Israel vs Iran kicks off 6-12-25 (CST)

[JasonPratt]

The Enforcer puts together a summary of Iranian war action from last night through this afternoon (CST).

[JasonPratt]

And today's summary.

With a map this time for links (based on their live show that ended a few minutes ago if I understand correctly.)

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?entry=yt&mid=15Ru5YaE58faA-Ay7fuBefPV4mmpGJEA&ll=11.723405742420047%2C21.719499779481907&z=2

The rumor at the moment (I regard it currently as a rumor), is that the IDF hit Aya's bunker, which the Enforcer discusses near the beginning of his live show tonight. Linking to that show for reference:

[JasonPratt]

Quick military news recap from the Enforcer for past 24 hours:

Not enough dakka at Diego Garcia yet, more B2s with heavy ordinance on the way across the Pacific (or possibly to Guam. Or possibly to form up with a strike package.)

[JasonPratt]

Preston Stewart analyzes the implications for the new B2s going west.

[Redwolf]

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250619-us-military-aircraft-no-longer-visible-at-base-in-qatar-satellite-images

US military aircraft no longer visible at base in Qatar: satellite images
Washington (AFP) – Dozens of US military aircraft are no longer on the tarmac at a major US base in Qatar, satellite images show -- a possible move to shield them from eventual Iranian air strikes, as Washington weighs whether to intervene in Tehran's conflict with Israel.

[W8taminute]

Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear power plants are gone.   

The next few days should get pretty hot. 

[JasonPratt]

Evidently most of our aircraft were sent up to provide a secure air corridor for the bomber group which struck Fordow (not that they really needed it but why give the Iranians a chance to get lucky). Unsure yet if the group was who left the US earlier, or if this is something from Diego.

The other two sites were saturated with Hellfires Tomahawks (I think I heard the number 38?) shot from subs in the Gulf. (Updated with correction from Mom, she heard "Tomahawks" and she doesn't know Hellfire would be another choice -- which from subs they wouldn't be, I should have realized my brain had edited the term wrong. Don't know why.)

[JasonPratt]

At the moment, Israeli intel says the Ayatollah hasn't been heard from in a few days, including for sending orders to his people. Hiding hard or injured or y'know.

Iran's gov sent a press release pretending(?) that the three struck sites had been fully pre-evacuated already, no casualties. The implication would be that they smuggled out some fissible material for a dirty bomb/warhead.

Bunch of other airstrikes went off around Iran at the same time we were smiting the enrichment sites. US hasn't (yet?) claimed responsibility for those; probably Israelis again.

[JasonPratt]

OpenSourceIntel says the New York Times claims they know the Ayatollah has bunkered up somewhere tonight to consider successors in case he's killed. That could also be pre-spin I suppose: i.e. he got got back on Thursday or Friday whenever that bunker near Tehran was hit, and now the government is pretending he's still around to choose his successor. Depends on the NYT's sources.

[al_infierno]

I'm out of the loop. Can someone explain to me why exactly the US has seemingly gotten dragged into a no-shit shooting war with Iran?

[Redwolf]

I'm out of the loop. Can someone explain to me why exactly the US has seemingly gotten dragged into a no-shit shooting war with Iran?

Opportunity.

Take out of Iran nuclear sites while air defenses are down and the world is already used to bombs falling on Iran.

[steve58]

Some before/after photos in these articles.  Not too much to see above ground (from my untrained eye), other than several nice MOP holes and ground subsidence in areas.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/22/how-effective-was-the-us-attack-on-irans-nuclear-sites-a-visual-guide

https://nypost.com/2025/06/22/world-news/first-satellite-images-of-fordow-after-us-bunker-buster-bomb-strike-show-extensive-damage/

[JasonPratt]

Essentially because to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear device (including material for a dirty bomb, to begin with), those places needed more firepower dropped on them than Israel has handy right now. President Trump has been extremely consistent since long before he came down the escalator (and also that day moments after he came down) that Iran going nuclear would wildly destabilize the area, and be a threat to the entire world: they themselves have consistently said if they get a nuke they're going to use them as soon as they can, first on Israel, and keep on doing it whenever strategically feasible.

When someone who declares themselves a mortal enemy of anyone not under their rulership (including their fellow co-religionists by the way) says they plan to nuke their enemies if they ever get nukes; and they have shown repeatedly they mean to kill their enemies, racking up a count of around 100K over the past ten years already, then it's naive to believe they'll suddenly have a come-to-Jesus moment after getting nukes.

We've been trying all the softer methods for a couple of decades now to stop the nuke development. (Including some hard softer methods like Israel sickling various scientists.) It wasn't working. There was no evidence it was going to work better in the near future. There was lots of evidence it was not going to work any better in the near future.

Trump gave them 60 days to show they are stopping enrichment beyond what's necessary for civilian operation; they refused to do so; they continued mouthing off about using nukes whenever they could; they were setting up to zorch Israel with conventional rockets and a knock-on-all-doors border raid (at least so far as Mossad says -- the missiles were real, border raid hasn't happened); Israel pre-emptively hit them; Iran shot the rockets anyway; Iran refused to back down on the nuclear option even after Israel started removing pieces of nuclear capability, and bragged openly they still have the power to go nuclear soon thanks especially to their super-dug-in site...

...day 61, our bombs hit the dug-in site and Tomahawks hellfire up the other two sites.

The principal has been: we believe them when they say they plan to nuke their enemies, especially the little Satan (Israel) and the great Satan (US). After x-day, we will only know less about what how far they can go with that until their bomb(s) blasts. That's the hump day. Go then.

The world was always going to be more dangerous after the hump, thanks to Iran's own publicly claimed plans. The US was the only one with the capability to choose for the world to be less-more-dangerous instead of more-more-dangerous. The Commander in Chief chose less-more-dangerous and pulled the trigger.

Some of that can be debated, some of it not so much. But that's how we got here.

[al_infierno]

Thanks for the clarifications.  Right now most of the info I've seen is scattered, angry rants across social media.  I suspect a lot of it comes from people who would agree that the US and Israel are "Satans" that need to be destroyed.  (Ironically, a lot of them are people benefiting greatly from living in America, but I digress.)

[Anguille]

Angry rants don't come out of the blue as there are valid points also against the attacks.

As far as i know, there wasn't any proof that Iran was making a bomb (Top US intelligence).

Iran has never officially said it would use a nuclear weapon immediately if acquired. That claim is often based on misinterpreted or decontextualized rhetoric. Even Iran's Supreme Leader has issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons — whether we trust it or not, it shapes Iran's official stance.

The JCPOA was working. Between 2015 and 2018, the IAEA repeatedly confirmed Iran's compliance. The breakdown began with the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, not because Iran cheated.

A preemptive strike has no solid legal basis under international law unless there's an imminent threat. That's why even past Israeli strikes (Osirak, Syria) were never officially claimed at the time.

Bombing Iran might backfire. It could accelerate their nuclear program underground, strengthen hardliners, and provoke regional chaos — without guaranteeing success.