The Next Flashpoint ?

[Centurion40]

China is the big fish in the small pond.  If their aggressive rhetoric becomes action, they can take their objectives fairly easily before we can get in there.  The Phillipines aren't the home of a mighty American presence anymore.  As a matter of fact, I'm not sure if we have any significant forces any closer than Hawaii or Afghanistan.

I'd think that the 7th fleet, along with the Japanese, would give them a headache.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._7th_Fleet

[GDS_Starfury]

Well Japan might want a real military before pissing in China's Cheerios too often.   Of course they (like 3/4 of the freaking "free" world) are depending on American intervention in case of a real conflict.

I wouldnt disregard the Japanese military at all.

[Windigo]

I have no doubt of the capability of the U.S. military.  Ultimately, I think, we would triumph in a Sino-American clash.  It's a matter of getting there quick enough, with enough force to do the job, to make China cough up what they have taken.

Now, if you subscribe to the dim picture Bison paints above, things would get hairy fast.  Iran, the Norks AND Russia at China's side?  How fast would the rest of the world move to stand at OUR side?  All the bad blood and ill will our (occasionally) ham handed international diplomacy has stirred up, would that be put to the side?  Or would the rest of the world sit out and watch us go down? 

I have to imagine the former.  If we go, who's next?  Would everyone be happy to kow tow to China/Russia/Iran?  Ultimately, I think that triumverate would fail due to internal pressure, but that's a scary grouping, even for us.

Iran part of a godless triad???
China and Russia cooperating?

Russia will tidy things up around her borders before doing anythings stupid like backing China over a relatively insignificant 'bit of dirt'

[LongBlade]

I have no doubt of the capability of the U.S. military.  Ultimately, I think, we would triumph in a Sino-American clash.  It's a matter of getting there quick enough, with enough force to do the job, to make China cough up what they have taken.

Now, if you subscribe to the dim picture Bison paints above, things would get hairy fast.  Iran, the Norks AND Russia at China's side?  How fast would the rest of the world move to stand at OUR side?  All the bad blood and ill will our (occasionally) ham handed international diplomacy has stirred up, would that be put to the side?  Or would the rest of the world sit out and watch us go down? 

I have to imagine the former.  If we go, who's next?  Would everyone be happy to kow tow to China/Russia/Iran?  Ultimately, I think that triumverate would fail due to internal pressure, but that's a scary grouping, even for us.

Iran part of a godless triad???
China and Russia cooperating?

Russia will tidy things up around her borders before doing anythings stupid like backing China over a relatively insignificant 'bit of dirt'

Well said.

[GDS_Starfury]

iran cant do a thing to help China.  any of you notice whats between the two?
Russia cant do a damn thing for the next few decades due to the state of its economy and military.
north korea is a sideshow at best.  if push came to shove South Korea would be facing reunification
a hell of a lot sooner then it wants to. 
China doesnt have the power projection to retake Tiawan let alone screw with Japan.
the only thing China has in its pocket is the worlds debt and a false economy.
the second that ballon goes up we dont owe them a frikin dime and they know it.
they also know that they cant win.

[Windigo]

IMO they have more than enough horsepower to take the whole internet and all the e-commerce down with it, not to mention all the infrastructure PLC (Programmable Logic Circuits) control away from us... e.g., Israel's cyber attack on Iran's centrifuges.... that'd fuck us up plenty so we'd not get a free pass bombing China back to the Ming dynasty era

[Pining]

The Chinese need more than one carrier:

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20120521/DEFREG03/305210003/China-Build-2-More-Aircraft-Carriers-Taiwan

Then maybe even more, up to six:

http://wareye.com/china-starts-building-the-first-aircraft-carrier-equipped-with-j-15-carrier-based-fighters

Although they will only be as good as their aircraft:

http://defensetech.org/2012/04/25/how-effective-will-chinas-carrier-based-fighters-be/

Though never forget other defensive options:

http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2012/07/chinas-df-21d-missile-is-the-worlds-first-one-shot-aircraft-carrier-killer/

[GDS_Starfury]

there is no one shot carrier killer except a nuke.
Im really not prepared to put much faith in that missile working as advertised either.

[mirth]

there is no one shot carrier killer except a nuke.
Im really not prepared to put much faith in that missile working as advertised either.

+1 it's entirely theoretical. I don't know of a single successful test that shows the Chinese could hit a carrier-sized target with a conventional ballistic missile payload.

[LongBlade]

+1 it's entirely theoretical. I don't know of a single successful test that shows the Chinese could hit a carrier

Fixed that for ya ;)

[mirth]

Thanks, LB. I was giving them the benefit of the doubt that at least some of their anti-ship missiles work. Not that they'd actually get through the Aegis defenses.  :P

[LongBlade]

Not that they'd actually get through the Aegis defenses.  :P

That's really what I was thinking. I'm sure their stuff works. I'm not sure it is ready to take on the USN's entire bag of tricks.

[Staggerwing]

It would depend on how fast the ballistic missile was traveling at approach. It's a safe bet that it would be many times faster than a sea skimmer or other short range shipkiller. Even aegis could have trouble tracking something traveling two miles a second.

[Barthheart]

It would depend on how fast the ballistic missile was traveling at approach. It's a safe bet that it would be many times faster than a sea skimmer or other short range shipkiller. Even aegis could have trouble tracking something traveling two miles a second.

Yeah, but are ballistic missles "guided" in anyway? "Ballistic Missile" implies fired on a trajectory and hit what's on the end of the ballistic path. If not then just detect and move your carrrier....  ???

[mirth]

It would depend on how fast the ballistic missile was traveling at approach. It's a safe bet that it would be many times faster than a sea skimmer or other short range shipkiller. Even aegis could have trouble tracking something traveling two miles a second.

We have a number of Aegis ships configured for ballistic missile defense. The Japanese have a few of their's set up for it as well. I think it's a fairly proven system with a number of successful tests.