White House, interrupting - if gently - president Trump when he once again went about his 350 billions. He actually touched president Trump's hand for attention, then fact checked him. There wasn't any explosions, vice president Vance did not jump in scolding an actual president, of a friendly nation even, about how he should behave in White House.

I am a simple person. It often is what it seems to be it is. President Trump promised to negotiate "peace", Putin gives him friendly words, while Zelenskyi refuses to sign a ceasefire under Russia's terms.

With having "peace" in parenthesis I refer to this:

Professor (of Russian Politics) Sam Greene of King's College summarizes this in what indeed would be the most simple explanation to this all:

It was abundantly clear that the US administration would be guided by the following "principles" (I use the word hesitantly):
1️⃣🇺🇸 transactional interests trump all others
2️⃣ The velocity of exit from 🇺🇦 trumps the quality of exit
3️⃣ Normalization with🇷🇺 is a priority

Following from these "principles" are 3 logical conclusions:
1️⃣ 🇺🇸 is unperturbed by the geo-strategic consequences of its exit from 🇺🇦
2️⃣ 🇺🇸 feels it has greater leverage over 🇺🇦 than 🇷🇺
3️⃣ the only route to a rapid exit is thus for 🇺🇦 to make maximum concessions

He continues

Again, none of this is new. Leaders in 🇺🇦, 🇬🇧 and🇪🇺have been hoping that they could construct an outcome that would align transatlantic interests, but they have always been hoping against hope.

American analysts tend to underestimate the degree of anger over here in Europe. Seen from here, 🇺🇸 isn't behaving like an angry ally — it's behaving like an adversary, willing to undermine gov'ts in order to achieve zero-sum aims.

But the idea that Europe depends on America for security is entrenched and will die hard. American power is real, and European leaders do not know the extent of Trump's willingness to wield it. (Neither do US leaders, for that matter.)

Leaders gathering in London this weekend will thus be unwilling to risk full confrontation with Washington if it can be avoided, even while seeking to implement a way forward that defends Ukraine and Europe itself.

The problem is, 🇪🇺+🇬🇧 do not know how 🇺🇸 will respond to attempts to keep 🇺🇦 afloat, if those get in the way of 🇺🇸 normalization with 🇷🇺. As a result, 🇪🇺+🇬🇧 face trying to manage escalation on two fronts simultaneously.

As ever since 2014, and more so since 2022, the cost of this escalation management will fall to 🇺🇦, unless 🇪🇺+🇬🇧 can impose a solution that captures the initiative from 🇺🇸.

That doesn't have to mean picking a fight with 🇺🇸, but it will require 🇪🇺+🇬🇧 to build their own format with 🇺🇦, which 🇺🇸 is free to join, rather than seeking seats at the 🇺🇸/🇷🇺 table.

The question this weekend, then, is whether European leaders focus on a Europe-led process, or whether the discussion remains one of the imperative of working with Washington. None of this is a foregone conclusion.

Edit: Regarding the degree of anger here in Europe per above, here is a rather seething commentary by The Guardian: How JD Vance emerged as the chief saboteur of the transatlantic alliance

[Pete Dero]

That's also why I believe this was setup to happen.

Either that or Trump and his cronies are so thin skinned, they really ought not to be in charge of the most powerful administration in the world.

Agreement among seasoned diplomats and analysts seems to be it indeed was an ambush.

This 'ambush' was also predicted on Russian state TV the day before the meeting.

'Experts' on Russian TV also claimed Russia doesn't need (or want) peace.

https://cepa.org/article/excitement-grows-among-russias-propagandists/
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-lawmaker-predicted-the-trump-vance-ambush-of-zelensky/

Now, what if the Trump administration knew no deal could be made with Russia.
Remember, we have not heard anything yet about any concessions that Russia would be willing to make.
Rather than admitting this, why not put on the show we have watched and blame the failure on Zelensky.

Of course I have no proof of this but what I have seen happening in the last few days made me think of this possibility.

Also, last night on Russian TV they came to their conclusion that now it is clear Ukraine doesn't want peace, the trade sanctions on Russia should be lifted.
They could get everything they want without even having to make a deal.

[Toonces]

From Tom Nichols, Professor Emeritus from the U.S. Naval War College, on The Atlantic:

Leave aside, if only for a moment, the utter boorishness with which President Donald Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance treated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House today. Also leave aside the spectacle of American leaders publicly pummeling a friend as if he were an enemy. All of the ghastliness inflicted on Zelensky today should not obscure the geopolitical reality of what just happened: The president of the United States ambushed a loyal ally, presumably so that he can soon make a deal with the dictator of Russia to sell out a European nation fighting for its very existence.
...
The sheer rudeness shown to a foreign guest and friend of the United States was (to use a word) deplorable as a matter of manners and grace, but worse, Trump and Vance acted like a couple of online Kremlin sock puppets instead of American leaders. They pushed talking points that they either knew or should have known were wrong. Even if Zelensky were as fluent and capable in English as Winston Churchill, he would never have been able to rebut the flood of falsehoods. No, the U.S. has not given Ukraine $350 billion; yes, Zelensky has repeatedly expressed his thanks to America and to Trump; no, Zelensky was not attacking the administration. The Ukrainian leader did his best to stand up to the bullying, but Trump and Vance were playing to the cameras and the MAGA gallery at home.
...
Today's meeting and America's shameful vote in the United Nations on Monday confirmed that the United States is now aligned with Russia and against Ukraine, Europe, and most of the planet. I felt physically sick watching the president of the United States yell at a brave ally, fulminating in the Oval Office as if he were an addled old man shaking his fist at a television. Zelensky has endured tragedies, and risked his life, in ways that men such as Trump and Vance cannot imagine. (Vance served as a public-relations officer in the most powerful military in the world; he has never had to huddle in a bunker during a Russian bombardment.) I am ashamed for my nation; even if Congress acts to support and aid Ukraine, it cannot restore the American honor lost today.
...
But no matter how disgusted anyone might be at Trump and Vance's behavior, the strategic reality is that this meeting is a catastrophe for the United States and the free world. America's alliances are now in danger, and should be: Trump is openly, and gleefully, betraying everything America has tried to defend since the defeat of the Axis 80 years ago. The entire international order of peace and security is now in danger, as Russian autocrats, after slaughtering innocent people for three years, look forward to enjoying the spoils of their invasion instead of standing trial for their crimes. (Shortly after Trump dismissed Zelensky from the White House, Putin's homunculus, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, posted on X: "The insolent pig finally got a proper slap down in the Oval Office.")

Friday, February 28, 2025, will go into the history books as one of the grimmest days in American diplomacy, the beginning of a long-term disaster that every American, every U.S. ally, and anyone who cares about the future of democracy will have to endure. With the White House's betrayal of Ukraine capping a month of authoritarian chaos in America, Putin, along with other dictators around the world, can finally look at Trump with confidence and think: one of us.

Pretty much exactly how I feel.  I'm ashamed to be an American and be in any way associated with what this administration represents.  The average MAGA is an absolute idiot, with his pickup truck with the obligatory American flag decal (pledge of allegiance or constitution quote optional), dashboard MAGA hat, and belligerent attitude.  Absolutely no idea of anything beyond Fox News talking points. 

These people are NOT what America and Americans represent.  But, when I travel overseas, I am associated with these pathetic individuals by virtue of simply being American.  It's disgusting.  I spent my entire adult life serving this country, still serve it, and I can't believe my fellow Americans are not only sitting by and watching the destruction of our democracy, but actually applauding it.  It is, truly, unbelievable.