The Next Flashpoint ?

[Steelgrave]

More reading on the subject:  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444184704577587483914661256.html

[LongBlade]

They have the Japanese Self Defense Force.  It's not considered a "full time" army, navy, air force.  The total force is a couple hundred thousand.

Wake that giant and let me know how things look.

[MIGMaster]

I've heard that due to toilet training practices in early life the Japanese become extemely fierce warriors  ;)

[W8taminute]

Steelgrave good article.  I was particularly interested in the following quotes from the article which made my blood boil a little:

...the Chinese government responded angrily, warning that State Department officials had "confounded right and wrong, and sent a seriously wrong message." The People's Daily, a quasi-official publication, accused the U.S. of "fanning the flames and provoking division, deliberately creating antagonism with China." Its overseas edition said it was time for the U.S. to "shut up."

It's time for the U.S. to 'shut up'?   >:(

Due to China's growing power in the region, by taking no position Washington has by default become an enabler of China's ever more aggressive acts.

Thank you you farging idiot in the white house and all your communists currently in our government!   >:(

History teaches us that when unilateral acts of aggression go unanswered, the bad news never gets better with age. Nowhere is this cycle more apparent than in the alternating power shifts in East Asia. As historian Barbara Tuchman noted in her biography of U.S. Army Gen. Joseph Stillwell, it was China's plea for U.S. and League of Nations support that went unanswered following Japan's 1931 invasion of Manchuria, a neglect that "brewed the acid of appeasement that . . . opened the decade of descent to war" in Asia and beyond.

While America's attention is distracted by the presidential campaign, all of East Asia is watching what the U.S. will do about Chinese actions in the South China Sea. They know a test when they see one. They are waiting to see whether America will live up to its uncomfortable but necessary role as the true guarantor of stability in East Asia, or whether the region will again be dominated by belligerence and intimidation.

You gotta love Barbara Tuchman.  <mentally gives her the thumbs up sign>

[Centurion40]

Anyone has a sense of what China's ability currently is to extend force and land amphibious assault troops?  Could they pose a real threat to Japanese controlled islands?

Hmm, the Japan Maritime Self Defence Force has:

4 Helicopter Destroyers



8 Guided Missile Destroyers



30 Destroyers



6 Destroyer Escorts



16 Submarines



29 Minesweepers



6 Patrol Boats



6 Landing Ships



and 19 other landing craft



Along with auxiliary and support ships

[Centurion40]

The Chinese have A LOT more.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy

[besilarius]

I think that the Japanese navy has a slight technical edge, but a much greater lead in actual operations.
Until quite recently the Chinese rarely went out for very long, and were primarily a coastal force.
This is changing, and they will close the operational gap.  How long that will take is hard to say.
Their participation in the Somali piracy patrols may be quite the wake up call for the force.

[Steelgrave]

Well, the other thing to consider is that in the case of a full-blown naval conflict, America is not going to sit idly by while the Japanese navy is dismantled. I don't think that even Obama would let that happen. Now, a smaller skirmish or two....thats more of a wild card imho.

[Capn Darwin]

My concern would be the hundreds of anti-ship missile carrying aircraft.

[MetalDog]

China is the big fish in the small pond.  If their aggressive rhetoric becomes action, they can take their objectives fairly easily before we can get in there.  The Phillipines aren't the home of a mighty American presence anymore.  As a matter of fact, I'm not sure if we have any significant forces any closer than Hawaii or Afghanistan.

[Bison]

I think the mistake is to view China actions as if they would happen without international support.  You have a strong relationship with Iran.  Sock puppet North Korea.  And a warming relationship with Russia.  There is enough testing of American and allied resolve by all of these nations alone to cause concern. 

[LongBlade]

China is the big fish in the small pond.  If their aggressive rhetoric becomes action, they can take their objectives fairly easily before we can get in there.  The Phillipines aren't the home of a mighty American presence anymore.  As a matter of fact, I'm not sure if we have any significant forces any closer than Hawaii or Afghanistan.

I know there's a website around here somewhere that shows where US aircraft carriers are currently serving - at least approximately.

Couldn't find it, but that doesn't matter.

Here's a list of the weight of US carriers vice all the other players. It isn't to say that China couldn't make things interesting for us for a while, but as of today we have control of the seas. Period.

There isn't a straight image to hijack - you'll have to hit the page directly to see the graphic.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/carriers.htm

[MetalDog]

I have no doubt of the capability of the U.S. military.  Ultimately, I think, we would triumph in a Sino-American clash.  It's a matter of getting there quick enough, with enough force to do the job, to make China cough up what they have taken.

Now, if you subscribe to the dim picture Bison paints above, things would get hairy fast.  Iran, the Norks AND Russia at China's side?  How fast would the rest of the world move to stand at OUR side?  All the bad blood and ill will our (occasionally) ham handed international diplomacy has stirred up, would that be put to the side?  Or would the rest of the world sit out and watch us go down? 

I have to imagine the former.  If we go, who's next?  Would everyone be happy to kow tow to China/Russia/Iran?  Ultimately, I think that triumverate would fail due to internal pressure, but that's a scary grouping, even for us.

[LongBlade]

Those are all good points.

It's my view that those guys are happy to play spoiler to US interests but I'm not sure they're ready to hop in bed with each other and seal the deal.

I could be wrong, but that's my view.

[MIGMaster]

I think the biggest difference may be attitude - the Japanese pushed the Chinese around for a long time before WWII.... but then again since Japan is heavily influenced by Westernized culture there may not be that agressive attitude there anymore.... moderation seems to be the prevailing tradition now.