New topic for reporting news and analysis - and only news & analysis - from the conflict in the Ukraine.
Trolling and / or inciting flame wars in this thread will result in vacations. And not the "all expenses paid / won it on a game show" kind.
Putin's calling for the separatists to postpone their planned vote for May 11.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101620753
QuoteTomorrow we will discuss that at the people's assembly," Denis Pushilin, a leader of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic, told Reuters. "We have the utmost respect for president Putin. If he considers that necessary, we will of course discuss it.
Meet the beneficiaries of the crisis in Ukraine
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101646149
Quote from: OJsDad on May 07, 2014, 10:08:11 AM
Putin's calling for the separatists to postpone their planned vote for May 11.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101620753
QuoteTomorrow we will discuss that at the people's assembly," Denis Pushilin, a leader of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic, told Reuters. "We have the utmost respect for president Putin. If he considers that necessary, we will of course discuss it.
And saying the troops are pulling from the border. If true he is getting cold feet with the a more robust response from Ukraine.
Ukrainians should have fought in Crimea, they would have still had possession. Russkies only move if they are certain of little or no resistance.
Russian dependence on Ukrainian manufacturing for military parts / equipment
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/dd4fda8cf09f
seems Russia went trolling off the west coast with a Bear today.
I would not want that flight plan if I was that crew.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 07, 2014, 10:33:57 PM
seems Russia went trolling off the west coast with a Bear today.
I would not want that flight plan if I was that crew.
You'll need to do better than that, you tool of the Western fascist propaganda machine.
sorry Comrade, here are my papers:
http://www.oafnation.com/domestic/2014/5/7/russian-aircraft-fly-california-coast-as-show-of-force
i still think hes hoping for one to get shot down so he can justify later actions
I for one as a Tree-hugging Liberal, think the fun and games of border testing is good for both sides. Yes accidents happen, but they are so infrequent as to atest to the skills of all involved
my take on Russia is that they're the out of shape fat kid thats got a big mouth and has little except playing the bully. all you need is one person to walk up and smack it in the mouth. I have NOT been in many altercations because the first time that hand pushed my shoulder I punched the person square in the middle region between the nose and upper lip. thats Russian rules.
bitch cant be a pimp if you cant slap a hoe.
^^^ sig worthy.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 08, 2014, 11:17:56 PM
my take on Russia is that they're the out of shape fat kid thats got a big mouth and has little except playing the bully. all you need is one person to walk up and smack it in the mouth. I have NOT been in many altercations because the first time that hand pushed my shoulder I punched the person square in the middle region between the nose and upper lip. thats Russian rules.
bitch cant be a pimp if you cant slap a hoe.
^^^ sig worthy.
Agree
Apparently in the Crimean "referendum" only about 15% of the population took part. So even though it was illegel it was also "lost" by the Russians. I hope Ukraine start an uncovetional natioanl liberation war against the occupation.
Apparently Star & Mirth are now manning the barricades in Ukraine
(https://scontent-a-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/t31.0-8/p180x540/10358952_776709992362154_2026566733563186295_o.jpg)
^ It took me a second, but...WTF? ???
Hey, Russophiles just wanna have fun.
When there's no one else to help and if you can find them, maybe you can hire the T&A team
^HAHAHA!
Sorry. That's mine. I'll put it away.
Quote from: mirth on May 09, 2014, 06:59:08 PM
When there's no one else to help and if you can find them, maybe you can hire the T&A team
...And sigged. You and
Star oughtta have business cards made. 8)
^Crap, I got bumped. Better bring out my A game. And maybe the T&A game, if necessary.
We need forum code for an upward scroll. Then we can have as many quotes in our siggies as we want.
Quote from: Gusington on May 10, 2014, 01:43:37 PM
^Crap, I got bumped. Better bring out my A game. And maybe the T&A game, if necessary.
Well (part of) the problem is that *everyone* in this joint is generally bringing their A game. What's more astonishing is that I hadn't gotten around to adding anything new til now. :P
Seriously, if I weren't such a lazy mo-fo (and if I'd thought of it at the time), I'd have been copying down all these great quotes you guys have been coming up with over the last decade and saving them on a flash drive, or started a thread, or something. There's some crazy awesome/hilarious material there!
Quote from: Staggerwing on May 10, 2014, 01:50:32 PM
We need forum code for an upward scroll. Then we can have as many quotes in our siggies as we want.
Would love to have that sort of feature if it were reasonably feasible. I keep my sig lines to just five at a time so as to keep it from becoming overly obnoxious. ::)
<snip>
he's a cut above the rest.
I was playing around trying to see if I could get a BBcode work for scrolling text. I was using the preview button, but accidentally hit post instead. There is code for a scrolling text box, but it probably has to be enabled administratively. It may not even be part of this particular forum software.
do you mean this scrolling text?
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 11, 2014, 01:07:39 PM
do you mean this scrolling text?
Vertical scrolling, not horizontal. I saw that "move" tag.
I suppose one could just make an animated gif with lines of text scrolling up and make the background color match the forum background.
Oooooooo shiny BBCode.... also, registering for comment tracking....
OMGBBQ!! -- it works on sigs, too! -- horizontally... YOU MAY ONLY ACCESS MY AAR IF YOU HAVE THE SKILZ TO BE WORTHY!!!
I foresee potential problems with clogging the page-code by ticker-taping text, through multiple posts by {move}-ing sigs. Testing.
The "People's Republic of Donetsk" has asked to join Russia:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia
Quote from: mirth on May 12, 2014, 03:44:39 PM
The "People's Republic of Donetsk" has asked to join Russia:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia)
At the bottom of that page there is this gem
http://latest.com/2014/03/rumsfeld-claims-a-trained-ape-is-better-than-president-obama/?utm_source=Outbrain_Geo (http://latest.com/2014/03/rumsfeld-claims-a-trained-ape-is-better-than-president-obama/?utm_source=Outbrain_Geo)
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 12, 2014, 08:00:10 PM
Quote from: mirth on May 12, 2014, 03:44:39 PM
The "People's Republic of Donetsk" has asked to join Russia:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia)
At the bottom of that page there is this gem
http://latest.com/2014/03/rumsfeld-claims-a-trained-ape-is-better-than-president-obama/?utm_source=Outbrain_Geo (http://latest.com/2014/03/rumsfeld-claims-a-trained-ape-is-better-than-president-obama/?utm_source=Outbrain_Geo)
That's special. So this:
Quote"This administration, the White House and the State Department, have failed to get a status of forces agreement. A trained ape could get a status of forces agreement. It does not take a genius."
Equals this:
QuoteRumsfeld Claims a Trained Ape is Better Than President Obama
Makes sense :o
HAHAHA oh dear.
Just to make sure we don't get too derailed in this thread, please shift any further commentary of apes, Presidential, formerly Secretarial, or otherwise, to some other thread in RPFW. Tenjooberrymud!
Quote from: mirth on May 12, 2014, 03:44:39 PM
The "People's Republic of Donetsk" has asked to join Russia:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/12/ukraine-crisis-donetsk-region-asks-join-russia
Ukrainians need to do their version of Sherman March to the Sea. In their case it would be from Sloviansk to Mariupol.
6 Ukrainian troops killed:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/13/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_bn2
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117692/fascism-returns-ukraine
Irony: "Russians" in eastern Ukraine protesting to join a country where such protests are illegal; demanding a referendum to join a country where such referendums are not allowed.
QuoteThe head of Russia's space program says Moscow will reject the United States' request to use the International Space Station beyond 2020 – the latest twist in a standoff between the two countries over the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who leads Russia's defense industry, made the announcement Tuesday. He also said Russia will block Washington from using Russian-made rocket engines to launch military satellites, according to Reuters.
The moves come after the U.S. slapped sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin's allies -- who include Rogozin -- for Russia's intervention in Ukraine. The U.S. also denied export licenses for high-tech items that could aid Russia's military.
"These sanctions are out of place and inappropriate," Rogozin said at a news conference Tuesday. "We have enough of our own problems."
Russia supplies NK-33 and RD-180 rocket engines to the U.S.
"We are ready to deliver these engines but on one condition -- that they will not be used to launch military satellites," Rogozin said.
A Kremlin-controlled firm that Rogozin oversees produces and supplies the RD-180 engine to American defense contractors.
The United Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture of Boeing and Lockheed-Martin which sub-contracts with the Kremlin-controlled firm for the engines, said Tuesday that it is "hopeful that our two nations will engage in productive conversations over the coming months that will resolve the matter quickly."
"ULA and our Department of Defense customers have always prepared contingency plans in the event of a supply disruption," Jessica Rye, a spokesperson for the ULA, told Fox News in a statement.
After the sanctions were announced, Rogozin took to Twitter last month and said Russia would retaliate against the U.S.
"I propose that the United States delivers its astronauts to the ISS with the help of a trampoline," he added.
The U.S. wants to keep the ISS in use until at least 2024, according to Reuters. But as of now, Russian Soyuz spacecraft are the only way American astronauts can get to the ISS. NASA is working to restore U.S. transport to the station by 2017.
Rogozin said Russia is planning changes to its space industry after 2020 and plans to divert money and resources to "a project with more prospects".
He also suggested that Russia could use the station without cooperation from the U.S.
"The Russian segment can exist independently from the American one," Rogozin said. "The U.S. one cannot."
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/05/13/russia-casts-doubt-on-us-future-with-iss-over-ukraine-sanctions/?intcmp=latestnews
I am surprised it took this long for these threats to be made.
QuoteHe also suggested that Russia could use the station without cooperation from the U.S.
"The Russian segment can exist independently from the American one," Rogozin said. "The U.S. one cannot."
yeah about that statement:
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.industrytap.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F03%2F972x695xISS_international_participation.png.pagespeed.ic.rzpejEzzsp.png&hash=3fe7370550c540c4c0276bb44f55a47707d240a1)
Are their rockets so much better? Why are they needed? I thought France made rockets to launch from S America.
My guess is because Russia subsidized to keep the costs down, undercutting the ESA and private contractors, thus both staying relevant as a nation and keeping their aerospace industry from having nothing to do and withering on the vine.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 14, 2014, 07:07:16 PM
Are their rockets so much better? Why are they needed? I thought France made rockets to launch from S America.
the problem is how NASA's been defunded. :tickedoff:
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2014, 10:01:46 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 14, 2014, 07:07:16 PM
Are their rockets so much better? Why are they needed? I thought France made rockets to launch from S America.
the problem is how NASA's been defunded. :tickedoff:
I say we transfer the entire DEA budget to NASA.
I'm fine with that.
Me too. I hate when I agree with pawelj.
Quote from: Gusington on May 15, 2014, 09:03:58 PM
Me too. I hate when I agree with pawelj.
O0
That's hardly a rocket science...Oh, wait..
Interesting developments in Marupol:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/world/europe/ukraine-workers-take-to-streets-to-calm-Mariupol.html?emc=edit_th_20140516&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=62772518&_r=0# (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/16/world/europe/ukraine-workers-take-to-streets-to-calm-Mariupol.html?emc=edit_th_20140516&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=62772518&_r=0#)
"At work, you have to do what the factory demands."
Aint that the truth.
Quote from: pawelj on May 15, 2014, 07:56:27 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 14, 2014, 10:01:46 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 14, 2014, 07:07:16 PM
Are their rockets so much better? Why are they needed? I thought France made rockets to launch from S America.
the problem is how NASA's been defunded. :tickedoff:
I say we transfer the entire DEA budget to NASA.
NASA could then have it's own paramilitary force to send into space and take the space station back C:-)
Quote from: Gusington on May 16, 2014, 08:48:27 AM
"At work, you have to do what the factory demands."
Aint that the truth.
It's that. But more importantly if they separate from Ukraine they can kiss their jobs good bye, because no-one will buy they stuff.
I think maybe the wheels are coming off the Putin wagon. Ukraine will still need to level Sloviansk.
The Constellation program needs to be brought back online. It ain't cheap, but dammit, the future is up there, not down here.
excellent article about lessons learned from Crimea, and the lessons that can't be drawn from Crimea
http://warontherocks.com/2014/05/crimea-taught-us-a-lesson-but-not-about-how-the-russian-military-fights/
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on May 16, 2014, 01:18:27 PM
The Constellation program needs to be brought back online. It ain't cheap, but dammit, the future is up out there, not down here.
Oy vey.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/30/world/europe/rebels-shoot-military-helicopter.html?hp&_r=0
Frontline this week chronicled both the Ukrainian and Syrian conflicts.
It really showed how f'ed-up Ukraine is on both sides. It showed how both sides are corrupt and fear-mongering. The Ukrainian nationalists are playing on fears that Putin will absorb all of Ukraine back into Russia, and that he is deliberately interfering into the affairs of Ukraine (which he certainly appears to be doing). They play on fears that the Ukrainian identity will be swallowed by the Russian behemoth.
The pro-Russians are playing on fears that the regime in Kiev is ultra-nationalist and fascist like the Nazis (and it certainly appears that some are exactly that). That they plan to ethnically cleanse the Russians out of Ukraine, and that they are every bit as bad as the Nazi-fascists of WWII. It certainly appears as if Russian agent provocateurs are actively inciting fears, and paying local pro-Russian thugs to intimidate and fight/murder pro-Ukrainian sympathizers.
FUBAR.
Hard to pick a good guy.
Quote from: Gusington on May 29, 2014, 03:50:01 PM
Hard to pick a good guy.
The people that just want to live their lives without retarded politicians screwing things up?
All ~7 billion of us?
Pretty much, yeah. :-\
It's hard for me to get a read on this situation...are the Russians truly backing off or are they still preparing to invade?
That seems to largely depend on what Putin's Ouija board tells him on any given day.
In Russia the ouija board steers you!
Quote from: Gusington on May 30, 2014, 11:46:43 AM
In Russia the ouija board steers you!
Russian admin support, "Oleg Ouija"
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nerdtitan.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F04%2FJeanette-Voerman.jpg&hash=43b5a5b62004168f7990575a42a5fe49364894c7)
Exactly what I was fearing! Or hoping for. I think.
Quote from: Gusington on May 30, 2014, 12:45:17 PM
Exactly what I was fearing! Or hoping fapping for. I think.
Fixed for ya.
I can dig it, even with all that goth eye makeup on a blonde.
Quote from: Windigo on May 30, 2014, 12:06:40 PM
Russian admin support, "Oleg Ouija"
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nerdtitan.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F04%2FJeanette-Voerman.jpg&hash=43b5a5b62004168f7990575a42a5fe49364894c7)
Sexy/funky! Like a cross between a naughty Catholic schoolgirl and Harley Quinn. O0
Oleg's a dude's name!! :o Oh well, to each their own... ::)
So your problem isn't just with the eye makeup?
Quote from: Gusington on May 30, 2014, 01:23:45 PM
So your problem isn't just with the eye makeup?
Nah, ya can wash that shit off. Unless it's tattooed on, in which case you can turn off the lights. But the other thing....
Try googling the chicks name on the lower left.
*backs away from keyboard slowly*
She looks like the girl from one of those Vampire: the Something-or-other games.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on May 30, 2014, 08:37:46 PM
a "smart phone" typo.
Is that like sexting a Thai girl only to find out... ?
how do you think I really met Mirth?
Which one of you is from Thailand, though?
.
As an added bonus, simply running the engine creates an effective smoke screen.
Getting that hulk to move will take a lot more than just getting the engines running. Any bets that it sheds a track after only a few hundred feet and a turn or two?
I bet it will shed a track just getting off that base it's mounted on.
in Soviet Russia track sheds you!
Jesus...I can smell that from here.
Quote from: Gusington on June 08, 2014, 03:59:55 PM
Jesus...I can smell that from here.
Sorry I had a couple of burritos for lunch.
I think you've had enough.
The Uks are claiming that Russian armour crossed into Luhansk. The Russkies are denying it.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/12/world/europe/ukraine-russia-crisis/index.html?hpt=wo_c2
Quote from: Centurion40 on June 13, 2014, 08:52:52 AM
The Uks are claiming that Russian armour crossed into Luhansk. The Russkies are denying it.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/12/world/europe/ukraine-russia-crisis/index.html?hpt=wo_c2
Good grief. It's like the russkies have no respect for the US media cycle. Let ISIS reach baghdad. THEN cross your armour. Sheesh.
Be interesting to see what happens if the Ukrainian Foreign Minister's assertion that Ukrainian forces destroyed several Russian vehicles in the convoy turns out to be true.
One article said they were old T65s, which used to be made in Ukraine. It's unlikely he will use damning equipment if there is a cheap substitute.
CNN reports that Ukrainian military transport plane was shot down with 50+ dead. Also - bomb found outside the Ukrainian President's office.
And now the Russkies have cut-off natural gas to Ukraine.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/16/news/ukraine-russia-gas/index.html?hpt=hp_t3
JFL!
^^ Kind of surprised they hadn't done that to start with.
Quote from: JasonPratt on June 16, 2014, 08:37:03 AM
^^ Kind of surprised they hadn't done that to start with.
Same here. I was expecting that to happen a lot sooner than it did (as in weeks/months ago).
I wonder if it's another example of overplaying his hand. There's not much point in dealing with putin if he won't share any carrots. There's certainly no reason to put up with his little stick syndrome without access to the motherland's resources.
The sudden apparent escalation -- rumors of armor crossing the border, transport plane shot out of the sky, gas cutoff -- seems suspiciously coincidental given the US media furor over the ISIS reacharound this weekend.
Ukrainian helo shot down this afternoon.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/24/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Its all over the news that the Ukraine has signed a trade deal with the EU. They have also stated they wish to join. Same for Georgia (gasp!) and Moldova.
Seems like threats do not encourage compliance. Maybe it's time for the Putin pout.
Hmm...or a 1956 or 1968 type invasion...
QuoteUkrainian President Petro Poroshenko says he is halting a unilateral cease-fire in the conflict with pro-Russian separatists and says Ukrainian forces will go on the offensive against the rebels.
A statement from Poroshenko on his website says the cease-fire is being halted and that "we will attack and we will free our country."
The fragile cease-fire expired Monday night. The idea was to give rebels a chance to disarm and to start a broader peace process including an amnesty and new elections.
But rebels did not disarm, and the ceasefire was continually violated. Rebels did not comply with Poroshenko's latest push to get them to turn over key border crossings with Russia and permit international monitoring of the cease-fire.
"The unique chance to put the peace plan into practice was not realized," Poroshenko said in a speech prepared for delivery to the nation. "This happened because of the criminal actions of the fighters."
Poroshenko had already extended the cease-fire from seven days as part of a plan to end the fighting that has killed more than 400 people since April.
Poroshenko's decision followed four-way talks in search of a solution with Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande on Monday as the deadline approached. He issued a statement after the talks ended saying the key conditions needed to continue the ceasefire had not been me
http://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-president-ends-unilateral-ceasefire-221108916.html
I wonder if Putin will use this as an example of Ukrainian aggression and as an excuse to "protect" Russians in the rebel held areas.
If Putin hasn't done anything by now beyond massing troops, I don't think he will start now.
Putin's direct action window is almost closed, barring any bit of truly outrageous behavior by real or purported anti-Russophone Ukrainian nationalists. At this point he has far more to gain by continuing to pump weapons (esp. anti-air) into the conflicted areas and hoping that his catspaws can hold on to enough turf to become a de facto autonomous thuggocracy which will remember the hand that fed it.
Both posts make sense to me. He will do whatever, with the logic better to seem mad than predictable.
There may be a new escalation in the conflict. A Malaysian airliner has gone down over the Ukraine near Russian border. First reports are that it was shot down.
wow
holy shit.
http://rt.com/news/173616-malaysian-crash-ukraine-border/
and
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/07/17/malaysian-airlines-crash-ukraine-russia/12779763/
and locals are already scavenging metal from the debris....
Apparently it was high in the sky, flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lampur. CNN is reporting that the plane was brought down by Buk surface to air missile system.
WTF would any of them shoot at a commercial airliner at the apex of its flight arc? Drunkards, or one trying to smear the other?
http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/17/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Quote
The aircraft was "shot down" over Ukraine by "terrorists" operating a Buk surface-to-air missile system, according to the Facebook page of Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the Ukrainian Interior Ministry. There were 280 passengers killed as well as 15 crew members, Gerashchenko's post reads.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2Fa%2Fa8%2FBuk-M1-2_9A310M1-2.jpg%2F800px-Buk-M1-2_9A310M1-2.jpg&hash=86db65da28f608b679935a15e37c86f29fbb726c)
Quote
On Thursday, CNN reported that Ukrainian officials said a Russian fighter shot down a Ukrainian jet Wednesday as the jet flew in Ukrainian airspace. Tensions are high over that incident, separate from the breaking news of the Malaysian flight Thursday.
theyve been going after transports so it might have been a horrible mistake.
Don't commercial airlines usually avoid flying over active war zones?
not in this instance. it seems lots of carriers have been using the airspace. Lufthansa just suspended flights using the airspace. SMH
A 777, working here at Boeing is pandemonium - event wrap party had just started
what?
The burning mass on your tv was a Boeing aircraft, I'm in Seattle at Boeing with the guy that sold it - there is a conference here and the wrap party was just starting when it got hit
You should've said something about Seattle, dude! We've got Grogpeeps all over the place and I'm sure someone would've hoisted a pint with you out there.
Would have loved to.... crazy hours though, never even thought
a lot of links and other good info on the shootdown here: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=5978&page=89
warning - one of the frequent posters in that thread is a bit of a loud anti-Russian git with bad grammar, but work thru it as some of the links aren't bad
23 US citizens reported on board.
Are any of the rebel groups equipped with Buk systems or similar weapons?
Quote from: Gusington on July 17, 2014, 02:01:48 PM
Are any of the rebel groups equipped with Buk systems or similar weapons?
Talking heads on TV say that if the rebs did it they were prolly Russian speztnaz with the patches cut off.
Quote from: Gusington on July 17, 2014, 02:01:48 PMAre any of the rebel groups equipped with Buk systems or similar weapons?
The rebels seized some air defense equipment about 3 weeks ago, but I can't find the news link right now.
Plus, there's nothing saying the Russians didn't slip a few toys over the border and just let the rebels chalk it up to 'captured equipment'
Wow.... I had no idea that airliners were still flying over or that close to the conflict zones.
And its not like the Russians never shot down an Asian airliner full of civilians before...
Wow. I was playing a scenario based on this same thing in Bayonet Games Orange Crush last night...oh wait. O:-)
Quote from: OJsDad on July 17, 2014, 04:28:50 PM
Wow. I was playing a scenario based on this same thing in Bayonet Games Orange Crush last night...oh wait. O:-)
suckit
;)
The evidence is definitely pointing to Russian separatist involvement.
"All this creates the impression that Girkin claimed responsibility for the downing of MH17, thinking it was a Ukrainian military transport, and then panicked and tried to hide the evidence after the truth came out."
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0717/Web-evidence-points-to-pro-Russia-rebels-in-downing-of-MH17 (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2014/0717/Web-evidence-points-to-pro-Russia-rebels-in-downing-of-MH17)
...so all Nations whose citizen got killed, should hold a high rank meeting, declare the NATO Casus foederis has set in against the selfdeclared 'Donez Republic' (or how they call themself) , and air strike them to smithereens ASAP with the OK of the Ukraine goverment (its there territory, at least in juristic terms) ... the Ukrainian ground forces go in a for the mop up later after the very short air campaign ....while Russia cant do anything against that then complain in its newsoutlets, after this horrifying event.
God help the wicked if Mike and I are ever world leaders.
The report I heard on the way home said that most of the folks on that triple seven were Dutch nationals. As a member of the great Dutch Diaspora I think it's high time that Putin gets called out on his farce of erzatz Russokrainians with a much bigger stick upside his politico-economic head.
Also, I wonder if anyone in Chechnya might be interested in Stinger SAMs that are GPS-locked to only operate in Russian airspace... >:(
As much as I'd loved to see Tornados on SEAD missions over eastern Ukraine because of this, I suspect the resulting EU sanctions are going to be a lot more damaging.
One report I read suggested it was actually a Cossack unit that was responsible. Who in their right mind gives a Buk system to Cossacks?!
Some thoughts here.
Civil war in Ukraine. Both sides have access to weapons. There has been active attempts by the pro-Russian separatists to shoot down Ukranian aircraft in the last month. The world knows this. I am really surprised airlines are still permitting flight paths through this warzone.
I can imagine that pilots are taught to be conservative with fuel consumption, and that is true for airline pilots. I don't know what exactly the Malyasian flight group was thinking, hopefully the black box can be recovered and can explain their flight path choices, either be it for fuel conservation or for avoiding bad weather. The fact is they did flight through or very close to a really dangerous area. I am really wondering if any other airliners had the sense to take notice of the warnings in the last month. As for the belligerents on the ground, some proof (either radio/cellphone or wireless traffic) will come up soon that they were most likely involved. I don't see what they would gain from shooting an civilian airliner, unless the plan was to blame it on the other side. Most likely somebody FUBARD and chose the wrong target of the day, and now *it* has hit the fan.
I am getting pretty sure that Malaysian Airlines will be out of business after the fallout from this and the reaction by the families and after a disastrous year. I really feel for the families, as I think this whole thing could have been avoided.
Countries avoid the area individually but IATA has not explicitly barred flights in the area. Local NOTAMS do have warnings about military action. I believe IATA is partly to blame. I guess they trust the responsibility and capability of the militaries of both sides to ID targets before shooting.
You are right. There have been advisories issued months before, but I dont think anyone can enforce that. Sometimes they bar flights up to 9000 ft, then people just fly at 10,000.
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 17, 2014, 06:49:44 PM
Also, I wonder if anyone in Chechnya might be interested in Stinger SAMs that are GPS-locked to only operate in Russian airspace... >:(
Fuck. No.
We learned after the Mooj in Afghanistan that the enemy of my enemy might turn into my enemy at some point too. Chechnya is a kleptocratic gangster state that's run by career criminals who figured out the world will view them more sympathetically if they claim 'religious oppression'.
We don't need to try to fight any more guerrilla proxy wars, because they all spiral sideways out of control at the end and come back and bite you in the ass.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 17, 2014, 09:03:44 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 17, 2014, 06:49:44 PM
Also, I wonder if anyone in Chechnya might be interested in Stinger SAMs that are GPS-locked to only operate in Russian airspace... >:(
Fuck. No.
We learned after the Mooj in Afghanistan that the enemy of my enemy might turn into my enemy at some point too. Chechnya is a kleptocratic gangster state that's run by career criminals who figured out the world will view them more sympathetically if they claim 'religious oppression'.
We don't need to try to fight any more guerrilla proxy wars, because they all spiral sideways out of control at the end and come back and bite you in the ass.
Oh, I know better. I am just very pissed off and I was channeling my inner MikeGER... 8)
It's chipper time! Reduce, Recycle, Repatriate.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 17, 2014, 06:49:08 PM
God help the wicked if Mike and I are ever world leaders.
No kidding.
Where is a whiskey-drinking, depression-addled, visionary like Churchill when you need him?
I would be using that 747 with the ABM laser for anti personnel missions.
just for style points. :knuppel2:
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 17, 2014, 09:11:34 PM
Oh, I know better. I am just very pissed off and I was channeling my inner MikeGER... 8)
as much as i 'hate' the Dutch on the soccerfield in a final ;) ...as much i love all of them outside the stadium :)
you cant kill hundreds of my neighbours and walk away with: 'ok no more Edamer for you pal' as a result of coming weeks of political back and for EU-meetings talks.
the Donez separatists had to get removed, while Putin has to watch from his side of the border and just suck it up. That is the political price he has to pay.
It is his political fault, to let them operate weapons they are not fit to use in a responsible way.
if you cant tell the difference between Antonov military transport and a commercial airliner on your radar stay away from the firing button and when there is doubt just let it pass, its just an old hauler not a nuke-baring bomber on route to your capital...
Putin and his band of terrorists should be slapped down hard. And that should include Crimea.
holy shit
http://news.yahoo.com/woman-loses-relatives-2-malaysia-air-disasters-102012283.html
That's just horrible! :(
It looks like the Eastern Separatists have spirited away the plane's recorders from the crash site before investigators got there. Any bets as to whether the seals will still be intact if those devices are ever turned over?
Also, I heard on the car radio that there are radio intercepts that allegedly show Separatists radioing Russian Military contacts and telling them that the former have shot down a plane, and then saying it turned out to be a commercial aircraft indicating this was not their initial intent, thinking the craft was Ukrainian when firing on it.
Can't link these as I'm just walking into work and on my phone.
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 18, 2014, 07:18:53 AM
Also, I heard on the car radio that there are radio intercepts that allegedly show Separatists radioing Russian Military contacts and telling them that the former have shot down a plane, and then saying it turned out to be a commercial aircraft indicating this was not their initial intent, thinking the craft was Ukrainian when firing on it.
Can't link these as I'm just walking into work and on my phone.
Yeah, saw the transcript on CNN this morning. They also interviewed the Ukrainian Foreign Minister. He said that the rebels did not get a Buk system (although he never named the anti-air system) from Ukraine, and that Ukrainian forces do not have the system in range of where the plane was shot down. He said that system is not something that one can buy on the black market, that Russians must be involved.
CNN reported that the pro-Russian separatists are saying that the Ukrainians thought that the plane was Putin's, and that they shot it down. Apparently Putin is blaming Ukraine for the tragedy, basically saying that if Ukraine didn't fight to keep its territory, none of this would have happened. ::)
This is the definition of clusterfuck.
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 18, 2014, 07:35:11 AM
basically saying that if Ukraine didn't fight to keep its territory, none of this would have happened. ::)
that like the traffic accident laws in Saudi Arabia when a stranger is involved. the stranger is always guilty because if he had not visited the country, the car -accident would not have happend. ::)
i don't think the flight recorder will reveal much... it will be normal sounds , then a crack, (disintegration of airplane, were flightrecorder in the back get separated from the cockpit and most of the sensors that are not inside) with a little luck 'impact of shrapnel'-sounds got recorded just a split-second before disintegration... its a 90kg warhead, a fragile plane (it does not have to pull any g's) and moving at its cruisespeed...
I doubt the recorders will answer the question who fired that rocket.
how do you discriminate if the rocket was fired 2 klicks inside or already outside of the Ukraine border (out of Russia), and by Separatists, or regular Russians, or Russian military adviser dressed in ragtags to assist the Separatists...
How big is the probability that the Separatist had a former airdefence operators crew in their men-pool, which were trained on that model in the past, when they did there service-time in the Ukrainian military?
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 18, 2014, 06:40:56 AM
That's just horrible! :(
It looks like the Eastern Separatists have spirited away the plane's recorders from the crash site before investigators got there. Any bets as to whether the seals will still be intact if those devices are ever turned over?
Russia will inspect them and determine they were destroyed on impact. They'll never see the light of day. Not in this century.
they won't have anything to contribute to what is all ready known...
Maybe a tragic cockpit voice recording, "Ho-ree phruk!"
I think the CVR will contain pretty shocking audio. If the video shown on the news of the burning aircraft going down for feet after feet is real, the people on board must have had terrifying last minutes of their lives and the crew will probably be frantically trying to troubleshoot the problem if they have never seen the rocket coming.
All of a sudden a loud bang, structural damage and Fire.
This is Assuming the pressure hull was still intact.
Perhaps its better if it was breached and people ran out of oxygen before dying otherwise.
189 Dutch confirmed. Me and my wife are still waiting on confirmation of colleagues of us being on board. .
the black box wont have anything useful on it. these arent aircraft with military electronic suites so they would never even know that they were lit up with either tracking or engagement radar. their first indication would have been the warhead detonating. if it had been an El Al flight there would have been lots of info and those aircraft carry ECM and active countermeasures like chaff and flares.
Yskonyn,
I take your point. I saw the video (looks like right engine was hit) and yes it appears that after an initial very steep descent, the plane's dive was shallower. Whether that was the flight crew or the planes computer attempting to recover is irrelevant to the fact the cabin looks intact.... it would have been a horrifying last amount of time on Earth.
RIP innocent victims.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2014, 10:31:30 AM
the black box wont have anything useful on it. these arent aircraft with military electronic suites so they would never even know that they were lit up with either tracking or engagement radar. their first indication would have been the warhead detonating. if it had been an El Al flight there would have been lots of info and those aircraft carry ECM and active countermeasures like chaff and flares.
It doesn't contain any useful information about which platform was indeed used and where the rocket had been launched from geographically. But it probably will contain useful indirect data to confirm it was hit by a rocket and confirming it was a Ground to Air kill and in which state the aircraft was after being hit and wether the crew was still alive or not. That's useful too, just not military useful.
But the military aspect of this can probably be confirmed in various other ways you wouldn't rely on a blackbox for anyway.
Then there is all kinds of internal data for Boeing that can possibly be used in various ways in their factories ( research, structural Loads, stress, etc), research centers and the like.
in this day and age Im somewhat surprised that more international carriers dont have a basic minimum of active and passive defences.
Well, if it turns out that it was an accident afterall it comes down to panic reaction to establish measures that will make most airliners go bankrupt.
Its already a sector where financial times are hard.
Besides, what if you have a RWR on a jetliner? Once it starts to yell its too late and infrared missiles are undetectable.
What we should look at more closely is mitigating risk over commercial demands. If a region has unrest, stop flying there.
At this time many airlines rely on a security network for intelligence where it is unclear wether commercial factors are paramount instead of safety.
I don't claim commerce wins here. But I do claim that its always a fine line to be walked for an airline between commerce and safety as a function of chance.
when a 777 costs $320 million whats another 3 or 4 for an ecm suite? its like buying a car and saying fuck it, put in the great stereo.
Quote from: Yskonyn on July 18, 2014, 11:41:03 AM
What we should look at more closely is mitigating risk over commercial demands. If a region has unrest, stop flying there.
+1
The recorders may not provide any direct useful info as to who fired but the timing of events could help determine, in conjunction with other sigint sources, where the missile most likely came from or at least narrow it down, based on where the plane was first struck, probable flight time of the missile, and final landing site. It may even help to determine where some missile debris might have fallen right after impact, potentially providing more physical proof.
Quote from: Yskonyn on July 18, 2014, 10:14:19 AM
Me and my wife are still waiting on confirmation of colleagues of us being on board. .
Yikes.
I wouldn't be surprised if we had some kind of ELINT coverage of the area that picked up the FC radar.
http://www.break.com/article/malaysia-flight-17-facebook-post-about-disappearance-2665340
Again, yikes.
Quote from: mirth on July 18, 2014, 12:24:57 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if we had some kind of ELINT coverage of the area that picked up the FC radar.
Yep.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-malaysia-airlines-crash/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Quote
The "working theory" in the U.S. intelligence community is that the Russian military supplied a Buk surface-to-air missile system to pro- Russian rebels, a senior defense official told CNN. The official would not discuss the specific intelligence that is leading to this assessment. U.S. intelligence and military analysts are also scrutinizing video apparently showing a Buk system being driven back across the Russian border after Thursday's crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, the official said.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2014, 11:51:40 AM
when a 777 costs $320 million whats another 3 or 4 for an ecm suite? its like buying a car and saying fuck it, put in the great stereo.
Ok... and what about all the aircraft already in service? That's a bill that's hard to swallow, me thinks.
Oh no doubt. A refit probably vost 3 times as much. But you dont need it on every airframe.
I wouldn't be surprised if Boeing and Airbus already push this package for their larger airframes (777 and 380 respectively) that do the long-haul routes. It's up to the airlines as to whether they want to buy it or not. I'd imagine some of them will start looking at lot more closely at these for future purchases.
Admittedly I've only had time to read bits and pieces here and there about this, but one piece was interesting that said the plane was 35 miles from the border...it failed to say which side it was on, and whether or not it was following an international air route. Not that this would matter much to the Russian idiots that fired it, apparently.
it was inside Ukraine air space and using a well traveled route.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 18, 2014, 01:55:12 PM
it was inside Ukraine air space and using a well traveled route.
That's what I thought.
Has there been an international outpouring of outrage against Russia? Or is the world media spinning this into it somehow being anyone's but Russia's fault?
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfa1/t1.0-9/10494595_750289071679538_4952462999681711289_n.png)
Oy vey
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on July 18, 2014, 01:58:15 PM
Has there been an international outpouring of outrage against Russia? Or is the world media spinning this into it somehow being anyone's but Russia's fault?
I wouldnt expect protests and riots. not with this generation of yoots. if fact, and most surprisingly, only the BBC seems to be pulling its punches. you know you fucked up when msnbc and fox are pretty much in agreement.
All this BS the separatists and Russians are engaged in, trying to shift blame and dodge responsibility is what puts me over the edge. It really speaks to how immature and backwards Russian culture is.
Ok, it hugely sucks to have mistakenly downed a civilian airliner with your shiny new SAM battery. I'm not even saying step forward and take responsibility. I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt (despite the pretty clear signals intel on this). Just be a responsible nation state, agree to the investigation, provide honest security for the impact site, and shut up until the UN monitors announce some findings and the bodies of the dead have been repatriated.
Putin and these ultra-nationalist man-boys can't swing that though. They're like a bunch of five year-olds all looking at the floor and trying to blame the broken lamp on the dog, or the neighbor. Guess what, Boris? Your little chest-beating camping trip power fantasy just got real. You screwed up. You want to be a nation state? Start acting like one.
Bunch of damn buffoons.
Quote from: panzerde on July 18, 2014, 03:04:46 PM
All this BS the separatists and Russians are engaged in, trying to shift blame and dodge responsibility is what puts me over the edge. It really speaks to how immature and backwards Russian culture is.
Ok, it hugely sucks to have mistakenly downed a civilian airliner with your shiny new SAM battery. I'm not even saying step forward and take responsibility. I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt (despite the pretty clear signals intel on this). Just be a responsible nation state, agree to the investigation, provide honest security for the impact site, and shut up until the UN monitors announce some findings and the bodies of the dead have been repatriated.
Putin and these ultra-nationalist man-boys can't swing that though. They're like a bunch of five year-olds all looking at the floor and trying to blame the broken lamp on the dog, or the neighbor. Guess what, Boris? Your little chest-beating camping trip power fantasy just got real. You screwed up. You want to be a nation state? Start acting like one.
Bunch of damn buffoons.
Well said.
in soviet russia excuse tells you!
In Soviet Russia missiles shoot by themselves.
The equivalent of this 100 years ago was the Lusitania, wouldn't you agree?
Would the Separatists' initial gloating social-media postings then represent this conflict's Zimmerman Telegram?
Hmm...not unless the social media gloating somehow resulted in the refugee crisis on the US southern border. Keep thinking though, I think we're getting somewhere.
Quote from: Gusington on July 18, 2014, 06:10:31 PM
The equivalent of this 100 years ago was the Lusitania, wouldn't you agree?
That's an interesting thought. I think you have to consider the impact of this more on opinion in the West in general rather than just the US, but this might be a similarly crystallizing event.
Just read that 80 children were killed on board, including 3 infants. Disgusting, horrible and unacceptable.
Quote from: Gusington on July 18, 2014, 06:10:31 PM
The equivalent of this 100 years ago was the Lusitania, wouldn't you agree?
No.
It could be a casus belli but won't be.
And I'm not sure it should be.
It's a better opportunity to contrast the US against the axis of dumbasses who are seeking to replace us with their own vision of a USSR Part Deux. However, apparently the apologizer in chief isn't interested in promoting US interests abroad, so instead you can expect a strongly worded letter to follow.
and a UN commission to investigate.
Quote from: LongBlade on July 18, 2014, 08:45:58 PM
Quote from: Gusington on July 18, 2014, 06:10:31 PM
The equivalent of this 100 years ago was the Lusitania, wouldn't you agree?
No.
It could be a casus belli but won't be.
And I'm not sure it should be.
It's a better opportunity to contrast the US against the axis of dumbasses who are seeking to replace us with their own vision of a USSR Part Deux. However, apparently the apologizer in chief isn't interested in promoting US interests abroad, so instead you can expect a strongly worded letter to follow.
Keep in mind that the Lusitania sinking wasn't a casus belli either. It took nearly two more years, the Zimmerman letter, and a return to unrestricted sub warfare before we entered the war.
Id rather we not go to war and get Ukraine into NATO.
Quote from: mirth on July 18, 2014, 09:01:13 PM
Keep in mind that the Lusitania sinking wasn't a casus belli either. It took nearly two more years, the Zimmerman letter, and a return to unrestricted sub warfare before we entered the war.
Oh, I know.
We're not going to war with Russia. The Malaysians have the greatest claim to that honor and I'm betting they won't either.
Starfury is correct - the better prize is to get Ukraine into NATO. That, and to isolate Russia as the pariah they want to be.
Quote from: LongBlade on July 18, 2014, 09:44:03 PM
Starfury is correct - the better prize is to get Ukraine into NATO. That, and to isolate Russia as the pariah they want to be.
You know, you get the sense that they've *almost* painted themselves into the same corner they were in back in 1989.
After this incident what will happen if Ukraine formally asks for NATO protection? Or assistance? Especially if it is branded as an international terrorist attack?
My feeling is many countries will want to end the rebels.
Cold War part 2 except this time Europe mostly gets to take care of itself. it been a little over a year now since the last M1 was pulled out of continental Europe.
Isolating Russia further is what made them this way in the first place. One way or another we need to engage them or risk confronting an alliance of Russia - China - Whoever Else They Can Sucker in 10 years.
no.
we dont need to engage them. they need reasons to engage us ,"the west", in a peaceful manner.
You're thinking logically. They're not. They are Weimar Germany with an even more serious chip on their shoulder.
no, they are not Weimar Germany. if anything the current Russian government is what you get when their Weimar experiment failed.
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xfp1/t1.0-9/10410092_815510121815474_6558336337599641196_n.jpg)
With the way this crash site and the bodies of those killed are being handled, Russia isn't doing itself any favors in making itself look not guilty of outright murder.
Even if other countries do nothing I expect England and Australia to respond for their lost people.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on July 19, 2014, 06:54:30 PM
Even if other countries do nothing I expect England and Australia to respond for their lost people.
Heard on TV that the Netherlands suffered the largest loss.
Yes, but they don't have the mighty SAS.
Speaking of which, the Dutch have issued a warning that this is Russia's "last chance" to give them access. What that means is quite beyond my ability to speculate.
https://news.yahoo.com/dutch-prime-warns-putin-last-chance-help-recover-162722436.html
Quote"He has one last chance to show he means to help," Rutte said of Putin minutes after what he described as a "very intense" conversation with the Russian leader. He added that the leaders of Germany, Britain and Australia shared his view.
Almost 2/3rds of those killed were Dutch nationals. It may be a small country but it has it's fingers in just about everybody's economic pie giving it behind-the-scenes clout. It's influence within the EU is no doubt the reason that there are so many candles and flowers left outside the Dutch Embassy in Moscow, interspaced with signs that say 'Please forgive us'. The only thing that could have been a worse outcome for Putin would be if the plane were full of Brits, Germans, or Americans.
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 19, 2014, 07:40:10 PM
Almost 2/3rds of those killed were Dutch nationals. It may be a small country but it has it's fingers in just about everybody's economic pie giving it behind-the-scenes clout. It's influence within the EU is no doubt the reason that there are so many candles and flowers left outside the Dutch Embassy in Moscow, interspaced with signs that say 'Please forgive us'. The only thing that could have been a worse outcome for Putin would be if the plane were full of Brits, Germans, or Americans.
Thank God the Dutch have the backbone to stand up to Russia.
Well, I don't think there will be any Dutch paras dropping onto the Kremlin or anything but the likelihood of even more severe sanctions is pretty high and when the economic pain gets to be too great Putin's rich cronies are going to stop returning his calls.
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 19, 2014, 08:05:02 PM
Well, I don't think there will be any Dutch paras dropping onto the Kremlin or anything but the likelihood of even more severe sanctions is pretty high and when the economic pain gets to be too great Putin's rich cronies are going to stop returning his calls.
It will be seriously tempting to splash the next Bear that violates Dutch airspace.
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 19, 2014, 08:18:29 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 19, 2014, 08:05:02 PM
Well, I don't think there will be any Dutch paras dropping onto the Kremlin or anything but the likelihood of even more severe sanctions is pretty high and when the economic pain gets to be too great Putin's rich cronies are going to stop returning his calls.
It will be seriously tempting to splash the next Bear that violates Dutch airspace.
He he, so true! :)
If the rebels are so resistent in letting the foreign examiners access the crash site I have a hard time understanding why they have no military escort from Ukraine.
Ukraine blames Russia while Russia says it doesn't know anything about it and doesn't back the seperatists either. So why not force those rebels out of that particular area? Or at least secure the site by force?
Because Ukraine doesn't want to risk a full blown offensive by Putin and will not allow foreign army present on their soil either. So it All stays in the realm of diplomacy and rethorics...
Its all too late now anyway, many bodies have been taken from the site along with their posesssions to a place God knows where...
I sure hope these people are properly repartiated back home.
Quote from: Yskonyn on July 20, 2014, 02:14:58 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 19, 2014, 08:18:29 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 19, 2014, 08:05:02 PM
Well, I don't think there will be any Dutch paras dropping onto the Kremlin or anything but the likelihood of even more severe sanctions is pretty high and when the economic pain gets to be too great Putin's rich cronies are going to stop returning his calls.
It will be seriously tempting to splash the next Bear that violates Dutch airspace.
He he, so true! :)
If the rebels are so resistent in letting the foreign examiners access the crash site I have a hard time understanding why they have no military escort from Ukraine.
Ukraine blames Russia while Russia says it doesn't know anything about it and doesn't back the seperatists either. So why not force those rebels out of that particular area? Or at least secure the site by force?
Because Ukraine doesn't want to risk a full blown offensive by Putin and will not allow foreign army present on their soil either. So it All stays in the realm of diplomacy and rethorics...
Its all too late now anyway, many bodies have been taken from the site along with their posesssions to a place God knows where...
I sure hope these people are properly repartiated back home.
Disgusting behavior by Russia.
I hope the bodies are cared for with respect and returned to their loved ones as soon as possible.
Apparently someone gave Putin a copy of "How Not to Respond to an International Crisis" for his birthday and he's taken it as a cookbook. Either that or he's completely lost control of the rebels, who are obviously led by bumpkins.
This just keeps getting worse and worse. I can't imagine the anguish and fury of the families of the people who are having the bodies of their loved ones treated this way. It makes me want to write things that are very politically incorrect.
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 19, 2014, 08:05:02 PM
Well, I don't think there will be any Dutch paras dropping onto the Kremlin or anything but the likelihood of even more severe sanctions is pretty high and when the economic pain gets to be too great Putin's rich cronies are going to stop returning his calls.
I wouldn't mind it if someone's special forces eliminated a rebel SAM launcher or two, along with the operators.
fwiw Im sure whoever pushed the button is not in a happy place right now.
In Soviet Russia, button pushes you.
Kerry claims that the US has proof that the BUK system was coming from Russian soil. Aparently it was part of a convoy of 150 vehicles coming from Russia into eastern Ukraine.
He also claims the US has identified the place where the missile was launched.
This was posted on SteelBeasts from by Stanny with lots of interesting links. Copied here for convenience (link: http://www.steelbeasts.com/sbforums/showpost.php?p=261096&postcount=12 (http://www.steelbeasts.com/sbforums/showpost.php?p=261096&postcount=12)
There has been already an explanation about the IFF feature of the Ukrainian "BUK" SAM sites. The Ukrainian "BUK" could not shoot the Boeing down because as soon as any civilian airplane enters international transit air space over the country the ATC gives him the "Friendly" designation and all air defense sites automatically get all firing systems blocked on this aircraft. Missiles simply won't launch.
So, there are two versions of who actually downed an aircraft and both lead to Russian separatists:
1) "BUK" system seized in one of the Donetsk air defense units, but Ukrainian officials say that only non-operational systems were left there, but they had a working Ukrainian IFF as well, so this version is less likely;
2) Transfer of several "BUK" systems previously seized by Russia during Crimea annexation with IFF removed, through Kerch straight to mainland Russia and then through the gap in the border into Ukraine; This version is more likely;
Videos:
1) "BUK M1" riding near the tragedy area in Snezhnoye, a little before the plane crash:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCjK8ZNJQdg
2) "BUK M1" being towed towards Russian border after the plane crash, one missile is missing on the launch rails:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mICnsgEY7wE
Seriously, Ukraine should not be blamed for this accident, this is a pure Russian fault, Ukrainians realized that terrorists possess SAM weapons being able to hit target beyond 4000 m altitudes only several days ago (on July 14th) when this An-26 delivering supplies was shot down near Russian border (altitude 6200 meters):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfu4apcgLeU
First version was that Russian Su-27 fired a missile across the border but now it comes clear that it was one of the same "BUK" launchers that downed B777.
My personal opinion, NATO could launch a SEAD operation along the Russian border to destroy the "denied" SAMs (which are not Russian as they always claim), there are F-16 from Spandahlem stationed now in Lask, Poland that specialize in SEAD duties, there are F-16 from Aviano there too, with the help of NATO air power this conflict will be over soon as Ukrainian army is quite capable to finish the ground war on their own. Problem is only the guided precise air strikes (Ukrainian jets cannot conduct night missions, they have no NV, no FLIR, no targeting pods etc.).
AND
"I am following the development of this conflict since the very beginning and must warn all my European colleagues, especially from Central and Eastern Europe - either NATO reacts as it did in Bosnia in 1995 or the situation is going to get much worse.
Putin's ambitions are not ending in Ukraine, but reaching such countries as Baltic States, Poland or Hungary. He wants to re-create some sort of Warsaw Pact or influence zone, and for these purposes he uses so called "denied war", when he's troops and weaponry are de facto on the ground but he denies this. What he does now is transferring all the weaponry Russia seized in Crimea through the gaps in the border, there were: up to 180 tanks T-64B and T-64BV, several dozens 2S1 self propelled artillery vehicles, BM-21 multi missile launchers, "BUK" and S-300 SAMs.
All this weaponry is quite enough for three or four Yugoslavia wars, so either NATO destroys this "denied and non-existent" hardware or it will continue to kill people.
For example, the amount of MANPADs in the area of conflict is insane, I mean each helicopter is usually fired upon by a salvo of 2 or 3 "Igla" manpads, those rebels even don't bother to use RPGs against "soft" targets like BMP or BTR - "Fagot" and "Metis" ATGMs are fired all the time.
Some videos of what is happening there, that might be interesting.
T-64B tank without reactive armor that suffered a frontal "Fagot" ATGM hit and got the turret rotation mechanism blocked, all optics and gun heat shield broken by sniper fire, RPG-26 hit the engine section:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPiigJfjPjY
"Igla-1" manpad pursues Mi-24 Hind (black trail on 0:25):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxJfHOFhHvs
"Igla-S" attack against An-30 reconaissance plane over Slovyansk:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FNoSFrCwds
Armored convoy got ambushed:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Itu5g0V2dZI
ATGM launches at Ukrainian armored units:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2IKsovaI9U
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jE7wrNg1rY
Damaged Ukrainian T-64BV tank, again turret rotation mechanism got blocked after RPG/ATGM hit, tank commander committed suicide, blown himself with grenade to avoid capture by rebels:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MEjwv7t8JA
Ukrainian artillery working:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-u1i6h7LJGM
Russian BM-21 multiple rocket launcher fires into Ukrainian territory (Russians deny this, say that this launcher is not theirs):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcyN2ymxXm8 "
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 20, 2014, 11:37:55 AM
fwiw Im sure whoever pushed the button is not in a happy place right now.
They have a reservation set in Lubyanca.
So
this is entertaining
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-government-wikipedia-2014-7
QuoteA political battle has broken out on Wikipedia over an entry relating to the crash of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, with the Russian government reportedly removing sections which accuse it of providing "terrorists" with missiles that were used to down the civilian airliner.
A Twitter bot which monitors edits made to the online encyclopaedia from Russian government IP addresses (unique numbers relating to certain computers or networks) has spotted that changes are being made to a page relating to the crash.
It appears that an internet user from within the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) changed a Russian language version of a page listing civil aviation accidents to say that "The plane [flight MH17] was shot down by Ukrainian soldiers".
That edit replaced text – written just an hour earlier - which said MH17 had been shot down "by terrorists of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic with Buk system missiles, which the terrorists received from the Russian Federation."
All edits to Wikipedia are permanently logged, with the username and IP address being stored along with the changes they have made.
An automated Twitter bot called congress-edits was created to monitor for changes made from US Congress computers and immediately tweet them. The source code powering that project was released to the public, allowing the creation of RUGovEdits which performs a similar role in Russia.
A tweet today from that account, translated into English, says: "Wikipedia article List of aircraft accidents in civil aviation has been edited by RTR [another name for VGTRK]".
Flight MH17 crashed in Ukraine on Thursday, on the border with Russia, with 298 people on board. There were no survivors.
Ukraine's interior ministry says the plane was shot down by a missile, while President Obama on Friday afternoon also said that it was likely to have been targeted by separatists.
Mr Obama said that the US does not "want to get ahead of the facts" but added: "A group of separatists cannot shoot down military planes without sophisticated equipment - and that is coming from Russia."
Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied any responsibility, however, telling advisers on Friday that: "certainly, the government over whose territory it occurred is responsible for this terrible tragedy."
If the Russian government has indeed edited the page it will be far from the first time that politically or commercially embarrassing Wikipedia updates have been exposed.
In 2006 United States Congressional staff were found to have edited articles about members of Congress, Microsoft once offered an engineer money to update articles on two competing standards, PR firm Bell Pottinger tweaked articles about its clients and, in 2012, MPs were discovered to have asked their staff to remove criticism about them.
A glimmer of hope.
QuoteRussia's richest businessmen are increasingly frantic that President Vladimir Putin's policies in Ukraine will lead to crippling sanctions and are too scared of reprisal to say so publicly, billionaires and analysts said.
If Putin doesn't move to end the war in Ukraine in the wake of last week's downing of a Malaysia Air jet in rebel-held territory, he risks becoming an international outcast like Belarus's Aleksandr Lukashenko, whom the U.S. famously labeled Europe's last dictator, one Russian billionaire said on condition of anonymity. What's happening is bad for business and bad for Russia, he said.
"The economic and business elite is just in horror," said Igor Bunin, who heads the Center for Political Technology in Moscow. Nobody will speak out because of the implicit threat of retribution, Bunin said by phone yesterday. "Any sign of rebellion and they'll be brought to their knees."
source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-20/russian-billionaires-in-horror-as-putin-risks-isolation.html
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fthechronicleherald.ca%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimagecache%2Fch_article_main_image%2Fbm_cartoon%2FdeadderWEB-july21.jpg&hash=c8beecffed7f8a8454683b553b5a86eea7b87a68)
Is sad the good relations which had been built up by Gorbatschov and later are destroyed by Putin.
Putin is the reincarnation of Breshnew.
Good nigth russia. President Regan was rigth in everything he said about Russia.
Bring back Yeltsin! All that guy ever wanted was a drink.
:uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2:
Words fail me :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2: :uglystupid2: :idiot2:
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-russian-propaganda-is-so-effective-2014-7
my emphasis
QuoteOne of the more outrageous conspiracy theories about the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 surfaced in the days following the destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 last week. The theory, which originated in Russia, holds that MH17 and MH370 are actually the same plane, and the U.S. military arranged for the second flight, filled with corpses, to be blown up over eastern Ukraine.
This theory was described in a widely read account in the New Republic Sunday by Russian-American Jessica Ioffe, which argued Russian civilians are being fed a uniformly skewed interpretation of the events that brought down the Malaysian airliner, killing 298 passengers and crew. While the sensational theory does not appear to be circulating among the more legitimate news outlets in Russia, Russian television stations have reportedly been promoting a narrative that Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, the United States -- but definitely not Russia -- are responsible for the air disaster.
oy vey
Well, it's as solid as any other conspiracy theory.
When the Russian economy tanks, I wonder if they'll blame the Illuminati?
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 22, 2014, 08:27:26 AM
Well, it's as solid as any other conspiracy theory.
When the Russian economy tanks, I wonder if they'll blame the Illuminati?
I hope so, because the truth is that it has been the Groginati all along.
interesting perspective from a Russian in Silicon Valley
edit: here's the link
http://skibinsky.com/no-russian/
^^ ??? :-\
Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 23, 2014, 06:00:07 AMinteresting perspective from a Russian in Silicon Valley
Quote from: JasonPratt on July 23, 2014, 08:37:22 AM^^ ??? :-\
man - I screwed
that up, eh?
let me find the link again and I'll fix the post. (https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/mesg/emoticons7/40.gif)
Wow. That author really doesn't hold back! :o
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 23, 2014, 10:16:28 AM
Wow. That author really doesn't hold back! :o
Nope not one bit.
When I worked at one of my step daughter's store's in one of the malls (Dec - May), there were 5 Russian Jews working at a customized t-shirt shop. They echoed some of what the author wrote.
bad, bad editing by the AP
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.kinja-img.com%2Fgawker-media%2Fimage%2Fupload%2Fs--efrOeaDF--%2Fc_fit%2Cfl_progressive%2Cq_80%2Cw_636%2Fausizooxkdb48iwh4vwn.png&hash=2c493dbfb8af4f561f52b920aedf5e4a366704b3)
(https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/6597576960/h1D89525A/)
And now 2 Ukrainian Air Force jets have been dropped.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/23/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2F2%2F2a%2FEnsign_of_the_Ukrainian_Air_Force.svg%2F1280px-Ensign_of_the_Ukrainian_Air_Force.svg.png&hash=c4792d758d1ac1212b348808a77cdc73bc14658a)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn-www.airliners.net%2Faviation-photos%2Fphotos%2F5%2F9%2F6%2F1906695.jpg&hash=e9b9000104ab9733d5f42e71822bb8a12eaea26e)
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 23, 2014, 01:41:37 PM
And now 2 Ukrainian Air Force jets have been dropped.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/23/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2F2%2F2a%2FEnsign_of_the_Ukrainian_Air_Force.svg%2F1280px-Ensign_of_the_Ukrainian_Air_Force.svg.png&hash=c4792d758d1ac1212b348808a77cdc73bc14658a)
Even a broken clock...
click to enlarge
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmediarnbo.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F07%2F23-07-eng-grad.jpg&hash=9e22e8ee08da1bf8cafdc6ed51efdfc08be0faa4)
Whenever I see a map like that I start checking the positions of the German Army Groups. Weird not to see them.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 23, 2014, 06:00:07 AM
interesting perspective from a Russian in Silicon Valley
edit: here's the link
http://skibinsky.com/no-russian/
Thanks. ;)
Wow. I think he just called Russia the Orks. "Russia is "cargo cult" of Soviet empire."
Quote from: Ubercat on July 23, 2014, 02:34:53 PM
Whenever I see a map like that I start checking the positions of the German Army Groups. Weird not to see them.
They're just a little farther west right now. >:D
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 23, 2014, 10:16:28 AM
Wow. That author really doesn't hold back! :o
I hope he doesn't have a 1 in a million run in with some radioactive coffee.
Quote from: Martok on July 23, 2014, 02:06:55 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 23, 2014, 02:02:44 PM
click to enlarge
This is all I'm seeing, chief.
give it a sec - big map could take a bit load even at reduced size
Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 23, 2014, 06:00:07 AM
interesting perspective from a Russian in Silicon Valley
edit: here's the link
http://skibinsky.com/no-russian/
Wow. A great read. Thanks.
This was posted on MeFi today.
http://liveuamap.com/?ll=48.18093060615466;39.01851440429686&zoom=9 (http://liveuamap.com/?ll=48.18093060615466;39.01851440429686&zoom=9)
"...it's social media that has helped build the public case against Russia" in Ukraine. One example is liveuamap.com, who "gather information from open sources and put it on the [Google] map" using familiar Google Maps markers for a Reds (Pro-Russian) vs Blues (Pro-Ukraine) theater map. Shaded regions indicate the Donetsk People's Republic (DNR; Red), Lugansk People's Republic (LNR; Purple), the MH17 crash site (Yellow), and the MH17 ceasefire zone (green). The posts linked to by each marker include a link to the source via a chain icon at the bottom of the post.
There's just no end to the utter lack of morals with these assholes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10978577/MH17-Malaysia-Airlines-crash-victims-robbed-of-their-dignity-by-rebels.html
QuoteMH17: Malaysia Airlines crash victims robbed of their dignity by rebels
Moscow-backed rebels accused of removing some of the corpses, taking their possessions and destroying evidence
"It basically looks like the biggest crime scene in the world right now, guarded by a bunch of guys in uniform with heavy firepower who are quite inhospitable."
Ukrainian officials accused the rebels of destroying evidence of "international crimes" and allowing cash and credit cards to be stolen from the dead. They also claimed 38 corpses had been taken to a mortuary in Donetsk, which is under separatist control, preventing investigators from reaching the bodies.
I'd say Putin's and his separatist lackeys handling of this whole is ham fisted, but that would be an install to a good pig.
There has been massive looting of the bodies.
I spoke to a guy who tried to see if his fallen loved one's phone would still be working and guess what; someone actually picked up and started muttering in Russian.
There are also various videos to be found where you see seperatists and civilian looking people removing jewelry from the bodies.
It just makes me furious. And the idea that even if the Ukrainian gov't eventually takes control of the area those responsible for this will have slipped away into Russland makes me even more furious. >:(
Yskonyn,
Were you able to get in touch with your friends?
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 24, 2014, 05:11:41 AM
Yskonyn,
Were you able to get in touch with your friends?
Also want to know!
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 24, 2014, 05:11:41 AMthose responsible for this will have slipped away into Russland
Well, the thuggy pirates who took over the area originally, coming up the rivers (thus the Rus), were vikings. They're going back to basics.
Still, in their defense (such as it is), they're like people who have grown up in an inescapable harsh prison. They probably think this kind of behavior is their only feasible option, anything more being ludicrously self-sacrificial. It's hard to really understand how utterly ground down to ash people can get under such situations. If other people get literally ground to ash, well, it's one more statistic in a world of inescapable tragedy where morality has often been officially proclaimed to be nothing more than social pragmatism -- which the proclaimers fairly consistently followed through with in order to get to be the ones on top of the crumbling heap! Do what you're told, and then do anything you can to avoid being saddled with the consequences yourself.
There are a lot of places here in the "First" World which operate much the same way, too -- whether uncivilized or not. :-\
Meanwhile, dang, just how far can those Russian missiles shoot?? :o
http://webcenters.netscape.compuserve.com/news/world/story/1001/20140724/T0089
QuoteALGIERS, Algeria (AP) — An Air Algerie flight carrying 116 people from Burkina Faso to Algeria's capital disappeared from radar early Thursday over northern Mali, the plane's owner and a French government official said.
Air navigation services lost track of the MD-83 about 50 minutes after takeoff from Ougadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso, at 0155 GMT (9:55 p.m. EDT Wednesday), the official Algerian news agency APS said.
That means the plane had been missing for hours before the news was made public. It wasn't immediately clear why airline or government officials didn't make it public earlier.
I can make a reasonable guess, considering the events earlier this week, why airline or gov't officials wouldn't immediately make a public statement about it. ::)
Sounds like the French will need to step up operations down there.
(I'm joking about the Russian missile system; but evidence looks like the local orks have been quietly upgrading their platforms.)
Quote from: Yskonyn on July 24, 2014, 04:53:58 AM
There has been massive looting of the bodies.
I spoke to a guy who tried to see if his fallen loved one's phone would still be working and guess what; someone actually picked up and started muttering in Russian.
There are also various videos to be found where you see seperatists and civilian looking people removing jewelry from the bodies.
I'd like to say that I am surprised, but I am not.
Click on endfire's link. There is a pic of a poster of Obama, supposedly displayed in Russia. It shows Obama being offered a banana, like a monkey.
Just announced...the Ukrainian PM is resigning.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukrainian-prime-minister-announces-resignation-24694977
QuoteUkrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has announced his resignation following turmoil in government.
Yatsenyuk made the announcement from the dais of the parliament after two parties said they would pull out of the governing coalition. "I am announcing my resignation in connect with the collapse of the coalition," Yatsenyuk said.
He said the parliament could no longer do its work and pass necessary laws.
The nationalist Svoboda party and the UDAR movement led by former boxer Vladimir Klitscho pulled out of the group of legislators that took over after former President Viktor Yanukovich was ousted by protesters seeking closer ties with the European Union.
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 24, 2014, 07:46:44 AM
Quote from: Yskonyn on July 24, 2014, 04:53:58 AM
There has been massive looting of the bodies.
I spoke to a guy who tried to see if his fallen loved one's phone would still be working and guess what; someone actually picked up and started muttering in Russian.
There are also various videos to be found where you see seperatists and civilian looking people removing jewelry from the bodies.
I'd like to say that I am surprised, but I am not.
Click on endfire's link. There is a pic of a poster of Obama, supposedly displayed in Russia. It shows Obama being offered a banana, like a monkey.
The map idea is pretty neat - it's being updated on the fly by people as we speak with points of interest and local observations from all over that region. Intelligence and social networking is here alright.
Has anyone else noticed how easy it seems to shoot down Frogfoots?.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 24, 2014, 11:46:40 AM
Has anyone else noticed how easy it seems to shoot down Frogfoots?.
Wouldnt that be 'Frogfeet'? ^-^
Apparently they are not as well armored as was thought.
Yeah, I saw an article stating that the rebels claimed one shoulder-launched missile took out both birds the other day.
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-russia-jet-shot-down-blame/25460575.html
Russian outrage: seems legit. :uglystupid2:
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on July 24, 2014, 01:00:55 PM
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-russia-jet-shot-down-blame/25460575.html
Russian outrage: seems legit. :uglystupid2:
Oy vey.
I think this sums up Russian history:
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdemotivators.despair.com%2Fdemotivational%2Fmistakesdemotivator.jpg&hash=8ad74d33336e13796f826f683d9e28f7d1f43188)
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 24, 2014, 05:11:41 AM
Yskonyn,
Were you able to get in touch with your friends?
Yes, they've lost dear ones (as expected, really). There were two colleagues of my wife on board, but they were not 'direct colleagues' so to speak. One of them was a very highly regarded HIV/AIDS researcher. Aparently loosing him is a big big blow for the AIDS medical scene worldwide.
Colleagues of mine have perished too. Our airline's ICT and Flight Technical Department has been hit with losses.
Not people I personally know, but among them are a few close relatives to people I do know personally.
It's a very difficult time for them.
The ceremony being held each time two new aircraft land at Eindhoven AFB with approx 74 caskets per run is respectful and well done.
Then 40 black cars escorted by military police move the caskets from the AFB to Hilversum where the bodies are going to be examined and identified. Each time a new convoy leaves, the roads and highway towards Hilversum are just crowded with people paying their respect. Along the roads cranes have been erected with flags raised half.
It's truely intimidating (in a respectful manner). The disaster has hit hard here.
At the same time people are starting to get a little restless about the future of the whole thing; should we sharpen our tone? why aren't we sending in armed forces to secure the site? why is our prime minister still only asking for patience and re-iterating that our first goal has been met (getting the bodies recovered) and the second goal is to ensure the investigation on the crash site can be done properly and securely. He refrains from saying anything harsh at this time because he feels it might endanger the short term goals.
But the whole thing just feels so sluggish. There has not been a big fist from the get go and secure the site properly and keep it that way (Ukraine is to blame here too, I feel). Evidence lies there, unprotected. Has been tampered with, has been looted, etc.
Note that this is just the view from a civvie. I am sure there are all kinds of things going on we have absolutely no clue about, but it sure doesn't really look like it's something with teeth.
I'm truly sorry to hear that. My prayers go out to the families of colleagues of your wife and yourself.
Being Dutch born myself I am also very frustrated by the pace at which things are happening. there needs to be a hard response to the incident itself and also th the criminal lack of respect for the crash scene and especially the victims' remains by those thuggish organizations who squatted on the scene. This international feet-dragging sets a very dangerous precedent with respect to the safety of air travel all over the world. If other quasi-political groups (such as ISIS and the like) think they can shoot down an airliner and rely on the international community to muck around instead of bringing down the hammer then you will see more of this over airspace adjacent to other conflict zones such as southern Turkey and parts of the Eastern Med. I'm sure Putin will be more than happy to smuggle out older SAMs to those willing to pay in hard cash as long as he can keep even a pretense of deniability. He doesn't give two s**ts about what the rest of the world thinks of him, just what it does about him.
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 25, 2014, 05:27:12 AM
I'm truly sorry to hear that. My prayers go out to the families of colleagues of your wife and yourself.
Ditto.
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 25, 2014, 05:27:12 AMThis international feet-dragging sets a very dangerous precedent with respect to the safety of air travel all over the world. If other quasi-political groups (such as ISIS and the like) think they can shoot down an airliner and rely on the international community to muck around instead of bringing down the hammer then you will see more of this over airspace adjacent to other conflict zones such as southern Turkey and parts of the Eastern Med.
Which kind of brings us back to the Mali/Algerian incident earlier this week -- is there any news yet on what happened over there?
My money is firmly bet on a bad weather incident.
I have no desire to travel by air anywhere. from start to finish its just become an inconvenient mess.
^^ I'd say "and so the terrorists win", but I'm not sure making Sataners disgruntled about traveling by air was all that near the top of their goal list.
{pondering} "And so the terrorists win an amusing trollish side-benefit"?
Its not even that. The whole process is a giant pain in the ass. Check in, baggage limits, delays, traffic, parking, time of flights, age of aircraft, no food Etc etc.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 25, 2014, 10:33:07 AM
I have no desire to travel by air anywhere. from start to finish its just become an inconvenient mess.
You're in Miami, why would you want to travel? Sounds like paradise :coolsmiley: Wish I had a contract on that side of the state!
Got used to the work travel in the last few years, haven't had any run in's with Homeland Security/Airpot security people yet - usually we have lawyers to prepare our work visas in US, and that answers 99% of the inane questions. The Nexus pass can help.
Needing lawyers to avoid the hassle of air travel... :))
"He is no romantic who came to fire a few shots. He knows what his tasks are. Just as he did in Transdniestria," he said. "Antyufeyev knows how to operate in such situations, how to suppress opposition and dissent... create an atmosphere of fear in which people will support any action by the separatists."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/27/us-ukraine-crisis-rebels-insight-idUSKBN0FW07020140727 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/27/us-ukraine-crisis-rebels-insight-idUSKBN0FW07020140727)
3rd day in a row that the investigators cannot reach the crash site of MH17, because it is unsafe and lots of fighting is going on in the vicinity of the crash site.
Porosjenko claims he is 'doing everything he can' to make access possible, but at the same time it was a few days earlier that suddenly Ukranian forces went on the offensive right in that area. It has been violent around the site ever since.
Prior to them going on the offensive, our prime minister had trouble convincing the parliament and department of defense of the reasoning behind sending in unarmed military police to assist the investigators.
The fact that these people were military police was to be ignored as such. They just needed more able bodies at the site to help and these police personnel come closest to being suitably trained for the investigation mission. (why there is no option to support the investigators already at the scene with a bigger international investigation crew is anyone's guess at this point, IMO).
They need to be unrecognisable as military police and they need to be unarmed as to not provoke any hostilities and show the rebels they are just there to investigate. Nothing more. Defense wasn't happy about it until it was made clear that the fact these men and women are military police by profession, but are not going to be at the site as such... they are just investigators. Defense agreed, though not very willingly.
So now these people are in a war zone. Ukraine decided to take the war to the rebels after the fact and nobody can get to MH17.
This stinks.
The US gov't needs to get off it's ass and start flooding the international media with all the evidence it's accumulated showing Russian culpability in the shoot-down as well as more than just a few pix of scorch-marks in a field proving that Russia has taken an active combat role in the ongoing fight. The media blitz needs to be relentless if we want to actually worry the Putin about what will happen to his economy as a result of this 'adventure' of his.
It feels like the Russians are again prepping the area for an invasion.
Quote from: Gusington on July 29, 2014, 07:25:51 AM
It feels like the Russians are again prepping the area for an invasion.
Will the Russians pull back a second time?
Theory would say "no." (See the role of mobilization prior to WWI)
One might argue that, having pulled them back once, we can't see what might prevent him from pulling back again.
OTOH, why send them back into an offensive position unless you intend to use them? Whatever "deterrence" the west showed causing him to pull back the first time apparently wasn't enough to encourage him to stay pulled back. Ergo, expect bad things to follow. My gut tells me that the west provided an insufficiently strong showing to prove the cost wouldn't be worth the benefit. I mean, seriously? The Russians are sending troops and heavy weapons. We're sending MREs. How does the old saying go? "Never send canned peaches to an artillery barrage."
It's okay, guys. I'm sure the White House will send a strongly-worded letter of condemnation to Russia, which will certainly make them think twice!
Why wouldn't Putin continue to push his luck? I think we can all agree that Russia was involved in shooting down a civilian airliner for crying out loud and there was barely a coherent international reaction to that!
Call me cynical of human nature when there's Billions of dollars at play economically, but we're whoring out to the financial interests. [when has that ever not been the case?]
If Yeltsin decides to go in, it'll be when summer is almost over and the EU starts to ramp up demand for natural gas and oil for heating.
Quote from: Windigo on July 29, 2014, 11:27:04 AM
If Yeltsin decides to go in, it'll be when summer is almost over and the EU starts to ramp up demand for natural gas and oil for heating.
Yeltsin is dancing a vodka dance at somebody's wedding in the hereafter somewhere.
Putin, otoh...
Quote from: Windigo on July 29, 2014, 11:27:04 AM
Call me cynical of human nature when there's Billions of dollars at play economically, but we're whoring out to the financial interests. [when has that ever not been the case?]
If Yeltsin decides to go in, it'll be when summer is almost over and the EU starts to ramp up demand for natural gas and oil for heating.
I agree. Financiers will be out to make a buck now, they will be out to make a buck even if a war is threatening NATO, even if the city around them burns. Fuck them. Only a fool listens to them.
That timing may even be early, this is all warmup practice of moving large numbers of troops. When it comes for real into Ukraine, probably the fall, their troops will have done it several times, no biggie. It will be fast and hard. Half the country will be under russian control before the weekend is out. The question is will they stop there?
I have yet to see a talking head bring up the point that a Cold War part two is only possible if the west lets it happen.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 29, 2014, 09:43:26 PM
I have yet to see a talking head bring up the point that a Cold War part two is only possible if the west lets it happen.
Are you saying you think a cold war is a good solution? My feeling is russia will laugh at a cold war. they will say you give us cold shoulder while we take country x, and y, and z.
I wouldnt mind the idea if it galvanized the west to be more pro-active as theres really no way Russia could deal with it.
I dont however see that happening.
I know what you mean. I am with you.
It could happen, all you need is some ornery Clint Eastwood type. "I know what you're thinking. Will he send a carrier group or all of them with all his bombers? Do you feel lucky Punk?" ^-^
but thats the reality of it. they dont have the carrier group, they dont have the bombers. FFS we have more Burkes alone then their entire navy.
all it takes is the will to say enough is enough.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 29, 2014, 11:42:32 PM
but thats the reality of it. they dont have the carrier group, they dont have the bombers. FFS we have more Burkes alone then their entire navy.
all it takes is the will to say enough is enough.
Which is why we are discussing a Land War in Asia, not repulsing a Soviet amphib invasion of the Baltics. Putin will play to his strengths (sneaky proxy wars with short supply lines leading to a 36hr fait accompli when the time comes) as opposed to large scale maneuver war against a well armored enemy with overwhelming air superiority.
Quote from: Staggerwing on July 30, 2014, 05:26:37 AM
Which is why we are discussing a Land War in Asia,....
Ooooooo.... never fight a land war in Asia.....
The really, really disturbing geopolitical facet of this is Germany's acquiescence to Russia. It feels like the Germans are almost living vicariously through the Russians, almost admiring what they are doing. Almost.
GUs, I think it's the other way around. The PC crowd is so loud in Europe these days that the Germans are afraid to stand up to the Russians because of all the "bad stuff" that happened 70+ years ago. They don't want to be seen as the bad guys again.....
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on July 29, 2014, 11:42:32 PM
but thats the reality of it. they dont have the carrier group, they dont have the bombers. FFS we have more Burkes alone then their entire navy.
all it takes is the will to say enough is enough.
Not them, us.
I know, Im just saying.
Not sure why the Germans are behaving the way they are Bart, but it creeps me out. Is the power of PC that strong in Europe?
Quote from: Gusington on July 30, 2014, 07:45:12 AM
The really, really disturbing geopolitical facet of this is Germany's acquiescence to Russia. It feels like the Germans are almost living vicariously through the Russians, almost admiring what they are doing. Almost.
I think Angela was trying to limit economic fallout to Germany if at all possible, but she has made relatively robust statements in comparison to the rest of Europe. I don't think given her background of growing up in East Germany, she has any illusions about Russia under the current regime. She is playing a balancing act between what needs to be done vis a vis Russia and the voting public.
Cameron today compared the position of Ukraine to Poland and Belgium in 1939 and 1914. I feel there will be some interesting events while I'm on holidays.
If the Russians actually invade Ukraine, can they avoid total economic collapse? I mean how effective is their army, really? I understand that man-for-man, tank-for-tank the Ukrainians are no match for the Russians; but the would not the economic fall-out for Putin be dire?
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 30, 2014, 10:59:34 AM
If the Russians actually invade Ukraine, can they avoid total economic collapse? I mean how effective is their army, really? I understand that man-for-man, tank-for-tank the Ukrainians are no match for the Russians; but the would not the economic fall-out for Putin be dire?
Russia has the numbers and some better equipment, but Ukrainians have been getting better and now have fighting experience. If NATO were to say that military option is a possibility in the event of Russian invasion of Ukraine, that would be pretty much that for a Russian possibility of an invasion.
Quote from: Centurion40 on July 30, 2014, 10:59:34 AM
If the Russians actually invade Ukraine, can they avoid total economic collapse? I mean how effective is their army, really? I understand that man-for-man, tank-for-tank the Ukrainians are no match for the Russians; but the would not the economic fall-out for Putin be dire?
They now have fossil fuel deals with China....
They have a couple years to build the pipeline to China IIRC.
They will let the Ukraine military slowly "win" against the rebels, pushing to the Russian border. Then they will cut them off from the South and the North. If they destroy most of the ground forces they will have the country.
Then we give them cold shoulder. They say "We can work with this! On to Moldova."
Reminds me of that 'Naughty Nazis' bit that Mel Brooks did in his remake of To Be Or Not To Be...singing, All I want is peace...Peace...PEACE. Aaaaaa little piece of Poland...a little piece of France...
"With Ukraine reporting Russia (http://www.reuters.com/places/russia?lc=int_mb_1001) has massed 45,000 troops on its border, NATO said there was a "high probability" that Moscow could intervene militarily in the country's east, where Kiev's forces are closing in on pro-Russian separatists. Western countries believe that Putin - who has whipped up the passions of Russians with a nationalist campaign in state-controlled media since annexing Crimea from Ukraine in March - could now send his forces into the east to head off a humiliating rebel defeat."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/11/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0GA0C620140811 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/11/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0GA0C620140811)
He has to do it now at the risk of looking like a real pansy after pulling back last time.
Ukraine does not appear to be backing down.
So do the Ruskies start shooting?
What about Crimea? If the Ruskies get pushed back out of Ukraine, do they turn their attention south to reclaim lost territory?
CNN reporting a large convoy of white trucks moving into Ukraine this afternoon with aide and assistance from the Red Cross. The problem with this is the Red Cross stated they have nothing to do with the convoy and witnesses are reporting that the white paint is still fresh...over Russian olive drab. Is this it?
http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/12/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
QuoteRed Cross flummoxed
In an interview Monday with Reuters, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen spoke of a "high probability" Russia will invade Ukraine.
"We see the Russians developing the narrative and the pretext for such an operation under the guise of a humanitarian operation and we see a military buildup that could be used to conduct such illegal military operations in Ukraine," he said.
Russia has acknowledged sending the convoy. In a conversation Monday with the President of the European Commission, Putin said his country was working with the International Committee of the Red Cross to deliver aid to civilians suffering as a result of savage fighting there.
Except the Red Cross says it doesn't know what Putin is talking about.
ICRC spokesman Andrew Loersch said the agency doesn't have any agreement with Russia on such a convoy.
And ICRC European operations chief Laurent Corbaz said Tuesday in Geneva that the agency hasn't gotten much clarity from Moscow about its purported role in the operation, including how the aid would be handed over and security guarantees for Red Cross workers.
Quote from: Gusington on August 12, 2014, 01:57:22 PM
CNN reporting a large convoy of white trucks moving into Ukraine this afternoon with aide and assistance from the Red Cross. The problem with this is the Red Cross stated they have nothing to do with the convoy and witnesses are reporting that the white paint is still fresh...over Russian olive drab. Is this it?
Trojan Horse??
Or bait and the minute the convey is attack/stopped/arrested Russia comes in to "rescue" the humanitarian mission
Let's see what Ukraine does about it. This could be a tipping point.
.
Oy vey
I'd say they're getting ready to roll into Ukraine.
The result of the sanctions has been to encourage him to double down rather than back off.
Quote from: LongBlade on August 13, 2014, 09:55:08 AM
I'd say they're getting ready to roll into Ukraine.
I agree, the red arrow in that picture is pointing at nothing less than Putin's narritive.
.
No kidding. I'm glad I don't live in the Ukraine.
Quote from: eyebiter on August 13, 2014, 10:15:16 AM
Hope the West sent the Ukraine a good supply of portable AT launchers this summer, looks like they are going to need them.
If they don't have them yet, it's time to get them over there. Let's see how eager Putin is to pull another Sudetenland when a bunch of infantry grunts start brewing up his tanks by the company.
Imagine the Russian reaction if the Pentagon were to announced it is in negotiation with Kiev to sell them a few our 'suddenly superfluous' A-10s...
All those Russian APC drivers will suddenly have flashbacks to the time they watched their bootleg copy of Reign of Fire's Boss Dragon v. armored column scene:
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.the-nextlevel.com%2Freviews%2Fps2%2Freign_fire%2Freign_fire_4.jpg&hash=7e40bcf750dcbb12bdb00d7848d096a7e7035e4b)
are you guys getting Ukraine on the news?
because we're getting fk all here on the BBC, you wouldnt even know there was a problem
Not anymore. Robin Williams, Gaza and Iraq have bumped it off. If you dig on Reuters or AP you can get info.
yeah theres a guy on battlefront in the beta forum reporting daily but theres just no coverage here at all - bloke at work thought it was actually all over
Quote from: undercovergeek on August 13, 2014, 06:18:06 PM
are you guys getting Ukraine on the news?
because we're getting fk all here on the BBC, you wouldnt even know there was a problem
I'm having a clairvoyant flash that tells me you Brits (and everyone else) will be getting some interesting Ukraine news very soon....
^From the flood of refugees set to land in the UK?
That, and the convoy of trucks (sans Kris Kristofferson on CB radio) about to cross the russo-Ukrainian border with it's Spetsnaz Relief workers and 40K Good Buddy squad in their heavy metal RVs.
Quote from: undercovergeek on August 13, 2014, 06:18:06 PM
are you guys getting Ukraine on the news?
because we're getting fk all here on the BBC, you wouldnt even know there was a problem
Yes, though the news from Iraq has eclipsed much of it.
(Cue: usual suspects to heckle) Fox News covered it tonight, albeit brifely, noting the Russians are trying to get a convoy into Ukraine.
Quote
Imagine the Russian reaction if the Pentagon were to announced it is in negotiation with Kiev to sell them a few our 'suddenly superfluous' A-10s...
You should offer them all, as a gift, to the Poles.
offer them half and give Israel the other half.
Hows about selling Poland F16s with HARM. IMO the biggest threat to the defense of poland is the russki surface to air missiles.
I bet those russki trucks are transporting supplies to take care of their invasion force on the border. 40,000 troops need a lot of food. If it's already there their job becomes easy. That stuff cant be let across the border.
QuoteVORONEZH, Russia – In a diplomatic game of chicken, a large Russian aid convoy rolled toward the Ukrainian border on Thursday -- but it was heading toward a crossing controlled by pro-Russian rebels instead of a government post as Ukraine had demanded.
Ukraine's government threatened to block the convoy if the cargo could not be inspected and announced it was organizing its own aid shipment to the war-wracked separatist region of Luhansk.
Later, it also declared it had taken the eastern town of Novosvitlivka, which lies just south of Luhansk, which means it could block the Russian aid from reaching the war-wracked city.
source: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/08/14/russian-aid-convoy-starts-moving-again-appears-bound-for-rebel-held-checkpoint/
Also worth noting the location. (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1081.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fj349%2Flongblade%2FSmilies%2Ftiger.gif&hash=73bdbe915d1d1f9767723ffb4fd42fb12fa45a55)
...and it's official. 23 armored vehicles from Russia crossed into Ukraine.
QuoteBut, while the trucks came to a halt well short of Ukraine's border, a different Russian convoy did make the crossing into Ukrainian territory late on Thursday evening.
The Guardian saw a column of 23 armoured personnel carriers, supported by fuel trucks and other logistics vehicles with official Russian military plates, travelling towards the border near the Russian town of Donetsk – about 200km away from Donetsk, Ukraine.
After pausing by the side of the road until nightfall, the convoy crossed into Ukrainian territory, using a rough dirt track and clearly crossing through a gap in a barbed wire fence that demarcates the border. Armed men were visible in the gloom by the border fence as the column moved into Ukraine. Kiev has lost control of its side of the border in this area.
source: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/14/russian-military-vehicles-enter-ukraine-aid-convoy-stops-short-border
Should we put our helmets on?
Quote from: Gusington on August 14, 2014, 07:35:05 PM
Should we put our helmets on?
I don't see why not. I suspect things are about to get noisy over there.
CNN disagrees...they're still running their 60s series. No mention of WWIII yet.
It's only a company of tanks. But that's the trial balloon going up. If the world doesn't notice, expect more to follow.
ya mean that youre not already wearing it? ::)
Quote from: Gusington on August 14, 2014, 07:35:05 PMShould we put our helmets on?
Quote from: LongBlade on August 14, 2014, 07:42:40 PMI don't see why not. I suspect things are about to get noisy over there.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 14, 2014, 11:45:29 PMya mean that youre not already wearing it? ::)
Star - he's going to swap out the tinfoil for the kevlar
The tinfoil goes inside the kevlar so I can still pick up transmissions and look fabulous doing it.
Quote from: Gusington on August 15, 2014, 07:41:51 AM
The tinfoil goes inside the kevlar so I can still pick up transmissions and look fabulous doing it.
Thank you. Obviously Star and Brant are amateurs.
Naw, they're just not in active service. Gussie's up on all the new tricks, along with all the other green boots.
In all honesty I still have to actually pick up my kevlar helmet from the px...I didn't even know I was supposed to have one until a few weeks ago.
The tin foil hat was issued when I wrote my first review for LB 12 years ago :)
Quote from: Gusington on August 15, 2014, 09:09:40 AM
The tin foil hat was issued when I wrote my first review for LB 12 years ago :)
Mandatory back then for all new recruits.
This place has fallen apart since I left.
Reports of fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces.
Quote from: OJsDad on August 15, 2014, 10:43:29 AM
Reports of fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces.
...and of course the huge story at the top of CNN is about a kid that got shot by a cop. The only reason they're making a big deal out of it is because he's black.
Funny how the news makes such a big deal out of such things, or crucifies people for using the (gasp) N-word...when they themselves are no better behind the scenes.
http://jimromenesko.com/2014/08/13/nydn-memo-be-sure-to-start-your-robin-williams-stories-with-words-like-death-dead-suicide-etc/
Sorry about that hijack. Back to coverage...
Here's the latest clip from CNN on it, a tiny blurb in the left column:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/15/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
God, I HATE CNN. I can't click a news 'story' without getting a damn commercial shoved in my face. (So why go to it, you may ask? To see what they're not covering more than what they are.)
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on August 15, 2014, 10:48:06 AM
Quote from: OJsDad on August 15, 2014, 10:43:29 AM
Reports of fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces.
...and of course the huge story at the top of CNN is about a kid that got shot by a cop.
In fairness to CNN they will do *anything* to avoid running a story making Obama look bad. The lost Malaysian airliner story? They were doing wall-to-wall coverage of it 45 days later. Their coverage of it was spectacular - if you'd been living under a rock for the last month and only had interest in what happened to the airplane.
BTW, last night in St. Louis was calm - almost jubilant. But that's good news for another thread.
To be fair BC. That's the top story on msnbc and foxnews also.
Try out Reuters or BC...didn't click the CNN link...is this new fighting between Ukrainian and Russian regular troops?
Quote from: OJsDad on August 15, 2014, 10:59:20 AM
To be fair BC. That's the top story on msnbc and foxnews also.
Good point, OJ.
Now Foxnews.com has shifted to the STL story: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/08/15/ferguson-police-say-michael-brown-fit-description-strong-arm-robbery-suspect/
If there is small-scale conflict in Ukraine, it may take a while to shift the world's attention. If it's just a few squads exchanging fire, while it demonstrates escalation, it's not the same thing as five divisions rolling in there.
This is probably Putin putting a toe in the water. If it's really the start of a full-scale invasion, we'll be seeing headlines soon enough.
Found it via news.google. (2nd story on their site)
QuoteUkrainian troops on Friday destroyed part of what Kiev says was a Russian armored convoy that crossed into Ukraine around the same time as a truck convoy of humanitarian aid reached the border, according to Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko's
Poroshenko informed British Prime Minister David Cameronin a telephone call that a "significant" part of the Russian armored column had been destroyed, according to the Ukrainian leader's website.
"Much of this equipment was destroyed by the Ukrainian artillery at night," the website says, according to Ukrinform new agency.
Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for Ukraine's National Security Defense Council, also reported that parts of the armored were "destroyed."
Source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/08/15/ukraine-russian-convoy/14097225/
USA Today article (above) said it was a relief convoy.
Article out of UK says it was an "armored column".
Clearly facts are still be sorted out. Both articles seem to claim the column took serious damage.
QuoteA "significant" part of the Russian armoured column that crossed into Ukraine on Thursday night has been destroyed by Ukrainian troops, the country's president tells David Cameron
Part of the Russian aid convoy parked in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Russia Photo: Pavel Golovkin/AP
Ukrainian artillery destroyed a "significant" part of a Russian armoured column that crossed into Ukraine during the night, President Petro Poroshenko told British Prime Minister David Cameron on Friday, according to the presidential website.
"The president informed that the given information was trustworthy and confirmed because the majority of the machines had been eliminated by Ukrainian artillery at night," the statement said.
Poroshenko did not include any proof for his statement.
source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11037397/Ukraine-artillery-destroys-part-of-Russian-armoured-column-says-Poroshenko.html
I hope the Brit responded with 'pics or it didn't happen'.
'David Cameronin?' I noticed they fixed it on the site. Shows you how much of a hurry the news entry monkeys are.
Hmm...it's interesting to note that the Russians have interspersed armored combat vehicles and troops with "aid vehicles." Looks like Putin is taking plays from the Hamas book of evil - if those invading APCs are destroyed and one or two "aid trucks" get it collaterally, well gee whiz, it's obviously the Ukrainian's faults for firing on "helpless aid workers."
Nyet to look at the APCs, Comrades...is no to see here!
Bloomberg is reporting it was an "armed" column: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-part-of-armed-vehicles-from-russia.html
Keep an eye on the news this weekend. We'll figure it out.
Regardless, the move is now in Putin's hands. Will he double down and push more convoys? Counter attack? Or withdraw?
I think he will likely go for it all now. Especially with our CinC trying so hard not to be involved.
Yeah, I've had a bad feeling about this. Russia is going to go for it I think. Because who's going to stop him? Western leaders will wring their hands and make statements condemning Putin and Russia...but that's it. That's not going to stop Russian tanks or APCs, obviously.
http://news.sky.com/story/1319354/ukraines-forces-attack-russian-armoured-convoy
if Brant were smart he would be throwing out Orange Crush on every game site right now.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2014, 11:23:25 AM
http://news.sky.com/story/1319354/ukraines-forces-attack-russian-armoured-convoy
if Brant were smart he would be throwing out Orange Crush on every game site right now.
I'll save Brant the trouble of replying....
Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 17, 2014, 04:31:21 PM
Quote from: OJsDad on July 17, 2014, 04:28:50 PM
Wow. I was playing a scenario based on this same thing in Bayonet Games Orange Crush last night...oh wait. O:-)
suckit
;)
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 15, 2014, 11:23:25 AM
http://news.sky.com/story/1319354/ukraines-forces-attack-russian-armoured-convoy
if Brant were smart
<ahem>
::)
well collectively we're smart. :))
A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals, and you know it! :coolsmiley:
I better get to the px and get that helmet ASAP.
Dawn is about to break on the Russian-Ukrainian boarder. I wonder what the day will bring?
An ill wind blows from the east.
Orks?
How do you guys feel about this? What should NATO do if Putin goes all-in? What should the USA do?
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 15, 2014, 08:31:12 PM
How do you guys feel about this? What should NATO do if Putin goes all-in? What should the USA do?
What I think matters not a whit.
The US will do nothing.
I agree and that will be a mistake.
For the rice-wine of argument though: What say ye?
Nothing. And we will pay for that 3, 5, 10 years from now.
Quote from: LongBlade on August 15, 2014, 08:31:58 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 15, 2014, 08:31:12 PM
How do you guys feel about this? What should NATO do if Putin goes all-in? What should the USA do?
What I think matters not a whit.
The US will do nothing.
I think people make a mistake if they think using military force is the only option here
As with all things it should be the option of last resort. Unfortunately its been pulled out too often and too early in the last decade by the US and see where that has got us.
I also wonder what people think we can do? Ukraine is not a NATO member there are no political agreements, prepositioned military supplies, long term cross training and even a stable local government. Is that what you want to go and send your troops into? Because if we do go in against Russia on their doorstep at the tail end of a logistical nightmare we will have thousands of US troops killed. Russia is not some third rate military and we are in their backyard.
What we need to do is probably what we are doing as much as can be done behind closed doors. Give the Ukranians the best intel they can get, provide drones and other military assets and work to see if there are diplomatic levers that can be pulled to wean the west off Russian gas.
Con
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 15, 2014, 08:37:22 PM
For the rice-wine of argument though: What say ye?
Send them small arms and ammo. Send them ATGMs. Send them Manpads. Some mines.
That's a good start. I think they'll fight. They just need some equipment to match the effort.
A non-kinetic response might be to offer Ukraine membership in NATO.
However, that window has probably closed. At least for now.
Also, I'm not really up to speed on the pros and cons of said idea. Sitting here making what amounts to a snap decision without any kind of serious reflection is, well, indulging your curiosity for an answer :coolsmiley:
A snap decision is pretty safe to make since neither the legislative nor executive branch of gov't listens to you or me anyway.... ::)
Well, they might be listening after all (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.smiley-lol.com%2Fsmiley%2Fmusique%2Fwalkman2.gif&hash=4b86eded5fc8cbc0683a491c3ad3f9e070c90b6e). They are simply not hearing us.
Reuters reported that the conflict hasn't widened from the initial skirmishes.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/16/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSKBN0GF13120140816
Not sure if that's an indication of calming down, or of the Russians building up for a hammer blow.
I'm thinking that the 'Russian armored column' the Ukrainians wasted was actually the vanguard of the supposed 1200 newly trained separatist and their 'gifted' armor that the Separatist leader promised was coming to his rescue from across the Russian border.
.
IIRC Antonov is a Ukrainian company. Ukraine also builds BTRs and some MiL helo models as well as some top-notch tank lines.
Suprise, suprise: most of those factories are in the eastern part of the country
Quote from: Con on August 15, 2014, 09:18:13 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on August 15, 2014, 08:31:58 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 15, 2014, 08:31:12 PM
How do you guys feel about this? What should NATO do if Putin goes all-in? What should the USA do?
What I think matters not a whit.
The US will do nothing.
I think people make a mistake if they think using military force is the only option here
As with all things it should be the option of last resort. Unfortunately its been pulled out too often and too early in the last decade by the US and see where that has got us.
I also wonder what people think we can do? Ukraine is not a NATO member there are no political agreements, prepositioned military supplies, long term cross training and even a stable local government. Is that what you want to go and send your troops into? Because if we do go in against Russia on their doorstep at the tail end of a logistical nightmare we will have thousands of US troops killed. Russia is not some third rate military and we are in their backyard.
What we need to do is probably what we are doing as much as can be done behind closed doors. Give the Ukranians the best intel they can get, provide drones and other military assets and work to see if there are diplomatic levers that can be pulled to wean the west off Russian gas.
Con
Overall I agree. One point though, the US, UK, and Russia DID sign an agreement to guarantee Ukraine sovereignty in exchange for them giving all their nukes to be dismantled. So IMO the Russian backstab to Ukraine demands that we never expect they will not do the same to us. And if their resources grow they are more likely to do it. NATO badly needs to solve the threat of their missiles or expect to be told "look the other way or else" at every turn.
Yes, Russia saw the 'threat' of Ukraine drifting to the EU as a potential loss of influence. So what, they still have to respect international borders first.
The more Russia pushes, the more likely, long term, that NATO will come up with the means to break the country up. Good by Soviet empire dream. Puta can go down in history at that point as the guy that set up the destruction of their empire.
In the meantime their oil power only exists as long as there are buyers. If China sees them seizing Asia will they continue with their fuel agreement? Maybe not.
Quote from: eyebiter on August 16, 2014, 10:09:40 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on August 15, 2014, 10:10:07 PM
A non-kinetic response might be to offer Ukraine membership in NATO.
However, that window has probably closed. At least for now.
At this point, not a chance.
Twenty years ago there was talk the "Partnership for Peace program" might eventually lead to membership. However NATO was already struggling trying to rebuild the East German, Polish, and the rest of the former Warsaw Pact nation armies. There was also concern how the former Soviet Union would react. And the Ukrainian people weren't very interested since rebuilding their military would have been very expensive.
As for sending weapons, did not realize Ukraine exports over a Billion dollars of military hardware every year. Starting to understand why Russia went for the land grab, if those factories are in rebel occupied areas.
After their desire for world glory I would say the Ukraine farmland is far more valuable than their factories. Russia can always make new factories. Most people are not aware that Ukraine is the European equivalent of the US and Canadian prairies. It gives them massive potential to grow food. Under Russian corruption of course it would still be useless. Even the lesser Ukraine corruption makes it useless. The potential is still there.
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 16, 2014, 06:28:35 AM
Well, they might be listening after all (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.smiley-lol.com%2Fsmiley%2Fmusique%2Fwalkman2.gif&hash=4b86eded5fc8cbc0683a491c3ad3f9e070c90b6e). They are simply not hearing us.
Ha! QFT
The lights are definitely on, but no one is home.
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 16, 2014, 09:47:04 AM
I'm thinking that the 'Russian armored column' the Ukrainians wasted was actually the vanguard of the supposed 1200 newly trained separatist and their 'gifted' armor that the Separatist leader promised was coming to his rescue from across the Russian border.
The last news I watched last night reported that the column was a bunch of BTRs. Supposedly they had been wiped out by mortars. It was just a quick glance but they appeared to be quite large - 120 mm.
Did it say how many vehicles appeared to be part of the column?
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 16, 2014, 11:44:59 AM
Did it say how many vehicles appeared to be part of the column?
If it did I forgot. Don't think I deleted it. Lemme see if I can find it.
Amy Kellog's report on Fox for Special Report:
"Several" BTRs. Ukraine claims they "took out most of them"
These were *not* the "aid" trucks.
NATO confirmed there was an incursion but claimed it was a continuation of events that have been transpiring. In other words, this ain't new news to folks who watch these things.
Red Cross will be inspecting the "aid" trucks soon. So far some inspections have taken place and found only legit aid like food.
The Pentagon indicated that it was doubtful mortars could have destroyed that convoy.
So all we really know is something happened, fire was exchanged, and maybe some vehicles were damaged. Maybe.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/14/us-ukraine-crisis-putin-military-idUSKBN0GE14020140814 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/14/us-ukraine-crisis-putin-military-idUSKBN0GE14020140814)
Bets this will be the left hook force that moves north behind the Ukraine forces?
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on August 18, 2014, 09:32:45 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/14/us-ukraine-crisis-putin-military-idUSKBN0GE14020140814 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/14/us-ukraine-crisis-putin-military-idUSKBN0GE14020140814)
Bets this will be the left hook force that moves north behind the Ukraine forces?
Dunno. He might be consolidating his grip on the peninsula in case Ukraine decides to try and take it back after the rebels are squashed.
.
If I were the Ukes I'd mine the ever loving crap out of all the bridges and fordable crossings connecting Crimea to the mainland, just in case.
I think its time to send in Gus.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2014, 12:10:45 PM
I think its time to send in Gus.
And some phone books for him to sit on/stand on. Do we have any with the GH logo on them?
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on August 18, 2014, 12:53:34 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2014, 12:10:45 PM
I think its time to send in Gus.
And some phone books for him to sit on/stand on. Do we have any with the GH logo on them?
We can give him markers to color them in with on the flight over.
Dont underestimate our Army trained battle midget.
I am ready. Got my helmet on. Even got pants.
...I find your lack of a second 'on' disturbing.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 18, 2014, 02:47:46 PM
Dont underestimate our Army trained battle midget.
Please. BattleDwarf
TM.
Thank you. Now get out of my way before I ax your balls.
Jason I left out that 2nd 'on' for the reason you are probably suspecting (fearing)...
Quote from: Gusington on August 19, 2014, 11:18:44 AM
Thank you. Now get out of my way before I ax your balls.
What interrogative statement were you going to inquire of his scrotal area?
its Gus, he likes low hanging fruit.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fassets.diylol.com%2Fhfs%2F939%2F0fa%2Ffd4%2Fresized%2Fgimli-meme-generator-no-one-tosses-a-dwarf-s-salad-ff662d.jpg&hash=9e869dc1173a2dd197221182d1964136efcad19b)
...and to get this sorta back on track...
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Quote
Russia said on Thursday it was investigating dozens of McDonald's restaurants, in what many businessmen said was retaliation for Western sanctions over Ukraine they fear could spread to other symbols of Western capitalism.
Russia's food safety watchdog said it was looking at possible breaches of sanitary rules at McDonald's, but many in the business community said it was a reflection of the deterioration in relations between Russia and the West over Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country are fighting against government forces.
"Obviously, it's driven by the political issues surrounding Ukraine," said Alexis Rodzianko, president and CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia.
source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101937016
Yeah, THAT will go over real well with the Russians if Putin takes away their tasty McDeath burgers. :2funny:
The first McDonald's opened in Moscow in 1990. Within two years the Soviet Union completely collapsed. Coincidence? Maybe Putin trembles at the power of our hamburgers.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on August 21, 2014, 02:48:07 PM
The first McDonald's opened in Moscow in 1990. Within two years the Soviet Union completely collapsed. Coincidence? Maybe Putin trembles at the power of our hamburgers.
LOL
Not the burgers - their (freedom) fries.
Their lack of freedom fries. That would be a good stunt for Kerry, "Russia is denying it's citizens freedom fries by closing western food restaurants." :2funny:
OK, the 'no one tosses a dwarf's salad' made me spit up my goat's milk. Funny!
Reuters and other outlets reporting that Russian troops are bombarding Ukrainian troops, and the Russian convoy has entered Ukraine without permission.
So much for their independence day on the 24th.
It is the weekend, so no one will be watching the news or care.
Quote from: OJsDad on August 22, 2014, 03:51:06 PM
It is the weekend, so no one will be watching the news or care.
What? Did you say something. Sorry, I was watching reruns of I Love Lucy. Can you call back Monday?
Wall St. Journal reports today (8/23) that Russia is sending both troops and material into Eastern Ukraine. It also reports that Russian artillery is supporting the rebellion from positions both inside Ukraine and also inside Russia. There are also considerable additional assets (air, ground, artillery) being assembled close to the border.
They don't want our Freedom Fries anymore.
Crackdown on McDonald's Spreads Across Russia
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/crackdown-on-mcdonald-s-spreads-across-russia/505727.html
You keep linking to the moscow times. My AV flags their site as unsafe, you may want to avoid it.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on August 23, 2014, 01:21:01 PM
You keep linking to the moscow times. My AV flags their site as unsafe, you may want to avoid it.
Norton flags everything as unsafe. Even your own software! :P
I just happened to see these posted elsewhere and thought I would share the comedy.
Quote from: Nefaro on August 23, 2014, 10:27:25 AM
They don't want our Freedom Fries anymore.
Crackdown on McDonald's Spreads Across Russia
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/crackdown-on-mcdonald-s-spreads-across-russia/505727.html
Normally I would say they are just looking for excuses, but in Denmark there has been quite a few incidents lately with Mcdonalds getting very poor reports by our healt inspectores regarding sanitation and using food produkts that should have been destroyed due to being to old.
Quote from: Nefaro on August 23, 2014, 10:27:25 AM
They don't want our Freedom Fries anymore.
Crackdown on McDonald's Spreads Across Russia
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/crackdown-on-mcdonald-s-spreads-across-russia/505727.html
Just remember, we've never fought a war with a country with a McDonald's
That might get re-written into "we've never fought a war with a country with
an open McDonald's"
Quote from: jejo68 on August 24, 2014, 04:25:40 AM
Normally I would say they are just looking for excuses, but in Denmark there has been quite a few incidents lately with Mcdonalds getting very poor reports by our healt inspectores regarding sanitation and using food produkts that should have been destroyed due to being to old.
Remember, a lot of McDonalds are franchises (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchising). Not to defend the company but it is entirely possible that the actual owner of the local franchise is blatantly violating the franchise contract by using food storage and handling methods not approved by McDonalds itself. It's not like they can fire the owner they way they would the manager of an entirely company-owned restaurant. Once a franchisee is up and running the only thing that McDonalds can do to crooked owners is terminate the contract allowing the use of the name and supplying the goods and services needed to operate. From a legal standpoint this may be a tricky thing to do unless the company has legal proof (such as official health code violations) already on record.
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 24, 2014, 06:26:03 AM
Quote from: jejo68 on August 24, 2014, 04:25:40 AM
Normally I would say they are just looking for excuses, but in Denmark there has been quite a few incidents lately with Mcdonalds getting very poor reports by our healt inspectores regarding sanitation and using food produkts that should have been destroyed due to being to old.
Remember, a lot of McDonalds are franchises (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchising). Not to defend the company but it is entirely possible that the actual owner of the local franchise is blatantly violating the franchise contract by using food storage and handling methods not approved by McDonalds itself. It's not like they can fire the owner they way they would the manager of an entirely company-owned restaurant. Once a franchisee is up and running the only thing that McDonalds can do to crooked owners is terminate the contract allowing the use of the name and supplying the goods and services needed to operate. From a legal standpoint this may be a tricky thing to do unless the company has legal proof (such as official health code violations) already on record.
Yeah it just bugs me even though I rarely visits them myself.
For their own sake I hope they handle this right or they will go the way of Burger king here in Denmark.
some years ago there used to be just as many burger Kings as McD in Copenhagen, but after a few sanitation scandals they pretty much all went buttom up so now we have maybe 4 Burger Kings in all of Denmark left. 2 of which is in Copenhagen.
Dont know about the US but here every restaurant is required to put up a visible sign at the entrance with the latest notice from the Health inspectorate where you clearly can se a smiley ranging from very glad to very annoyed. Helps weed out the poor restaurants fairly quickly.
Everyone in the US has their sanitation rating right near the registers where you pay, or else near the front door.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on August 25, 2014, 05:33:17 AM
Everyone in the US has their sanitation rating right near the registers where you pay, or else near the front door.
While the information is usually available online from most state and local gov'ts in all States, I don't believe every state requires the establishment to actually display their score where the public can see it.
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 25, 2014, 06:04:10 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on August 25, 2014, 05:33:17 AM
Everyone in the US has their sanitation rating right near the registers where you pay, or else near the front door.
While the information is usually available online from most state and local gov'ts in all States, I don't believe every state requires the establishment to actually display their score where the public can see it.
OK, I'll amend - every restaurant I can recall in all of the 35 or so states I've been to has had their sanitation rating right near the registers where you pay, or else near the front door
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/10599583_10152674745714885_1025344182990334455_n.png?oh=7f55e7a45a593bad64cbbe370b20534c&oe=547077C5&__gda__=1416030334_8434066665ac7db8233a231f306223e2)
Quote from: bayonetbrant on August 27, 2014, 12:07:22 PM
(https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-xap1/v/t1.0-9/s720x720/10599583_10152674745714885_1025344182990334455_n.png?oh=7f55e7a45a593bad64cbbe370b20534c&oe=547077C5&__gda__=1416030334_8434066665ac7db8233a231f306223e2)
No there's a map a LT could read. Maybe.
It's a old fashioned conventional war over there now and no one seems to give a crap.
things are pretty messed up. Real trouble with ISIS in Iraq/Syria, border violations and outright incursions in Ukraine, ebola outbreak in Africa... what's next?
You just had to go and ask, didn't you?
Please God! He didn't know what he was asking! Have mercy!!!
Quote from: endfire79 on August 27, 2014, 07:18:11 PMthings are pretty messed up. Real trouble with ISIS in Iraq/Syria, border violations and outright incursions in Ukraine, ebola outbreak in Africa... what's next?
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg1.wikia.nocookie.net%2F__cb20120119211758%2Fghostbusters%2Fimages%2F6%2F68%2FStayPuftbio.png&hash=b55291e96b0ddcc9900051dfc242ffcf0c9608fd)
I can't believe you did that, Endfire. I hope I am not around when someone asks you if you're a god.
... to which I would reply I used to be a God, and now I'm a goddamn Greek 8)
because Greek drama ends well.....
dick punch yourself.
Japan... ::)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.ksk.uproxx.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F07%2Fdickpunch.gif&hash=ffc5160d5cbbd44d60b52c2e10124428a5a47383)
Nice, explains their birthrate problem ;)
Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice...
Hahahahaha
http://www.duffelblog.com/2014/08/russian-soldiers-ukraine/
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbayonetgames.com%2Fblogart%2Froflmao.gif&hash=e0b0f78c744c09f66fe569bc8a99b54b70188b19)
QuoteRussia Claims Ukrainian Border Inexplicably Jumped Over Its Paratroopers
MOSCOW – In a surprising concession, the Kremlin announced Thursday that soldiers captured in Ukraine earlier this week were indeed from the elite First Airborne Division of the Russian Air-Landing Forces (VDV), but it was due to the Ukrainian border inexplicably jumping over them "out of nowhere," sources confirmed.
"This is all very simple misunderstanding comrades," Defense Minister Pyotr Rurikid assured reporters at a televised press conference. "Ukraine is very unstable country, no? Event at Chernobyl was fault of lazy Ukrainian serfs at helm of complicated machinery. Ever since border between Russia and Ukraine been fluid. Question?"
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed the troopers were acting in a peacekeeping role with direct orders to remain on their side of the border, and that the Ukrainian border intentionally sneaked in behind them.
According to sources at a press conference in Moscow, a reporter from Russia Today, a known bastion of free speech and journalistic integrity which is in no way a Kremlin propaganda outlet, asked if the aforementioned paratroopers were indeed delivering humanitarian aid to the innocent orphans and adorable puppy dogs of Donetsk.
"These things happen all of times in former Soviet Bloc," said Rurikid, as his face lit up with a winsome smile while completely ignoring the question. "Subjects and verbs switched for humorous effect. Is slyly poke of fun at ponderous bureaucracy. I tell you other one. Why did road cross fat mother-in-law of dirty Ukrainian muzhik?"
At press time, the Kremlin had also announced that the Ukrainian border has further leapt over three Russian armored divisions and a corps of motorized infantry, who are at present speeding towards Kiev to right things with the nearest cartographer.
That actually sounds like the sort of explanation I would really expect from the Russian government :)
It's better than the 'whatchu talkin' 'bout Willis' that they are currently serving. BTW the crisis there has now become a war formany news outlets. I think the influx of hundreds of regular Russian troops was the deciding factor on what to call it.
NATO released satellite imagery of Russian artillery and armored vehicles operating in Ukraine:
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/28/world/gallery/nato-images-show-russian-forces-in-ukraine/index.html?hpt=hp_c1 (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/28/world/gallery/nato-images-show-russian-forces-in-ukraine/index.html?hpt=hp_c1)
It seems for now, though, that the ongoing maskirovka of denying that Russian troops are in Ukraine has pretty well delayed any response from the west past when it could really be decisive. Hopefully the Ukrainians have been preparing for this if it escalates further.
Another interesting article with pictures, a CNN reporter photographed some Pro-Russian forces burying their dead:
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/23/world/europe/ukraine-donetsk-rebel-funeral/index.html?hpt=hp_t1 (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/23/world/europe/ukraine-donetsk-rebel-funeral/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)
I found the photos interesting for a few reasons; 1) the men in the photos generally look older, bearing our partially at least one of the Russian claims that many of the rebels are retirees, not active military (of course, that is nowhere near the whole truth, but seems a clever use of a small truth to tell a big lie), 2) They seem to dress and carry themselves like soldiers, not 'guys with guns' like a lot of 'rebels' you see on TV. Several are wearing the distinctive blue and white striped undershirts of the Russian VDV. 3)There is at least one woman in uniform with the group. 4) What appear to be family members are at the burial.
All that to say that the Russians seem to be (unsurprisingly) mixing truth with lies in a sophisticated attempt to create enough confusion to forestall a western response...not that a decisive military response seems very possible right now.
Well we seem to be sending over some M1s to east Europe for exercises.
Roll out!
Quote from: endfire79 on August 28, 2014, 08:09:30 PM
Roll out!
#
So what happens if Ukraine now gets NATO membership and the Russians are still there. War ?
Ukraine isn't likely to get NATO membership any time soon. The point of NATO is to have a strong united deterrence against aggression. Adding a member while it is in the midst of a civil war with active Russian participation would introduce a chink in the armor, so to speak. The threat of NATO involvement in aiding the Kiev gov't may be useful in countering Russian ambitions but actually adding Ukraine to the rolls of NATO members would automatically invoke Article 5 (http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_5).
And, yes, that would be War.
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 29, 2014, 06:57:56 AM
Ukraine isn't likely to get NATO membership any time soon. The point of NATO is to have a strong united deterrence against aggression. Adding a member while it is in the midst of a civil war with active Russian participation would introduce a chink in the armor, so to speak. The threat of NATO involvement in aiding the Kiev gov't may be useful in countering Russian ambitions but actually adding Ukraine to the rolls of NATO members would automatically invoke Article 5 (http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_5).
And, yes, that would be War.
Unless things change within Russia itself and soon, sooner or later we will have a war with Russia. The sooner the West gets that and implements real preventive action the better.
Not with nukes on both sides and definitely not over Ukraine.
Quote from: Gusington on August 29, 2014, 07:14:45 AM
Not with nukes on both sides and definitely not over Ukraine.
If you want to avoid war with nukes better give the Russians a slap now over Ukraine. It the war is over something else (NATO country) the chances of nuke use increase.
I think it may be now or never for the Russians in regards to Ukraine. Despite their assertions earlier I'm reading that the sanctions are really starting to bite in their economy.
Quote from: panzerde on August 29, 2014, 07:30:52 AM
I think it may be now or never for the Russians in regards to Ukraine. Despite their assertions earlier I'm reading that the sanctions are really starting to bite in their economy.
Perhaps, but I don't think Putin cares that much about the state of the economy as it effects ordinary people in Russia. Unfortunately the decades of indoctrination have created a pliable populace easily impressed by visions of "Great Russia".
What about Moldova? Mom, newstrolling around, thought she heard a twitch yesterday about movement on their border. (Don't know where she heard it.)
Interesting commentary: http://mashable.com/2014/08/28/putins-endgame/?utm_campaign=Mash-Prod-RSS-Feedburner-All-Partial&utm_cid=Mash-Prod-RSS-Feedburner-All-Partial&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=rss
Oh the Cold War, how I didn't miss you.
Time to dust off my old copy of Bravo Romeo Delta and see if it'll run on dosbox.
They will only get more bold as everyone in the EU starts sucking their fuel. I guess they will just bury their head in sand on that point.
Quote from: panzerde on August 29, 2014, 09:10:58 AM
Interesting commentary: http://mashable.com/2014/08/28/putins-endgame/?utm_campaign=Mash-Prod-RSS-Feedburner-All-Partial&utm_cid=Mash-Prod-RSS-Feedburner-All-Partial&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=rss
"Moscow bankers have started to drink on Tuesdays with the determination of men who know they need to party before the whole system goes up in flames."
...so, business as usual then! ::)
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 29, 2014, 06:57:56 AM
Ukraine isn't likely to get NATO membership any time soon. The point of NATO is to have a strong united deterrence against aggression. Adding a member while it is in the midst of a civil war with active Russian participation would introduce a chink in the armor, so to speak. The threat of NATO involvement in aiding the Kiev gov't may be useful in countering Russian ambitions but actually adding Ukraine to the rolls of NATO members would automatically invoke Article 5 (http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty#Article_5).
And, yes, that would be War.
Yes I agree - I couldn't rationally see Ukraine getting NATO membership anytime soon - certainly not in the middle of an undeclared war with Russia. Certainly article 5 would mean war otherwise the whole organisation is pointless.
What I was more interested in was NATO's response to the Ukrainian statement about joining. It seemed very welcoming - as though it may be expedited in some way - given the flak Bush took in 2008 for suggesting they could join I wonder at the NATO statement as its hardly built to bring Putin back into line - more to inflame the situation. As far as Putin is concerned the west broke an agreement not to extend NATO into the former soviet republics and this is how he sees the world and is largely driving his actions now.
Quote from: JasonPratt on August 29, 2014, 11:39:03 AM
"Moscow bankers have started to drink on Tuesdays with the determination of men who know they need to party before the whole system goes up in flames."
...so, business as usual then! ::)
I interpreted that as them being particularly sobered by the situation. I mean, they aren't drinking now on
Monday!
There's a reason eu4 won't let you form an alliance while you're at war!
I think it was Reuters or Politico that reported today that internal Russian memos have started calling the area of conflict New Russia, a phrase from czarist times.
Help me Rhonda.
It's all a video game says the Russians.
"The satellite photos NATO released showing "Russian combat troops inside Ukraine" prove nothing, Russia's foreign minister said Friday. In fact, he thinks they may be from a video game."
http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/08/29/nato-satellite-photos-of-russian-troops-in-ukraine-they-turned-out-to-be-images-from-video-games-lavrov-says/ (http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/08/29/nato-satellite-photos-of-russian-troops-in-ukraine-they-turned-out-to-be-images-from-video-games-lavrov-says/)
Quote from: Gusington on August 29, 2014, 03:02:05 PM
I think it was Reuters or Politico that reported today that internal Russian memos have started calling the area of conflict New Russia, a phrase from czarist times.
Help me Rhonda.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11062748/Vladimir-Putin-praises-successes-of-rebel-army-of-New-Russia.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11062748/Vladimir-Putin-praises-successes-of-rebel-army-of-New-Russia.html)
Now please! Don't call me Rhonda ;)
Edit: added link
The wargamer in me really wats to see a US armored brigade with proper support mix it up with the Ruskis.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2014, 03:58:31 PM
The wargamer in me really wats to see a US armored brigade with proper support mix it up with the Ruskis.
I'd like to see
1. B2's take on
Soviet Russian air defense.
2. A10's versus Russian armor.
3. Marines landing in Vladivostok
4. Carrier Battle Groups operating in the Black Sea and the Barents Sea.
Putin rattling the nuclear saber:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/29/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?c=homepage-t (http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/29/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?c=homepage-t)
Somebody go get Rumsfeld. We may need to fight fire with fire here.
QuoteIf Ukraine folds easily to Russia's military might, neighboring nations might have good reason to worry.
if they go after anything else then they get to play with the NATO varsity. >:D
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Quote from: panzerde on August 29, 2014, 08:38:37 PM
Somebody go get Rumsfeld. We may need to fight fire with fire here.
Or we will end up creating massive two-pole Ego Singularity.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 29, 2014, 08:47:46 PM
QuoteIf Ukraine folds easily to Russia's military might, neighboring nations might have good reason to worry.
if they go after anything else then they get to play with the NATO varsity. >:
Yourforgetting who the US President is. It will take himmonths to admit that anything is wrong. By then the T80 will be on the English Channel.
ya never know.
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140828/DEFREG01/308280039/US-Military-Send-Tanks-E-Europe-Drills
O0
look for F-15 deployments to Germany as the next step. if we put a squadron or two of F-22s in England shit will be serious.
Shit is serious in a 1939 sort of way, and on multiple fronts. It would be cool if the POTUS could see that and get his head from betwixt his buttocks.
Quote from: Gusington on August 30, 2014, 09:06:55 AM
Shit is serious in a 1939 sort of way, and on multiple fronts. It would be cool if the POTUS could see that and get his head from betwixt his buttocks.
Yea, well, he still won't admit the Hassan from the Ft Hood murders is a terrorist. So it may take him well after he's no longer president to admit that.
You guys really want to start a shooting war with Russia? Sanctions are really beginning to hurt and will be more effective than starting a land war where the last successful invader were the mongols
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/08/28/western-sanctions-and-rising-debts-are-already-strangling-the-russian-economy/
Shooting first has worked out so well for the US in the past decade
Con
I agree that what Russia is doing is complete bullshit, but what vital US national interest is served by starting a shooting war in Ukraine? Seriously - suppose we deployed 1CAV and 82ABN to Kyiv. Then what?
Starting a land war with Russia is insane.
That said, what is Putin going to do when faced with a tanking economy thanks to those sanctions? Will *his* starting a shooting war going to help his economy, or become a means for him to save face?
I can well imagine the Russian media spinning economic woes as being the West's fault, not Russia's. It wouldn't be a difficult stretch for them to get them worked up enough to want to start such a land war. Their media is just as good at pimping the Putin regime as ours is at doing the same for Obama's.
While we certainly wouldn't (and shouldn't) start such a thing, it might be inevitable unless cooler heads start getting reasonable.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on August 30, 2014, 09:56:56 AM
I agree that what Russia is doing is complete bullshit, but what vital US national interest is served by starting a shooting war in Ukraine? Seriously - suppose we deployed 1CAV and 82ABN to Kyiv. Then what?
Not much probably.
Quote from: Con on August 30, 2014, 09:40:50 AM
You guys really want to start a shooting war with Russia? Sanctions are really beginning to hurt and will be more effective than starting a land war where the last successful invader were the mongols
Con
It's the only way, from the east, across the steppe. Economic sanctions have had real effect in Iran. I can assume Russia would trade more with the BRICs maybe. But I also think they are wary of the Chinese getting too cozy on their Eastern border. What Russia is trying with Ukraine, could China also try with them in the east ?
Potentially it would end the greed for "new russia". They may back away before too much face is lost.
2 things are for sure:
-as long as the EU keeps giving fuel 10s of billions to Russia every year, Russia will be able to fund further aggression.
-once Russia has taken Ukraine there will be other countries next. He will have the bit in his teeth. His ego will be even more megalomaniac. A military response at that point will be far more likely to come to an exchange of a few nukes.
Some EU politicians will do nothing until Cossacks are raping their families. Yes, that is overly dramatic, but these people better wake the fuck up.
Keep in mind that Red Storm Rising started over economic problems. The west may not want a shooting war but Russia may want something different.
I had the feeling it was going to come to war when the news released a picture of Obama staring down Putin across a table muck like the old picture of Nixon vs Brezhnev. My guess was that the new picture was a response to China leaking that the Russians asked them to destabilize fannie and freddie. That put Obama in the FU mindset. Unfortunately that was a stupid thing to do to a torturing KGB man. He has had the FU back attitude since.
I also think Putin correctly reads Obama as unwilling to fight them until he absolutely has to. As soon as the nobel committee decided to give Obama that prize I thought that is a stupid thing to do to a sitting President (I probably posted that). So if Putin goes after all of non-NATO in the area he may get away with it. To prevent an insurgency he will replace all the people in new russia with Russians. Undesirables will get Siberian hotel.
So yes, maybe China has set the 2 biggest threats to their Empire to fight each other. One way or another, it seems a limited fight against Russia is coming. The time for not aggravating the situation by military buildup is over. NATO needs to project a real war footing to stop this now.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on August 30, 2014, 09:56:56 AM
I agree that what Russia is doing is complete bullshit, but what vital US national interest is served by starting a shooting war in Ukraine? Seriously - suppose we deployed 1CAV and 82ABN to Kyiv. Then what?
That line of thinking is, I believe, exactly what Putin is counting on.
And he's not wrong to do so. There's plenty of other people that *could* take action but are, thus far, failing to do so. I'd they lack the capability, well... that's a hard way to learn that lesson but it needs to be learned.
What are the chances of Merkel acting alone?
Pretty low. That aint yer grandad's Bundeswehr she's got to work with. It's pretty tiny compared to what it was in it's heyday. Germany has switched from being a military powerhouse to being an economic one.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on August 30, 2014, 04:36:36 PM
And he's not wrong to do so. There's plenty of other people that *could* take action but are, thus far, failing to do so. I'd they lack the capability, well... that's a hard way to learn that lesson but it needs to be learned.
+1
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on August 30, 2014, 05:01:06 PM
What are the chances of Merkel acting alone?
I'd say zero
A) She's *the* European leader who's got the most to lose
B) As a EU member, Germany is restricted by Brussels.
C) Even if she wanted to, military interventions doesn't sit well with the majority of Germans.
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 30, 2014, 05:49:22 PM
Pretty low. That aint yer grandad's Bundeswehr she's got to work with. It's pretty tiny compared to what it was in it's heyday. Germany has switched from being a military powerhouse to being an economic one.
Its still counted amongst the top 10 military strength in the World so not so tiny.
In what category? I'd never doubt the German military's professionalism but it's listed as number 30 in active military personnel on Globalfirepower.com, with 183,000 service personnel as compared to Russia's 766,000, and only 400 tanks vs Russia's 15,500. Artillery, 185 v. approx. 10,000. Unit for unit the Germans might outmatch the Russians by a wide margin but overall the numbers are not in their favor as far as a conventional land war goes.
one key part of that question is where all those troops are. The Russians might have a whole lot more, but where are they? The guys in Vladivostok aren't really in position to influence events in Ukraine right now. Pretty much everyone the Germans have are pretty close to relative to any Russian unit stationed east of the Ural Mountains
That's true. The German military benefits from a number of logistical advantages that would allow it to get a greater percentage of it's troops to the fight (assuming it's only as far as Ukraine) in a shorter time so if we are talking about a few skirmishes Germany has the advantage. However, give Russia a few weeks and it will be able to gain tactical air superiority with it's much larger tactical air power. This will allow them to move more units into the battlefield without fear of being shot up by the German tactical air units. German AA units may take out many of the Russian aircraft but the Russians are probably not as squeamish about losing them as the Western nations are. The only way Germany can take on Russia is with Full NATO air power overhead. Once you throw that into the mix you might as well bring in the rest of NATO as well.
all that said, there's no PR advantage nearly as big as that which the Russians will gain if the Germans invade territory the Russians say is their's. The entire nation will flock to Putin as soon as one German crosses that border. Doesn't matter how right the Germans are. I know it; you know it; everybody else knows it
Quote from: bayonetbrant on August 31, 2014, 09:48:07 AM
all that said, there's no PR advantage nearly as big as that which the Russians will gain if the Germans invade territory the Russians say is their's. The entire nation will flock to Putin as soon as one German crosses that border. Doesn't matter how right the Germans are. I know it; you know it; everybody else knows it
+1. There's no way we'll see German armor outside of Kiev anytime soon, even with NATO participation. Having said that, I doubt we'll see NATO forces in Ukraine no matter what, regardless of who sits in the White House. This is going to be economic and digital.
I would rather not see a shooting war but at some point you would think the international community is going to have to stop "speaking softly" and start using the "big stick." Unless you would consider economic sanctions the "big stick."
So I guess my questions would be what needs to happen or how far does the world let Putin go before the only option is military in nature?
Quote from: TheCommandTent on August 31, 2014, 11:57:53 AM
I would rather not see a shooting war but at some point you would think the international community is going to have to stop "speaking softly" and start using the "big stick." Unless you would consider economic sanctions the "big stick."
So I guess my questions would be what needs to happen or how far does the world let Putin go before the only option is military in nature?
Lets see, he's taken parts of Georgia and Ukraine already. Now he wants more Ukraine.
In 1936 if the French had stood up to Hitler when he sent troops into the Rhineland, then perhaps things would have turned out very different. But today the west has the same question that France and England did in the '30's, "Whats Putin's end game. What is his ultimate goal." Without knowing that and what the west is willing to give up to allow him to have it, it's very hard to decide where to draw that line.
Quote from: Con on August 30, 2014, 09:40:50 AM
You guys really want to start a shooting war with Russia? Sanctions are really beginning to hurt and will be more effective than starting a land war where the last successful invader were the mongols
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/08/28/western-sanctions-and-rising-debts-are-already-strangling-the-russian-economy/
Shooting first has worked out so well for the US in the past decade
Con
And yet, Russia has gotten more aggressive since the news has been reporting the impact the economic sanctions are having. So are they really working, or is Putin deciding he cannot wait any longer.
Great posts above. What is Putin's end game? To restore part of the USSR, or all of it?
Sanctions seem to play into Putin's moves as trade amongst New Russian partners increases as it falls with the West.
There's also some strange mumblings coming from what I thought were Western partners, like Hungary. I don't have any current links but in the last month I've seen a couple of Reuters stories on how pro-Russian Hungary's government has come. Not sure if any other central European nations are doing the same thing.
Weird.
Speaking of Russian friends, Serbia's been kinda quiet lately. ???
^I can imagine Serbia quietly cheering the Russians on.
Quote from: Staggerwing on August 31, 2014, 09:08:16 AM
In what category? I'd never doubt the German military's professionalism but it's listed as number 30 in active military personnel on Globalfirepower.com, with 183,000 service personnel as compared to Russia's 766,000, and only 400 tanks vs Russia's 15,500. Artillery, 185 v. approx. 10,000. Unit for unit the Germans might outmatch the Russians by a wide margin but overall the numbers are not in their favor as far as a conventional land war goes.
yeah well on paper the russian fleet in Sevastopol is pretty amazing, until you see that 9/10 are out of order.
at least half their tanks are nonfunctional in there current state, same with their airfleet.
Most of the materiel is shitty old stuff, compared to state of the art from germany.
etc etc.
btw russia is listed as nr 2 in the World so im in no way saying they would be a pushover, but just as germany wouldnt be able to conquor russia, the same holds true the other way around. Russia simply cannot spare the material needed to take on germany given the neighbours they have.
Where do you get these high % in disrepair numbers? It seems very unlikely that they would not have fixed that before starting a war.
well the might fix most of whats wrong with what theyre sending into action. the simple truth is that they just dont have the money to maintain their vast stockpiles in a ready state.
Surprise.
"Two diplomats said they did not rule out a ban on the purchases of Russian sovereign bonds to make it more difficult for the Russian government to finance itself on markets. The measure, however, might have little direct impact on Russia in the near term, as it has limited borrowing needs. Rich from oil and gas revenues, Russia has canceled many domestic bond auctions as the Ukraine conflict has pushed up its borrowing costs above acceptable levels. It has halved its domestic borrowing plans to 435 billion rubles ($12 billion) this year and has already raised more than half of that lower sum. Foreign buyers so far accounted for a quarter of the sales.
...
"But we can see from the PMI number today that Russia has considerable resilience. It also has high reserve levels, low debt, and a flexible exchange rate. By contrast, Europe's economy seems to be crumbling," Dehn said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/01/us-ukraine-crisis-sanctions-idUSKBN0GW28620140901 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/01/us-ukraine-crisis-sanctions-idUSKBN0GW28620140901)
And guess what, EU fuel purchases paid for most of it.
Wait...the EU economy is crumbling again??
Quote from: Gusington on September 01, 2014, 09:05:46 PM
Wait...the EU economy is crumbling again??
Unfortunately.
Someone around here used to cheer for a round of deflation to solve our woes. Hopefully he has learned the error of his ways.
The ECB (European Central Bank) actually made its lending rate negative: it is now paying banks to take money from it.
Bad news indeed.
QuoteThe fear is that weak price pressures could ultimately trigger a dangerous deflationary spiral, where consumers and businesses put off spending amid expectations that prices will fall further still.
source: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/03/eurozone-inflation-fall-deflation-european-central-bank-interest-rate-cut
And back on topic...
QuoteVladimir Putin has boasted to European leaders that his forces could sweep into Kiev in two weeks if he wanted.
The Russian president reportedly made the threat to the European Commission president during talks on the Ukraine crisis.
Mr Putin told Jose Manuel Barroso: "If I want to, I can take Kiev in two weeks," Italy's La Repubblica newspaper reported, implying this could be the result if the EU stepped up sanctions against Russia.
source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11069070/I-can-take-Kiev-in-two-weeks-Vladimir-Putin-warns-European-leaders.html
Two weeks? I'm not so sure.
Russia should know better than to invade a country on the verge of winter...
Quote from: LongBlade on September 01, 2014, 11:14:42 PMRussia should know better than to invade a country on the verge of winter...
yeah, but if anyone knows how to be prepared for brutal winters, it's them
Quote from: bayonetbrant on September 02, 2014, 05:03:21 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on September 01, 2014, 11:14:42 PMRussia should know better than to invade a country on the verge of winter...
yeah, but if anyone knows how to be prepared for brutal winters, it's them
Russians are not some supermen. they got their buts kicked in the winter before. Russian record of fighting alone is pretty dismal, so a shooting war with them is not so crazy. Sanctions should be radically increased and military options should be threatened, while a military aid is given to the Ukrainians, plus some unmarked electronic countermeasures planes to allow for the Ukrainian air force an ability to do more air support. Putin only sees a military solution, and Obama seems to be bringing a speech to a gunfight. If we don't stop him now it will get much worse.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/anne-applebaum-war-in-europe-is-not-a-hysterical-idea/2014/08/29/815f29d4-2f93-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html
Putin apparently told an EU official that Russian troops could seize Kiev in two weeks if they chose:
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/09/02/ukraine-shifts-tactics-against-rebels-while-claiming-full-scale-invasion-by/ (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/09/02/ukraine-shifts-tactics-against-rebels-while-claiming-full-scale-invasion-by/)
Of course, it's all just a misunderstanding: "Yuri Ushakov told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday that Putin's statement was 'quoted out of context and carried a completely different meaning.'"
Not sure what other meaning that could be...
Listening to BBC Radio this morning, and they're now reporting that NATO is planning to put together a rapid reaction force.
QuoteNATO Weighs Rapid Response Force for Eastern Europe
WASHINGTON — As Ukrainian leaders warned on Monday of "a great war" with Russia, NATO leaders meeting in Wales this week were expected to endorse their most concrete response yet to increased Russian military intervention in Ukraine: establishing a rapid-reaction force capable of deploying quickly to Eastern Europe, officials of the alliance said.
The new force of some 4,000 troops, capable of moving on 48 hours' notice, will be supported with logistics and equipment pre-positioned in Eastern European countries closer to Russia, with an upgraded schedule of military exercises and deployments that are intended to make NATO's commitment of collective defense more credible and enhance its deterrence.
More at the link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/02/world/europe/nato-to-create-a-rapid-response-force-for-eastern-europe-officials-say.html?_r=0
(I'm actually rather surprised that the NY Times has an article that's not taking a negative view of this. Then again they are mentioning Obama as much as NATO, so take it as you will.)
Putin really meant to say 1 week.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on September 02, 2014, 08:09:19 AMListening to BBC Radio this morning, and they're now reporting that NATO is planning to put together a rapid reaction force.
If they were all that "rapid," the news would be reporting on the overnight deployment of the rapid reaction force that's already in place before anyone realized it
Quote from: Gusington on September 02, 2014, 08:12:26 AM
Putin really meant to say 1 week.
I hadn't had my coffee yet. I thought he said 'I could take Kiev in 1 week, while riding shirtless on a bear.
Quote from: pawelj on September 02, 2014, 05:14:26 AM
Putin only sees a military solution, and Obama seems to be bringing a speech to a gunfight. If we don't stop him now it will get much worse.
I agree with that. If you watch the clips of him talking in crowds sitting town hall style he is comparing to WWII saying in such a war the casualties will be in the 1000s and 10,000s.
Imagine the horror of all the paper shufflers when they realize their only skills are becoming useless to countries needing to make war materials.
Quote from: LongBlade on September 01, 2014, 11:13:05 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 01, 2014, 09:05:46 PM
Wait...the EU economy is crumbling again??
Unfortunately.
Someone around here used to cheer for a round of deflation to solve our woes. Hopefully he has learned the error of his ways.
The ECB (European Central Bank) actually made its lending rate negative: it is now paying banks to take money from it.
Bad news indeed.
QuoteThe fear is that weak price pressures could ultimately trigger a dangerous deflationary spiral, where consumers and businesses put off spending amid expectations that prices will fall further still.
source: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/03/eurozone-inflation-fall-deflation-european-central-bank-interest-rate-cut
Who was asking for deflation? What did they think it would solve?
Quote from: endfire79 on September 02, 2014, 08:35:16 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 02, 2014, 08:12:26 AM
Putin really meant to say 1 week.
I hadn't had my coffee yet. I thought he said 'I could take Kiev in 1 week, while riding shirtless on a bear.
Yeah, it's the round trip that would be 2 weeks.
This is the "I look forward to torturing you." Look.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs1.reutersmedia.net%2Fresources%2Fmedia%2Fglobal%2Fassets%2Fimages%2F20140902%2F20140902_694286220140902104011.jpg&hash=69384564d877b0f3d8ff380bc8808c17ae61b59f)
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 01, 2014, 06:51:26 PM
Where do you get these high % in disrepair numbers? It seems very unlikely that they would not have fixed that before starting a war.
First of, of the 15500 tanks in the russian arsenal only around 2600 is operational, rest is kept in reserve in a more or less servicable state. Second most of the russian tanks that actually do Work consist of old T72 tanks which, well frankly, were obsolete even during the first gulf war.
Second, as for the russian fleet in Sevastopol, well if you know anything about the russian navy then you would know 2 Things. First the ships that are indeed still operational get alot less time at sea then the equivalent Nato ships, and 2 most of their ships are stripped Down hulls with a skeleton crew just so you can pay the sailors and artificially inflate the size of the navy. Unfortunately I dont have access to Janes any more but they have had a few reports on this.
There airforce is even worse off, as alot of the pilots are just barely making the minimum flying time required to maintain a mediocrum capability. In fact one of the squadrons tasked with guarding moscva used to hire out the planes to civilians just to give the pilots some airtime.
Personel wise, well the army is fairly big with 750k enlisted personel, but first of they have to cover a vast territory against neighbours that doesnt exactly want to send christmass presents to russia (unless we talk tactical nukes) and secondly they are really poorly trained, poorly equipt and they Arent exactly highly motivated on top.
As for how I know that, well Janes, CIA factbook etc are good for getting hard data, and I since my exwife is russian with family ties to both the former KGB and army intelligence, I have talked to some interesting people.
But most of all this is not some big secret, the info is out there on the scary WWW for the picking.
Lastly look at how big a clusterfuck Gorgia and Chetchnya was, is that the sign of a well tuned, highly trained army ?
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 02, 2014, 08:44:25 AM
Quote from: endfire79 on September 02, 2014, 08:35:16 AM
Quote from: Gusington on September 02, 2014, 08:12:26 AM
Putin really meant to say 1 week.
I hadn't had my coffee yet. I thought he said 'I could take Kiev in 1 week, while riding shirtless on a bear.
Yeah, it's the round trip that would be 2 weeks.
He might be able to take Kiev in 1-2 weeks, but have fun holding it and the rest of the Ukraine. I doubt the Ukrainians would take kindly to yet another Russian occupation. And if a large portion of the Russian army found itself tied down in Ukraine, how long would it be before Chechnya and other disgruntled regions flare up again?
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 02, 2014, 08:42:42 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on September 01, 2014, 11:13:05 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 01, 2014, 09:05:46 PM
Wait...the EU economy is crumbling again??
Unfortunately.
Someone around here used to cheer for a round of deflation to solve our woes. Hopefully he has learned the error of his ways.
The ECB (European Central Bank) actually made its lending rate negative: it is now paying banks to take money from it.
Bad news indeed.
QuoteThe fear is that weak price pressures could ultimately trigger a dangerous deflationary spiral, where consumers and businesses put off spending amid expectations that prices will fall further still.
source: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/03/eurozone-inflation-fall-deflation-european-central-bank-interest-rate-cut
Who was asking for deflation? What did they think it would solve?
The solution was to make things more affordable.
As to who? We'll see if the guilty comes forward on his own.
We have certainly seen recently what a few hundred motivated troops can do against 50,000 dismal troops equipped with modern fighting gear... :buck2:
And as noted, Russia doesn't have much modern fighting gear, much less in good repair and ready to go. Their Hinds, and maybe a ton of arty, could be the best things they have going for them.
Would "Huns" "invading" the Ukraine again get them sufficiently motivated to win such a fight? It might motivate them to try, but more likely it would motivate them to tac-nuke the areas. Doubtless much of that would depend on whether Germany tries a Petersburg-to-Moscow-to-Caucasus push again, which logistically would be impossible for them to even try.
On the other hand, just how much could Germany commit to a Ukrainian defense counterthrust while making sure Russian troops on other nearby borders don't attempt a strategic flank? Russia doubtless has whatever ubertruppen it has deployed on its western front(s) already, but even mouth-breathing idiots could cause serious problems if generally unopposed. That would proportionately cut down Germany's ability to lend aid to Kiev et al.
After much study, I have concluded that Putin just does not give a f@ck about what Obama, Merkel or the West in general think or threaten. He sees a paper tiger and a potential threat in NATO at the same time, in his backyard. Granting Ukraine membership in NATO now would be ridiculous. The Russian mission here is to rebuild a new USSR. The West can prepare for a conflict, but not much beyond that. What the West should try really hard to prevent is a coziness between Russia and China.
I agree
Putin was always going to want to stir up trouble to prevent the Ukraine from leaning more left towards the West. It was never in the cards that there was going to be direct NATO/US involvement there so I see that more as a fact than a bluff. However he is playing a long-term losing hand by giving NATO a new purpose, re invigorating Western resolve on defense spending, having his only source of money (oil and gas) drop alarmingly as the West will switch to alternatives. He is running out of time and runway so hi best bet is to be bellicose to see what he can grab before he restarts the charm offensive to try and win back the Euros and dollars his economy needs.
Con
Quote from: Gusington on September 02, 2014, 01:09:16 PM
What the West should try really hard to prevent is a coziness between Russia and China.
I agree.
Ceasefire.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
But is it a gaza ceasefire?
Quote from: Centurion40 on September 03, 2014, 07:54:26 AM
Ceasefire.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Or "reloading" ;)
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 03, 2014, 08:10:24 AM
But is it a gaza ceasefire?
Quote from: bayonetbrant on September 03, 2014, 08:12:55 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on September 03, 2014, 07:54:26 AM
Ceasefire.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/03/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Or "reloading" ;)
Yeah, that's more what I'm thinking. This is merely a brief pause, nothing more.
It's wishful thinking at this point to think they will stop to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. They will take at least half, probably all of the country. All the peace posturing is to get the Ukrainians milling around not knowing what to do.
Those loaded Russian APCs will keep tear-assing over the border through the rebel corridor. They will just shoot a little less while doing so.
For now...
I agree with above posts. Notice how this cease fire occurs while the NATO summit is going on? When that is over, put your helmet back on. Putin is clearly trying to off balance Ukraine, NATO, the US, the West, Tarzan, Tonto and Frankenstein.
I expected Tonto would fall for it, but Tarzan? Damn. Frankenstein doesn't give a fig, he will strangle anybody.
"Separately Poland has given details of military exercises to be held later this month in Ukraine.
A defence ministry statement said the exercises, codenamed Rapid Trident 14, will involve hundreds of soldiers from Nato member states including the US."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29052599
What a great idea. Maybe USN can make a port visit to Odessa. What is Russia going to do fire on a visiting ship?
^Don't dare them. The mood they're in they are capable of almost anything, it looks like.
Don't dare Frankenstein either.
well then we wont send 1 ship.
we'll send a CVBG. :knuppel2:
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 03, 2014, 07:39:21 PM
well then we wont send 1 ship.
we'll send a CVBG. :knuppel2:
Well be luck to send a softly worded statement at this point.
Because of all the West-born bastages who joined Fargin' IS-hole it's now illegal to volunteer to fight for a foreign power, even one nominally friendly to the US such as Ukraine.
OTOH, it might still be legal if one is getting paid for it so if Ukraine can afford it (or gets a really good defered-payment plan) maybe we will see the return of private militaries with influential friends in the CIA.
there goes your French Foreign Legion career
Quote from: bayonetbrant on September 03, 2014, 08:50:41 PM
there goes your French Foreign Legion career
Funny, I actually had an uncle who was a Legionnaire. I've only heard a few stories about him since he wasn't a first uncle and I had always thought he served in French Indochina in the 50's but I heard recently that he might have fought in Algeria.
I'm surprised the French nutted up and halted delivery of the first Mistral.
to its credit, 21st century France has grown a pair.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 03, 2014, 05:53:34 PM
"Separately Poland has given details of military exercises to be held later this month in Ukraine.
A defence ministry statement said the exercises, codenamed Rapid Trident 14, will involve hundreds of soldiers from Nato member states including the US."
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29052599
What a great idea. Maybe USN can make a port visit to Odessa. What is Russia going to do fire on a visiting ship?
Isnt that how the October Russian Revolution started? Signal fire by the Cruiser Aurora
Conrad
the Commies werent to keen on our 2 destroyers overwatching the Olympics. besides having more firepower then everything else combined their signals and electronic warfare departments were working overtime.
Quote from: Staggerwing on September 03, 2014, 09:21:05 PMbut I heard recently that he might have fought in Algeria.
yeah, but on which side?! ;)
Most likely the one that paid better.
I think calling them Commies at this point is pretty legit and fair. The image that stands out to me this week is of one of the Russians next to his APC in Ukraine with the Soviet flag painted on it. And to think I believed that fighting for an ideology was passe!
^^ Not necessarily so much an ideology, as the last time Russia seemed long-term competent Imperially.
...okay, that's also an ideology, but not necessarily communism.
Yeah, I'd view the Soviet flag as a symbol of military potency, even geographic hegemony and not necessarily a desire to live in shared semi-poverty.
Quote from: Centurion40 on September 04, 2014, 12:32:33 PM
Yeah, I'd view the Soviet flag as a symbol of military potency, even geographic hegemony and not necessarily a desire to live in shared semi-poverty.
Ironically that is going to be the end-result. Unless, of course, Putin is whacked once the middle class experience the first life-style hit.
the Russian middle class would be considered very poor in the US.
I didn't even know there was a middle class in Russia.
Quote from: Gusington on September 04, 2014, 07:42:46 PM
I didn't even know there was a middle class in Russia.
There is, but it consists entirely of Gorbachev and Yakov Smirnoff.
What a country!
Quote from: mirth on September 04, 2014, 08:18:03 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 04, 2014, 07:42:46 PM
I didn't even know there was a middle class in Russia.
There is, but it consists entirely of Gorbachev and Yakov Smirnoff.
I thought that Yakov is the Mayor of Branson, MO and not a Russian resident.
Quote from: Centurion40 on September 05, 2014, 01:26:33 PM
Quote from: mirth on September 04, 2014, 08:18:03 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 04, 2014, 07:42:46 PM
I didn't even know there was a middle class in Russia.
There is, but it consists entirely of Gorbachev and Yakov Smirnoff.
I thought that Yakov is the Mayor of Branson, MO and not a Russian resident.
He is close enough to mayor, but everyone was having fun so I figured I wouldn't interrupt the party with reality.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Flh6.ggpht.com%2F-FB6VKXhkfBs%2FUwoVCJ13jeI%2FAAAAAAABG6s%2F49HN3xjuL2w%2Fyakov-smirnoff-joke_thumb%2525255B1%2525255D.jpg%3Fimgmax%3D800&hash=b782cbca5e639e01140c49b987fcd21f850daa04)
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 05, 2014, 08:42:16 PM
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Flh6.ggpht.com%2F-FB6VKXhkfBs%2FUwoVCJ13jeI%2FAAAAAAABG6s%2F49HN3xjuL2w%2Fyakov-smirnoff-joke_thumb%2525255B1%2525255D.jpg%3Fimgmax%3D800&hash=b782cbca5e639e01140c49b987fcd21f850daa04)
Heh. That's funny. And true.
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russian-military-planes-buzzed-hmcs-toronto-in-black-sea-1.2759843?cmp=fbtl&utm_content=buffer3974b&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Quote
Russia's military acted in an "unnecessarily provocative" manner when its aircraft circled a Canadian ship in the Black Sea on Sunday, says Canada's minister of national defence.
"The acts perpetrated by Russia were unnecessarily provocative and are likely to increase tensions further," said Rob Nicholson in a written statement, saying it did not matter if the aircraft circling HMCS Toronto had posed no threat.
We need paintball rounds for these type of incidents. Give them some foxtrot uniform to say hello.
Next time the ship's captain should send the sailor with the biggest, hairiest ass up on deck to moon the Rooskies as they fly by.
Wait...Canada's Navy has a ship that can leave it's territorial waters?
Yeah, several, that isnt even the one that tracked one of your subs on our wargames a few years ago.
Good analysis
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21615582-sad-reality-vladimir-putin-winning-ukraine-west-must-steel-itself
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 09, 2014, 09:30:50 PM
Good analysis
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21615582-sad-reality-vladimir-putin-winning-ukraine-west-must-steel-itself
In fairness, if the US were fielding anything other than a second string JV president, things might be a bit more difficult for Vlad.
Maybe. On the other hand if they have info that his real goal is to become dictator for life by using a threat to the motherland as pretext, maybe letting him hang himself works. Who knows what is real, what is response to misinterpreted info.
Without question though all his nuke missile tests are going to turn the world against him. The long term impact for Russia will be severe.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 10, 2014, 12:56:33 PM
Without question though all his nuke missile tests are going to turn the world against him. The long term impact for Russia will be severe.
Maybe Vlad is competing with L'il Kim??
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Time for the South Park guys to do "Team America; World Police: Part 2" with Putin as the bad guy puppet.
I have to ask, is there a historical precedent for pressing your opponent by denying food to your own people? I mean really, did they come up with that in a drunken stupor? I realize it is supposed to show will. Will for what though? Treating your own people like shit?
If the EU brought in more expensive fuel from elsewhere, that would correctly show will. They incur a cost to themselves while NOT hurting their people AND denying revenue to the opponent.
Also what is the long term gain for Russia? More land? Is that really what is holding back their society? I have to think this is a distraction from their corruption and misery. If you are incompetent in dealing with a problem, change the subject.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 11, 2014, 12:56:45 AM
I have to ask, is there a historical precedent for pressing your opponent by denying food to your own people? I mean really, did they come up with that in a drunken stupor? I realize it is supposed to show will. Will for what though? Treating your own people like shit?
Leningrad ???
That's different. That was starvation imposed by the sieging army.
Ive read enough to know that waaaaay more could have been done.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 11, 2014, 12:56:45 AM
I have to ask, is there a historical precedent for pressing your opponent by denying food to your own people? I mean really, did they come up with that in a drunken stupor? I realize it is supposed to show will. Will for what though? Treating your own people like shit?
Alesia and Vercingetorix.
Interesting, never knew of that siege before.
Same as above though, it is a siege of a stronghold. What Russia is doing is blocking food for their whole country. You would think before trying that they would grow replacement food first. Even the hermit kingdom wants food brought in.
Was that the double-siege where the Romans had fortifications facing the town and without facing the Gaul relief attacks?
I have a game somewhere of that one. An older title I think called "Caesar at Alesia."
http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/1430/caesar-alesia
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich called the new sanctions "an absolutely unfriendly step".
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29154488
:2funny:
The more I think about it the more I think Puta is doomed. He is failing to break the will of Ukraine, in fact he is driving it closer to the EU. He cannot break NATO economically or militarily. NATO can break Russia economically if pushed. The failure is just a matter of time. :idiot2:
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 11, 2014, 07:23:17 PM
The failure is just a matter of time. :idiot2:
I agree. Although Putin strikes me as the type who would nuke the planet from his death bed.
I find parallels with the 2nd Punic War.
http://www.amazon.com/Comparing-Strategies-2nd-Punic-War-ebook/dp/B00FG9BT0U/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1410482033&sr=1-3&keywords=2nd+punic+war (http://www.amazon.com/Comparing-Strategies-2nd-Punic-War-ebook/dp/B00FG9BT0U/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1410482033&sr=1-3&keywords=2nd+punic+war)
Even if he wins on the field of battle he will lose strategically.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on September 11, 2014, 10:54:06 AM
Was that the double-siege where the Romans had fortifications facing the town and without facing the Gaul relief attacks?
I have a game somewhere of that one. An older title I think called "Caesar at Alesia."
http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/1430/caesar-alesia
Yes. I'll elaborate in a reply to Biggs.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 11, 2014, 10:30:54 AM
Interesting, never knew of that siege before.
Same as above though, it is a siege of a stronghold. What Russia is doing is blocking food for their whole country. You would think before trying that they would grow replacement food first. Even the hermit kingdom wants food brought in.
It's actually slightly more involved.
Vercingetorex was surrounded. He had help coming (hence the (in?)famous double-siege. He didn't have enough food to feed all his troops plus the villagers he was sheltering with at the top of the hill. So he kicked the villagers out and sent them toward Roman lines, figuring the Romans would care for them.
Not quite realizing how business minded the Romans were, the villagers were denied shelter with the Romans. The Romans knew that time was ticking, and therefore sent the villagers back, figuring that it would either accelerate the starvation of the Gauls, or lower their morale as the Gaulic civies starved in front of them.
So I believe this siege qualifies as somewhat equivalent to what Biggs asked for: a case where the Gauls attempted to pressure the Romans by starving their own.
As for growing their own food, there wasn't time. This wasn't a years-long siege. Ultimately Caesar found a weakness in the Gauls' fortifications near a creek. Using signal mirrors to coordinate troops around the hill, he stormed it and took it.
Ok, that's useful. I'll ask a couple more questions. Is there an example of shutting the borders to food when the market has determined importing food is economically useful? Maybe Berlin/ East Germany?
In your example did it work? Who came out ahead by letting the civilians starve? (since both sides tried it)
In the current case Russia is probably not trying to starve their citizens, just denying what they see as luxuries. Is it? Once you get well stocked grocery stores, will the people go back to Soviet bare shelves? What is the morale/political fallout likely to be?
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 12, 2014, 12:19:23 AM
In your example did it work? Who came out ahead by letting the civilians starve? (since both sides tried it)
Caesar won. His troops found a weakness in one of the walls around a creek and exploited it.
http://blogs.reuters.com/john-lloyd/2014/08/28/russian-realism-is-winning-now-but-will-fail-in-the-end/
If you look at the image of gollum in the article, what is the red mark across the left palm?
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 13, 2014, 06:07:50 AM
http://blogs.reuters.com/john-lloyd/2014/08/28/russian-realism-is-winning-now-but-will-fail-in-the-end/
If you look at the image of gollum in the article, what is the red mark across the left palm?
I can think of at least one rude comment right away.
he holds it to tight.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 13, 2014, 06:07:50 AM
http://blogs.reuters.com/john-lloyd/2014/08/28/russian-realism-is-winning-now-but-will-fail-in-the-end/
If you look at the image of gollum in the article, what is the red mark across the left palm?
Maybe the scar from an Illuminati/mafia/etc. initiation?
QuoteShockwaves reverberated through Eastern Europe tonight after Vladimir Putin boasted he could invade five NATO capitals inside two days.
This came amid new reports that almost 4,000 Russia troops are massing in Crimea close to Ukraine's mainland.
'If I wanted, Russian troops could not only be in Kiev in two days, but in Riga, Vilnius, Tallinn, Warsaw or Bucharest, too,' Putin was quoted as threatening, according to Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko.
source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2761195/Moscow-troops-five-NATO-capitals-two-days-boasts-Putin-Leader-boasted-Ukrainian-president-Russian-power.html
Yeah, okay, you just try that, Comrade Stalin. :uglystupid2:
see this guy with the glasses....
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thats NATO
go for it putin. >:D
I think he's right. Russian troops could be in Warsaw in 2 days...as POWs.
Putin probably could do it, but how long would he be able to hold all five capitals?
Quote from: mirth on September 18, 2014, 07:00:22 PM
I think he's right. Russian troops could be in Warsaw in 2 days...as POWs.
Laugh
Out
Loud
Quote from: Gusington on September 18, 2014, 07:25:31 PM
Putin probably could do it, but how long would he be able to hold all five capitals?
Until he thinks Obama has grown a backbone.
I fully appreciate Obama not wanting to make the war bigger, leading NATO against what might be a limited war. Unfortunately his desire to be mr nice guy has a big culture clash with Gollum. "I wants it!" will be the phrase over and over as long as nobody is smashing his toy soldiers. To the Russian mindset he is weak and should be walked over. Maggie is rolling in her grave. I seriously hope Obama is making sure there is plenty of evidence to justify the ass kicking to come. If that is not his aim he should step down. If it seems nasty now wait until you have to ask him to give back several countries. At that point he will be "say goodby to x hundred cities. Now piss off." The world will be a very different place.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 18, 2014, 08:20:38 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 18, 2014, 07:25:31 PM
Putin probably could do it, but how long would he be able to hold all five capitals?
Until he thinks Obama has grown a backbone.
Obama gave a speech tonight that had me cheering for him.
I think after six years he's starting to realize that no matter how hard he tries to be nice to them, they still want to kill us. Having figured that out, he sounds like he's prepared to do what's necessary.
Maybe. Let's hope so.
Ive got some dry land in the Everglades to sell you.
Selling your mosquito farm?
no...
just the ever westward expansion of retirement home development into federal national park territory. :(
Im sure in 20 years or so Gus and JH will be living there.
Quote from: LongBlade on September 18, 2014, 08:25:04 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 18, 2014, 08:20:38 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 18, 2014, 07:25:31 PM
Putin probably could do it, but how long would he be able to hold all five capitals?
Until he thinks Obama has grown a backbone.
Obama gave a speech tonight that had me cheering for him.
I think after six years he's starting to realize that no matter how hard he tries to be nice to them, they still want to kill us. Having figured that out, he sounds like he's prepared to do what's necessary.
Maybe. Let's hope so.
He talk a lot, but.......
I've not been witness to Obama doing anything decisive other than being decisively terrible at giving speeches without a teleprompter.
I still dont see anyone here actually advocating that we send troops to the Ukraine and start a shooting war with Russia? So what else does that leave other than people on the sidelines trying to get us dragged into this mess. Its easy to say yes to using force after all that got us two gulf wars and look how well those turned out....much harder and wiser to say no
Con
Quote from: Gusington on September 18, 2014, 07:25:31 PM
Putin probably could do it, but how long would he be able to hold all five capitals?
Bingo.
I suspect that the Russian military is like an egg, a thin layer of hard and tough, filled with soft. mushy goo.
Quote from: LongBlade on September 18, 2014, 08:25:04 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 18, 2014, 08:20:38 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 18, 2014, 07:25:31 PM
Putin probably could do it, but how long would he be able to hold all five capitals?
Until he thinks Obama has grown a backbone.
Obama gave a speech tonight that had me cheering for him.
I think after six years he's starting to realize that no matter how hard he tries to be nice to them, they still want to kill us. Having figured that out, he sounds like he's prepared to do what's necessary.
Maybe. Let's hope so.
But what would President H. Clinton or President Christie do?
I just started reading Tom Clancy's Command Authority (published in 2013) which opens with a Russian invasion of Estonia on the belief that NATO will not respond.
QuoteThe last Tom Clancy book, Command Authority, published last year, is all about Russian aggression against its former satellites. Dialogue on p. 70:
Golovko added, "Volodin has his eyes on the Crimea, in Southern Ukraine, and he knows once Ukraine joins NATO, that will be difficult for him to achieve. The way he sees it, he has to move soon."
Ryan said, "He is right that there is no treaty between Ukraine and NATO. And if he does invade, getting Europe on board to fight for the Crimea is a nonstarter."
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/372469/no-one-could-have-predicted-except-tom-clancy-did-jim-geraghty (http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/372469/no-one-could-have-predicted-except-tom-clancy-did-jim-geraghty)
Quote from: pawelj on September 19, 2014, 08:09:23 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on September 18, 2014, 08:25:04 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 18, 2014, 08:20:38 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 18, 2014, 07:25:31 PM
Putin probably could do it, but how long would he be able to hold all five capitals?
Until he thinks Obama has grown a backbone.
Obama gave a speech tonight that had me cheering for him.
I think after six years he's starting to realize that no matter how hard he tries to be nice to them, they still want to kill us. Having figured that out, he sounds like he's prepared to do what's necessary.
Maybe. Let's hope so.
He talk a lot, but.......
Sorry, wrong thread - the speech was about ISIL. He said nothing of Ukraine.
Still, maybe the lesson learned is transferable.
I dont even think the Russian military has a hard shell. More like a cadbury egg.
Quote from: Con on September 19, 2014, 08:52:49 AM
I still dont see anyone here actually advocating that we send troops to the Ukraine and start a shooting war with Russia? So what else does that leave other than people on the sidelines trying to get us dragged into this mess. Its easy to say yes to using force after all that got us two gulf wars and look how well those turned out....much harder and wiser to say no
Con
And this is the attitude the Putin is counting on.
There are two choices, do as you advocate and what we are currently doing, which is very little. Or send troops in Ukraine and challenge Putin to keep pushing.
We did nothing when Putin took South Ossetian from Georgia. We did nothing when he took Crimean from Ukraine. We have placed economic sanctions on him, but it doesn't seem to be doing a lot to cause him to pull back.
Maybe Lock 'N Load should do a US-USSR Russia themed wargame in the Blood and Bridges mold. I'd sure buy the hell out of it.
Have an expansion with German panzers and call it "Return to Kiev."
^I like it, but the expansion should be 'Back in the USSR'.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on September 19, 2014, 04:26:28 PM
Maybe Lock 'N Load should do a US-USSR Russia themed wargame in the Blood and Bridges mold. I'd sure buy the hell out of it.
Have an expansion with German panzers and call it "Return to Kiev."
Brant has a game modeling the Ukraine conflict. Don't think it's been published yet, though.
Quote from: LongBlade on September 19, 2014, 05:06:38 PM
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on September 19, 2014, 04:26:28 PM
Maybe Lock 'N Load should do a US-USSR Russia themed wargame in the Blood and Bridges mold. I'd sure buy the hell out of it.
Have an expansion with German panzers and call it "Return to Kiev."
Brant has a game modeling the Ukraine conflict. Don't think it's been published yet, though.
When will Star not be writing the review?
Quote from: mirth on September 19, 2014, 05:12:00 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on September 19, 2014, 05:06:38 PM
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on September 19, 2014, 04:26:28 PM
Maybe Lock 'N Load should do a US-USSR Russia themed wargame in the Blood and Bridges mold. I'd sure buy the hell out of it.
Have an expansion with German panzers and call it "Return to Kiev."
Brant has a game modeling the Ukraine conflict. Don't think it's been published yet, though.
When will Star not be writing the review?
Ha!
Same schedule as Panthers in the Fog.
you people just dont understand artists and the creative endeavor. :-\
Yeah, I knew Brant had a game in the works - sorry, Brant, I forgot about that. If you can beat LnL to the punch, more power to you man. O0
A Ukrainian Marine walks down the improvised explosive device training lane during day two of the situational training exercise lanes at Rapid Trident 2014 here, Sept. 17. Rapid Trident is an annual U.S. Army Europe conducted, Ukrainian led multinational exercise designed to enhance interoperability with allied and partner nations while promoting regional stability and security.
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Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2014, 11:48:54 PM
Rapid Trident is an annual U.S. Army Europe conducted, Ukrainian led multinational exercise designed to enhance interoperability with allied and partner nations while promoting regional stability and security.
I'm not sure this means what they think it does.
*mumblemumblemumble* '...land war in Asia' *mumble*
Quote from: LongBlade on September 20, 2014, 12:24:00 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 19, 2014, 11:48:54 PM
Rapid Trident is an annual U.S. Army Europe conducted, Ukrainian led multinational exercise designed to enhance interoperability with allied and partner nations while promoting regional stability and security.
I'm not sure this means what they think it does.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.necessaryroughness.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F09%2Fthe-princess-bride-inconceivable.jpg&hash=aade7270f4fb903211ca8521b38e4cf5ec9c5d30)
Quote from: Staggerwing on September 20, 2014, 06:33:43 AM
*mumblemumblemumble* '...land war in Asia' *mumble*
Stay west of the Urals, no problem.
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Quote from: OJsDad on September 19, 2014, 12:49:46 PM
Quote from: Con on September 19, 2014, 08:52:49 AM
I still dont see anyone here actually advocating that we send troops to the Ukraine and start a shooting war with Russia? So what else does that leave other than people on the sidelines trying to get us dragged into this mess. Its easy to say yes to using force after all that got us two gulf wars and look how well those turned out....much harder and wiser to say no
Con
And this is the attitude the Putin is counting on.
There are two choices, do as you advocate and what we are currently doing, which is very little. Or send troops in Ukraine and challenge Putin to keep pushing.
We did nothing when Putin took South Ossetian from Georgia. We did nothing when he took Crimean from Ukraine. We have placed economic sanctions on him, but it doesn't seem to be doing a lot to cause him to pull back.
I do. It's the only thing Putin would understand. And it is far more important issue then ISIS.
We Germans had our Hitler and did nothing to stop him.
Now he is back in Russia and does the same things, the only difference is the direction, not west east, this time east west.
People in Russia , dont make the same misstake we did, stop him before ist to late.
Quote from: Micha on September 25, 2014, 05:02:33 AM
We Germans had our Hitler and did nothing to stop him.
Now he is back in Russia and does the same things, the only difference is the direction, not west east, this time east west.
People in Russia , dont make the same misstake we did, stop him before ist to late.
Russkies had Lenin, Stalin, and the following bunch, and they did not stop any of them.
Many Russians seem to admire them, in that they bring a sense of power to Russia. As if they become more powerful by association with Russia following the idiot exploits.
I see the long term problem with these land grabs as #1 a hardening of positions from all parties that builds until everyone wants a war to screw the other party. He sets in motion something he cannot possibly control.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 25, 2014, 10:28:18 AM
Many Russians seem to admire them, in that they bring a sense of power to Russia. As if they become more powerful by association with Russia following the idiot exploits.
I see the long term problem with these land grabs as #1 a hardening of positions from all parties that builds until everyone wants a war to screw the other party. He sets in motion something he cannot possibly control.
Great point.
QuoteRussian courts could get the green light to seize foreign assets on Russian territory under a draft law intended as a response to Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.
The draft, which was submitted to parliament on Wednesday by a pro-Kremlin deputy, would also allow state compensation for an individual whose property is seized in foreign jurisdictions.
Italian authorities this week seized property worth about 30 million euros ($40 million) belonging to companies controlled by Arkady Rotenberg, an ally of President Vladimir Putin targeted by the U.S. and European Union sanctions.
source: https://news.yahoo.com/russian-draft-law-allow-seizure-foreign-property-124247659--business.html
That'll show 'em, Russia. If you couldn't alienate yourself any further, I think you just managed to pull it off...unless, of course, you pass this law.
Yeah, that'll really ease the minds of any remaining foreign investors still thinking of entering Russian markets... ::)
Wait for the penny rouble.
and the BBC is now bringing up winter gas deals with Russia.
heres were it all falls apart.
Winter is coming and has been throughout this entire mess.
only one thing for it then.
we need more global warming!
Wndy will have to go get his cape at the dry cleaners before he can jump into the fray.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 26, 2014, 07:38:12 AM
only one thing for it then.
we need more global warming!
Pornographic statements like that should be banned on the internet.
Do you realize what Windy's going to do when he see you wrote that?
the more he talks the C02 he releases.
nothing will spur movement away from reliance on fossil fuels better than having to purchase it from your enemy ... unless you can buy it from a friend... Means more frakking in the US/Canada/UK.
This doesn't deal with Ukraine, but it does deal with Russia, and this seems to be the only active Russia thread ATM.
QuoteVladimir Putin has been planning for the past decade a plan to spark a major war in the Baltic region, a former adviser to the Russian president said, with the invasion of Ukraine and capture of Crimea the first step.
Speaking at a conference in Lithuania, former presidential adviser Andrey Illarionov said Putin has been planning for a major war since at least 2003.
Illarionov referred to a 2008 article from Russian Journal that outlined a plan for Russia to attack Crimea, moving westward until the capital of Kiev was captured.
"As we see, not only were they preparing, they were publishing it," Illarionov said.
source: http://www.inquisitr.com/1501954/vladimir-putin-has-been-planning-world-war-3-for-the-last-decade-former-adviser-warns/
Baltic Region? Last I checked Kiev was almost as far from the Baltic as Moscow or Sarajevo.
True, but I can see a renewed Russian interest in once again swallowing up the Baltic States. I pray NATO has the sense to start building now.
The Brits voted yesterday mid day to bomb isil and theyre already running Tornados out of Cyprus as of this morning. How fast would a NATO reaction be to a russian play on the Valyic states?
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2014, 03:28:19 PM
The Brits voted yesterday mid day to bomb isil and theyre already running Tornados out of Cyprus as of this morning. How fast would a NATO reaction be to a russian play on the Valyic states?
Valyic states? Is that some old-timey name for the place?
Smart phone keyboard...... Baltic. :P
Would we here in the West care more about/have a more legit casus belli for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania than Ukraine? Sure they're NATO members but if the poo really hits the fan...are we going to defend the Baltics? I think Putin is betting that we won't.
I think we will. If we didnt Poland would go apeshit and theyve got Leopards.
We would have to or the alliance would fall apart and that would be too good fer them Ruskies.
This is some very uncomfortable reading for someone who lives on a little island just off the coast of France.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2014, 03:36:27 PM
Smart phone keyboard...... Baltic. :P
Aren't you the one that told me that a good craftsman never blames his tools?
Quote from: bob48 on September 27, 2014, 05:12:19 PM
This is some very uncomfortable reading for someone who lives on a little island just off the coast of France.
Corsicans are a skittish lot.
Quote from: bob48 on September 27, 2014, 05:12:19 PM
This is some very uncomfortable reading for someone who lives on a little island just off the coast of France.
The up side is that no one has succeeded in invading you since 1066.
dunno why anyone would want to. have you tasted their food?
Quote from: Barthheart on September 27, 2014, 05:02:27 PM
We would have to or the alliance would fall apart and that would be too good fer them Ruskies.
That gets to the core of it, if he can break the alliance he can later gobble it all up piece by piece.
So yes, his nuke Ace has to be neutralized.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2014, 07:28:31 PM
dunno why anyone would want to. have you tasted their food?
I hear they've adopted Indian food, so it has improved considerably.
http://www.netflix.com/WiPlayer?movieid=70198115&trkid=13752289&tctx=0,0,ram:2305e163-6780-49f4-b44a-59bd7268bfdd
See the top English restaurants.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on September 27, 2014, 07:28:31 PM
dunno why anyone would want to. have you tasted their food?
Lived there for 3 years, so yes.
Nowt wrong with our grub. My missus makes a wonderful steak and kidney pudding O0
Hopefully from a cow that didn't suffer from kidneystones...
Quote from: Staggerwing on September 28, 2014, 01:49:10 PM
Hopefully from a cow that didn't suffer from kidneystones...
Meh!
I had kidney stones a few years ago - very painful experience it was too.
Quote from: bob48 on September 28, 2014, 01:04:22 PM
Nowt wrong with our grub. My missus makes a wonderful steak and kidney pudding O0
That pretty much verifies my comment.
^come over here, ya bugger, an' I'll prove you're wrong. :tickedoff:
The Wife and I visited London and Windsor in 2003 and thought the food was pretty good. We even had blood pudding and I really enjoyed it. Also...the Indian food in London is fantastic, and I am not a big fan of it over here back home. Even the Indian beer was ok...I think it was actually called Tiger. Got me nice and drunk and I hugged many a bobby on New Years Eve.
^^ Also explains the blood pudding... :P
That was AFTER the blood pudding!
Quote from: Gusington on September 28, 2014, 02:06:44 PM
The Wife and I visited London and Windsor in 2003 and thought the food was pretty good. We even had blood pudding and I really enjoyed it. Also...the Indian food in London is fantastic, and I am not a big fan of it over here back home. Even the Indian beer was ok...I think it was actually called Tiger. Got me nice and drunk and I hugged many a bobby on New Years Eve.
Indian food got me through Japan when I got to the point where one more piece of sushi wasn't going down my gullet.
Had to take the train to the next town, but it was worth it.
There's a lot of Indian food in Japan?? I would never have guessed that.
Quote from: Gusington on September 28, 2014, 06:58:30 PM
There's a lot of Indian food in Japan?? I would never have guessed that.
I wouldn't say a lot. But I had a good one which was close. Gotta love Tandoori.
Oh my yes. There's a large Indian population in Japan, mostly migrant workers. There's lots in Dubai as well.
Ikimasho Gussu-kun! Ret's enjoying CoCo Ichibanya Curry Challengi! (now with schoolgirls for some reason. Because...Japan?)
http://www.ichibanya.co.jp/index.html (http://www.ichibanya.co.jp/index.html)
CoCo Ichiban's a nation-wide (with lot's of them in the rest of Asia, Hawaii, and the west coast of the US and Canada) curry chain that's altered the menu to suit the Japanese palate.
The menu is kind of interesting. You order the basic type of curry you want. (Beef, chicken, pork, seafood, veggie, other weirdness). Then you can up-size the curry and/or the rice portion, add extra ingredients and choose a spice level from 1-10. They also have a jar of awesome pickled chutney (Japanese style, tsukemono and mirin) at the table.
They used to offer the Curry Challenge. If you could eat the max size 1,300g of curry and rice with level 10 spice, then the meal was free. Too many filthy
gaijin and nan-ban barbarians cottoned on to this so "no foreigners allowed for challenge" signs started appearing. That didn't sit too well so they cancelled the challenge officially but you can still find individual restaurants that offer it up. Voice of experience here. Do NOT try it after ingesting a couple pitchers of beer.
Heh. Nice, Silent :)
Is that stuff kosher for the jewish high holy days?
BTW 9 Ukrainian soldiers were killed and more wounded when their APC was destroyed by a Russian tank today.
Jesus. Do you have a link to that story, Gus?
I thought I'd heard there was a cease-fire. Guess I heard wrong.
I think its on Reuters. They took out the tank.
Yeah I saw it on Reuters and CNN yesterday.
I figured you saw it on Reuters, and I checked as soon as I saw your post, but there were no stories on it.
http://o.canada.com/news/fisher-canadian-fighter-jets-see-action-in-baltics-intercept-russian-military-aircraft
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on September 30, 2014, 10:23:19 AM
http://o.canada.com/news/fisher-canadian-fighter-jets-see-action-in-baltics-intercept-russian-military-aircraft
Jolly good show, eh?
So is the ceasefire foundering?
They intercepted an An-26 transport. Not like it was a Flogger or some other archaic Commie aircraft.
Quote from: Gusington on September 30, 2014, 11:06:17 AM
So is the ceasefire foundering?
Difficult to say.
QuoteDeadly fighting has broken out again between the government and rebels around the strategically important airport outside Donetsk, a continuing source of friction that is testing the resilience of a recent cease-fire agreement.
Nine Ukrainian soldiers and three civilians were killed during heavy shelling on Sunday, government officials announced. Andriy Lysenko, an army spokesman, said seven soldiers died when a tank shell hit their troop transport. It was the deadliest attack since the cease-fire was announced on Sept. 5.
President Petro O. Poroshenko has called the cease-fire the keystone to his peace plan for the country, and in a nationally televised news conference on Thursday said he had "no doubt that the biggest, most dangerous part of the war is already behind us."
source: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/world/europe/fighting-around-donetsk-airport-tests-ukraine-cease-fire.html?_r=0
QuoteUkraine's tenuous truce and troop withdrawal deal lay in tatters on Tuesday after the deadliest wave of attacks by pro-Russian insurgents in more than a month killed nine government soldiers.
The surge in clashes across the separatist rust belt spelled an ominous start to campaigning for parties that make the ballot for October 26 parliamentary polls once the registration deadline passes on Tuesday night.
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko told German Chancellor Angela Merkel -- his closest and most powerful European ally -- on Monday that Russia was ignoring the terms of a September 5 peace pact the sides sealed in the Belarussian capital Minsk.
source: https://news.yahoo.com/twelve-dead-eastern-ukraine-despite-truce-104448764.html
Sounds...not good.
So, is Pawel correct? Should Putin get slapped-down now before there is a re-run of 1939?
Personally, I think (which is easy for me to say, as I am not Ukrainian) that Kiev should give-up Luhansk and Donetsk. Maybe even Kharkiv and Zaporizhia for good measure. Pull out and consolidate defences in what is left of eastern Ukraine. Deport any remaining pro-Russian citizens. Dig in. Ally as much as possible. Pray that the US does not implode.
If push comes to shove in the Baltics, we have to step-up. We (old-NATO) seriously need to establish a ground & air presence in Poland. Air and Army bases with Brits, Yanks & Canucks. Have a standing NATO fleet in Tallinn, teeming with USMC & Royal Marines (they'll really dig the local blond talent).
In the current atmosphere just establishing a dock for a NATO dinghy in Tallinn could start a war. Even if Russia did take the Baltics, I don't think NATO would do anything. This is Russia's playground and like Kramer said, Ukraine is weak. It is up to the former Warsaw Pact to either fall in line with Russia or die trying to resist.
If NATO did nothing it would dissolve the alliance.
They'd have to act.
Quote from: LongBlade on September 30, 2014, 02:40:27 PM
If NATO did nothing it would dissolve the alliance.
They'd have to act.
+1.
Besides, we owe Poland for 1939.
I've heard that Ukraine has plans to boost defence spending. Perhaps they should try getting some 2-for-1 deals from Boeing, Raytheon, Krauss-Maffei, General Motors, Lockheed, etc., etc.
They'd all probably like to see their kit field tested on the plains of Europe.
Quote from: Gusington on September 30, 2014, 02:35:12 PM
In the current atmosphere just establishing a dock for a NATO dinghy in Tallinn could start a war. Even if Russia did take the Baltics, I don't think NATO would do anything. This is Russia's playground and like Kramer said, Ukraine is weak. It is up to the former Warsaw Pact to either fall in line with Russia or die trying to resist.
No way the Poles are just going to fall in line with Russia.
Quote from: Centurion40 on September 30, 2014, 02:50:07 PM
Besides, we owe Poland for 1939.
And the 50-odd years after.
Quote from: Centurion40 on September 30, 2014, 01:35:55 PM
So, is Pawel correct? Should Putin get slapped-down now before there is a re-run of 1939?
Ill state this once again:
putin does NOT have the military strength to to even think of a 1939 re-run.
he will rattle the nuclear card to act tough. all our fearless leader needs to do is rattle it back. not that the spineless git is going to. ::)
Putin is counting on splitting the alliance. That's almost as good as reviving the USSR for him.
Quote from: Gusington on September 30, 2014, 06:38:42 PM
Putin is counting on splitting the alliance. That's almost as good as reviving the USSR for him.
I really doubt he'll do anything against NATO. The downside is too big. It means a hot war consisting of him against Europe, Canada, and the USA.
Not gonna happen.
Quote from: Centurion40 on September 30, 2014, 02:50:07 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on September 30, 2014, 02:40:27 PM
If NATO did nothing it would dissolve the alliance.
They'd have to act.
+1.
Besides, we owe Poland for 1939.
I thought our ancestors got stuck in on their behalf in '39. It was in '45 when we let them down.
Putin doesn't have to actually do anything of substance - he just has to keep rattling his saber and watch as the West scurries around, looking for a plan. Putin has done quite enough already by shredding Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. He's changed the status quo. Does anyone remember the Sochi Olympics at this point? No. Will they remember that Putin is the first leader since 1945 to forcibly seize territory in Europe? Hopefully. There's no ambiguity about whether Russia is a friend or foe of the West anymore. It's perfectly clear. We in the West better re-cog-nize, yo.
Quote from: Gusington on September 30, 2014, 07:48:56 PM
Putin doesn't have to actually do anything of substance - he just has to keep rattling his saber and watch as the West scurries around, looking for a plan. Putin has done quite enough already by shredding Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. He's changed the status quo. Does anyone remember the Sochi Olympics at this point? No. Will they remember that Putin is the first leader since 1945 to forcibly seize territory in Europe? Hopefully. There's no ambiguity about whether Russia is a friend or foe of the West anymore. It's perfectly clear. We in the West better re-cog-nize, yo.
Agree. I also think he will lose his naval base in Syria for his troubles.
Quote from: LongBlade on September 30, 2014, 07:34:59 PM
Quote from: Gusington on September 30, 2014, 06:38:42 PM
Putin is counting on splitting the alliance. That's almost as good as reviving the USSR for him.
I really doubt he'll do anything against NATO. The downside is too big. It means a hot war consisting of him against Europe, Canada, and the USA.
Not gonna happen.
Yeah, people forget that the US still has our nuclear triad: bombers, ICBMs, and SLBMs, not to mention the nuclear arsenals of Britain and France. Putin can rattle the nuclear saber, at some point we may need to rattle back, cuz our's is sharper. I wonder how long those Bears flying near North American airspace would last in a real shooting war?
consider that we're the only country left with an actual nuclear triad.....
perhaps we should start running up and down some coasts with our B-2 with exactly 1 radar reflector fitted. >:D
part of me hopes we are without any.
AB... if shit goes that bad I expect every sub and silo to be gone in 15 minutes. their 'bombers' dont stand a chance. F-22s are always in Alaska.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on September 30, 2014, 08:25:08 PMPutin can rattle the nuclear saber, at some point we may need to rattle back, cuz our's is sharper. I wonder how long those Bears flying near North American airspace would last in a real shooting war?
Bingo.
fwiw theres nothing from over there that comes over here that isnt intercepted and escorted within 30 minutes.
and while that sounds like a long time keep in mind that they're tracked for far longer and have propellers. ::)
fuck russia
You have to wonder what would happen if we moved some theater-level nuclear assets into Poland (assuming they gave permission) with a lot of hoopla. The Russian media and gov't spokescritters would blow a gasket but Putin might be a little slower to take a gamble. Nothing says "I fucked up, depose me" like losing most of your advancing armies in the blink of an eye.
I dunno - if we (that is, NATO, specifically the US and Poland) DID have the balls to pull a move like that (putting nukes in Poland), I don't think Putin would be convinced that we'd use them. He knows what a spineless sock puppet our current CIC is.
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on September 30, 2014, 07:36:31 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on September 30, 2014, 02:50:07 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on September 30, 2014, 02:40:27 PM
If NATO did nothing it would dissolve the alliance.
They'd have to act.
+1.
Besides, we owe Poland for 1939.
I thought our ancestors got stuck in on their behalf in '39. It was in '45 when we let them down.
Appreciated. But what I meant is that had Hitler been called on his bullshit before 1939, then Poland, probably, would have suffered much less over the following 50+ years.
Totally agree BC. However, nukes in Poland would be like a reverse Cuban Missile Crisis, we'd be shitting in Putin's slippers. Who knows what the response would be.
Quote from: Centurion40 on September 30, 2014, 01:35:55 PM
So, is Pawel correct? Should Putin get slapped-down now before there is a re-run of 1939?
Was there ever any doubt? ;)
Quote from: Staggerwing on October 01, 2014, 05:19:09 AM
You have to wonder what would happen if we moved some theater-level nuclear assets into Poland (assuming they gave permission) with a lot of hoopla. The Russian media and gov't spokescritters would blow a gasket but Putin might be a little slower to take a gamble. Nothing says "I fucked up, depose me" like losing most of your advancing armies in the blink of an eye.
There are voices in Poland, that it should get/lease nukes of its own.
West should really stop worrying about upsetting Russia. They are, as they always were, a giant on clay legs. They have zero rights beyond their internationally recognized borders. West needs to get really inventive in Georgia and arm Ukraine pronto. That way they won't get to the have to deal with any invasions in the Baltic.
The idea of Ukraine giving up an inch is very bad. West must never accept annexation of the Crimea. It will only invite more Russian aggression.
I wondered where Belarus stands in all of this. So a little Google-fu results in this:
http://belarusdigest.com/story/russian-nuclear-weapons-belarus-anti-nato-military-bloc-belarus-security-digest-18236
Granted an older article (June 2014), but still interesting. Anyone hear anything else about Belarus? I found some other articles that indicate they have a definitive pro-Russia leaning. Maybe they'd join Russia's little forced collectivization (e.g. Warsaw Pact II).
Interesting article from March on the topic of a nuclear armed Poland
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303824204579421660993452026?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303824204579421660993452026.html
Belarus is pretty much a Russian satellite. Or soviet, if you want to go old skool.
Quote from: pawelj on October 01, 2014, 08:28:33 AM
West should really stop worrying about upsetting Russia. They are, as they always were, a giant on clay legs. They have zero rights beyond their internationally recognized borders. West needs to get really inventive in Georgia and arm Ukraine pronto. That way they won't get to the have to deal with any invasions in the Baltic.
The idea of Ukraine giving up an inch is very bad. West must never accept annexation of the Crimea. It will only invite more Russian aggression.
Bush II was the guy who didn't react when Russia went into Georgia.
We can debate whether he inherited his father's blindness to the "vision thang," or whether not acting was a kind of Realpolitik to show unity against the radicals there. Could be all-of-the-above.
One way or the other that lack of action showed a green light for further incursions such as Ukraine.
Certainly the flaccid leadership shown by the current admin demonstrated we weren't prepared to do much when they did move into Crimea, and then eastern Ukraine.
Quote from: mirth on October 01, 2014, 09:06:44 AM
Interesting article from March on the topic of a nuclear armed Poland
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303824204579421660993452026?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303824204579421660993452026.html
The article is paywalled. Any chance of quoting some or all of it here if it doesn't violate any Big Media Goonsquad rules?
Stupid paywall!!! If you find it through a Google search, it doesn't block you.
QuoteHow to Put Military Pressure on Russia
NATO now has reason to station nuclear forces in front-line member states.
By JIM THOMAS
Updated March 9, 2014
Russia's seizure of Crimea should be a wake-up call for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The absence of serious thinking about NATO's territorial defense mission—its raison d'être—and the weakness its 28 member nations have shown since the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia have proven catnip for Vladimir Putin.
Most of NATO's European members have spent the past two decades rationalizing how they can spend ever-smaller sums on security. And now the U.S. is cutting its defense expenditures while trying to "pivot" its strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific. So it isn't surprising that pundits and government officials have tended to emphasize political and economic suasion for dealing with this latest Russian aggression.
Sanctions, skipping the G-8 summit in Sochi, hitting Russian oligarchs in their pocketbooks, isolating Russia in international forums—all of these options are legitimate responses to Mr. Putin's land grab in the sovereign state of Ukraine. But there is also a need to think about military options.
First, NATO should reconsider its so-called Three Nos from the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. The Three Nos were shorthand for the NATO allies' joint declaration that they had "no intentions, no plans, and no reason" to station nonstrategic nuclear forces in new member states. But NATO left the door open to future deployments if front-line allies were threatened. While NATO still lacks the intention and plans to station nuclear forces in new member states, such as Poland, it now has more than sufficient reason to do so.
A preliminary step should be making the Polish air force's F-16s capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons so that they could participate in NATO's nuclear mission. That should quickly be followed by site surveys to identify suitable locations for potentially storing nuclear weapons on the territory of front-line allies, including Poland, if relations with Russia further deteriorate.
Second, NATO should reinforce its front-line allies with additional conventional force deployments. The time has come for the U.S. and other NATO allies to consider permanently stationing forces in Poland and Romania as well as the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to back up their words of strategic solidarity. Their mission should be defensively oriented, establishing what military strategists call "anti-access, area denial" zones. (This might include missile defenses to protect major bases in those countries along with anti-air, anti-armor and anti-ship weapons to counter air, land or naval incursions.
Taking these steps in the Baltic states would reduce Russia's temptation to encroach on their sovereignty in the name of "protecting ethnic Russian populations," a pretext it has used in Ukraine. It would also preclude Russia's option of a quick, Crimea-like operation to establish a fait accompli on the ground before NATO can decide to act.
Third, NATO should make it clear that it would seriously consider a future Ukrainian request for indirect military assistance, especially if Russia escalates the crisis in Crimea or deploys its forces into other eastern Ukrainian provinces. NATO could certainly provide overt nonlethal and humanitarian assistance, while the U.S. might even consider covert lethal aid, as in Afghanistan during the 1980s Soviet occupation. This might include short-range precision guided weapons that could be used by resistance forces to attack bases and facilities on Ukrainian territory seized by Russia's forces or its proxies.
It may not be realistic to compel the withdrawal of Russian forces quickly and it is far-fetched to imagine NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. Nevertheless, it would still be possible to exact a heavy toll on Russia in blood and treasure through a protracted irregular war if it formally annexes Crimea or attempts to occupy other parts of the country.
Fourth, the U.S. and its NATO allies should revisit their self-imposed prohibitions on lethal aid to moderate Syrian opposition groups. In the post-Crimea era, Syria should be viewed through the prism of not only the West's long-term strategic competition with Iran, but also its re-emerging competition with Russia. The defeat of Bashar Assad's murderous regime and with it the potential loss of Russia's naval port at Tartus would represent a heavy tax for Russia's adventurism closer to home.
Lastly, Russia's invasion of Crimea should prompt strategic reappraisals in both Washington and Brussels. The Ukrainian crisis raises fundamental questions about the wisdom of the Obama administration's attempt to "lead from behind" on foreign-policy issues with clear U.S. interests, its pursuit of "global zero" (the elimination of all nuclear weapons world-wide) and most directly its "reset with Russia."
Rather than "reset," the administration would do well to hit the "recall" button on the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review, released March 4, which treated Putin's Russia as an afterthought relative to other global threats, and astonishingly advocated another round of bilateral nuclear-arms reductions at a time of heightened tensions.
Leaders in Washington and Europe have allowed NATO's defenses to deteriorate to the point that Mr. Putin seems to think he can act with impunity. It is past time to start rebuilding those defenses, and Mr. Putin's Ukrainian gambit should be the catalyst.
Mr. Thomas is vice president and director of studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, D.C.
Thanks!
hes trying to trick us into thinking hes more clever then he is with the WSJ subscription. ;)
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 01, 2014, 05:51:41 PM
hes trying to trick us into thinking hes more clever then he is with the WSJ subscription. ;)
I've noticed that, too. News.google gets you in places you'd otherwise have to pay to go.
Quote from: mirth on October 01, 2014, 12:11:53 PM
Stupid paywall!!! If you find it through a Google search, it doesn't block you.
QuoteHow to Put Military Pressure on Russia
NATO now has reason to station nuclear forces in front-line member states.
By JIM THOMAS
Updated March 9, 2014
Russia's seizure of Crimea should be a wake-up call for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The absence of serious thinking about NATO's territorial defense mission—its raison d'être—and the weakness its 28 member nations have shown since the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia have proven catnip for Vladimir Putin.
Most of NATO's European members have spent the past two decades rationalizing how they can spend ever-smaller sums on security. And now the U.S. is cutting its defense expenditures while trying to "pivot" its strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific. So it isn't surprising that pundits and government officials have tended to emphasize political and economic suasion for dealing with this latest Russian aggression.
Sanctions, skipping the G-8 summit in Sochi, hitting Russian oligarchs in their pocketbooks, isolating Russia in international forums—all of these options are legitimate responses to Mr. Putin's land grab in the sovereign state of Ukraine. But there is also a need to think about military options.
First, NATO should reconsider its so-called Three Nos from the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act. The Three Nos were shorthand for the NATO allies' joint declaration that they had "no intentions, no plans, and no reason" to station nonstrategic nuclear forces in new member states. But NATO left the door open to future deployments if front-line allies were threatened. While NATO still lacks the intention and plans to station nuclear forces in new member states, such as Poland, it now has more than sufficient reason to do so.
A preliminary step should be making the Polish air force's F-16s capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons so that they could participate in NATO's nuclear mission. That should quickly be followed by site surveys to identify suitable locations for potentially storing nuclear weapons on the territory of front-line allies, including Poland, if relations with Russia further deteriorate.
Second, NATO should reinforce its front-line allies with additional conventional force deployments. The time has come for the U.S. and other NATO allies to consider permanently stationing forces in Poland and Romania as well as the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to back up their words of strategic solidarity. Their mission should be defensively oriented, establishing what military strategists call "anti-access, area denial" zones. (This might include missile defenses to protect major bases in those countries along with anti-air, anti-armor and anti-ship weapons to counter air, land or naval incursions.
Taking these steps in the Baltic states would reduce Russia's temptation to encroach on their sovereignty in the name of "protecting ethnic Russian populations," a pretext it has used in Ukraine. It would also preclude Russia's option of a quick, Crimea-like operation to establish a fait accompli on the ground before NATO can decide to act.
Third, NATO should make it clear that it would seriously consider a future Ukrainian request for indirect military assistance, especially if Russia escalates the crisis in Crimea or deploys its forces into other eastern Ukrainian provinces. NATO could certainly provide overt nonlethal and humanitarian assistance, while the U.S. might even consider covert lethal aid, as in Afghanistan during the 1980s Soviet occupation. This might include short-range precision guided weapons that could be used by resistance forces to attack bases and facilities on Ukrainian territory seized by Russia's forces or its proxies.
It may not be realistic to compel the withdrawal of Russian forces quickly and it is far-fetched to imagine NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine. Nevertheless, it would still be possible to exact a heavy toll on Russia in blood and treasure through a protracted irregular war if it formally annexes Crimea or attempts to occupy other parts of the country.
Fourth, the U.S. and its NATO allies should revisit their self-imposed prohibitions on lethal aid to moderate Syrian opposition groups. In the post-Crimea era, Syria should be viewed through the prism of not only the West's long-term strategic competition with Iran, but also its re-emerging competition with Russia. The defeat of Bashar Assad's murderous regime and with it the potential loss of Russia's naval port at Tartus would represent a heavy tax for Russia's adventurism closer to home.
Lastly, Russia's invasion of Crimea should prompt strategic reappraisals in both Washington and Brussels. The Ukrainian crisis raises fundamental questions about the wisdom of the Obama administration's attempt to "lead from behind" on foreign-policy issues with clear U.S. interests, its pursuit of "global zero" (the elimination of all nuclear weapons world-wide) and most directly its "reset with Russia."
Rather than "reset," the administration would do well to hit the "recall" button on the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review, released March 4, which treated Putin's Russia as an afterthought relative to other global threats, and astonishingly advocated another round of bilateral nuclear-arms reductions at a time of heightened tensions.
Leaders in Washington and Europe have allowed NATO's defenses to deteriorate to the point that Mr. Putin seems to think he can act with impunity. It is past time to start rebuilding those defenses, and Mr. Putin's Ukrainian gambit should be the catalyst.
Mr. Thomas is vice president and director of studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, D.C.
Obviously WSJ subscription has lapsed at the WH.
Quote from: pawelj on October 02, 2014, 08:12:48 AM
Obviously WSJ subscription has lapsed at the WH.
Maybe they cancelled it after this
Where Are The Media's Iraq War Boosters 10 Years Later? http://mediamatters.org/research/2013/03/19/where-are-the-medias-iraq-war-boosters-10-years/193117#gigot
Paul Gigot / Wall Street Journal Editorial Page
Position At The Time Of Iraq Invasion: Editorial page editor and vice president of The Wall Street Journal. [WSJ.com, accessed 3/19/13]
Gigot's WSJ Editorial Page Frequently Forwarded Alarmist Claims About Iraq's Nuclear Capabilities. As Media Matters documented, the Journal editorial page, which Gigot has overseen since 2001, frequently hyped the likelihood that Saddam was not far from producing or obtaining a nuclear weapon. [Media Matters, 4/18/06]
WSJ In January 2003: Iraqi National Congress Has "Brought Out Scores Of Defectors And Tons Of Information On Saddam's Weapons Programs." [Media Matters, 6/19/09]
WSJ In February 2003: Coalition Will Find "Nasty Weapons And The Cheering Iraqis ... When It Liberates The Country." [Media Matters, 6/19/09]
Where Is Gigot Now? Gigot is still the editorial page editor for the Journal. He also hosts The Journal Editorial Report for Fox News. [WSJ.com, accessed 3/19/13]
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-tv-inadvertently-published-propaganda-about-mh17-that-disproved-the-kremlins-main-theory-2014-10
Russian TV undercutting Kremlin theory about MH17 shootdown
Quote from: bayonetbrant on October 13, 2014, 10:12:54 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-tv-inadvertently-published-propaganda-about-mh17-that-disproved-the-kremlins-main-theory-2014-10
Russian TV undercutting Kremlin theory about MH17 shootdown
Some reporters and producers are going to disappear into a gulag over this.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on October 13, 2014, 10:12:54 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-tv-inadvertently-published-propaganda-about-mh17-that-disproved-the-kremlins-main-theory-2014-10
Russian TV undercutting Kremlin theory about MH17 shootdown
Maybe they're borrowing coverup techniques from the Obama administration?
No one could just pretend to be as ignorant and clueless.
Quote from: Gusington on October 13, 2014, 03:34:15 PM
No one could just pretend to be as ignorant and clueless.
Don't underestimate the power of ignorance and stupidity.
Still, I don't think any descent and honest person would have doubts about who is responsible for this tragedy - RUSSIA!!!!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/anne-applebaum-nato-pays-a-heavy-price-for-giving-russia-too-much-credita-true-achievement-under-threat/2014/10/17/5b3a6f2a-5617-11e4-809b-8cc0a295c773_story.html
QuoteBut times change, and the miraculous transformation of a historically unstable region became a humdrum reality. Instead of celebrating this achievement on the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, it is now fashionable to opine that this expansion, and of NATO in particular, was mistaken. This project is incorrectly "remembered" as the result of American "triumphalism" that somehow humiliated Russia by bringing Western institutions into its rickety neighborhood. This thesis is usually based on revisionist history promoted by the current Russian regime — and it is wrong.
For the record: No treaties prohibiting NATO expansion were ever signed with Russia. No promises were broken. Nor did the impetus for NATO expansion come from a "triumphalist" Washington. On the contrary, Poland's first efforts to apply in 1992 were rebuffed. I well remember the angry reaction of the U.S. ambassador to Warsaw at the time. But Poland and others persisted, precisely because they were already seeing signs of the Russian revanchism to come.
When the slow, cautious expansion eventually took place, constant efforts were made to reassure Russia. No NATO bases were placed in the new member states, and until 2013 no exercises were conducted there. A Russia-NATO agreement in 1997 promised no movement of nuclear installations. A NATO-Russia Council was set up in 2002. In response to Russian objections, Ukraine and Georgia were, in fact, denied NATO membership plans in 2008.
Meanwhile, not only was Russia not "humiliated" during this era, it was given de facto "great power" status, along with the Soviet seat on the U.N. Security Council and Soviet embassies. Russia also received Soviet nuclear weapons, some transferred from Ukraine in 1994 in exchange for Russian recognition of Ukraine's borders. Presidents Clinton and Bush both treated their Russian counterparts as fellow "great power" leaders and invited them to join the Group of Eight — although Russia, neither a large economy nor a democracy, did not qualify.
During this period, Russia, unlike Central Europe, never sought to transform itself along European lines. Instead, former KGB officers with a clearly expressed allegiance to the Soviet system took over the state in league with organized crime, seeking to prevent the formation of democratic institutions at home and to undermine them abroad. For the past decade, this kleptocratic clique has also sought to re-create an empire, using everything from cyberattacks on Estonia to military invasions of Georgia and now Ukraine, in open violation of that 1994 agreement — exactly as the Central Europeans feared.
much more to read at the link - it's a very good article
.
So the USMC is prepositioning heavy armor in Norway again: http://m.theweek.com/article/index/270353/why-is-the-pentagon-stuffing-caves-in-norway-full-of-tanks (http://m.theweek.com/article/index/270353/why-is-the-pentagon-stuffing-caves-in-norway-full-of-tanks)
Back to he good ol' days looks like.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on October 23, 2014, 10:00:42 AM
So the USMC is prepositioning heavy armor in Norway again: http://m.theweek.com/article/index/270353/why-is-the-pentagon-stuffing-caves-in-norway-full-of-tanks (http://m.theweek.com/article/index/270353/why-is-the-pentagon-stuffing-caves-in-norway-full-of-tanks)
Back to he good ol' days looks like.
You mean the President doesn't have his head buried in a hole and is making some proactive moves. Or maybe he doesn't know about it.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on October 23, 2014, 10:00:42 AM
So the USMC is prepositioning heavy armor in Norway again: http://m.theweek.com/article/index/270353/why-is-the-pentagon-stuffing-caves-in-norway-full-of-tanks (http://m.theweek.com/article/index/270353/why-is-the-pentagon-stuffing-caves-in-norway-full-of-tanks)
Back to he good ol' days looks like.
Does the Corps cover Scandinavia, and the Army cover the continent? I ask because my reserve regiment once (in war games) went up against USMC reservists, in Norway, in the winter. I wasn't there, but I'm told that those poor bastards really didn't like the snow and cold- whereas our guys were acclimatized to it.
Uh oh now you've done it...prepare for incoming response from USMC...
yes Cent. during the Cold War the Marines were tasked to play in Norway. shriveling their peckers in Arctic water just makes em meaner.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 23, 2014, 02:51:00 PM
yes Cent. during the Cold War the Marines were tasked to play in Norway. shriveling their peckers in Arctic water just makes em meaner.
'k. Woulda been around 1983.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on October 23, 2014, 02:51:00 PM
yes Cent. during the Cold War the Marines were tasked to play in Norway. shriveling their peckers in Arctic water just makes em meaner.
And uglier. If that's possible.
^That's right smack in the middle of our own Gunny's time in, IIRC. He was probably shaving away a tobaggen path on someone.
Quote from: Gusington on October 23, 2014, 06:41:08 PM
^That's right smack in the middle of our own Gunny's time in, IIRC. He was probably shaving away a tobaggen path on someone.
Ha!
Quote from: Gusington on October 23, 2014, 06:41:08 PM
^That's right smack in the middle of our own Gunny's time in, IIRC. He was probably shaving away a tobaggen path on someone.
Yeah, but these guys were USMC reservists from Boston or NYC. Smuck was a full-time jarhead.
Considering how much of Scandanavia is jagged coastline, the Marines make sense as the Corps being divisioned there. Or brigaded or regimented or whatever (as leading elements for a division.)
Gunny is a full time Marine forever.
Quote from: JasonPratt on October 24, 2014, 08:00:43 AM
Considering how much of Scandanavia is jagged coastline, the Marines make sense as the Corps being divisioned there. Or brigaded or regimented or whatever (as leading elements for a division.)
Agreed. I am curious to know if the US military has a division of "boots on the ground" labour in Europe, meaning assigned regions for the ground forces of the Navy & the Army. Makes perfect sense.
Many planes. Are they trying t get us complacent about these bomber flights?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/us-nato-russia-exercises-idUSKBN0II27S20141029
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on October 29, 2014, 07:01:36 PM
Many planes. Are they trying t get us complacent about these bomber flights?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/us-nato-russia-exercises-idUSKBN0II27S20141029
Nah. They're just being nice about telling us how many missiles to buy before we start shooting them out of the sky.
QuoteIn the biggest exercise, four Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers, a Cold War icon since the 1950s equivalent to the U.S. B-52, flew out over the Norwegian Sea in the early hours of Wednesday, accompanied by four refueling tanker aircraft.
4 Bears and 4 tankers? Wow. We can't repel firepower of that magnitude ::)
http://www.businessinsider.com/poland-is-preparing-for-a-russian-invasion-2014-10
Good article...spooky how the word on the steeet used to be that war in Europe was impossible, and now it's kinda sorta possible again...paralleling 1914.
Poland's creation of a home army is very interesting.
"WOLVERINE!" anyone?
Quote from: bayonetbrant on October 31, 2014, 08:54:08 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/poland-is-preparing-for-a-russian-invasion-2014-10
That puts a different spin on things than I am used to. It's a good article, maybe closer to reality than many people would like. It sounds like it is saying, from the position of the US, let Russia and the EU beat the shit out of each other before coming to the rescue. Less competition for us.
Any country not taking it's self defense seriously is a fool.
I think what it says is that the Poles are ruefully aware of how many times they've been screwed over time, and the signals from our side not positive indicators, in their mind.
I think it is true that Obama is far more interested in coming to the aid of Africa than Europe.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on October 31, 2014, 10:24:35 AM
I think what it says is that the Poles are ruefully aware of how many times they've been screwed over time, and the signals from our side not positive indicators, in their mind.
IMHO, we (old NATO) need to establish a "permanent" base on Polish soil with Brit, Yank & Canuck (the furthest flung NATO members from Poland) infantry & armour onsite, 24/7.
As opposed to WWII, Polish allies will have direct supply lines to Poland (via Germany, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) should there be war with Russia. But the Russians would need to be insane to start a war. Seriously insane....
Old men can be dangerous, they only have a few years to lose. Young men can be dangerous, they think they have forever. Only us middle aged people are rational about time. :-p
Quote from: bayonetbrant on October 31, 2014, 10:24:35 AM
I think what it says is that the Poles are ruefully aware of how many times they've been screwed over time, and the signals from our side not positive indicators, in their mind.
Putin may be dumb, but he isn't stupid. From the article:
QuoteOnly Poland, which occupies the Alliance's central front, has the military power to seriously blunt any Russian moves westward.
If you're going to try to divide NATO, why strike where it is strongest? Like Ukraine and the Sudetenland, if he's going to do anything he'll pick at the edges first.
Quote from: LongBlade on October 31, 2014, 11:35:19 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on October 31, 2014, 10:24:35 AM
I think what it says is that the Poles are ruefully aware of how many times they've been screwed over time, and the signals from our side not positive indicators, in their mind.
Putin may be dumb, but he isn't stupid. From the article:
QuoteOnly Poland, which occupies the Alliance's central front, has the military power to seriously blunt any Russian moves westward.
If you're going to try to divide NATO, why strike where it is strongest? Like Ukraine and the Sudetenland, if he's going to do anything he'll pick at the edges first.
I agree with that. He knows he cannot win a real war with NATO. If he can force economic costs, which small members cannot bare, he can make an excuse for not coming to their aid. Yes, the fringes makes sense.
In addition to Poland being a strong front line of defense, from say a surprise move through Belarus, the Ukraine starts to look like a good point for a defensive barrier. Now that Ukraine seems to be voting to become more like the EU, sick of the Russian BS, you have to wonder if it is time to sell them real defensive firepower. Maybe even missile defense. Its a better location to stop middle east missiles as well.
Not exactly about Ukraine, but this may be topical to the thread.
Or not. Feel free to splice it as you wish, Brant.
QuoteA high-ranking military officer stands accused of espionage after his arrest in the country's defence ministry. A lawyer with contacts throughout parliament has been taken into custody on spying charges. Cyber attacks on the country's government have been linked to a foreign power.
In the neighbouring Czech Republic, security services warn of a surge in the number of foreign intelligence officers working out of Prague's embassies.
All the events are unconnected, the respective spy agencies say, save for one thing: Russia.
source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/60bc4b0e-6034-11e4-98e6-00144feabdc0.html
Quote from: bayonetbrant on October 31, 2014, 08:54:08 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/poland-is-preparing-for-a-russian-invasion-2014-10
I like this quote: ""They really have no idea what they are doing," he opined about Obama and his national security staff, "and we know it. You have no idea how many promises we've been given, even by the President himself, but there's never any follow-up, it's all talk. He thinks he's on Oprah."
God, I'm actually starting to miss Bush. :-[ Never thought I'd say that.
That's totally awesome, that our NATO allies are berift of confidence in us. Seems that our incompetence is mainly a thin layer of idiotic politicians that needs to be cracked wide open. I don't think there's many of us that would stand for this bullsh!t.
QuoteGod, I'm actually starting to miss Bush.
I'm missing just about any President since Reagan on. Even coat-tails George Sr.
and his son.
Man, how we need a Truman, Reagan, or someone similar now.
To clarify, I meant Little Bush. I actually respected and liked George, Sr.
But I think even the former would still be an improvement at this point.
Smucks bush would be an improvement.
In hindsight, Bush Sr. was of course much better than his son. Though at the time I saw Sr.'s ascendancy to the Oval Office more of a product of Reagan's coattails than any skill Sr. had. I was young and relatively dumb. Now, I'd gladly trade Obama for Bush Sr.
As for Smuck, no doubt the prospect of either Bush would make his head explode Scanners-style.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 04, 2014, 08:30:02 AM
Smucks bush would be an improvement.
Certainly he doesn't have one, though(?)!
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on November 04, 2014, 08:31:56 AM
In hindsight, Bush Sr. was of course much better than his son.
Dude, I could've told you that from Day One. :P
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on November 04, 2014, 08:31:56 AM
Though at the time I saw Sr.'s ascendancy to the Oval Office more of a product of Reagan's coattails than any skill Sr. had. I was young and relatively dumb.
No, that's long been my opinion as well, and it still is. Doesn't mean he wasn't fit for the job -- I believe he was -- but I do agree that was more-or-less how he got elected.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on November 04, 2014, 08:31:56 AM
Now, I'd gladly trade Obama for Bush Sr.
On that, I suspect just about everyone here would agree.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on November 04, 2014, 08:31:56 AM
As for Smuck, no doubt the prospect of either Bush would make his head explode Scanners-style.
<snicker>I have no comment at this time... :2funny:
In 2014 a Little Bush is better than no Bush at all.
Quote from: Gusington on November 04, 2014, 09:07:02 AM
In 2014 a Little Bush is better than no Bush at all.
This applies on so many levels, I cannot fathom a counter-argument.
if we're goign to start arguing presidential politics, please open a new thread in RPFW and let's keep this one focused on events in Ukraine.
Thanks!
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on November 04, 2014, 08:30:02 AM
Smucks bush would be an improvement.
Isn't Smuck's more like a savannah?
Quote from: pawelj on November 03, 2014, 07:59:04 PM
"He thinks he's on Oprah."
Fixed the translation goof there. >:D
I wonder what Condi Rice's opinion and advice would be? Anyone know if she's given a talk or article on it somewhere?
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/11/14/battle-ilovaisk-details-massacre-inside-rebel-held-eastern-ukraine-282003.html
Good article on the turning point of the war so far.
Thanks for posting that story.
Not sure if this was mentioned previously...the "Eurasian Union" is set to be a thing as of January 1 of next year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union
Holy crap. Brave new world.
Kinda looks like Warsaw Pact 2.0, though Kazakhstan has apparently stated they have no interest in a union with Russia. I guess they haven't been paying attention to the Ukraine this year.
In new Eurasia, you don't join Union...
In the Eurasian Union of Love, Russia is always on top.
And the neighbors always take it in the keister.
Putin gave a (largely unnoticed) speech a few days ago. Personally it sounds more like BS than any real vision, but he is attempting to sound relevant.
QuoteThe Russian blogger chipstone summarized the most salient points from Putin speech as follows:
1. Russia will no longer play games and engage in back-room negotiations over trifles. But Russia is prepared for serious conversations and agreements, if these are conducive to collective security, are based on fairness and take into account the interests of each side.
2. All systems of global collective security now lie in ruins. There are no longer any international security guarantees at all. And the entity that destroyed them has a name: The United States of America.
3. The builders of the New World Order have failed, having built a sand castle. Whether or not a new world order of any sort is to be built is not just Russia's decision, but it is a decision that will not be made without Russia.
4. Russia favors a conservative approach to introducing innovations into the social order, but is not opposed to investigating and discussing such innovations, to see if introducing any of them might be justified.
5. Russia has no intention of going fishing in the murky waters created by America's ever-expanding "empire of chaos," and has no interest in building a new empire of her own (this is unnecessary; Russia's challenges lie in developing her already vast territory). Neither is Russia willing to act as a savior of the world, as she had in the past.
6. Russia will not attempt to reformat the world in her own image, but neither will she allow anyone to reformat her in their image. Russia will not close herself off from the world, but anyone who tries to close her off from the world will be sure to reap a whirlwind.
7. Russia does not wish for the chaos to spread, does not want war, and has no intention of starting one. However, today Russia sees the outbreak of global war as almost inevitable, is prepared for it, and is continuing to prepare for it. Russia does not war—nor does she fear it.
8. Russia does not intend to take an active role in thwarting those who are still attempting to construct their New World Order—until their efforts start to impinge on Russia's key interests. Russia would prefer to stand by and watch them give themselves as many lumps as their poor heads can take. But those who manage to drag Russia into this process, through disregard for her interests, will be taught the true meaning of pain.
9. In her external, and, even more so, internal politics, Russia's power will rely not on the elites and their back-room dealing, but on the will of the people.
article and speech in full: http://cluborlov.blogspot.ca/2014/10/putin-to-western-elites-play-time-is.html?m=1
Let he who is without sin cast the first stone. Putin's about as non-sinner as they come in that case.
you asshole! you broke my sarcasm-meter.
I for one welcome our new/old Soviet Overlord. It's sad on all counts, really. The fall of the USSR was a golden opportunity for the world and it's just been squandered by everyone.
Our current leadership has left the world in a vacuum.
Nature abhors a vacuum and something always tries to replace it.
Russia, however, is not up to that task.
Putin has forgotten that every four to eight years US foreign policy gets an overhaul. The last time the world was left in flames by a US president was Carter. What happened after that?
Putin had best tread lightly.
I wish I saw a Reagan on the horizon. Then again, someone may rise up. Either way, it has to be an improvement over our current administration.
Quote from: Steelgrave on November 06, 2014, 10:32:31 AM
I wish I saw a Reagan on the horizon. Then again, someone may rise up. Either way, it has to be an improvement over our current administration.
Reagan was a two-bit washed up actor.
Patience, and shuffle the cards.
QuoteReagan was a two-bit washed up actor.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FDhrZxSoLmgA%2Fmaxresdefault.jpg&hash=4d45f45342e06f9a29dd3e48db0d7333f9159f10)
The nice thing about actors, they can follow their script.
The question is what will be on the next script?
Meanwhile, back in Ukraine:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-05/ukraine-truce-in-peril-as-russia-is-warned-on-sanctions.html
Quote
Ukraine's east was lurching back toward open war as the government in Kiev and pro-Russian rebels accused each other of launching major offensives in the region.
The Ukrainian government said there were 26 outbreaks of fighting today between its forces and pro-Russian separatists in the country's east, while the rebels said the Kiev government had launched a major offensive there.
Ukrainian troops are sticking to the cease-fire worked out two months ago and are "staying at their previous positions," the military press office said in a statement on its Facebook page. It said three Ukrainian servicemen were killed in today's fighting.
Russia's RIA Novosti state news agency quoted Andrei Purgin, deputy premier of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, as saying that Ukraine had begun a large-scale offensive against the separatists in the eastern part of the country. Purgin said he sees "all-out war" and claimed Ukrainian forces had broken the Sept. 5 truce, according to RIA.
I think LB is just trying to get our goat ::) Either that or he's more butt-hurt over the Aquaman jokes than we thought ;)
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 06, 2014, 11:42:34 AM
The nice thing about actors, they can follow their script.
The question is what will be on the next script?
Why, President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho, porn star and five-time ultimate smackdown wrestling champion!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpoliticalfilm.files.wordpress.com%2F2013%2F05%2Fblack-president-idiocracy.jpg&hash=ccd4327d240ce9735da0765a1ef58b4e1dd9302e)
Quote from: Steelgrave on November 06, 2014, 02:30:58 PM
I think LB is just trying to get our goat ::) Either that or he's more butt-hurt over the Aquaman jokes than we thought ;)
No, I'm not really either one of those.
Reagan, at least to my young eyes at that time, wasn't well known as a national player. Yeah, he'd been governator but his seriousness as a player (at least earlier in the primaries if my faded memory serves correctly) was being questioned and sometimes mocked.
My point is less to disparage Reagan than it is simply to say this: Reagan didn't look too much different in 1978 than the current crop of hopefuls. I'm not saying that a Reagan-like leader is destined to emerge, but I am saying that one *could* emerge from the current crop of prospects.
So don't despair.
I dont get this Reagan foreign policy love fest
I was over in Europe and the middle east at the time Reagan was president and believe me it was not good to see what he was doing.
He escalated the cold war to dangerous levels with a nuclear power (only thorough some claim divine intervention did we not have WWIII due to flocks of birds lighting off the NORAD system or Able Archer 1983)
Vetoed the anti-apartheid act against S. Africa
Supported a notorious strong man Suharto in Timor with arms sales despite huge revelations of torture and genocide on his own people (est 500,000 killed)
Circumvented congressional proscription to provide aid to anti communist mercenaries in the Iran Contra affair by selling arms to the Iranians (who were burning our flags etc)
Offered to provide the UK navy a loan out of the USS Iwo Jima to the British during the Falkland invasion and violated the US Monroe Doctrine all while keeping his own state department in the dark about this.
The point here is to not say that any president makes bad choices (they all do its the nature of the beast) but to deify Reagans foreign policy is looking at it with rose colored glasses and revisionist history. Give it 30 years from now and I bet that the vitriol, rhetoric and opinion on Obamas policy will be very different from what you hear and see right now in our 24 hour echo chamber of everyones an expert and wants instant answers and solutions to all of the worlds problems. Just like it was with Reagan then versus now.
Con
Got it, LB. Of course Reagan narrowly lost the Republican nomination to Jerry Ford in 1976. After the '76 loss a lot of die-hard Reagan supporters (myself included) were broken hearted, thinking Ronnie would never be President because he would be too old in four more years (ha!). I remember the nomination fight for the next election was pretty open at first, but Reagan took control early and then, of course, went on to serve 8 years as President. I'm not looking for the next Reagan, Ronnie was a once in a lifetime leader. But I'll be on board with the guy (or gal) who shows leadership, even if we don't agree on every political point.
Since this is a thread about the Ukraine Conflict....Putin is a tough nut, I'll give him that. But I don't think he would be quite as adventurous if he respected the American President more. Putin is taking advantage of American weakness as much as anything. It's to our shame that we have allowed things to deteriorate to the point that tyrants feel free to do as they wish.
And Con, we all have our opinions. I couldn't possibly disagree with yours more, both about Reagan and Obama, so let's keep it at that.
In marketing there is a saying "the reptilian always wins." It is referring to the primitive reptilian part of the brain which ignores higher faculty judgement. Reagan had slick hair, a winning smile, easy going confidence in his speeches. When people see that confidence they see winner. The topic is irrelevant. I saw the same thing at the time. It was not until after the whole contra thing I decided to try to re-evaluate objectively.
Putin is keeping the war low intensity to try to keep it under control. He will win a war of attrition against Ukraine. Ukraine will never take the war to Russia so he has nothing to lose. He will build nationalism, he will use it to consolidate permanent power, he will repeat with other neighbors.
The flaw IMO is that none of it is relevant to the success of Russia. Quite the contrary. Making Russia a rival again to the US and NATO is a loser strategy.
That's borderline insulting, Mr. Bigglesworth, and sounds very much like the media/left wing attempts to portray Reagan as a failed actor playing at the Presidency. You are right, however...the topic is irrelevant and doesn't really belong on this thread. The world is stuck with the hand we dealt them when we elected (and somehow reelected) Mr. Obama. Putin is playing in the big leagues while everyone else is trying to decide who the players should be. Not a good time to be on their border.
Disagreement is OK but misunderstanding is a not. My point is that presidents make bad choices and good ones let history decide which one it will be and not have a knee reaction because you dislike someone.
IMO a Reagan/Putin matchup would be extremely dangerous in todays world because of the lack of understanding and respect both sides would have for each other and the ability to bluster and pose would almost certainly lead to an armed conflict from which there are no winners only more US soldiers killed in an Eastern European conflict.
Con
You could be right, Con, but I wonder. Putin seems to have found his aggression at the precise moment when Obama was trying to withdraw at every opportunity from the world stage.
One wonders how he might have reacted if confronted with strength.
Steelgrave,
We all fall for it, even PhD experts who study it. Read "Influence". The top marketers get paid millions to influence us in many ways. Lots of hard nosed business people feel they are earning the money.
Quote from: LongBlade on November 06, 2014, 08:44:12 PM
You could be right, Con, but I wonder. Putin seems to have found his aggression at the precise moment when Obama was trying to withdraw at every opportunity from the world stage.
One wonders how he might have reacted if confronted with strength.
You know, my entire high school experience changed for the better the day I decked the school bully in gym class. I think Putin is gonna be Putin, but part of being Putin involves playing the bully and taking lunch money from the kids who can't fight back. There is a perceived leadership vacuum which Putin is all too happy to take advantage of. One might question if the Chinese would be quite so adventurous without the presence of the same vacuum.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 06, 2014, 08:47:29 PM
Steelgrave,
We all fall for it, even PhD experts who study it. Read "Influence". The top marketers get paid millions to influence us in many ways. Lots of hard nosed business people feel they are earning the money.
I call bs on the whole "fall for it" line. You might as well be patting our arms and "tut tutting" in sympathy. Cut it out. I don't mythologize Reagan, but I have followed politics since I was a child and I regard him as the greatest President of my lifetime. If you disagree, fine. But don't attempt to marginalize people who have a different opinion than yours by suggesting we "fell for it" or it was the "slick hair". This is not the Religion and Politics thread, if you want to start a fight, take it over there.
It's a valid view. I think we all discussed it at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict. If it was a 2 party zero sum game, countering with strength would be fine. It is greatly complicated by several big powers that would move to capitalize on a NATO Russia war.
Quote from: Steelgrave on November 06, 2014, 08:53:00 PMYou know, my entire high school experience changed for the better the day I decked the school bully in gym class.
That was the class between "cuneiform" and "chariot repair" right? ;)
Seriously, though, if that bully had fought back, it would've only been your nose bloodied. If someone miscalculates their wing at Putin, there's a lot more blood than a bloody nose.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on November 06, 2014, 09:04:07 PM
Quote from: Steelgrave on November 06, 2014, 08:53:00 PMYou know, my entire high school experience changed for the better the day I decked the school bully in gym class.
That was the class between "cuneiform" and "chariot repair" right? ;)
Seriously, though, if that bully had fought back, it would've only been your nose bloodied. If someone miscalculates their wing at Putin, there's a lot more blood than a bloody nose.
Agreed. Yet much of international politics revolves around not miscalculating your opponents response, no? In our case, Putin seems to have gotten it right on.
And I saw what you did there, smartass. 8)
Let's hope that foreign policy is not decided by schoolyard experiences
I just think today's world is as different to the Cold War politically economically racially and technically as post WWI was to those nations.
IMO it's very hard to say that one leader would have been better than another in this age because it doesn't take into account the thirty years of events globally that got us here. How would The Cold War have gone if Russia held 8% of the US public debt (same amount as China)? How much freedom would a president have to make deals when they are endlessly broadcast dissected and debated by all political spectrums on a 24 hour instant so called expert analysis news cycle. In some ways the world was a simpler place thirty years ago and that gave us actually more leverage and ironically freedom
Con
Quote from: Con on November 06, 2014, 09:07:59 PM
I just think today's world is as different to the Cold War politically economically racially and technically as post WWI was to those nations.
Con
That I agree with. And even with Russia taking advantage of current circumstances, I have a difficult time envisioning a new Cold War. The world is inter-connected economically in ways which were unimaginable thirty years ago.
Meanwhile the Russian economy continues to crater. Initially I thought that this was going to force Russia to its knees but now I am getting concerns that due to the irrationality of Putin that it might end up pushing Russia into a forlorn war of desperation.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/annaborshchevskaya/2014/11/06/what-will-happen-to-putins-approval-ratings-once-russias-economy-plumments/
Con
ah the old lets have a war to keep domestic troubles ignored trick.
Using schoolyard bullying as an analogy: back in the early 80s, decking a bully made them humble and leave you alone. (I did this as well, though it was in 5th grade and made the rest of my school year MUCH less stressful.)
Today, you deck a bully, the next day they bring a gun to school and shoot the place up.
Nobody teaches the value of humility anymore; kids are being raised to not know how to downshift their emotions when faced with adversity or humiliation. Most people purposefully avoid humiliating kids, but to be perfectly honest, that's the BEST training tool to bring up healthy adults with. We all faced it in our younger years. I got my ass paddled in 5th grade for punching out the bully, but it was worth it. Got my ass smacked and returned to class. Today they'd kick your ass out and your parents would get sued.
Anyway...comparing that to Putin, he's a modern-day bully. If we gave him a figurative sock to the jaw I think he'd react by leveling small countries. He's one of those tantrum-fueled psycho kids that goes off the deep end when he doesn't get his way, and his mommy and daddy sit to the side and go "Oh, it's just a phase" as he screams at the top of his lungs.
That said, consider this - what's worse, having the enemy you know in charge, or the one you don't know in charge? How many psychopath closet Commies are waiting in the wings if Putin should drop dead (God forbid, of course ::) )?
Whoa! That's some deep shit there BC. Looks dead-on too.
And now back to your regularly scheduled programming.
QuoteA column of 32 tanks, 16 howitzer artillery systems and trucks carrying ammunition and fighters has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia, the Kiev military said on Friday.
"The deployment continues of military equipment and Russian mercenaries to the front lines," spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in a televised briefing referring to Thursday's cross-border incursion.
The report of a new Russian movement of armor across the border follows a charge on Thursday by pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine that Kiev government forces had launched a new offensive - which Kiev immediately denied.
source: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/ukraine-russian-tanks-roll_818396.html
I'm curious what they're calling "tanks"
30 tanks is a full tank battalion. More likely it's 30 BMPs and someone thinks anything with tracks and a turret is a 'tank'
Quote from: bayonetbrant on November 07, 2014, 10:40:25 AM
I'm curious what they're calling "tanks"
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffiles.sharenator.com%2F307796.jpg&hash=9e46a65c1df9c5cbe3a8b6d51b4cf00ccd11561b)
Are long range artillery able to load cluster munitions? Are cluster munitions enough to 'spend' explosive reactive armor? Would those tanks be eaten by RPGs once their ER armor is gone? Killing expensive tanks on the cheap seems like a way to turn back the russian columns.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 07, 2014, 12:15:41 PM
Are long range artillery able to load cluster munitions?
Ours can. Dunno about Warsaw Pact capabilities.
Quote from: LongBlade on November 07, 2014, 12:36:57 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 07, 2014, 12:15:41 PM
Are long range artillery able to load cluster munitions?
Ours can. Dunno about Warsaw Pact capabilities.
First on the list to sell to the Ukes....
We have some lovely ways to kill armor cheaply these days -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBU-97_Sensor_Fuzed_Weapon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBU-97_Sensor_Fuzed_Weapon)
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=97677 (http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=97677)
Quotea single B-52 high altitude heavy bomber can destroy an entire armored division with these bombs, where in the past dozens of aircraft would have had to drop hundreds of bombs for the same effect
The Ukes could use a couple of those right about now.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin's portrayal of himself as a defender of ethnic Russians has prompted many to wonder whether Kazakhstan is next on the hit list.
Such fears are intensified by some Russian politicians who occasionally make remarks about "taking back" northern Kazakhstan amid growing anti-Russian sentiment there.
President Putin was recently asked about nationalism in northern Kazakhstan at a youth forum. If it is true that all questions for Mr Putin are carefully picked and censored, then this could be interpreted as a warning for Kazakhstan's government. "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29843980
Ah, yes. The protection of good old ethnic enclaves.
A time-honored tradition among fascists.
I wonder if China would consider a Russian annexation/invasion of Kazakhstan a threat.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on November 10, 2014, 09:39:02 AM
I wonder if China would consider a Russian annexation/invasion of Kazakhstan a threat.
More likely an invitation a la Molotov-Ribbentrop.
They could certainly play the ethnic-minority-needs-our-protection card. Goodness knows they have with India and points south over the years.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-russia-media-idUSKCN0IU1UO20141110
sounds like a front for KGB operations to me.
Yup.
BBC is reporting Breedlove thinks the russkies are putting nuke capable iskander missiles in Crimea. The wiki page makes them look like a very capable system. I think the end is near for eastern Ukraine. One stupid little man is going to set large swaths of the earth ablaze.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 12, 2014, 12:01:30 PM
BBC is reporting Breedlove thinks the russkies are putting nuke capable iskander missiles in Crimea. The wiki page makes them look like a very capable system. I think the end is near for eastern Ukraine. One stupid little man is going to set large swaths of the earth ablaze.
That's all it takes...one stupid man, with millions of stupid sheep following him blindly.
To misquote Spock "The needs of the many, outweigh the desires of the one."
Doesn't that seem odd? Putin worked so hard to get US countermeasures out of Poland (et al).
Now he's inviting those + theater level missiles back in.
Maybe it's for domestic consumption.
The Ruskies have had Iskanders in the Western Military District for awhile now. So the Crimea move probably is meant for domestic propaganda.
Wonder which Aegis ships we currently have parked in the Black Sea. Would love to see a real world test of the ABM capability.
http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-nato-says-russian-military-equipment-entering-east-ukraine-2014-11
QuoteNATO has observed columns of Russian military equipment including tanks, artillery, and combat troops entering eastern Ukraine in the past two days, the military alliance's supreme allied commander said Wednesday.
"Across the last two days we have seen the same thing that OSCE is reporting. We have seen columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems, and Russian combat troops entering into Ukraine," he added.
He noted that NATO did "not have a good picture at this time of how many. We agree that there are multiple columns that we have seen."
Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) reported on Tuesday seeing a convoy of 43 unmarked military trucks — five towing Howitzer heavy artillery pieces and another five multilaunch rocket systems — traveling into the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.
It was the latest in a string of recent sightings of unmarked trucks and heavy weapons heading toward the frontline in rebel-controlled areas.
Heavy artillery fire rocked Donetsk on Wednesday. Ukraine's military said one soldier had been killed and two wounded, including one at the airport, as its positions came under repeated shelling around the region.
"What worries me the most is that we have a situation now that the former international border between Ukraine and Russia is completely porous, it is completely wide open," NATO Commander Philip Breedlove said.
"Forces, money, support, supplies, weapons are flowing back and forth across this border completely at will and that is not a good situation," he said.
"We need to get back to a situation where this international border is respected and that will help us to contain the problem of re-supply into eastern Ukraine."
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic1.businessinsider.com%2Fimage%2F54635687ecad04b94ca12571-1200-1000%2F12-11engjpg12112014121349.jpg&hash=13c12ef30dc2b72f55b42d118e0cf8f6add4ef39)
Jesus tapdancing Christ.
Couple dozen MOABs would nip that sh!t in the bud.
I'm putting my helmet on regardless and not taking it off for a while.
its gonna turn purple and fall off man.
It's not looking good anyway.
And the picky part of my mind is meanwhile critiquing the infographic design: areas supposedly "liberated" are also listed as under terrorist control; and at least three icons on the right don't show up on the map at all. :buck2:
PRIORITIES, PEOPLE, PRIORITIES!
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 13, 2014, 09:07:57 AM
And the picky part of my mind is meanwhile critiquing the infographic design: areas supposedly "liberated" are also listed as under terrorist control; and at least three icons on the right don't show up on the map at all. :buck2:
PRIORITIES, PEOPLE, PRIORITIES!
Always use the USA Today part of your brain when viewing infographics.
QuoteRussia plans to send long-range bombers to patrol the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, the nation's defense minister said, in what may be Moscow's latest provocative maneuver.
source: http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/13/world/europe/russia-bombers-plan/index.html
Im not impressed. we still have more 50 year old B-52s alone then their entire bomber fleet. add to that the fact that we've been running combat missions from the CONUS to Iraq, A-stan and Syria and Im even more not impressed.
Quote from: LongBlade on November 13, 2014, 10:47:07 AM
QuoteRussia plans to send long-range bombers to patrol the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, the nation's defense minister said, in what may be Moscow's latest provocative maneuver.
source: http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/13/world/europe/russia-bombers-plan/index.html
Russia's a lippy whore asking for a pimp slap from her John.
Yeah, wake me when the Ruskies can fly more than a couple of Bears near CONUS. ::)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcountry-balls.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F07%2Fcountry-balls-russia-is-scary.png&hash=f9d79bbf0812378e3cd861af46728d2889ffd459)
I guess it doesn't matter. The moment those bombers open bay doors, they die.
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 13, 2014, 01:29:25 PM
I guess it doesn't matter. The moment those bombers open bay doors, they die.
They should get first crack at 'em.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F3%2F3e%2FRoyal_Netherlands_Air_Force_F-16_Fighting_Falcon.JPG&hash=2b6b3ede4820505376c32ceb2b593ac8ca60aa7b)
I think all the NATO nations should be broaching their air space - that'd be a hoot to see them try and respond >:D
Quote from: Centurion40 on November 13, 2014, 01:35:05 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 13, 2014, 01:29:25 PM
I guess it doesn't matter. The moment those bombers open bay doors, they die.
They should get first crack at 'em.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F3%2F3e%2FRoyal_Netherlands_Air_Force_F-16_Fighting_Falcon.JPG&hash=2b6b3ede4820505376c32ceb2b593ac8ca60aa7b)
Hey! That's Polly Grey on the tail! My dad flew in that squadron (322nd) when it was equipped with Hawker Hunters in the early 60's. It was originally a Dutch-staffed Spitfire squadron in the RAF which was then absorbed into the Royal Dutch Airforce (the KLu) after the end of the 2nd World War.
Quote from: Staggerwing on November 13, 2014, 07:42:16 PM
Hey! That's Polly Grey on the tail! My dad flew in that squadron (322nd) when it was equipped with Hawker Hunters in the early 60's. It was originally a Dutch-staffed Spitfire squadron in the RAF which was then absorbed into the Royal Dutch Airforce (the KLu) after the end of the 2nd World War.
Cool!
Putin may actually be batshit crazy
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-g-20-were-warships-085535367.html (http://news.yahoo.com/russia-g-20-were-warships-085535367.html)
This is pretty good.
Quote"Russia is being much more assertive now than it has been for a very long time," he said at a press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron, also in Australia for the summit. "Interestingly, Russia's economy is declining even as Russia's assertiveness is increasing."
Quote from: mirth on November 14, 2014, 09:56:29 AM
Putin may actually be batshit crazy
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-g-20-were-warships-085535367.html (http://news.yahoo.com/russia-g-20-were-warships-085535367.html)
This is pretty good.
Quote"Russia is being much more assertive now than it has been for a very long time," he said at a press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron, also in Australia for the summit. "Interestingly, Russia's economy is declining even as Russia's assertiveness is increasing."
Yup. The Russian economy is tanking as oil prices fall.
US domestic production is approaching levels where we're about to become the world's largest energy
exporter.
Think about that.
Saudi Arabia is boosting production to try and limit US production - it's costlier for us to refine shale oil than their raw oil.
Nevertheless, the net result is too much supply, and prices are falling.
All this saber rattling may be Putin grasping for an attempt to hold on to power.
BTW, my daughter looked up Putin's height last night out of curiosity. He's 5'7". In other words, he's at risk of being mistaken for Gus in a dwarf tossing contest.
I've been hearing/reading a lot about falling prices and the effect on US production. Basically, it will take a prolonged period (6-12months) of oil under $50/bbl to seriously impact US production. There still many ways we can improve shale oil production to reduce the cost per barrel. Even with falling prices, the predictions are for increased US production, though the rate of increase will slow.
Bad news for countries like Russia and Iran. Suck it.
I've read a few times that he's not even 5'7", but 5'5". And if he says he's 5'5", he's really 5'1".
Similar to how I tell eople I am 6'4" and black.
Re: North American oil production -- and that doesn't even count oil sands yet. Sooner or later the technology to use those will be economically viable, and then whew!
Meanwhile HOW GREAT WOULD IT BE IF PUTIN GREW A DWARF BEARD!?
I would search the internet to see if someone has shopped this already, but I fear the results I'll get for trying to google it.
Quote from: mirth on November 14, 2014, 09:56:29 AM
Putin may actually be batshit crazy
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-g-20-were-warships-085535367.html (http://news.yahoo.com/russia-g-20-were-warships-085535367.html)
This is pretty good.
Quote"Russia is being much more assertive now than it has been for a very long time," he said at a press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron, also in Australia for the summit. "Interestingly, Russia's economy is declining even as Russia's assertiveness is increasing."
Vlad the Mad.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.cagle.com%2Fworking%2F061127%2Fschopf.jpg&hash=e9fd850e95ed7cbfa7d2ed77b7dbca9906be0855)
The new boss, same as the old boss.
http://www.historyplace.com/worldhistory/genocide/stalin.htm
Quote from: JasonPratt on November 14, 2014, 04:39:18 PM
Meanwhile HOW GREAT WOULD IT BE IF PUTIN GREW A DWARF BEARD!?
Not much photoshop out there for this. Maybe Banzai can work his magic. This is the best I found:
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.freakingnews.com%2Fpictures%2F96000%2FEmperor-Vladimir-Putin--96051.jpg&hash=6a3ed23b2083e709f0eabd94cb1e2993cd974346)
^^ Not a dwarf, but reasonably good in its own right. 8)
I'm pleased to see *someone* is showing some backbone.
QuoteThe Russian president is reportedly planning to leave the summit early on Sunday and miss its official lunch in response to repeated criticism from western leaders.
The move comes after Tony Abbott, the Australian Prime Minister, threatened to "shirt front" Mr Putin - a form of physical confrontation. Stephen Harper, the Canadian Prime Minister, told Mr Putin: "I guess I'll shake your hand, but I'll only have one thing to say to you - get out of the Ukraine."
Mr Cameron told Mr Putin that he is at a "crossroads" and could face further sanctions after the pair held "robust" discussions on Ukraine.
source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11232995/Vladimir-Putin-to-leave-G20-early-after-tense-meeting-with-David-Cameron.html
Good!
It's sad that Australia has to stand up to Russia, though. Where's the nads on the rest of the world?
in Michelles pocket. ::)
well, it was a bunch of Aussies on that Malaysian flight the Russians shot down
Quote from: bayonetbrant on November 15, 2014, 08:11:05 PM
well, it was a bunch of Aussies on that Malaysian flight the Russians shot down
Not just Aussies.
The Dutch crash investigators are still being thwarted from processing most of the crash site by Putin's pet gun monkeys.
Remember history, Vlad: the Canadians were the only invading group who actually scared Rommel! :knuppel2:
If Canada and Australia decide your time has come, your time will have damn well come.
Quote from: LongBlade on November 15, 2014, 12:22:51 AM
Not much photoshop out there for this. Maybe Banzai can work his magic.
Not really magic after a few minutes' worth of tweaking layers and filters, but here you go:
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1175.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fr624%2FMichaelE6%2FPutinDwarf.jpg&hash=727e7f988e15bc78168dc9783a9111d41bc9eb58)
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on November 17, 2014, 09:51:00 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on November 15, 2014, 12:22:51 AM
Not much photoshop out there for this. Maybe Banzai can work his magic.
Not really magic after a few minutes' worth of tweaking layers and filters, but here you go:
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1175.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fr624%2FMichaelE6%2FPutinDwarf.jpg&hash=727e7f988e15bc78168dc9783a9111d41bc9eb58)
Awesome. That's better that I can do.
Some day I've got to learn Photoshop. They you guys would really be in trouble.
...Dwarf Putin 100% makes my day. O:-)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/angela-merkel/11236622/Angela-Merkel-warns-Russia-could-seek-to-destabilise-whole-of-the-European-peaceful-order.html
Everyone has been thinking it, finally AFAIK, a world leader has said it to the press for wide consumption.
...and it came from the German Chancellor, on top of that. How very interesting.
Not in a 'hay guise this is like WWII LOL' way but in a leader of a very PC country way.
Europe doesn't have much of a military these days, but I sure wouldn't want to be on the pointy end of trying to convince them to change that.
Theres quite a bit of recent combat time that they have now.
I thought the Germans were kind of cozy with the Russians right now...no?
Quote from: Gusington on November 18, 2014, 09:35:23 AM
I thought the Germans were kind of cozy with the Russians right now...no?
They were cozy before, too. ;)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wargamer.com%2Fforums%2Fsmiley%2FTakecover.gif&hash=9e0f9e63bbb3884905aff2bf0b4c414a58bb0a31)
Hmm, true...
Again, nothing to do with Ukraine specifically, but since we're keeping tabs on Russia in this thread...
A spike in airspace incursions in the Baltic, broken down by country: https://news.yahoo.com/surge-russian-aircraft-seen-over-baltic-sea-170649616.html
I was reading that story and began to wonder how many CF-18's we have deployed overseas ? Hopefully, we still have one or two here in country for air shows and stuff ;D
More news on Russia. All the fraking going on here in the US is helping to drive down the price of oil.
Commensurately, the Russian economy has taken a hit.
QuoteThe country is losing up to $140 billion per year because of falling oil prices and sanctions with Western nations, according to estimates from Russia's finance minister Anton Siluanov.
Siluanov said in a speech on Monday that falling oil prices were causing the most damage -- leading to $90 billion to $100 billion in annual losses. Russia, which is a major oil exporter, has suffered immensely as oil prices have fallen by roughly 30% since hitting a recent peak in June.
source: http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/24/news/economy/russia-losing-140-billion-oil-sanctions/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
Keep on frakking down there you hear? ..... its for the good of soooo many US-philes... and soooooo bad for US-phobes. If you do that for twenty years, Russia and the Middle East will solve themselves.
We win! Right?
TJ (http://grogheads.com/forums/index.php?action=profile;u=915) is in Ukraine as one of the OESC observers, and these are the kinds of incidents he's investigating - a rebel artillery round missed the checkpoint they were aiming for and hit a funeral procession instead
TJ is at about the 3:20 mark or so
Yikes.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/25/us-ukraine-crisis-germany-insight-idUSKCN0J91EN20141125
People seem determined to not see war on the horizon. It can't be! I don't want it so it is not there!
I feel so sorry for the military haters that will turn rabid far too late to be of any help. They might as well start drinking now.
QuoteThe meeting in Brisbane, and a separate one in Milan one month before -- where Putin made promises about Russian behavior in eastern Ukraine that German officials say were broken within days -- pushed frustration levels in Berlin to new heights. Merkel had hit a diplomatic dead-end with Putin.
Irony has no statute of limitations.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 25, 2014, 02:38:47 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/25/us-ukraine-crisis-germany-insight-idUSKCN0J91EN20141125
People seem determined to not see war on the horizon. It can't be! I don't want it so it is not there!
I feel so sorry for the military haters that will turn rabid far too late to be of any help. They might as well start drinking now.
Hat's off to the Russians. They are really playing a pro-level game in Europe, if the article is accurate.
Next spring will be an interesting one. Russia's economy will be even more tanked, hawks circling in DC, ISIS holed up in Syrian cities.... cheap[ish]energy fueling a western economic rebound...
Hell, the next level of playing Europe for a fool would be Pissing on them. Some of them would still say "I did not expect the rain to be so warm in Moscow, Comrade Stalin, I mean Putin!"
Give me a break. They are scared, plain and simple. Clearly there is good reason, he has nukes by the 1000s. The clear indication is he will take at least Ukraine.
That was a scary article. Putin is playing the 19th century game, like the article referenced. And Europe has been trying its hardest to forget the 19th (and 20th) centuries. Can it even play the game at all anymore? Looks like Germany still can but it can't go alone.
QuoteThe US Army plans to deploy about 150 tanks and armoured vehicles to NATO countries next year and some of the heavy armour may be stationed in Eastern Europe, a top American general said on Tuesday.
The move is part of a US effort dubbed Operation Atlantic Resolve in the Baltic states and Poland to reassure allies anxious about a resurgent Russia, with American troops deploying for several months at a time to conduct joint exercises.
Nearly 50 armoured vehicles are already in place and another 100 M1 Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles will be "pre-positioned" in Germany and possibly elsewhere for the US troops conducting drills with NATO partners, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges said in a phone interview from Estonia.
After the training is over the troops will return to the US. But the tanks will stay.
source: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/world/united-states/story/us-army-may-station-tanks-eastern-europe-general-20141126
^ Was that called REFORGER back in the day, when US forces pre-stored heavy weapons and equipment in West Germany just in case of a little Warsaw Pact fracas?
Yes. REturn of FOrces to GERmany.
Oh, cool! I remember REFORGER being referenced back then, but never got the acronym. 8)
....now I feel horribly old again. :buck2:
^You are.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 25, 2014, 04:59:36 PM
Hell, the next level of playing Europe for a fool would be Pissing on them. Some of them would still say "I did not expect the rain to be so warm in Moscow, Comrade Stalin, I mean Putin!"
Give me a break. They are scared, plain and simple. Clearly there is good reason, he has nukes by the 1000s. The clear indication is he will take at least Ukraine.
There will be no nukes used.... too many mafia bosses in positions of power in Russia that would have their day's ruined if that happened. Putin will take the low hanging fruit then call it a day.
Isn't Moldova lovely around Christmas time? After a nice rest, of course. Carving up eastern Europe and the Balkans is tiring work.
Quote from: Windigo on November 26, 2014, 01:13:02 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 25, 2014, 04:59:36 PM
Hell, the next level of playing Europe for a fool would be Pissing on them. Some of them would still say "I did not expect the rain to be so warm in Moscow, Comrade Stalin, I mean Putin!"
Give me a break. They are scared, plain and simple. Clearly there is good reason, he has nukes by the 1000s. The clear indication is he will take at least Ukraine.
There will be no nukes used.... too many mafia bosses in positions of power in Russia that would have their day's ruined if that happened. Putin will take the low hanging fruit then call it a day.
It's east to think rationality will settle in. As I read about WWI it seems leaders found it increasingly hard to admit they had made a mistake, as the body count climbed. Lets face it, if you botch getting a country in a war, life expectancy becomes short. 100 years ago they chose in for a penny, in for a pound.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 26, 2014, 08:40:13 PM
It's east to think rationality will settle in. As I read about WWI it seems leaders found it increasingly hard to admit they had made a mistake, as the body count climbed. Lets face it, if you botch getting a country in a war, life expectancy becomes short. 100 years ago they chose in for a penny, in for a pound.
I'm not sure human nature has evolved that much.
I hope you're right.
So lets see, at the beginning of WWII Hitler annexed Austria. Then he used protecting German minorities as a pretext to annex part of Czech, then invade Czech.
The reason Russia is still playing this game must be they see a way forward. I bet it will be, the collapse of the economy will be used to say democracy is not working, they must become a totalitarian state. Vlad the terrible or Vlad the mad will be the guiding light back to a great Empire. Such a scenario would demand great media theatrics. Wow the people with showmanship, they will not care that none of it makes sense.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on November 27, 2014, 11:03:25 AM
So lets see, at the beginning of WWII Hitler annexed Austria. Then he used protecting German minorities as a pretext to annex part of Czech, then invade Czech.
The reason Russia is still playing this game must be they see a way forward. I bet it will be, the collapse of the economy will be used to say democracy is not working, they must become a totalitarian state. Vlad the terrible or Vlad the mad will be the guiding light back to a great Empire. Such a scenario would demand great media theatrics. Wow the people with showmanship, they will not care that none of it makes sense.
If this really is history repeating itself, then Pawel is right, Czar/Premier Putin needs a bloody nose. The problem is that the Russkies will spin it as our imperialist aggression, and he will gain more popular support.
Worrying about his popular support in-country is not what we should be focused on. If what the West does to deter him leaves him looking lesser in the eyes of the Russian public more so the better but he needs to be stopped even if it makes him more popular. A Cult of Putin might help him somewhat at home but he will never create a full-blown Stalinist State on the order of North Korea.
I doubt Russians will ever again sink to those depths of extreme deprivation required for his end-game ambitions now that they have had at least a taste of the better life. The 'middle management' will collectively act against him when it has lost enough blood and treasure of it's own to his imperial adventure. He does have the potential to cause great harm to both Europe and Russia before the hammer drops on him.
Quote from: Staggerwing on November 27, 2014, 11:26:28 AM
Worrying about his popular support in-country is not what we should be focused on. If what the West does to deter him leaves him looking lesser in the eyes of the Russian public more so the better but he needs to be stopped even if it makes him more popular. A Cult of Putin might help him somewhat at home but he will never create a full-blown Stalinist State on the order of North Korea.
I doubt Russians will ever again sink to those depths of extreme deprivation required for his end-game ambitions now that they have had at least a taste of the better life. The 'middle management' will collectively act against him when it has lost enough blood and treasure of it's own to his imperial adventure. He does have the potential to cause great harm to both Europe and Russia before the hammer drops on him.
Again, history has an example of how these things can play out. There was a military officer who thought Hitler was mad, that England and France would never allow Germany to take part of Czech. He resigned then started to organize an overthrow of the leader that would destroy Germany. Then when Hitler came back having won over Chamberlain with claims he was just trying to protect people, he did not want war, it all ended. Hitler had won. In fact it was such a rush he could not stop.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_Beck (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_Beck)
I think putin's popular support is something that can carry the situation to full blown war. Without it, he probably cannot force the military to do things that will endanger the country. If he is able to stare down NATO once, the military may decide to follow him. I wonder if that captured Seargent who said "their boys" should not be in Ukraine is an undercurrenti n the military?
Not directly related to the Ukraine, but this bit was somewhat interesting I thought.
My boss's boss got back from a European meeting of bigwigs in my company in Sheffield, UK last week. He took a few days' vacation in Belgium and was floored that most people there think Obama is an idiot and feel VERY unprotected because of the lack of support our 'hope and change President' has for our military. He was further surprised that most people there fear Russian invasion. We're talking Belgium, not Poland. That's kind of telling.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 01, 2014, 01:16:38 PM
Not directly related to the Ukraine, but this bit was somewhat interesting I thought.
My boss's boss got back from a European meeting of bigwigs in my company in Sheffield, UK last week. He took a few days' vacation in Belgium and was floored that most people there think Obama is an idiot and feel VERY unprotected because of the lack of support our 'hope and change President' has for our military. He was further surprised that most people there fear Russian invasion. We're talking Belgium, not Poland. That's kind of telling.
Interesting.
I wonder about the sample - a group of CEOs is not the average Joe The Plumber.
Still, it is interesting to know.
In other news, Staggerwing is working on the VASSAL module for Orange Crush. More as it develops
edit: f'n' autoco-wreck
Quote from: LongBlade on December 01, 2014, 01:18:18 PM
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 01, 2014, 01:16:38 PM
Not directly related to the Ukraine, but this bit was somewhat interesting I thought.
My boss's boss got back from a European meeting of bigwigs in my company in Sheffield, UK last week. He took a few days' vacation in Belgium and was floored that most people there think Obama is an idiot and feel VERY unprotected because of the lack of support our 'hope and change President' has for our military. He was further surprised that most people there fear Russian invasion. We're talking Belgium, not Poland. That's kind of telling.
Interesting.
I wonder about the sample - a group of CEOs is not the average Joe The Plumber.
Still, it is interesting to know.
No no, the meeting was in the UK with bigwigs.
His contact with folks in Belgium was just normal folk - his taxi driver, hotel workers, people they ran into in restaurants, local shops, that kind of thing. At least that's what he described.
Huh.
Interesting.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 01, 2014, 01:19:08 PM
In other news, Staggering is working on the VASSAL module for Orange Crush. More as it develops
What is Staggering? That you can't get someone's name correct? ;D
Looking forward the VASSAL module.... is there actually a game?
Quote from: Barthheart on December 01, 2014, 01:27:15 PMLooking forward the VASSAL module.... is there actually a game?
suckit
;)
Quote from: Barthheart on December 01, 2014, 01:27:15 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 01, 2014, 01:19:08 PM
In other news, Staggering is working on the VASSAL module for Orange Crush. More as it develops
What is Staggering? That you can't get someone's name correct? ;D
Looking forward the VASSAL module.... is there actually a game?
Im currently writing the review.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 01, 2014, 01:16:38 PM
Not directly related to the Ukraine, but this bit was somewhat interesting I thought.
My boss's boss got back from a European meeting of bigwigs in my company in Sheffield, UK last week. He took a few days' vacation in Belgium and was floored that most people there think Obama is an idiot and feel VERY unprotected because of the lack of support our 'hope and change President' has for our military. He was further surprised that most people there fear Russian invasion. We're talking Belgium, not Poland. That's kind of telling.
Now I've never been on a NATO deployment, but I know people (all CF) who have and they have a very low opinion of the Belgian military and their capabilities. I believe that words like "pompous" & "whiny" were used to describe them. Therefore it doesn't really surprise me that the average Belgian might sound somewhat timid. Someone should remind them that Russians would have to get through the Germans before they make it to Belgium.
Brant, you've played in that neck of the woods, any thoughts?
Yeah, my thought is "I lived there 30 years ago; I think some things have changed"
;)
The Wife flies internationally for work and the only nationality that she got into a physical altercation with were Belgian, because she claimed they were very rude, whiny and would not let her de-board her plane to make a connection. When she finally did deboard she ran with her rolling luggage and knocked two of the old Belgian gits down with her bag...Schleiffen aint got nothing on her.
Thus corraborating 40Cent's anecdote, above.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 01, 2014, 01:19:08 PM
In other news, Staggerwing is working on the VASSAL module for Orange Crush. More as it develops
edit: f'n' autoco-wreck
I'm almost afraid to ask what it said before the edit. Guess I'll find out if it ends up in someone's sig!
Quote from: Staggerwing on December 01, 2014, 07:10:02 PMI'm almost afraid to ask what it said before the edit. Guess I'll find out if it ends up in someone's sig!
edited out the "W"
Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 01, 2014, 02:27:25 PM
Yeah, my thought is "I lived there 30 years ago; I think some things have changed"
;)
Heh. Quite perceptive of you.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 01, 2014, 07:21:28 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on December 01, 2014, 07:10:02 PMI'm almost afraid to ask what it said before the edit. Guess I'll find out if it ends up in someone's sig!
edited out the "W"
LOL! I've had my fair share of moments when that was right on the money... :buck2:
QuoteSchleiffen aint got nothing on her.
Bravo!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.reactiongifs.com%2Fr%2F2012%2F09%2Forson_wells_Slow-Clap.gif&hash=3e0cc3973976f84c7b29be148cbbef678839b8f3)
Thank you, Sir. She's flying today so if you hear about some international incident involving Belgians, well...
Quote
The Russian government has for the first time acknowledged that the country will fall into recession next year, battered by the combination of Western sanctions and a plunge in the price of its oil exports.
The economic development ministry on Tuesday revised its GDP forecast for 2015 from growth of 1.2 per cent to a drop of 0.8 per cent. Disposable income is expected to decline by 2.8 per cent against the previously expected 0.4 per cent growth.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-will-hit-recession-in-2015-because-of-oil-and-ukraine-kremlin-admits-1.2857186
Not that it matters to Vlad.
QuoteUkrainian and pro-Russian rebels have agreed to a new ceasefire in part of eastern Ukraine, set to begin on Friday, international observers say.
The deal only affects forces facing each other in the Luhansk region.
Separate ceasefire talks are under way in Ukraine's neighbouring Donetsk region. Heavy fighting has raged at the Donetsk airport in the past three days.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30290690
Good luck with that!
http://www.vox.com/2014/12/1/7313443/vladimir-putin-merkel
QuoteThe incident of Vladimir Putin , Angela Merkel, and the dog is a famous one. It was 2007 and Merkel, Germany's Chancellor, was visiting Putin at his presidential residence in Sochi to discuss energy trade. Putin, surely aware of Merkel's well-known fear of dogs, waited until the press gathered in the room, then called for his black Labrador to be sent in. The Russian president watched in unconcealed glee as the dog sniffed at Merkel, who sat frozen in fear.
Later, in discussing the incident with a group of reporters, Merkel attempted an explanation of Putin's behavior. Her quote, reported in George Packer's recent profile of Merkel in the New Yorker, is one of the most pithily succinct insights into Putin and the psychology of his 14-year reign that I have read:
"I understand why he has to do this — to prove he's a man," Merkel said. "He's afraid of his own weakness. Russia has nothing, no successful politics or economy. All they have is this."
Merkel is not the first person to suggest that Putin's machismo — everything from his harassment of fellow heads of state to his shirtless photos to his invasion of Ukraine — are shows of strength meant to mask feelings of weakness. But she has put her finger on this phenomenon with remarkable bluntness.
Merkel, who grew up in Soviet-dominated East Germany, who learned Russian in school and traveled throughout the Soviet Union, has an especially close relationship with Putin (this incident notwithstanding) and unusual insight into how Putin's Russia works. Among Western leaders, her relationship with Putin is almost certainly the closest and most important. Yet all this closeness has apparently made her respect Putin less, not more.
Putin first took power in 2000, but the nature of his rule changed in 2012, when he won reelection amid public protests and accusations of fraud. Those protests, along with the collapse of Russia's economy from growth-powerhouse to the edge of recession, have left Putin feeling obviously and correctly insecure about his hold on power. At the same time, in the wake of the cold war Russian leaders and regular citizens have felt increasingly insecure in the America-dominated world. They have a sense that Russia is under siege from without and has been robbed of its rightful status as a world power.
Putin, in shielding his personal insecurity as a weak leader, has also tapped into the larger sense of Russian insecurity. That is part of why his demonstrations of masculinity — though they appear ridiculous to outsiders like Merkel — so resonate among Russians. Like Putin, many Russians see demonstrations of defiance and strength as reassurances against the crushing sense of weakness.
More importantly, Merkel is correct to observe that Putin and Russia are so ready to embrace this superficial machismo because they just don't have much else to hold on to. It is universally true, in all countries, that economic decline leads to feelings of national insecurity — just look at how often Americans talk about "American decline" since the financial crisis — as well as to more extreme politics, as in much of Europe. But Americans and Western Europeans at least have recourse at the ballot box; they can angrily vote in or out whoever they like.
Russians do not enjoy the luxury of democracy. So Putin, hoping to channel Russians' feelings of national despair away from rage at their own government, have directed them instead toward feelings of fear and hostility at the West, and toward the useful outlet of macho nationalism.
This has been a huge success for Putin in the short term, but it has mired him in a hostile foreign policy that led him to invade Ukraine, attracting severe Western sanctions that have only further weakened Russia. It is also dangerous, entering the nuclear-armed and legitimately formidable Russian military into a war in Europe. But at least Merkel, who is in many ways the pivot point between Russia and the West, understands what she is up against.
Great insight. Thanks Brant!
Oh boy...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/vladimir-putin-state-of-the-union-defends-aggression-in-ukraine-1.2859993
Quote
In an annual speech ranging from economy to school tests, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday evoked religious imagery and defended the Kremlin's aggressive foreign policy as necessary for his country's sheer survival.
Sounds like they'll be playing Battleship Potemkin on CommieTV soon...or murdering a schoolbus full of kids and blaming it on the West.
Thats ok. Weve got lots of frisbees from Dreamland.
I LOL'd.
Ive worn out 3 paperback copies of that book. Red Storm and Hitchhikers are easily my most frequently reread books.
Two books I'll re-read anytime are Red Storm Rising and Starship Troopers.
It's heresy to admit it, but I've never read Hitchhiker's Guide. :-[
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 04, 2014, 01:39:40 PM
...
It's heresy to admit it, but I've never read Hitchhiker's Guide. :-[
ACK! :o :knuppel2:
No worties. Its not like you never saw Monty Python and the Holy Grail or something.
Barts one of thise scientists that made the hosts panties jump to the left.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 04, 2014, 01:49:17 PM
Barts one of thise scientists that made the hosts panties jump to the left.
As often as possible. :coolsmiley:
So I'm in Belgium on a trip right now and I went to Ypres to see the Last Post ceremony. The honor guard there last night was made up of a group of soldiers from a large number of NATO armies including Germans, Brits, Danes, Poles, Czechs, and others. And the emotional picture for me was the Brits and the Germans standing side-by-side during the ceremony. . Putin better watch out if the Europeans start supporting these people like they can.
Lenin, Stalin ,Putin.
The Trio is complete ! :(
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on December 04, 2014, 05:02:39 PM
So I'm in Belgium on a trip right now and I went to Ypres to see the Last Post ceremony. The honor guard there last night was made up of a group of soldiers from a large number of NATO armies including Germans, Brits, Danes, Poles, Czechs, and others. And the emotional picture for me was the Brits and the Germans standing side-by-side during the ceremony. . Putin better watch out if the Europeans start supporting these people like they can.
Cool experience.
Quote from: Micha on December 05, 2014, 03:37:37 AM
Lenin, Stalin ,Putin.
The Trio is complete ! :(
Troika!
;)
Quote from: Micha on December 05, 2014, 03:37:37 AM
Lenin, Stalin ,Putin.
The Trio is complete ! :(
Not that I have any use for Lenin or Stalin, but Putin doesn't belong in their company.
Kruschev managed to lead at Stalingrad, amongst other places. I'd place him in that company well before Putin. What has Putin accomplished? He pushed paper for the KGB. He's a petty, third-world bully. In 50 years no one will remember his name.
Quote from: LongBlade on December 05, 2014, 09:19:41 AM
In 50 years no one will remember his name.
I'm pretty sure this statement is spot-on. Putin is very much aware of this and his actions seem to reflect his megalomaniacal need to be seen as a great leader.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 05, 2014, 09:23:36 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on December 05, 2014, 09:19:41 AM
In 50 years no one will remember his name.
I'm pretty sure this statement is spot-on. Putin is very much aware of this and his actions seem to reflect his megalomaniacal need to be seen as a Dear leader.
fixed
I of course meant "deer" leader, which I think is a show on The (No Longer)History Channel now.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 05, 2014, 09:23:36 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on December 05, 2014, 09:19:41 AM
In 50 years no one will remember his name.
I'm pretty sure this statement is spot-on. Putin is very much aware of this and his actions seem to reflect his megalomaniacal need to be seen as a great leader.
That could be troublesome in itself.
Even if he doesn't keep following through on his Russian version of Lebensraum, he's still doing his best to bring Cold War style military confrontation back to the fore.
And he has an arsenal of nukes. It doesn't matter is he's in Lenin's or Stalin's league.
just because Russia has them doesnt mean he can use them.
Doesn't mean he can't either. With his ongoing track record do you want to risk it?
Quote from: Gusington on December 05, 2014, 03:46:17 PM
Doesn't mean he can't either. With his ongoing track record do you want to risk it?
I don't think he wants to risk it. We have the toys to shoot down many of his ICBMs. He doesn't.
It's either MAD or he gets toasted. Either way, he loses.
The fault with your logic is that you're using it.
its been brought up before and I think theres some validity to the idea that Russias mobsters wont let him go nuclear.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 05, 2014, 07:50:07 PM
its been brought up before and I think theres some validity to the idea that Russias mobsters wont let him go nuclear.
You make a valid point. Vlad the Puny may want to go down in flames, but they won't.
When we have to rely on the Russian mafia for MAD, I shed an extra tear.
dont best against self interest when vast amounts of money is on the line.
Second only to "Never start a land war in Asia".
...DOH!
Quote from: JasonPratt on December 08, 2014, 05:13:53 PM
Second only to "Never start a land war in Asia".
...DOH!
I always wondered, what about joining one already started by someone else?
I think the original was "Never get involved in a land war in Asia."
So yep, that's covered. :coolsmiley:
Hey, Mr. Putin! How's that invasion working out for ya?
QuoteRussia appeared headed Tuesday into a full-fledged currency crisis after the central bank imposed a massive, middle-of-the-night interest rate hike but failed to halt the plummet of the ruble.
The tactics have revived memories of Russia's 1998 financial meltdown when the nation defaulted on debts and a generation's savings was wiped out because of hyperinflation.
Russia has more crisis-fighting resources today, but the central bank decision also carried perilous risks for the broader economy.
So far this year, the ruble has lost more than half its value against the U.S. dollar, a decline closely linked to the falling price of oil — Russia's main export — and Western sanctions imposed because of Russia's actions in the conflict in Ukraine.
source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/to-halt-crisis-russia-central-bank-hikes-interest-rates-as-ruble-falls/2014/12/16/9ebb1610-4c9e-45bd-9297-475b0d3878cc_story.html?wpisrc=nl-headlines&wpmm=1
Not that there are any other comparisons between Putin and Hitler ::), but I can't help but think (and I am a little bit afraid) that Putin's next ploy will be to turn the nation against a group that he will blame for all of the nation's woes.
Quote from: Centurion40 on December 16, 2014, 08:48:42 AM
Not that there are any other comparisons between Putin and Hitler ::), but I can't help but think (and I am a little bit afraid) that Putin's next ploy will be to turn the nation against a group that he will blame for all of the nation's woes.
He's
been doing that. It's all the West's fault, haven't you heard? ::)
I smell Weimar.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 16, 2014, 09:00:42 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on December 16, 2014, 08:48:42 AM
Not that there are any other comparisons between Putin and Hitler ::), but I can't help but think (and I am a little bit afraid) that Putin's next ploy will be to turn the nation against a group that he will blame for all of the nation's woes.
He's been doing that. It's all the West's fault, haven't you heard? ::)
Yes. I'm expecting a Whoppernacht; one night when all of the Burger Kings, McDonald's, Starbucks, etc. get smashed to shit and Americans (and people suspected of being Americans) get the shit kicked out of them. A few gays too, just for good measure.
So with the total collapse of the ruble in the last few days what do you guys Putin will say in his speech on Thursday?
^ Blame everybody but himself.
"It is abundantly clear to Russians across our Motherland that the greatest threat to Russia, impeding her rise to glory and killing her from the inside, are the Russian mafia families.
"Therefore, starting today, Russia declares war on the Mafia." Vladmir Putin, Time's new Man of the Year Every Year From Now On Possibly Posthumously
I say go for the heroic morality blaze of glory suicide route, Vlad. Dice roll says: (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgrogheads.com%2Fforums%2FThemes%2Fdefault%2Fimages%2Fdice_warn.gif&hash=09b04beb3d0b7357d8a221f953a58436bc798bbc) This dice roll has been tampered with!
natural 20 ... SOON WE SHALL BE VICTORY!! ;D
Quote from: Kushan on December 16, 2014, 03:25:56 PM
So with the total collapse of the ruble in the last few days what do you guys Putin will say in his speech on Thursday?
I didn't realize he was giving a speech.
Hmmm. I wonder what the Vegas odds are on a putsch?
QuotePutin might be playing chess while we play checkers, but only if we lend him the money for the set.
source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg3.wikia.nocookie.net%2F__cb20121205194057%2Fsimpsons%2Fimages%2Fe%2Fe9%2FNelson_Ha-Ha.jpg&hash=e1e61d925aa8dec5133ea126195b535109980e69)
I hope his blaze of glory doesn't include a disregard for MAD and a launch of Russia's entire nuclear arsenal.
I think we bought it all during the 90's.
Quote from: Gusington on December 16, 2014, 07:06:53 PM
I hope his blaze of glory doesn't include a disregard for MAD and a launch of Russia's entire nuclear arsenal.
Really depends on how much him and his friends value their own hides. I don't see their hold on power being significantly threatened from within. Putins done a good job at throwing his critics into prison or exile.
This interview is not encouraging. The conclusion is at the very end of the video. It sounds like Russia may think it has no choice but to be more aggressive.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/16/opinion/ghitis-putin-ruble/index.html?hpt=hp_t3
I gotta wonder if there's a plan afoot in Russia to off this idiot.
its Russia. theres always a plan to remove the leadership.
I imagine most of the Russian Parliament is just as idiotic.
about all I can see him doing in going for a full up invasion of the Ukraine and hoping for a short victorious war. which it wont be.
His out is ridiculously obvious my grognard friends. He simply takes some major oil supply infrastructure out of the equation. Whose gets taken out and where are questions I haven't looked at. How?... easy peasy... *cough* some terrorist cell gets in and blows the shit up.
A few key pieces of oil supply infrastructure gone off the chess board because of terrorist activity and Voila! oil price rebound.
the Saudis and OPEC told him to fuck off already so that could be interesting.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 17, 2014, 09:55:55 AM
its Russia. theres always a plan to remove the leadership.
At the same time... It's Russia. One of the countries where a totalitarian dictator is worshipped as a hero and gets little internal criticism when he changes the laws to make sure he & his cronies run the place for life, with an iron fist.
Such self-blinding nationalism would be foreign to most of us. If the prez even began to pull the same shit, there would be a huge uproar and a reckoning. Putin's habits have been shockingly reminiscent of Hitler's pre-war actions and it's ironic that he's using the same 'fell from superpower grace' nationalist butt-hurt feelings with Russians that worked so well with 1930s German citizens. From imprisoning or killing the few brave enough to cry a warning at home, all the way down to excuses of liberating their own nationalist minorities in foreign countries as a reason for military involvement & annexation.
History often repeats itself, huh?
Damn right. There are many articles and discussions on comparing Russia's 2014 with a previous year in German history, but or me it is feeling a lot like what I expect 1936 to have felt like. It's like Putin is taking Hitler's Mein Kampf as his gospel.
Just to inject this little bit - my boss's boss stated that the reason for the price plummet in oil was because the Saudis were seeing how our (the U.S.) oil production was starting to become a major player in the world market, so they decided to flood the market with oil.
I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but he knows a lot more about our world operations than I do.
So is Ukraine the Rhineland of 2014?
^ A good comparison, but this time, the invaders are going to get a bloody nose and then slink back to their bases with their tails between their legs.
At least I hope that's what happens should they choose that route.
I can't imagine this playing out any other way than the Russian Mafia offing Putin. Shades of Kennedy, should you believe the Mob had anything to do with that.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 18, 2014, 08:29:46 AM
Just to inject this little bit - my boss's boss stated that the reason for the price plummet in oil was because the Saudis were seeing how our (the U.S.) oil production was starting to become a major player in the world market, so they decided to flood the market with oil.
I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but he knows a lot more about our world operations than I do.
I've heard similar. I would defer to someone who knows about oil extraction and methods, but how hard is it to extract oil in the Middle East vs finding other methods like shale gas (fracking) etc? Just a theory - maybe all this just lowers the interest in fracking (and other methods), and makes more expensive (expensive if you lower the cost of oil). One competitor trying to make their product more viable?
or maybe there have been some backroom dealings between the US and OPEC as part of the sanctions against Russia. Im not into conspiracy theories but Im sure there are more levels to this then we get to know about.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 18, 2014, 08:29:46 AM
Just to inject this little bit - my boss's boss stated that the reason for the price plummet in oil was because the Saudis were seeing how our (the U.S.) oil production was starting to become a major player in the world market, so they decided to flood the market with oil.
I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but he knows a lot more about our world operations than I do.
I have heard that, too.
It's a kind of twofer. US oil production has a higher cost basis because our shale oil is costlier to drill for and refine. However, I've heard that once the drilling has started it's probably not going to stop.
Regardless, the US consumer suddenly has a lot more cash in their pocket. It's a big win for us economically.
Ukraine could be kinda sorta Rhinelandish. The real meat of the matter is how much like Chamberlain the West will be.
Quote from: LongBlade on December 18, 2014, 10:40:26 AM
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 18, 2014, 08:29:46 AM
Just to inject this little bit - my boss's boss stated that the reason for the price plummet in oil was because the Saudis were seeing how our (the U.S.) oil production was starting to become a major player in the world market, so they decided to flood the market with oil.
I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but he knows a lot more about our world operations than I do.
I have heard that, too.
It's a kind of twofer. US oil production has a higher cost basis because our shale oil is costlier to drill for and refine. However, I've heard that once the drilling has started it's probably not going to stop.
Regardless, the US consumer suddenly has a lot more cash in their pocket. It's a big win for us economically.
I've read the same.
It'll assuredly bounce back up so may as well enjoy the fruits of market competition.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 18, 2014, 09:13:15 AM
So is Ukraine the Rhineland of 2014?
More like 1938 Czechoslovakia, with the breakaway eastern areas it's Sudetenland. IIRC, the Nazis infiltrated lots of agitators over the border into the Sudetenland where they posed as local ethnic German Czechs and started stirring up the locals and claiming repression by the Prague gov't.
^I'd say that 2014 Ukraine is more violent, though.
then you forget our shared history.
Quote from: endfire79 on December 18, 2014, 10:08:02 AM
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on December 18, 2014, 08:29:46 AM
Just to inject this little bit - my boss's boss stated that the reason for the price plummet in oil was because the Saudis were seeing how our (the U.S.) oil production was starting to become a major player in the world market, so they decided to flood the market with oil.
I'm not sure how much truth there is to that, but he knows a lot more about our world operations than I do.
I've heard similar. I would defer to someone who knows about oil extraction and methods, but how hard is it to extract oil in the Middle East vs finding other methods like shale gas (fracking) etc? Just a theory - maybe all this just lowers the interest in fracking (and other methods), and makes more expensive (expensive if you lower the cost of oil). One competitor trying to make their product more viable?
Sorry for the long post I can go back and edit it later for brevity if needed
I am not an expert here but my father is and now that he is retired he spends a lot of time giving me an earful on this. His role was petroleum engineer and he was responsible for discovering and extracting oil from the US continental shelf, Libyan, Nigerian, North Sea, Egypt, Israel and Australia (found gas which no one wanted in the 80s) and Saudi.
To sum up his thoughts the Us Shale oil is a mirage the wells are slow flowing wells (that is wells that produce a modest amount then taper off quickly). The only reason they are viable is because they sit on un-populated land so the logistics of drilling hundreds of wells in a fairly compact area are not too bad (roads etc can be built for a fraction of the cost of deep sea rigs etc). The major oil players are almost all universally out of shale oil (they are called the 7 sisters dont know why but these are the major oil players). What you have left are a lot of significantly smaller operations that do not have deep pockets and are dependent on cash flow. This is something that those who speculate in shale oil dont really talk about which is the universal lack of appetite for the larger established oil companies for this type of drilling, there is too much risk and speculation on the economic feasibility of really extracting the millions of barrels of oil that these companies claim to be able to. By their nature these are fractured formations with radically different geologies in short transverse distances. Translation its a mess down there.
Most people have the impression that oil is like a giant lake underground. the reality is that it is more like a sponge that has been soaked in oil and other fluids (salt, mud etc). When you start squeezing it by breaking open the rocks and pushing in more water you push the oils out. The more uniform the rocks the better the oil you can extract the more efficient your rig and fields and the more money you make. Also like a sponge once you stop squeezing and relax its very hard to go back and get that remaining fluid out at a later date.
The Saudi fields are the largest most uniform ones out there that have ever been found in 80 years of heavy oil exploration. They also have 80 years of pumping infrastructure added on top of these fields. What it means is they for efficiency and recovery they can dial this in very precisely with little need for capital intensive expenditures. It also helps that Saudi oil is one of the sweetest crudes and has little in the way of sulfur and other contaminants that ruin piping/wells and require significant more complicated distilation/cracking in the refininf plants.
So now we have both the US and the Saudis on opposite spectrums of extracting oil. The Saudis are playing a dangerous game to try and break the US small suppliers by driving price down by increasing supply and thus driving them out of business. However the US oil industry is not monolithic like OPEC and is heavily hedged meaning that oil futures were sold out for 6 months to a year to protect against downward oil pricing shocks (though I suspect few thought it would get as bad as this). That means the Saudis will have to keep production high for at least another 6 moths to a year before it really bites for the US firms. Even then it is better for these guys to lose money slowly because they have contractual obligations for the land and the bids they put down on the mineral rights. Their only other option is to declare bankruptcy where other companies (maybe the bigger ones) will come in and buy those assets as reserves to put on their books. A trick of the trade for market capitalization of oil companies is that they can claim the assets on the oil even if they have no intention of drilling and extracting it. It becomes even murkier when they use unproven techniques to claim the assets are larger or economically attractive (but that's a topic for another day on how large oil companies play extra dirty with government money and your investments).
Bottom line the last time the Saudis tried to drive oil down using OPEC it was in 85 and as you can see in the chart below the real price of oil/barrel took until 2005 to recover (20 years). This strategy of increasing supply might spectacularly back fire on the OPEC countries and as we have seen when you take long term stability (cash flow) away from them it typically does not end well for their governments. Can the US producers weather a storm this large is also uncertain but we will be in much better shape if we continue to diversify away from oil into other energy formats and continue to push on auto efficiency (MPG).
Con
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wtrg.com%2Foil_graphs%2Frecessi.gif&hash=5234a323ac4ad06d942992d1c1dd49c9d8a6ce39)
Interesting food for thought Con. Thanks for letting us in on your dad's experienced take on things.
The graphic seems to be link-locked though.
Weird I can see it fine
Here is the article with plenty of additional source material
http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
Con
http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/recessi.gif
I tried going directly to the gif this way (instead of as an {img} command) and got the following error:
QuoteNot Found
The requested URL /nohotlinking.jpe was not found on this server.
Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.
???
This one from the same page however works fine. Dunno why.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wtrg.com%2Foil_graphs%2Foilprice1947.gif&hash=077575ac70ab463fa0b067ac4353b1bd0161daa3)
well, this will
certainly calm things down... ::)
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-parliament-takes-historic-step-toward-nato-102848451.html
QuoteUkraine took a historic step toward NATO on Tuesday in a parliamentary vote certain to stoke Russia's anger ahead of talks on ending the ex-Soviet state's separatist war.
Lawmakers in the government-controlled chamber overwhelmingly adopted a bill dropping Ukraine's non-aligned status -- a classification given to states such as Switzerland which refuse to join military alliances and thus play no part in wars.
President Petro Poroshenko had vowed to put Ukraine under Western military protection after winning an election called in the wake of the February ouster in Kiev of a Moscow-backed president.
"Ukraine's fight for its independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty has turned into a decisive factor in our relations with the world," Poroshenko told foreign embassadors in Kiev on Monday night.
Ukraine assumed neutrality under strong Russian pressure in 2010. It had sought NATO membership in the early post-Soviet era but -- its once-mighty army in ruins and riven by corruption -- was never viewed as a serious candidate.
Last winter's revolution in Kiev upset Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans to enlist Ukraine in a new, Kremlin-led bloc that could rival both NATO and the European Union.
And Moscow had set Kiev's exclusion from all military blocs as a condition for any deal on ending the pro-Russian uprising that has killed 4,700 in the eastern Ukrainian rustbelt in the past eight months.
Putin's view of NATO as modern Russia's biggest threat has only been reinforced by this year's dramatic spike in East-West tensions over Ukraine.
"In essence, an application for NATO membership will turn Ukraine into a potential military opponent for Russia," Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned in a Facebook post Monday.
He said that Ukraine's rejection of neutrality and a new Russian sanctions law that US President Barack Obama signed on Friday "will both have very negative consequences."
"And our country will have to respond to them," Medvedev added.
I dont think Russia will be able to afford doing anything:
Opec oil output will not be cut even if price hits $20:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30585538
I saw gas under $2 yesterday at a couple of places so I said fuck it and put in a full tank of premium. :D
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2014, 06:50:14 AM
I saw gas under $2 yesterday at a couple of places so I said fuck it and put in a full tank of premium. :D
Yeah, we are below $2 here.
Quote from: LongBlade on December 23, 2014, 07:51:54 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on December 23, 2014, 06:50:14 AM
I saw gas under $2 yesterday at a couple of places so I said fuck it and put in a full tank of premium. :D
Yeah, we are below $2 here.
Gas here was $1.97 a gallon at 10:00 a.m. this morning and $1.94 at 4:00 p.m. this afternoon (Tuesday, 23 December).
I hope we will get our gas soon as possible from USA via tankership. I would pay the double if i would know ist not from russia.
By the way the only solution i see for this the ukraine crisis is ukraine sells krim and eastern ukraine to russia.
Micha, where are you located?
I"m from Germany.
Dont get me wrong, i hate Putin and what he has done.
But the big Problem is the People in eastern ukraine and Krim dont want to go back to Ukraine.
For me not to understand, no human with a clear mind wants to be part of a Diktatur.
But ok, Russians loved it to be ruled by Stalin, the monuments still Standing and they want to rename
a City to Stalingrad.
What i would do :
Selling the Krim and Eastern ukraine to Russia , for a good Price.
In Exchange a russian garanty not to conquer more ( even though such a promise is not worth a lot, look at Hitler,
Putin is the same size.
And the permission from russia ukraine can join to Nato.
Maybe i"m wrong , but thats the only way i see.
Quote from: Micha on December 29, 2014, 12:15:38 PM
I"m from Germany.
Dont get me wrong, i hate Putin and what he has done.
But the big Problem is the People in eastern ukraine and Krim dont want to go back to Ukraine.
For me not to understand, no human with a clear mind wants to be part of a Diktatur.
But ok, Russians loved it to be ruled by Stalin, the monuments still Standing and they want to rename
a City to Stalingrad.
What i would do :
Selling the Krim and Eastern ukraine to Russia , for a good Price.
In Exchange a russian garanty not to conquer more ( even though such a promise is not worth a lot, look at Hitler,
Putin is the same size.
And the permission from russia ukraine can join to Nato.
Maybe i"m wrong , but thats the only way i see.
Yeah, that sounds like the wise move.
Quote from: Centurion40 on January 07, 2015, 08:41:49 AM
Quote from: Micha on December 29, 2014, 12:15:38 PM
I"m from Germany.
Dont get me wrong, i hate Putin and what he has done.
But the big Problem is the People in eastern ukraine and Krim dont want to go back to Ukraine.
For me not to understand, no human with a clear mind wants to be part of a Diktatur.
But ok, Russians loved it to be ruled by Stalin, the monuments still Standing and they want to rename
a City to Stalingrad.
What i would do :
Selling the Krim and Eastern ukraine to Russia , for a good Price.
In Exchange a russian garanty not to conquer more ( even though such a promise is not worth a lot, look at Hitler,
Putin is the same size.
And the permission from russia ukraine can join to Nato.
Maybe i"m wrong , but thats the only way i see.
Yeah, that sounds like the wise move.
If that's what those people want then it's a good bargain, though frankly I'd try (emphasis on try) to leverage them out of Crimea.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0KI1US20150109?irpc=932 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0KI1US20150109?irpc=932)
In (shorter) short: Gorby is worried that if West Germany decides to stand up to Russia, this will lead to a conventional war, and then unavoidably to a nuclear war. So stop meddling in things that aren't your business, Germany.
...was Germany getting involved that much so far?? ??? I mean, it's been a few weeks since I kept up with things, but my impression was that they were being specially careful, due to an awareness of being a dangerous trigger in their situation, while still taking a principle stand.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on January 15, 2015, 11:44:26 AM
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0KI1US20150109?irpc=932 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN0KI1US20150109?irpc=932)
Quote"The new Germany wants to intervene everywhere," he said in the interview. "In Germany evidently there are a lot of people who want to help create a new division in Europe."
Germany wants to intervene everywhere??!! WTF??!! Is Gorby suffering from dementia?
IIRC Gorbachev is not well liked at home in Russia. Maybe he is trying to win back a following?
Yeah I don't think hes relevant anymore
Quote from: Gusington on January 15, 2015, 01:24:56 PM
IIRC Gorbachev is not well liked at home in Russia. Maybe he is trying to win back a following?
I'm pretty sure that article is for domestic consumption. He knows the West knows better.
The Russians likely dont give a damn about him. My bet is he is being used to present the Russian position, from someone who the Germans may like for historical reasons. His failure is that their position is presented, as ususal, as a threat, (pressure) which westerners react very negatively to. Russians like coersion, we dont.
This may have been pointed out in this thread already, but I saw a clip from one of the debates from the last presidential election. Obama was chastising Romney for saying that Russia was our biggest threat. Hmmm. Looks like R may have been more right than O was. Hey O, you said the 80's wanted it's foreign policy back. Looks like we may need to keep it.
The Ukrainians are putting out a series of prints for the troops and homefronts. Very reminiscent of the Vargas girls of World War II.
This one is "Fatal Appointment"
^LB posted those a few pages back I think. I guess it's becoming a very real war now that the propaganda printers have begun working again. NY Times is saying that around 10k Russian regulars are now in Ukraine with more crossing the border.
There are probably a lot more who have been laying low among civilians until needed for some kind of blindside maneuver to come.
Russian sleeper cells?
It worked in Crimea didn't it?
Unfortunately.
That is the real terror threat to NATO countries, if anyone tries to stop them taking at least half of Ukraine. Forget the sand people. Nobody can turn off the tap of Russian forces, and they know it. They will keep going until Ukraine is bankrupt.
and realistically, how much longer can Russia keep spending?
Longer than Ukraine can. Unless it gets real help.
It appears pretty clear that no country in the West is going to come to the aid of Ukraine. And to be honest I am not so sure if that's a bad thing. I empathize with the Ukrainians but this is their fight. One could argue it is Ukraine today, and Estonia or some other outpost tomorrow. And even then I don't know if it would be our fight yet. When Russians cross into Poland...then, maybe, it will be our collective fight.
This does expose NATO as a paper tiger, though. And that's what Russia wants. In some ways this is like the Cold War, except that Russia is starting from a position of increased weakness when compared to, say, 1980. The Soviet Union was a global power while in reality Russia in 2015 is just a strong regional power.
I don't know...after interventions around the world for 100 years, where has it gotten the US and the UK? Are we any better off as nations than we were before WWI? Maybe it's time to stop the insanity and go isolationist for a little while. The thing with that idea is that every time we nudge even slightly closer to isolation, the world barges in again.
Just thinking out loud here.
how does it expose NATO as a paper tiger when the Ukraine isnt a NATO member nor in the historic sphere of influence of Western Europe?
Ukraine is a test, like Crimea. Russia sees that the West is busy elsewhere. How quick would we close ranks if Estonia was threatened? Seriously now. Which NATO member would be first to defend Estonia? Especially with a POTUS who has drawn lines in the sand before, and retreated behind them. Unless there was something truly vital at stake I can't see NATO going to war over Estonia, even with Estonia as a member. It would become quite an embarrassing situation and that is exactly what Russia is trying to get from this whole mess.
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2015, 02:53:51 PM
I can't see NATO going to war over Estonia, even with Estonia as a member. It would become quite an embarrassing situation and that is exactly what Russia is trying to get from this whole mess.
IMO If a NATO member, Estonia or any other, is attacked and invokes the musketeer article. We have no choice. That is, provided we want to keep the alliance together.
I agree, and that's kind of my point...how strong is the collective will to keep the alliance together?
Seems to have been fairly strong with Afghanistan so i think Estonia is covered.
Afghanistan isn't even a country for all intents and purposes.
Thanks for underlining my point.
Taking on Russia would not be the same as chasing down the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2015, 03:17:25 PM
I agree, and that's kind of my point...how strong is the collective will to keep the alliance together?
I've been asking myself that question.
So far NATO assets have been deployed in the Baltics and it was done without internal fuss.... Well, not too much anyway.
I hope that signifies a will to, at least, stand behind a NATO member.
I Want to believe that.
I do.
NATO doesnt have to make a fuss.
Russia gas to make a fuss.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2015, 03:55:51 PM
I do.
NATO doesnt have to make a fuss.
Russia gas to make a fuss.
:2funny:
And basically, that's all they have.
Is that pun intentional or not?
Actually, no it wasnt... was supposed to be "has to".
I think maintaining the integrity of NATO is actually something people on both sides of the Atlantic are willing to fight for in this newly scary world. Meaning Estonia would be on the table as a flashpoint for WWIII.
I would like to agree with you Airborne, but I'm not sure. I think the Europeans are waking up to the threats of just not Russia, but radial Islam, especially after the Paris attacks. What I really fear, is that the US will not stand strong with the rest of NATO.
^I would like to scream 'that's crazy talk' but I don't know how crazy it really is.
He might turn and say "No brothers are in danger, what's your problem!"
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2015, 08:33:05 PM
^I would like to scream 'that's crazy talk' but I don't know how crazy it really is.
My old screen name was Nuts!
A thought just occurred to me. If Putin wants all of Ukraine, then NATO doesn't have to oppose him openly. They could just support an insurgency that could bleed Russia dry both in troops and money, especially if the sanctions stay in place and Putin cannot get around them.
proxy wars of the Cold War part 2.
now in 24 hour streaming HD.
European NATO has spent the last thirteen years in Afghanistan proving that they at least are committed to the Alliance.
thats what I said!
But I used more words.
Putin will want to complete his goals in Ukraine this year, then begin setting the stage for the Baltics, if he really wants any or all of them, for after the 2016 election. If an Obama clone is elected, then I think he can take them at a time of his choosing. If anyone to the right of Obama then he will want to grab them after the election and before the new president can take office
If he grabs during the election, especially a close one, then Obama will act, with the support the Dem candidate, to show Dems are strong on foreign affairs and to try and get votes.
there is ZERO chance of an obama clone being elected.
even if its Hillary we'll see a very different foreign policy.
The US owes the rest of Nato some backup. The only time Article 5 (paraphrase: "An attack on one is an attack on all") has ever been implemented is after 9-11. NATO aircraft help secure US airspace for weeks, racking up over 4000 hours of flight time, until the US felt secure enough to cut the Nato crews loose. After that a number of Nato countries went into Afghanistan to support the US effort there, with Nato eventually even assuming overall command. Many of these countries took a big hit to their defence budgets just to support the alliance with very little recognition by the American public or elected officials (red and blue) as thanks.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on January 25, 2015, 06:57:00 PM
I think maintaining the integrity of NATO is actually something people on both sides of the Atlantic are willing to fight for in this newly scary world. Meaning Estonia would be on the table as a flashpoint for WWIII.
I'm not really up to speed on what's going on over there, but from my perspective it seems like most of Russia's actions these days have been motivated by domestic issues. The Ukrainian conflict is giving them a distraction from a rapidly collapsing economy, and before the economy collapsed it was to give them something to think about besides a kleptocracy.
I agree NATO seems to be reawakening.
I sincerely doubt Russia will attempt to directly confront NATO. Russia knows it will lose and Putin has too much to lose if the news gets bad, as it inevitably would.
No, Putin will whittle away at the periphery of NATO in places where it knows it has the advantage and can tout the victories in the news.
NATO is solid.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2015, 09:44:57 PM
there is ZERO chance of an obama clone being elected.
even if its Hillary we'll see a very different foreign policy.
True. Hillary is not Obama. Regardless of anything else folks might think of her, I think she likes a good fight. Putin should take notice, or not at his own peril.
I just dont see a Russian army getting through a Polish/German/US force.
and I dont see the Russian army resisting one on the attack either.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2015, 09:52:15 PM
NATO is solid.
Meh. I'm not so sure.
They can get solid, and are certainly in better shape than the Russians.
Even worse is the political leadership, though as I said, the tide seems to be turning.
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2015, 02:53:51 PM
Ukraine is a test, like Crimea. Russia sees that the West is busy elsewhere. How quick would we close ranks if Estonia was threatened? Seriously now. Which NATO member would be first to defend Estonia? Especially with a POTUS who has drawn lines in the sand before, and retreated behind them. Unless there was something truly vital at stake I can't see NATO going to war over Estonia, even with Estonia as a member. It would become quite an embarrassing situation and that is exactly what Russia is trying to get from this whole mess.
Canadian hornets have been patrolling the Baltic states for weeks. UK planes as well iirc.
If it comes, I bet we will all step forward. NATO will hold together no problem.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on January 25, 2015, 09:54:42 PM
I just dont see a Russian army getting through a Polish/German/US force.
and I dont see the Russian army resisting one on the attack either.
I think we're sorta saying the same thing.
I don't think NATO is prepared for much of a large scale conflict, but even on a bad day NATO will wipe the mat with Russia.
NATO is running exercises and ops all of the time. we've been in active combat for over a decade in a region that way the hell away from Europe.
for something on the doorstep... yeah. its good.
I hope you guys are right, and I think you are, about the US standing strong with NATO If it doesn't, then no one will trust us again for a long time. And that would mean the end of Taiwan and South Korea, as both the Chinese and Norks would not fear the US getting involved in those conflicts.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fusarmy.vo.llnwd.net%2Fe2%2Fc%2Fimages%2F2014%2F09%2F06%2F361642%2Fsize0.jpg&hash=52ae69b2922480dc5bd84dff12b754a3b1446dd3)
^It's a trap!
Afghanistan tested the will of NATO in ways it has never been tested before. Can we call what happened in Afghanistan a victory? I don't know. A war with Russia would be tougher. I know that the West has the technological edge in every area but still...Russia is not Afghanistan and Eastern Europe is Russia's traditional sphere of influence.
Should we even be mucking around there in the first place?
It depends on if the taking of Ukraine will be seen by other regimes as a first domino, with the next step being those that do not take, will be behind.
Spheres of influence are less important than border integrity. If Russia wants to influence, they could pick more productive ways.
Quote from: OJsDad on January 25, 2015, 07:10:49 PM
I would like to agree with you Airborne, but I'm not sure. I think the Europeans are waking up to the threats of just not Russia, but radial Islam, especially after the Paris attacks. What I really fear, is that the US will not stand strong with the rest of NATO.
So it could be in Russian interests to stir-up Islamic inspired insurrection in Western Europe.
But what about Chechnya?
And to the integrity of the borders...the Ukrainian border with Russia was virtually obliterated by artillery months ago.
Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2015, 09:20:03 AM
But what about Chechnya?
And to the integrity of the borders...the Ukrainian border with Russia was virtually obliterated by artillery months ago.
Yeah, it's all FUBAR, or nearly FUBAR.
I'd like to know what Putin's end goal actually is. Does he need a new nationalist "Soviet" Empire? Does he need a new Warsaw Pact as a buffer against the fear of Germany? Knowing all of this would really help me form an opinion as to what to do.
My current thinking remains: "let the Russkies have Eastern Ukraine, then draw a line. Let Putie know that Western Ukraine and the Baltic state have the right to self-determination, allies will be defended by the full might of the alliance. Then start constructing permanent NATO training bases in Poland & Lithuania."
The Russians should be a natural ally in any conflict with Islamic imperialism.
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2015, 10:43:33 PMCan we call what happened in Afghanistan a victory?
I don't know - did we ever define a mission against which we can compare our relative level of success?
Quote from: Gusington on January 26, 2015, 09:20:03 AMBut what about Chechnya?
Chechnya was a gangster state maquerading as 'freedom fighters' because the Chechens were smart enough to know that the world media would love any narrative that cast the Russians as "bad guys"
They were a kleptocracyt hat put on religious robes for the public while smuggling drugs, weapons, and people all over the place, and successfully holding off a Russian army that didn't want to be there, and were probably thinking "wait a minute - these guys are corrupy money-hungry quasi-legal boozehounds, and that's
bad?"
The worst part about Chechnya was that the KLA learned the 'right' lessons on how to succeed against a someone who is already being cast in the public light as a bad person and extend that narrative to your own advantage. We stayed out of Chechnya and the Russians (mostly) cleaned it up. We got involved in Kosovo and successfully instilled a criminal gang to run a new country because the people were/should have been running it had been complete and utter assholes on 2 other fronts (Croatia / Bosnia) for the 7 years leading up to it.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 26, 2015, 09:49:58 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2015, 10:43:33 PMCan we call what happened in Afghanistan a victory?
I don't know - did we ever define a mission against which we can compare our relative level of success?
No, we didn't. And retreating on a time schedule set up for the enemies' convenience snatched whatever defeat we wanted to avoid from the jaws of whatever "victory" we may have accomplished.
Quote from: LongBlade on January 26, 2015, 12:02:52 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 26, 2015, 09:49:58 AM
Quote from: Gusington on January 25, 2015, 10:43:33 PMCan we call what happened in Afghanistan a victory?
I don't know - did we ever define a mission against which we can compare our relative level of success?
No, we didn't. And retreating on a time schedule set up for the enemies' convenience snatched whatever defeat we wanted to avoid from the jaws of whatever "victory" we may have accomplished.
http://grognews.blogspot.com/2011/03/mission-in-afghanistan.html
The question of victory in Afghanistan seems moot to me in the current discussion. What is relevant is that NATO members stuck with the mission for more than a decade. Just as an example, the Dutch maintained a third of their army over there for close to ten years!
From the U.S. side, we're prepositioning equipment in in the Baltics (and now Norway, again) and rotating units through there to train. I think our commitment is strong as well.
On a different subject, and I know that this may not be popular, the Russians actually have legitimate interests in Ukraine, however thuggishly and inappropriately they are going about pursuing them. 70 years ago parts of Russia had just been liberated from armies sent from the rest of Europe who had killed 20 MILLION Russians. Now, the Russians weren't saints themselves, but you can imagine the impact on their national psyche, especially because it had just happened first 25 years previously. And they have been saying since the end of the Cold War that they wouldn't tolerate the advance of NATO to their borders, meaning Ukraine and Belarus, so the current conflict shouldn't come as a real surprise once Ukraine started getting too cozy with the west for moscow's liking. Again, not justifying, just explaining their perspective.
And on another note, there have been people In this discussion who have suggested the Ukraine deport rebels/ethnic Russians from eastern Ukraine as part of a solution to the conflict. If the Russians did that I imagine there would be a lot of accusations of ethnic cleansing, etc. Don't forget that Ukraine is fertile ground for Russian meddling because they are such a disfunctional, corrupt state themselves, one that is so disfunctional that It has a significant population of people who are willing to fight and die to break away from it.
Better to understand your enemy and his motivations then to simply dismiss them.
There is a very valid scenario that one can discuss for the voluminous Russian meddling in the near abroad, from their perspective.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on January 26, 2015, 01:04:35 PM
The question of victory in Afghanistan seems moot to me in the current discussion. What is relevant is that NATO members stuck with the mission for more than a decade. Just as an example, the Dutch maintained a third of their army over there for close to ten years!
From the U.S. side, we're prepositioning equipment in in the Baltics (and now Norway, again) and rotating units through there to train. I think our commitment is strong as well.
On a different subject, and I know that this may not be popular, the Russians actually have legitimate interests in Ukraine, however thuggishly and inappropriately they are going about pursuing them. 70 years ago parts of Russia had just been liberated from armies sent from the rest of Europe who had killed 20 MILLION Russians. Now, the Russians weren't saints themselves, but you can imagine the impact on their national psyche, especially because it had just happened first 25 years previously. And they have been saying since the end of the Cold War that they wouldn't tolerate the advance of NATO to their borders, meaning Ukraine and Belarus, so the current conflict shouldn't come as a real surprise once Ukraine started getting too cozy with the west for moscow's liking. Again, not justifying, just explaining their perspective.
And on another note, there have been people In this discussion who have suggested the Ukraine deport rebels/ethnic Russians from eastern Ukraine as part of a solution to the conflict. If the Russians did that I imagine there would be a lot of accusations of ethnic cleansing, etc. Don't forget that Ukraine is fertile ground for Russian meddling because they are such a disfunctional, corrupt state themselves, one that is so disfunctional that It has a significant population of people who are willing to fight and die to break away from it.
Better to understand your enemy and his motivations then to simply dismiss them.
They could have offered to purchase the region with gas delivered to the rest of the country. They chose to try to take it by force.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on January 26, 2015, 01:17:24 PM
They could have offered to purchase the region with gas delivered to the rest of the country.
How do you suppose that would have gone over in Kiev? Before all this started, I mean.
Flat out NO. In the current situation, maybe.
from the archvies (2008) but still has a lot of applicability
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=33872&no_cache=1
QuoteAs anticipated (see EDM, July 11, August 4) Moscow has initiated an offensive military operation by proxy against Georgia in South Ossetia. Although the blow had been expected in upper Abkhazia and may yet materialize there, Russia shifted the direction of attack to the South Ossetian front.
The brazen attacks during the night of August 7 to 8 in South Ossetia left Tbilisi with no choice but to respond. Continuing Georgian restraint would have resulted in irreparable human, territorial, and political losses. Moscow's military and propaganda operation bears the hallmarks of its blitzkriegs in Transnistria in 1992 and Abkhazia in 1993. Georgia's defensive response in South Ossetia since August 8 is legally within the country's rights under international law and militarily commensurate with the attacks.
Russia usually stages military incidents in Georgia in August, while European officials take their vacations. This year, however, the operations are systematic, lengthier, and considerably higher on the ladder of escalation than in previous years. After concentrating supplementary forces in Abkhazia during the spring and expanding its military infrastructure there in early summer, Moscow switched on the escalation process in South Ossetia.
On July 3 an assassination attempt targeted Dmitry Sanakoyev, head of the Tbilisi-backed interim administration of South Ossetia, which controls at least one third of the region's territory. The blast injured Sanakoyev's bodyguards. On July 9 Moscow demonstratively acknowledged that four Russian Air Force planes had flown a mission over South Ossetia. That action sought to deter Georgia from flying unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), thus blinding Tbilisi to Russian and proxy military movements in the area. A series of roadside bomb blasts targeted Georgian police patrols. During the second half of July and the first days of August, Russian-commanded Ossetian troops under the authority of Russian-led South Ossetian authorities fired repeatedly at Georgian-controlled villages, forcing Georgian police to fire back defensively.
Meanwhile, Russia's state-controlled media orchestrated a war scare, accusing Georgia of intentions to attack. In the North Caucasus and Russia proper, Cossack chieftains on government payroll threatened to send "volunteers" to fight against Georgia. The North Ossetian authorities, apparently aware of Moscow's plans, showed nervousness at the prospect of becoming embroiled in a major military operation by proxy to their south.
The goals behind Moscow's operation are threefold, each with its own time frame. The immediate goal is to re-establish the authority of Russian-controlled negotiating and "peacekeeping" formats. By firing on Georgian positions unremittingly and escalating the intensity of the fire with every passing day, Moscow hopes to force Georgia to turn to those Russian-controlled formats to relieve the pressure. Furthermore, Moscow wants to force Tbilisi to acknowledge a leading Russian role as "guarantor" of an eventual political settlement.
Moscow's next goal, on a timeframe overlapping with the first, is to capture Georgian-controlled villages in South Ossetia. The pattern of attacks since August 6 indicate the intent to reduce the Sanakoyev administration's territory to insignificance or even remove it from South Ossetia altogether. If successful, this undertaking may well be replicated in upper Abkhazia by Russian and proxy forces attempting to evict authorities loyal to Tbilisi.
The strategic political goal is to dissuade NATO from approving a membership action plan (MAP) for Georgia at the alliance's December 2008 or April 2009 meetings. More immediately, Moscow seeks to derail the North Atlantic Council's assessment visit to Georgia, scheduled for September, or at least to influence the visit's assessment about Georgia's eligibility for a MAP. Since NATO's "Russia-Firsters" insist that unresolved conflicts disqualify Georgia from a MAP, Russia seeks to demonstrate that those conflicts are indeed unresolved. NATO's failure to approve a Georgian MAP at the April 2008 summit emboldened Russia to escalate military operations against Georgia.
Moscow also seeks to bleed Georgia economically through protracted military operations. Russia can not tolerate the successful economic performance of a Western-oriented government on Russia's border. Aware, furthermore, that Georgia's government is accountable to public opinion, Moscow seeks to force the government to choose between yielding at the risk of a domestic backlash or, alternatively, fighting back in a costly confrontation
Resemblances with the Russian interventions in the early 1990s in Transnistria and Abkhazia are unmistakable. In that scenario, the Russian media create a hysterical, brink-of-war atmosphere, portraying the small country targeted for attack as a dangerous aggressor. Russian-armed proxy troops, already in place on the target country's territory, attack localities and seats of authority. Cossacks and North Caucasus "volunteers" are sent in. Russian officials can claim that the attackers act on their own, outside Moscow's control. Russian military intelligence coordinates the operation, while air and ground forces provide cover and would intervene directly if the target country defends itself. In the final stage of this scenario, Russian "peacekeepers" perpetuate the gains achieved on the ground. Throughout the crisis, most Western governments are confused and react irrelevantly by urging restraint on "both sides," ultimately tolerating the Russian faits accomplis.
That scenario started unfolding in South Ossetia in late July. By August 6 and 7, heavily armed proxy troops opened fire on Georgian villages, while the secessionist authorities refused to talk with Tbilisi. The attacking forces began destroying the transmission antennae of Georgian mobile telephone systems. Arms and paramilitary groups poured in from Russia to South Ossetia through the Russian-controlled Roki tunnel. Russian officials in Georgia claimed that the attacking forces were out of Russia's control. Officials in Moscow, meanwhile, justified the attacks directly and indirectly by accusing Georgia of aggression (Interfax, Itar-Tass, Russian Television, August 4-7).
At 7:00 P.M. local time on August 7, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili spoke live on national television, announcing a unilateral ceasefire and asking the other side also to cease hostilities. In highly conciliatory words, Saakashvili called for talks "in any format"; reaffirmed the long-standing offer of full autonomy for South Ossetia; proposed that Russia should guarantee that solution; offered a general amnesty; and pleaded for international intercession to stop the hostilities (Rustavi-2 TV, August 7).
Following Saakashvili's address, attacks on Georgian villages intensified. The village of Avnevi was almost completely destroyed, Tamarasheni and Prisi shelled, and the police station in Kurta, seat of the Sanakoyev administration, smashed by artillery fire. Civilians began fleeing the villages.
These attacks forced Tbilisi to take defensive action. By 10:30 P.M. local time on August 7 the Georgians returned fire. During the night, Georgian forces including armored columns began advancing toward Tskhinvali, the secessionist authorities' administrative center. These Georgian actions have halted the repetition of a 1992-1993 type scenario in 2008.
Does the US still have POMCUS sites in Europe, or did those get abandoned at the end of the Cold War.
can't find any good current info on them, but only had about 90s to look around online before work started pulling at me again
edit: here's an article from 2011 at GlobalSecurity that lists a handful of sites, but not what's in them
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/srsae.htm
Weren't most of them raided for the gear that went to Iraq?
The S&P lowered Russia's credit rating to "junk" status a couple of days ago.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-26/russia-credit-rating-cut-to-junk-by-s-p-for-first-time-in-decade
I heard on the CBC news that the cost of groceries and mortgages have almost doubled in Russia over the past year. :o
If I was Russian, I'd be pissed and I'd blame the national leadership.
^^ Not that it would do you the slightest bit of good. ;)
But seriously, that level of social despair explains A LOT of the horrible things people put up with (and even cooperatively help foster) from their leaders and governments in countries all over the world throughout history, including today.
Quote from: Centurion40 on January 29, 2015, 12:53:52 PMIf I was Russian, I'd be pissed and I'd blame the national leadership.
If you were Russian, you'd be pissed and blaming "the west" just like all other Russians since the 1740s.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 29, 2015, 01:33:34 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on January 29, 2015, 12:53:52 PMIf I was Russian, I'd be pissed and I'd blame the national leadership.
If you were Russian, you'd be pissed and blaming "the west" just like all other Russians since the 1740s.
Ah, 1739. What a great year!
In Russia, mortgage devours you after 30 years.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on January 26, 2015, 01:04:35 PM
On a different subject, and I know that this may not be popular, the Russians actually have legitimate interests in Ukraine, however thuggishly and inappropriately they are going about pursuing them. 70 years ago parts of Russia had just been liberated from armies sent from the rest of Europe who had killed 20 MILLION Russians. Now, the Russians weren't saints themselves, but you can imagine the impact on their national psyche, especially because it had just happened first 25 years previously. And they have been saying since the end of the Cold War that they wouldn't tolerate the advance of NATO to their borders, meaning Ukraine and Belarus, so the current conflict shouldn't come as a real surprise once Ukraine started getting too cozy with the west for moscow's liking. Again, not justifying, just explaining their perspective.
And on another note, there have been people In this discussion who have suggested the Ukraine deport rebels/ethnic Russians from eastern Ukraine as part of a solution to the conflict. If the Russians did that I imagine there would be a lot of accusations of ethnic cleansing, etc. Don't forget that Ukraine is fertile ground for Russian meddling because they are such a disfunctional, corrupt state themselves, one that is so disfunctional that It has a significant population of people who are willing to fight and die to break away from it.
Better to understand your enemy and his motivations then to simply dismiss them.
Having legitimate interests does not justify sending tanks. They do not have a say what sovereign states do as far as the joining NATO or not.
If Russia were not aggressive maybe there would be no need to for NATO, but as it is it is no surprise they all want to join.
Russia needs a serious punch in the face, and the sooner the better. It is unfortunate that the only person who seems to have any balls in the White House is named Michelle.
And lets no play into this "we were attacked and lost 20 Million" crap. Soviet Union is just as responsible for starting the war as Nazi Germany, and the only reason there were as many Soviet killed is because Stalin was anxious to capture as much of Europe as possible before Germany collapsed, thus chucking masses of troops with inadequate support at the Germans. It would have been better for everyone concerned if the Soviets stayed behind Urals. All those trucks sent to the Soviets would have been better serving on the Western Front, when there was a shortage, preventing the Allies to advance on whole front, due to lack of transport of supplies.
Disagree. They needed the soviets back then. It was a deal with the devil and it sucked for eastern Europe but otherwise I think that war would have dragged on longer.
As for now, putin is full of bs and riding on it. He will hit a brick wall if he threatens nato treaty states. If not, then not good for NATO s reputation.
NATO reinforcements in Eatern Europe
http://news.yahoo.com/nato-units-set-baltics-poland-romania-bulgaria-121819032.html
QuoteNATO will deploy small units in six Eastern European nations to help coordinate a spearhead force set up in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine, the alliance's secretary-general said Friday.
Jens Stoltenberg said the units in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania will be the first of their kind there.
Defense ministers from the 28-nation military alliance will discuss the full force, which can react quickly to any hotspots in Europe, when they meet on Feb. 5.
Stoltenberg said countries responsible for providing the several thousand troops to the force should be known next week.
The forward units will comprise a few dozen personnel only. They will plan and organize military exercises, and provide command and control for any reinforcements the force might require.
"They're going to plan, they're going to organize exercises, to provide ... some key command elements for reinforcements," Stoltenberg said.
France, meanwhile, is pledging tanks and armored vehicles to bolster NATO forces in Poland, where leaders are increasingly uneasy about Russia.
The French military equipment is expected to remain in Poland for two months.
As tensions increased in 2014, NATO forces conducted about 200 military exercises, and Stoltenberg vowed this would continue as the alliance adapts to the increased presence of Russian warplanes in European skies. NATO intercepted Russian aircraft more than 400 times last year.
Stoltenberg also warned that Russia has continued to build up its military, as European NATO allies cut budgets again last year.
"It is not possible to get more out of less indefinitely. That is the reason why we have to stop the cuts and gradually start to increase defense spending as our economies grow," he said.
"Despite the economic crisis, despite the financial problems they are facing, Russia now is still giving priority to defense spending."
Maybe I can pick up a nice dacha on the Black Sea cheap after the Russians get done screwing themselves again.
Quote"It is not possible to get more out of less indefinitely. That is the reason why we have to stop the cuts and gradually start to increase defense spending as our economies grow," he said.
Unfortunately, NATO economies are not growing either.
There's a pretty significant difference between "not growing" and the emerging train wreck that Putin is creating.
Quote from: panzerde on January 30, 2015, 09:25:31 PM
There's a pretty significant difference between "not growing" and the emerging train wreck that Putin is creating.
Emerging? He's managed to devalue his currency to 1:1 for a Weimar Reichsmark.
^Over 40% at last count.
Supposedly Russia has enough of a currency hoard to survive another two years or so before either the price of oil goes up sharply or sanctions are lifted and the Russian Gov't can borrow on the world market. Absent either (or both) of those occurring it will need to cut services by a lot. The Babushkas will know what comes next...
Quote from: LongBlade on January 30, 2015, 09:57:17 PM
Emerging? He's managed to devalue his currency to 1:1 for a Weimar Reichsmark.
Emerging only in the sense that I think he's still at the front end of how bad this is going to get for them. I think he, combined with falling oil prices, are going to trash the Russian economy a lot worse than it already is.
Damn shame the Germans don't have any spare Russian ex-pat revolutionaries laying around they can stick on a train headed east.
Maybe those goatees are already in Moscow, checking their texts and biding their time.
Quote from: panzerde on January 30, 2015, 10:09:06 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on January 30, 2015, 09:57:17 PM
Emerging? He's managed to devalue his currency to 1:1 for a Weimar Reichsmark.
Emerging only in the sense that I think he's still at the front end of how bad this is going to get for them. I think he, combined with falling oil prices, are going to trash the Russian economy a lot worse than it already is.
I was just kidding. Indeed it will get worse. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
QuoteDamn shame the Germans don't have any spare Russian ex-pat revolutionaries laying around they can stick on a train headed east.
I'm with Stagger. There might be a few over there. Problem is our current fearless leader seems more afraid of domestic political cooperation than external threats.
Quote from: OJsDad on January 30, 2015, 09:20:35 PM
Quote"It is not possible to get more out of less indefinitely. That is the reason why we have to stop the cuts and gradually start to increase defense spending as our economies grow," he said.
Unfortunately, NATO economies are not growing either.
shit... most NATO countries weren't even spending what they were obligated to by treaty before the financial crisis.
So clearly NATO means well but without the money and hardware to back up their guarantees...how will this work?
The situation isn't nearly as bad as it seems. Russia has about 1 million people under arms, and has to worry about not just NATO but also Islamic extremists and breakaway regions in the south and keeping an eye on China in the Far East (despite the new coziness between those two). Currently, NATO has about 5 million people under arms and only one major threat - Russia.
of those 1-million / 5-million, what's the actual foxhole strength?
additionally, of the US/UK/FR/etc totals, how many have permanent commitments they're already supporting? South Korea, Mali, Falklands, etc
collectively they have the money and hardware. if they had been spending the mandated 2% of Government revenue they would be in a lot better shape.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 31, 2015, 09:45:01 AM
of those 1-million / 5-million, what's the actual foxhole strength?
additionally, of the US/UK/FR/etc totals, how many have permanent commitments they're already supporting? South Korea, Mali, Falklands, etc
If it wasnt for the nukes, russia would be fucked in a couple of weeks if they ever got into a conflict with NATO.
On paper it might seem like an impressive army but in reality its pisspoor lead and equipped. Most of the tanks are obsolete T72 and of those at least 1/3 Arent even operational. Same for the airforce, where the pilots hardly gets any flying time, last figures I saw was 200 hours/year on average.
Same for the fleet where most of the ships are junks, since they dont have fuel to sail, Money to maintenance or even personel to sail.
Quote from: Gusington on January 31, 2015, 08:46:01 AM
So clearly NATO means well but without the money and hardware to back up their guarantees...how will this work?
Like any war, they'll muddle along.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on January 31, 2015, 09:45:01 AM
of those 1-million / 5-million, what's the actual foxhole strength?
additionally, of the US/UK/FR/etc totals, how many have permanent commitments they're already supporting? South Korea, Mali, Falklands, etc
I would guess the relative tooth/tail ratio of NATO/Russia is pretty comparable, as is the proportion of their military available for deployments. Like jejo68 said, it's their nukes that give them flexibility, but those also may prevent any major conflict from starting in the first place. Thank god for the atom bomb and all that...
Id say NATO forces have a longer tail but a nastier bite.
Napoleon and Hitler also thought that Russia had an obsolete, pathetic military. That is not to say that NATO couldn't handle a war with Russia now, but I don't think it would be as one-sided.
Quote from: Gusington on January 31, 2015, 11:49:22 PM
Napoleon and Hitler also thought that Russia had an obsolete, pathetic military. That is not to say that NATO couldn't handle a war with Russia now, but I don't think it would be as one-sided.
Depends. If our goal is to keep them off of NATO held territory then we're in pretty good shape. If we want to take Moscow? Not so sure.
NATO has no reason to take Moscow and Europe is a reverse Kursk writ large for Russia.
Quote from: Gusington on January 31, 2015, 11:49:22 PM
Napoleon and Hitler also thought that Russia had an obsolete, pathetic military. That is not to say that NATO couldn't handle a war with Russia now, but I don't think it would be as one-sided.
Nato troops are better equipped to handle the long russian Winter today, and unlike the two previous smerfs it wont come as a surprise for us. Besides havent you heard about global Warming, we might not even have to fight any Winter wars :)
^"Climate change." Or whatever they call it today. And it hasn't made the Russian steppes tropical, just warmer. And by warmer it could be -20 degrees F instead of -40 degrees F.
But I definitely hear what LB is saying. I would hope we wouldn't want to try to take Moscow or St. Petersburg.
All that said, it's not like the Russians are the French. They have a solid albeit brutal military history over the last 75 years, with victories stolen from the jaws of what were almost total defeats. They are wiley. They are cunning. And I don't trust them any further than I could throw a T-80.
Yes they are not as technically advanced as the West. But the West is not operating in the same brutal way that the Russians are.
It is a mistake to think that a direct fight with Russia over Ukraine or any other location in Eastern Europe would be a cake walk. Tech can work wonders but it can only take you so far.
The Russians don't have anything resembling the West's power projection and offensive power. But their defense in depth, even if it's at a medieval level when compared to ours, would be a challenge to say the least. Underestimating them would be a mistake.
Quote from: Gusington on February 01, 2015, 11:05:51 AM
The Russians don't have anything resembling the West's power projection and offensive power. But their defense in depth, even if it's at a medieval level when compared to ours, would be a challenge to say the least. Underestimating them would be a mistake.
Which is why, if at all possible, we should avoid fighting them and employ the Reagan Doctrine and just bankrupt the bastards instead. By all means if we have to fight them go all in, but it makes more sense to me to teach them the basics of economics one more time.
I agree. It gets tiresome how history repeats sometimes.
Gus, you're right. Tactically and operationally we shouldn't underestimate them. The Russians make tough soldiers and the kit they use I think is much better than we give them credit for, especially if it's in competent hands. But the fact is that strategically they just can't project power effectively any more. Of course from the nuclear strategic perspective, they're ahead of everyone...
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 01, 2015, 12:20:01 AM
NATO has no reason to take Moscow and Europe is a reverse Kursk writ large for Russia.
That's twice in 48 hours I agree with you. The End Times draw near.
^Totally agree there. I even said that above that we don't have to worry about them going on a major offensive because their force projection is just not near the level of NATO's!
But if we take the initiative and try to remove them from Ukraine or Crimea (we = NATO) I think it would be much tougher. One more quagmire like other Western wars over the last 50 years, this time [refreshingly?] not in South Asia or against a Muslim enemy. But a quagmire either way.
The last thing the West would want are urban battles like the ones fought in Chechnya against the Russians. They would be bloody and brutal. And that doesn't take into account the question of "why" would we be fighting these battles. Do we even have a casus belli over there? Right now it's Ukraine's fight, as ugly as it is.
Quote from: panzerde on February 01, 2015, 11:32:22 AM
Which is why, if at all possible, we should avoid fighting them and employ the Reagan Doctrine and just bankrupt the bastards instead.
We're too busy bankrupting ourselves. There's nothing left in the till to spend further.
Quote from: panzerde on February 01, 2015, 11:32:22 AMBy all means if we have to fight them go all in, but it makes more sense to me to teach them the basics of economics one more time.
As LB replied, we're too busy bankrupting ourselves; that might not work again.
The West has been very good at voodoo economics, but those are not economic fundamentals. We're the economic analog of a Russian getting roaring drunk on vodka in order to fight better, and then morosely nursing a hangover by drinking more vodka at an increasing rate, occasionally using the excuse of another fight to slam enough vodka to end the hangover for a while. Eventually the two vodka limits (the usual and the emergency) overlap and then, barf.
Is now the barf?
Not yet. We're still chugging vodka.
I really thought the barf was coming last year, or the year before, but here we are at new highs on the NYSE.
(Not that I want to see the barf; it could be cataclysmic.)
In related news, Obama sent a record 4 trillion dollar budget to Congress today. How are we going to pay for that? With barf.
The only essential difference between our nation and (let's say) Greece, in terms of economic strategy, is that we're still the world's reserve currency. So it doesn't matter much if we're deficiting faster than we can ever pay it back. Nor are we likely to ever not be the reserve currency (since we're the last remaining well-protected military superpower), unless we start defaulting on our notes.
Which could happen as a coordinated foreign strategy if certain nations (chiefly but not solely China) ever decided they'd be ahead by doing so.
It has to be a desperate situation when deficit has to be used as a verb :)
There is never an intent to pay it back. Everyone has decided future "growth" can take care of the debt relative to the size of the economy. Except the growth is an accounting sham. Bigger $ on paper mean nothing to the real world. If you double prices, GDP grows on paper. Nothing real has changed.
Everyone wants the costs to be the problem of future generations. It is like a generation of people burdened with fetal alcohol syndrome that are expected to compete globally. They end up wanting more drink.
Quote from: Gusington on February 01, 2015, 04:03:17 PM
^Totally agree there. I even said that above that we don't have to worry about them going on a major offensive because their force projection is just not near the level of NATO's!
But if we take the initiative and try to remove them from Ukraine or Crimea (we = NATO) I think it would be much tougher. One more quagmire like other Western wars over the last 50 years, this time [refreshingly?] not in South Asia or against a Muslim enemy. But a quagmire either way.
The last thing the West would want are urban battles like the ones fought in Chechnya against the Russians. They would be bloody and brutal. And that doesn't take into account the question of "why" would we be fighting these battles. Do we even have a casus belli over there? Right now it's Ukraine's fight, as ugly as it is.
Any war can be a quagmire if you let it. This is less likely as US would only need to support it with air power and let the Ukrainians do the leg work (for now). Casus belli is the Russian aggression on a sovereign state whose territorial integrity was guaranteed by the Budapest agreement.
I guess at the end of the day I am just not convinced that we have any business mucking around in what has been a Russian sphere for a long, long time.
What if they want to rejoin kaliningrad?
BBC news this morning had Ukraine calling up a general conscription. Without weapons they will probably fall soon. At least half the country will be taken.
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 10:44:37 AM
I guess at the end of the day I am just not convinced that we have any business mucking around in what has been a Russian sphere for a long, long time.
With all due respect, that sounds like an echo of how the world viewed the Sudetenland.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 03, 2015, 01:06:31 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 10:44:37 AM
I guess at the end of the day I am just not convinced that we have any business mucking around in what has been a Russian sphere for a long, long time.
With all due respect, that sounds like an echo of how the world viewed the Sudetenland.
Yes, I think Putin is out to test Obama. If he avoids, Russia will just take more before the fight starts. The only thing that will stop them is losing lots of equipment. Their men they will throw under the bus like they always have .
Quote from: Gusington on February 02, 2015, 02:26:49 PM
It has to be a desperate situation when deficit has to be used as a verb :)
Switch a few vowels around (in a nifty rabbinic fashion) and we're defecating faster than we can ever pay it back. >:D
Quote from: LongBlade on February 03, 2015, 01:06:31 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 10:44:37 AM
I guess at the end of the day I am just not convinced that we have any business mucking around in what has been a Russian sphere for a long, long time.
With all due respect, that sounds like an echo of how the world viewed the Sudetenland.
Arguably the world was quite correct to view it that way, compared to going to war over it. Which doesn't absolve Hitler and his crew from abusing and exploiting the situation.
Remember LB that the Sudeten crisis was in 1938, just as Nazi war crimes were getting started. IIRC that was also the same year that Hitler was Time's Man of the Year. If Hitler died that year he would probably be remembered like Bismarck...as a "great German" and not a monster.
That's where Putin is at right now in Russia...he's their great savior, consolidating the Russian population the world over. If you're Russian, living in Russia, with little to embrace as far as patriotism...I think it can be intoxicating.
What right did the UK or the US or France have in deciding the fate of Sudeten Germans? Or Austrians? Or Germans in the Saar basin? Or Germans anywhere? Would it not be the same as the UK or France intervening in the US Civil War? Unwelcome meddling?
The Russians do not belong in Ukraine. But NATO certainly does not belong there either. And I say that having Eastern European [and Ukrainian] ancestry and some sort of mental connection to the place.
I hope that I am not coming across as a Russophile or a Russian apologist because I am not either. I just believe that going to war over Ukraine (from the US perspective) would be a [potentially very costly] mistake.
Russia keeps pushing. Con posted a story in another thread about those asshats getting ready to demand a blunt-ton of money from Germany for WWII reparations.
They don't belong in Ukraine. If they keep pushing they should get pushed back. By Ukraine and Germany.
We shall see. The audacity of the Russian Parliament...my God.
They're thugs that are reaching for a re-imagined Soviet glory.
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 06:37:55 PM
Remember LB that the Sudeten crisis was in 1938, just as Nazi war crimes were getting started. IIRC that was also the same year that Hitler was Time's Man of the Year. If Hitler died that year he would probably be remembered like Bismarck...as a "great German" and not a monster.
That's where Putin is at right now in Russia...he's their great savior, consolidating the Russian population the world over. If you're Russian, living in Russia, with little to embrace as far as patriotism...I think it can be intoxicating.
What right did the UK or the US or France have in deciding the fate of Sudeten Germans? Or Austrians? Or Germans in the Saar basin? Or Germans anywhere? Would it not be the same as the UK or France intervening in the US Civil War? Unwelcome meddling?
The Russians do not belong in Ukraine. But NATO certainly does not belong there either. And I say that having Eastern European [and Ukrainian] ancestry and some sort of mental connection to the place.
I hope that I am not coming across as a Russophile or a Russian apologist because I am not either. I just believe that going to war over Ukraine (from the US perspective) would be a [potentially very costly] mistake.
As always, your post is well considered.
We still have to try to understand what they want. iirc Hitler told his generals after meeting the allies something along the lines "they are spineless". He was more beligerent after getting what he said he wanted than before. What is the human factor with putin? It doesn't have to be rational.
Good question. I don't know what he really wants. What it looks like is that he wants to reanimate the USSR.
So in game theory terms the decision point do not get involved in Ukraine does not have to result in do not get in a fight with Russia.
If the goal is restore the greatness of Rusia, it may in fact need a conflict. > fear of Russia = > greatness of russia(in their minds)
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 06:37:55 PM
Remember LB that the Sudeten crisis was in 1938, just as Nazi war crimes were getting started. IIRC that was also the same year that Hitler was Time's Man of the Year. If Hitler died that year he would probably be remembered like Bismarck...as a "great German" and not a monster.
That's where Putin is at right now in Russia...he's their great savior, consolidating the Russian population the world over. If you're Russian, living in Russia, with little to embrace as far as patriotism...I think it can be intoxicating.
What right did the UK or the US or France have in deciding the fate of Sudeten Germans? Or Austrians? Or Germans in the Saar basin? Or Germans anywhere? Would it not be the same as the UK or France intervening in the US Civil War? Unwelcome meddling?
The Russians do not belong in Ukraine. But NATO certainly does not belong there either. And I say that having Eastern European [and Ukrainian] ancestry and some sort of mental connection to the place.
I hope that I am not coming across as a Russophile or a Russian apologist because I am not either. I just believe that going to war over Ukraine (from the US perspective) would be a [potentially very costly] mistake.
Italy invaded Ethiopia in '35. Perhaps if the British/French had stood up to Italy then, especially after they used chemical weapons, the Sudetenland would not have come to pass.
^IMHO there was a racist mentality to foreign policy in that era that is an additional factor. Western leaders considered Ethiopia strictly of 2nd class importance [if that] when compared to the Sudetenland. I hesitate to drag racism and ethnicity into this, at it will only make things murkier and uglier, but there you have it.
Funny thing about history, you can often find a grudge created earlier. Didn't the Etheopians castrate some Italians prior? or was that somalis?
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 09:48:47 PM
^IMHO there was a racist mentality to foreign policy in that era that is an additional factor.
and that mentality is alive and well today. make no mistake about that.
On the other hand, many writers have pointed out how this battle was a humiliation for the Italian military. One student of Ethiopia, Donald N. Levine, points out that for the Italians Adwa "became a national trauma which demagogic leaders strove to avenge. It also played no little part in motivating Italy's revanchist adventure in 1935"
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Adwa (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Adwa)
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 09:48:47 PM
^IMHO there was a racist mentality to foreign policy in that era that is an additional factor. Western leaders considered Ethiopia strictly of 2nd class importance [if that] when compared to the Sudetenland. I hesitate to drag racism and ethnicity into this, at it will only make things murkier and uglier, but there you have it.
To your point, and now I wished I had posted it, there was an article on Yahoo yesterday that said the Russian seperatists in Ukraine were calling the leaders of Ukraine, "dirty Jews." The unfortunate thing that history has taught us is that mankind will lose the thin sheen of 'civilization," at the drop of a hat to drive home the differences between us.
and that's one of the reasons I'm in the LeMay camp with my comments. and I'm good with that.
sometimes theres just that frikin guy at the bar thats had to much to drink and gets stupid and he just needs to be punched in the fucking mouth.
seemed to work for Germany and Japan...
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 06:37:55 PM
What right did the UK or the US or France have in deciding the fate of Sudeten Germans? Or Austrians? Or Germans in the Saar basin? Or Germans anywhere? Would it not be the same as the UK or France intervening in the US Civil War? Unwelcome meddling?
The Russians do not belong in Ukraine. But NATO certainly does not belong there either. And I say that having Eastern European [and Ukrainian] ancestry and some sort of mental connection to the place.
I hope that I am not coming across as a Russophile or a Russian apologist because I am not either. I just believe that going to war over Ukraine (from the US perspective) would be a [potentially very costly] mistake.
Directly fighting Russia would be a mistake.
Sending arms to the Ukrainians, however, strikes me as a prudent move.
We'll have to agree to disagree. Especially if things like the Dirty Jew comment that MD posted are true. Beyond that I am sure that we'e been sending weapons and 'advisors' over there for the last year anyway.
Quote from: Gusington on February 04, 2015, 09:15:58 AM
We'll have to agree to disagree. Especially if things like the Dirty Jew comment that MD posted are true. Beyond that I am sure that we'e been sending weapons and 'advisors' over there for the last year anyway.
Fair enough. (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1081.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fj349%2Flongblade%2FSmilies%2Fshakehands.gif&hash=69f7233091873490f67903297d546022e94d19bc)
Did someone say boobs? (https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1081.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fj349%2Flongblade%2FSmilies%2Fpole.gif&hash=7a1cac3d7c04c3b8a7db4b9351994d079373dcb7)
BOOBS?
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2Fiwc46UbMcT1WE%2Fgiphy.gif&hash=13038278c5f56e59ccc6a9f5f52ba5e32e93eeda)
Sort of like the seagulls from Finding Nemo...Mine? Mine? Mine? Instead, Bewbs? Bewbs? Bewbs?
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 06:43:11 PM
They don't belong in Ukraine. If they keep pushing they should get pushed back. By Ukraine and Germany.
The problem is that Europe is notoriously bad at handling Continental disputes on it's own. That's a big reason why we have NATO and why the US still has troops stationed in Europe, 70 years after the Second World War. We've gone, left, and had to go back. Better to be there in the first place. We should have taken a little smaller payout on the 'peace dividend'.
Given the history, it's a lot to expect the Germans to handle the Ukraine situation on their own. The Russians would go apeshit, and would land a huge propaganda coup, if it were fighting Germans in the Ukraine, again. I doubt the Ukrainians really would welcome a mainly German force either.
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 09:48:47 PM
^IMHO there was a racist mentality to foreign policy in that era that is an additional factor. Western leaders considered Ethiopia strictly of 2nd class importance [if that] when compared to the Sudetenland. I hesitate to drag racism and ethnicity into this, at it will only make things murkier and uglier, but there you have it.
But, Ethiopia was a wake up call that the west chose to ignore. Putin/Russia have already taken a chunk of Georgia that the west chose to ignore. Then they barley woke up when they stole Crimea. When do you think enough is enough Gus.
If the West chose to ignore Ethiopia then it wasn't a wake up call. Enough is enough when Russians cross the Rhine, ironically.
Enough maybe enough when Russia crosses the Dnieper.
The Poles might not be too keen on the Russians reaching the Rhine.
Are they ever? ;D
If we're going to keep it real, I could care less about the Poles. They and the Russians are made for each ofher. I'll leave it at that.
A curious development...
QuoteA study from a Pentagon think tank theorizes that Russian President Vladimir Putin has Asperger's syndrome, "an autistic disorder which affects all of his decisions," according to the 2008 report obtained by USA TODAY.
Putin's "neurological development was significantly interrupted in infancy," wrote Brenda Connors, an expert in movement pattern analysis at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, R.I. Studies of his movement, Connors wrote, reveal "that the Russian President carries a neurological abnormality."
The 2008 study was one of many by Connors and her colleagues, who are contractors for the Office of Net Assessment (ONA), an internal Pentagon think tank that helps devise long-term military strategy. The 2008 report and a 2011 study were provided to USA TODAY as part of a Freedom of Information Act request.
source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/02/04/putin-aspergers-syndrome-study-pentagon/22855927/
Signs of Asperger's:
- naïve, inappropriate, one-sided social interactions
- limited ability to establish relationships
- poor non-verbal communication
- a lack of emotional empathy
- pedantic, repetitive speech
- intense absorption in certain subjects
- clumsy, un-coordinated movements
- odd postures
source: http://asperger-institute.com/characteristics/
I haven't studied Asperger's in any form. Anyone have any thoughts on this possible diagnosis?
I read that list and came up with "vodka". ;)
Quote from: LongBlade on February 04, 2015, 04:39:17 PM
A curious development...
QuoteA study from a Pentagon think tank theorizes that Russian President Vladimir Putin has Asperger's syndrome, "an autistic disorder which affects all of his decisions," according to the 2008 report obtained by USA TODAY.
Putin's "neurological development was significantly interrupted in infancy," wrote Brenda Connors, an expert in movement pattern analysis at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, R.I. Studies of his movement, Connors wrote, reveal "that the Russian President carries a neurological abnormality."
The 2008 study was one of many by Connors and her colleagues, who are contractors for the Office of Net Assessment (ONA), an internal Pentagon think tank that helps devise long-term military strategy. The 2008 report and a 2011 study were provided to USA TODAY as part of a Freedom of Information Act request.
source: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/02/04/putin-aspergers-syndrome-study-pentagon/22855927/
Signs of Asperger's:
- naïve, inappropriate, one-sided social interactions
- limited ability to establish relationships
- poor non-verbal communication
- a lack of emotional empathy
- pedantic, repetitive speech
- intense absorption in certain subjects
- clumsy, un-coordinated movements
- odd postures
source: http://asperger-institute.com/characteristics/
I haven't studied Asperger's in any form. Anyone have any thoughts on this possible diagnosis?
Take a look at this.
Asperger's syndrome ? I don't know.
How about a Napoleon complex + VAT ?
I'm not a psychologist, but I'm leaning towards: A little man, physically and mentally, who rose to power and now want to show the Russians (and the world) what a tough guy he is.
....Syndrome
Quote from: Atilla60 on February 04, 2015, 05:26:59 PM
Take a look at this.
Asperger's syndrome ? I don't know.
How about a Napoleon complex + VAT ?
I'm not a psychologist, but I'm leaning towards: A little man, physically and mentally, who rose to power and now want to show the Russians (and the world) what a tough guy he is.
....Syndrome
That definitely proves he has a small pee pee.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31137760 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31137760)
This article tonight seems to say the interpretation of this war will continue to get more ominous for NATO members.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 04, 2015, 08:19:20 PM
Quote from: Atilla60 on February 04, 2015, 05:26:59 PM
Take a look at this.
Asperger's syndrome ? I don't know.
How about a Napoleon complex + VAT ?
I'm not a psychologist, but I'm leaning towards: A little man, physically and mentally, who rose to power and now want to show the Russians (and the world) what a tough guy he is.
....Syndrome
That definitely proves he has a small pee pee.
He has issues that's for sure.
As fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/05/europe/ukraine-conflict/index.html
The way I see it Putin is relying on the fact Obama is a peace,law and order(his version) guy. He knows he can fight with no risk, because as soon as he wants to turn it off, Obama will jump at the peace offer. Another leader might retaliate in anger. So from the Russian position, they can manouver with full control. Economic pain for their citizens does not register.
While Obama may make the rest of the world feel secure he is completely losing against the guy that will not play by the rules. That will continue as long as military action is off the table.
obama most certainly dont not make the rest of the world feel secure.
Rumors say that the WH is about to flip on the lethal aid to Ukraine issue.
What do you all think? How long till the Ukies get their first Javelins courtesy of the Arsenal of Democracy?
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 05, 2015, 06:41:47 PM
Rumors say that the WH is about to flip on the lethal aid to Ukraine issue.
What do you all think? How long till the Ukies get their first Javelins courtesy of the Arsenal of Democracy?
I am all for it. They have the right to defend their country. If Russia gets pissed they are losing units, the solution is simple. Remove them from the Ukraine.
Since the USAF doesn't want them, maybe we can give them some A-10.
Maybe through in few MLRS's.
Maybe they could even use a few 'contractors' to fly those Hogs.
How could I forget, the Russians favorite, some Stinger missiles. Their helos really love those.
I was gonna say, someone ought to just remind them what assholes we can be when we start arming their guerrilla opponents.
And hope they don't point out the "what are you going to do when they turn on you?" future
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 05, 2015, 06:41:47 PM
Rumors say that the WH is about to flip on the lethal aid to Ukraine issue.
What do you all think? How long till the Ukies get their first Javelins courtesy of the Arsenal of Democracy?
Long overdue. The think that so far the Russians are not deploying the airforce as that would a dead give away at direct Russian involvement, as if the deployment of the hardware only Russian army has isn't already.
Quote from: Gusington on February 03, 2015, 06:37:55 PM
Remember LB that the Sudeten crisis was in 1938, just as Nazi war crimes were getting started. IIRC that was also the same year that Hitler was Time's Man of the Year. If Hitler died that year he would probably be remembered like Bismarck...as a "great German" and not a monster.
That's where Putin is at right now in Russia...he's their great savior, consolidating the Russian population the world over. If you're Russian, living in Russia, with little to embrace as far as patriotism...I think it can be intoxicating.
What right did the UK or the US or France have in deciding the fate of Sudeten Germans? Or Austrians? Or Germans in the Saar basin? Or Germans anywhere? Would it not be the same as the UK or France intervening in the US Civil War? Unwelcome meddling?
The Russians do not belong in Ukraine. But NATO certainly does not belong there either. And I say that having Eastern European [and Ukrainian] ancestry and some sort of mental connection to the place.
I hope that I am not coming across as a Russophile or a Russian apologist because I am not either. I just believe that going to war over Ukraine (from the US perspective) would be a [potentially very costly] mistake.
Short of a revolution in Russia that will sweep away this criminal Russian regime, I think we are unfortunately going towards direct clash with Russia.
The question now is: do you want Ukrainian resources and manpower on our side or whats left of it on the Russian side, when that time comes?
France and Britain paid dearly for letting Germany take Czechoslovakia in 1938-39. They created the whip for their own back in 1940 as Germany were able to equip 2 extra Panzer divisions with Czech tanks, which were better then most of the German stuff at the time. Just as the invasion of Kuwait, this must not stand.
I'm still not convinced that US intervention is justified. Western European intervention....yes. But not US. Not yet.
Quote from: pawelj on February 06, 2015, 08:25:50 AM
Short of a revolution in Russia that will sweep away this criminal Russian regime, I think we are unfortunately going towards direct clash with Russia.
I wrote this wrong. It should be: "Short of a revolution in Russia that will sweep away this criminal Russian regime, I think Russia is unfortunately going towards direct clash NATO".
I would bet that what we have been doing is creating enough mud (taking military off the table etc) to prevent Russia from dropping all pretense and actually just rolling their army across the border. This buys time which is a precious commodity in this conflict.
Meanwhile we have probably taken a cadre of about 500 of the best Ukrainian officers etc and have been giving them a crash course in US/West command and control (drones/satellites etc) and key equipment and tactics (javelins). Weapons sent without training and or a competent force to wield them are not going to help.
Back to time - Russia's window is closing both Militarily and Economically now you also have a good chance to make the prize of taking all of Ukrainian too expensive in Russian blood for Putin to endure and retain power (all without committing US or NATO troops). IMO the US and NATO is not going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine. There are too many bad reasons to do this and much better ones to get the Ukrainians to do the fighting themselves. Meanwhile Russia continues to get pummeled on all sides (but we need a way to keep the pressure from escalating into a conflict between nuclear armed forces). So essentially Ukraine gets screwed and there is a proxy war between west influenced and backed Ukraine and East Ukrainian supported by Russia.
Con
BTW out of interest has anyone who has been playing BlackSea feel differently about committing US forces into Ukraine? I was never for this course of action but (and I know it's a game however there is a large element of reality to it). Seeing as how bloody modern warfare is I am even more against putting troops there. In today's world you really have to be willing to pay an ocean of blood in an incredibly short time in a modern conflict. I would save this choice for bigger moments such as a Russian incursion/fight with a NATO country etc.
Con
Quote from: Con on February 06, 2015, 09:15:22 AM
I would bet that what we have been doing is creating enough mud (taking military off the table etc) to prevent Russia from dropping all pretense and actually just rolling their army across the border. This buys time which is a precious commodity in this conflict.
Meanwhile we have probably taken a cadre of about 500 of the best Ukrainian officers etc and have been giving them a crash course in US/West command and control (drones/satellites etc) and key equipment and tactics (javelins). Weapons sent without training and or a competent force to wield them are not going to help.
Back to time - Russia's window is closing both Militarily and Economically now you also have a good chance to make the prize of taking all of Ukrainian too expensive in Russian blood for Putin to endure and retain power (all without committing US or NATO troops). IMO the US and NATO is not going to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine. There are too many bad reasons to do this and much better ones to get the Ukrainians to do the fighting themselves. Meanwhile Russia continues to get pummeled on all sides (but we need a way to keep the pressure from escalating into a conflict between nuclear armed forces). So essentially Ukraine gets screwed and there is a proxy war between west influenced and backed Ukraine and East Ukrainian supported by Russia.
Con
You shouldn't think of it as just a conflict over Ukraine. It is a conflict against Russian aggression. Even if this is stopped for now with Russia keeping Crimea and Eastern Ukraine they will try for the rest later and then will go for the Baltics, but by then they will be stronger. And the problem will be bigger.
I dont see how they will be stronger. If anything they will be more tied up and having to spend huge amounts of dwindling cash and manpower trying to keep the Ukrainians down and I am sure we will be doing our best to keep pouring the gasoline on that fire.
Con
Quote from: Gusington on February 06, 2015, 08:59:23 AM
I'm still not convinced that US intervention is justified. Western European intervention....yes. But not US. Not yet.
Western Europe = NATO. NATO includes the US. Either we choose the place and the time or Russia does.
Have Switzerland send a force.
Quote from: Gusington on February 06, 2015, 08:59:23 AM
I'm still not convinced that US intervention is justified. Western European intervention....yes. But not US. Not yet.
That sounds like pull the US out of the treaty obligations. The US should only be involved when it chooses to be.
Is that what you want?
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 05, 2015, 06:48:49 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 05, 2015, 06:41:47 PM
Rumors say that the WH is about to flip on the lethal aid to Ukraine issue.
What do you all think? How long till the Ukies get their first Javelins courtesy of the Arsenal of Democracy?
I am all for it. They have the right to defend their country. If Russia gets pissed they are losing units, the solution is simple. Remove them from the Ukraine.
Yep. Fine and to the point. O0
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs3.reutersmedia.net%2Fresources%2Fr%2F%3Fm%3D02%26amp%3Bd%3D20150206%26amp%3Bt%3D2%26amp%3Bi%3D1023048707%26amp%3Bw%3D580%26amp%3Bfh%3D%26amp%3Bfw%3D%26amp%3Bll%3D%26amp%3Bpl%3D%26amp%3Br%3DLYNXMPEB1510P&hash=795ae5e6be85afbe8604b0248eed5411d00d9d59)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/06/us-ukraine-crisis-talks-end-idUSKBN0LA2F020150206 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/06/us-ukraine-crisis-talks-end-idUSKBN0LA2F020150206)
The image today says it all.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 05, 2015, 06:48:49 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 05, 2015, 06:41:47 PM
Rumors say that the WH is about to flip on the lethal aid to Ukraine issue.
What do you all think? How long till the Ukies get their first Javelins courtesy of the Arsenal of Democracy?
I am all for it. They have the right to defend their country. If Russia gets pissed they are losing units, the solution is simple. Remove them from the Ukraine.
I agree. I think it's about time and hope it isn't too late.
Biggs we have no treaties with Ukraine. Ukraine isn't in NATO. And shouldn't be. And yes I'm pretty comfortable with the US not getting dragged into a war it doesn't want. We have enough crap to deal with in the wars we thought we did want and a clueless government when it comes to foreign relations anyway.
Gus, I get your point. I really do.
However, we do have our international credibility to consider and sending the Ukrainians boots and missiles doesn't have to mean that there will be American feet in those boots or American eyeballs looking into the MANPAD sights. The Ukrainians need to uplift their military with better hardware and warfighting technique. That we can provide them. And if Western feet do need to be in Western boots bound for Ukraine, then honoring our NATO obligations doesn't mean we always have to send in our own sons to fight, just that we fully support those other NATO members who send in theirs.
Quote from: Gusington on February 06, 2015, 07:27:04 PM
Biggs we have no treaties with Ukraine. Ukraine isn't in NATO. And shouldn't be. And yes I'm pretty comfortable with the US not getting dragged into a war it doesn't want. We have enough crap to deal with in the wars we thought we did want and a clueless government when it comes to foreign relations anyway.
Sadly, speaking in the terms of war,. It's not entirely a question of: Do you want it?,. Sometimes war wants you.
That's just how it is, history has an abundance of proof of that.
Don't get me wrong Gus, I get what you say, and I can totally relate to your sentiment.
I don't want a war with Russia either, but IMO the best way to avoid it, is to play hard ball. Not militarily - as a first choice - but by any diplomatic mean that can be pulled.
Russia should have been isolated by now. Politically, financially and culturally. It's the only language a KGB
officer understands. It's sad, but there you have it.
I'd love to see how Putin would pull it off as the restorer of Russian glory, while standards of living comes crumbling down and Russia's soccer team is no longer invited to the major cups.
Leaving him with friends like the Chineese, Norks and Assad in Syria.
I believe that would make the Russians remove him from office without us - NATO - having to confront him militarily.
Edit:
But Russia isn't isolated, It seems to me we (the west) believe that singling out a couple of Oligarks will do the trick.
IMNSHO that approach will lead to a confrontation, because in Putin's world. it's a sign of weakness.
Hence, armed conflict is inevitable.
The more everyone avoids a limited conflict with Russia, the further west the resulting conflict will be. If they pay a heavy price for taking Ukraine, which I now think is inevitable, they will turn south to the Stans for their next conquest. Otherwise it will be rejoin Kaliningrad, retake Poland. Trash the rest, then take the Stans.
Going into Poland would be suicide for Putin, since they are already in NATO, and the gloves would come off.
I hear what you guys are saying above. I don't think anything is ever inevitable, though. Interference in Ukraine, by both Western nations and Russia over the last few years, is what got us into the current position. It's a rock and a hard place.
I'm not advocating total isolation. I'm advocating smart engagement. We need to stop shitting in other people's pools and not expecting the neighbors to get pissed.
Quote from: Gusington on February 06, 2015, 09:31:53 PM
Interference in Ukraine, by both Western nations and Russia over the last few years, is what got us into the current position.
Totally agree, but as of now it's of zero value. We should look forward, not backwards.
Quote from: Gusington on February 06, 2015, 09:31:53 PM
I'm not advocating total isolation.
I know, nothing in your postings here suggest that.
Quote from: Gusington on February 06, 2015, 09:31:53 PM
We need to stop shitting in other people's pools and not expecting the neighbors to get pissed.
Again, I couldn't agree more.
However, all of that is history at this point.
Today, as we speak, there's a dictator on the run. He has annexed parts of a independent sovereign, borders guaranteed by international laws, country.
So, question is. Do we accept that? Is that the normal in the 21st century?
As far as I'm concerned, It's not about Ukraine, It's about principles.
Ukraine's currency has collapsed, falling 50% in two days.
QuoteNow let's back up a minute. Why is Ukraine so doomed? Well, it's been mismanaged on a world-historical scale by oligarchs who, for decades, have skimmed billions off the country's nonexistent growth. That last part's not hyperbole. It seems almost impossible, but Ukraine's economy has actually shrunk since communism ended in 1991. Or since 1992. Or even 1993. And now its not-so-cold war with Russia is destroying the little that's left. It's not just that the rebel strongholds in the factory-heavy east have deprived Ukraine of a quarter of its industrial capacity. It's that it can't afford to fight against what's still it's biggest trading partner—Russia. Think about that. You don't usually trade a lot with the country you're going to battle against, but Ukraine's economy is so dependent on Russia's that it still trades more with it than any other. That means anything that hurts Russia, like lower oil prices or sanctions, just redounds onto Ukraine, and puts it in an even bigger financial hole.
Ukraine, in other words, doesn't have a lot of foreign currency, and doesn't have a lot of ways to earn more of it. Not when it didn't have much of an economy to begin with, it's fighting its biggest trading partner, and separatists have taken away its industrial heartland. The only questions are how big the bailout will be, and how far the hrvynia will fall in the meantime.
Ukraine's currency is weak, and that's not a game.
source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/02/06/ukraines-currency-has-fallen-50-percent-in-two-days/
Hello,
First at all, Putinis IS for me an evil Dictator even though the Russiand wants him like we Germans wanted hitler in the past.
Putin use the same tools to make People like him, Desinformation, lys and bad Propaganda.
For long time i was agree with the western position in the ucraine conflict. But during the last time i have more and more daubts.
Isn"t this this conflict not resembling to the Yugoslavia and Kosovo conflict ?
The problem is the People on the Krim and Eastern ukraine dont want to be part of the ukraine motherland, there is no daubt-
Same as in the Kosiovo conflict.
According to the OSZE the Ukraine Troops kills by full intend not only seperatists but also civillans like the serbs did in Kosovo.
Russia helps the Seperatists with Soldiers and Weapons like we did with Airstrikes in Kosovo.
But Russia made not any Sanktions against the West during that time.
By the way , if Amerika should deliver Weapons to the Ukraine we will have an endless Partisan war between the Seperatists
and the Ukraine.
And on the other Hand , the USSR did not resist when the Ukraine did split up from Russia , same for the Baltic states.
But the Ukraine failed to make friends with the russian minority.
Maybe its really the best to make a new refferendum under international control and give the the eastern ukraine and the Krim
the Status the mayority of People wants. Same for the russian speaking part of the Baltic stats. Everything else will lead in an
endless conflict.
But maybe i"m totally wrong, what do you think ?
Quote from: Gusington on February 06, 2015, 09:31:53 PM
Going into Poland would be suicide for Putin, since they are already in NATO, and the gloves would come off.
I hear what you guys are saying above. I don't think anything is ever inevitable, though. Interference in Ukraine, by both Western nations and Russia over the last few years, is what got us into the current position. It's a rock and a hard place.
I'm not advocating total isolation. I'm advocating smart engagement. We need to stop shitting in other people's pools and not expecting the neighbors to get pissed.
Gus, the only power interfering in Ukraine is Russia. There is no West problem at all.
I really wish I was wrong, but this is not going to end well. At the time of Russian aggression on Georgia it was said that if West did not respond then Ukraine will be next. Well, here we are now. I agree we need to be smart about this, like supply weapons to Ukraine without saying we are supplying weapons.
Quote from: Micha on February 09, 2015, 03:29:33 AM
Hello,
First at all, Putinis IS for me an evil Dictator even though the Russiand wants him like we Germans wanted hitler in the past.
Putin use the same tools to make People like him, Desinformation, lys and bad Propaganda.
For long time i was agree with the western position in the ucraine conflict. But during the last time i have more and more daubts.
Isn"t this this conflict not resembling to the Yugoslavia and Kosovo conflict ?
The problem is the People on the Krim and Eastern ukraine dont want to be part of the ukraine motherland, there is no daubt-
Same as in the Kosiovo conflict.
According to the OSZE the Ukraine Troops kills by full intend not only seperatists but also civillans like the serbs did in Kosovo.
Russia helps the Seperatists with Soldiers and Weapons like we did with Airstrikes in Kosovo.
But Russia made not any Sanktions against the West during that time.
By the way , if Amerika should deliver Weapons to the Ukraine we will have an endless Partisan war between the Seperatists
and the Ukraine.
And on the other Hand , the USSR did not resist when the Ukraine did split up from Russia , same for the Baltic states.
But the Ukraine failed to make friends with the russian minority.
Maybe its really the best to make a new refferendum under international control and give the the eastern ukraine and the Krim
the Status the mayority of People wants. Same for the russian speaking part of the Baltic stats. Everything else will lead in an
endless conflict.
But maybe i"m totally wrong, what do you think ?
There are reports that majority of people in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine did not want to be part of Russia. The referendums were all fake. Now it is too late. Those that want to be part of Russia must move to Russia. They have no future in Crimea or anywhere else in Ukraine, thanks to Putin's aggression.
I think the name of the thread should be changed to "News from Russian Conflict", as this is not about Ukraine or any Russian speakers there, just as in 1938 it wasn't really about German speakers in the Sudetenland.
Explosion in Donetsk arms dump, apparently killing 200 Russians:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuQ5EPnSE_4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuQ5EPnSE_4)
Quote from: Micha on February 09, 2015, 03:29:33 AM
According to the OSZE the Ukraine Troops kills by full intend not only seperatists but also civillans like the serbs did in Kosovo.
Hi Micha,
We haven't had any news coverage in the US (that I'm aware of) which has discussed Ukraine inflicting civilian casualties. So I did a quick search for news related to the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) covering the topic and came across this article: http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/136026
From what I can understand from this article it seems both Ukrainian and Russian forces are locked in battle in an urban area and both are firing somewhat inaccurate rockets at each other with civilians caught in the middle. The OSCE statement asks both sides to move out of the area.
Pawelj the West has been working behind the scenes in Ukraine for a long time, backing Western oriented leaders. That's how last spring's protests got started and it has been a legit issue.
Quote from: Gusington on February 09, 2015, 10:26:05 AM
Pawelj the West has been working behind the scenes in Ukraine for a long time, backing Western oriented leaders. That's how last spring's protests got started and it has been a legit issue.
Not sure what you mean by "behind the scenes". Economic cooperation Agreement with the EU is not exactly clandestine operation. And while the failure to sign might have been a catalyst for the discontent with the Kiev regime, it was its long term corrupt and antidemocratic policies that are at fault. Nothing to do with the West.
It had everything to do with the West. There are back room deals and shady goings on with both sides.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/09/world/crisis-in-ukraine-underscores-opposing-lessons-of-cold-war.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
Meanwhile, at the UN...
...oh, wait, they seem to be somewhat quiet about doing their primary mandate, whatever that was.
(Though to be fair they can't have any more solid idea what to do than anyone else outside of Putin himself; and his own options are kind of fuzzy.)
Pfft, the UN...don't get me started :/
"Moscow warned on Monday that Putin will not be spoken to in the language of ultimatums. Asked about media speculation Merkel had issued him an ultimatum at talks on arranging a summit on Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Govorit Moskva radio: "Nobody has ever talked to the president in the tone of an ultimatum - and could not do so even if they wanted to."
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN0LD15B20150209?irpc=932 (http://mobile.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN0LD15B20150209?irpc=932)
What a joke, he expects the world to treat him like a parent. I laugh at the fools that try to negotiate with such a person.
^It's that kind of style that's sweeping the East...again:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143014/mitchell-a-orenstein-peter-kreko-and-attila-juhasz/the-hungarian-putin?cid=nlc-foreign_affairs_today-020915-the_hungarian_putin_5-020915&sp_mid=47986558&sp_rid=bGxveWRic2FiaW5AZ21haWwuY29tS0
Quote from: Gusington on February 09, 2015, 01:51:31 PM
^It's that kind of style that's sweeping the East...again:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143014/mitchell-a-orenstein-peter-kreko-and-attila-juhasz/the-hungarian-putin?cid=nlc-foreign_affairs_today-020915-the_hungarian_putin_5-020915&sp_mid=47986558&sp_rid=bGxveWRic2FiaW5AZ21haWwuY29tS0
Perhaps we are in for a few years of national re-alignment (a la Yugoslavia). If this is the case, then "we" really should butt-out.
(https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/42662/width668/jgbw8cf7-1393501542.jpg)
^That's what I've been trying to say! Do we really want to be involved in this mess?
when ya get down to it do we really have a choice?
Quote from: Gusington on February 09, 2015, 03:12:57 PM
^That's what I've been trying to say! Do we really want to be involved in this mess?
I would only consider it in a case where a nation is about to be (re)occupied against their will. Even then, it's almost too tricky to contemplate.
It's a big shit sandwich. The biggest in 50 years. If we don't have a choice then we limit our involvement to Kosovo style involvement...bombing the shit out of 'Russian back rebels' when it appears a genocide is taking place. That makes me wonder...the Serbs have been quiet lately. Do they have an official position on all this?
There's a choice in EVERY situation in life. We may not like it, but it's there.
Quote from: MetalDog on February 09, 2015, 09:08:35 PM
There's a choice in EVERY situation in life. We may not like it, but it's there.
Yeah. Unfortunately sometimes it's Bad or Worse.
Today i read in the news the Ukraine has started a new offensive rigth before the next peacetalks. Sorry , now i will Change
finally my mind, the Ukrainans are not interested on a peacefull solution. The goal is to heat up the conflict to make the west to deliver weaopons, now ist proved. Its time now for Sanktions also against the ukraine, both belingerents are bad guys.
Quote from: Micha on February 10, 2015, 08:04:47 AM
Today i read in the news the Ukraine has started a new offensive rigth before the next peacetalks. Sorry , now i will Change
finally my mind, the Ukrainans are not interested on a peacefull solution. The goal is to heat up the conflict to make the west to deliver weaopons, now ist proved. Its time now for Sanktions also against the ukraine, both belingerents are bad guys.
I think that this is the bottom line, that there appears to be no clear "good guy" in all of this. The Ukrainian nationalists could very well be fascists and gangsters, and the Russians are clearly imperialists and gangsters.
Quote from: Centurion40 on February 09, 2015, 02:20:51 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 09, 2015, 01:51:31 PM
^It's that kind of style that's sweeping the East...again:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143014/mitchell-a-orenstein-peter-kreko-and-attila-juhasz/the-hungarian-putin?cid=nlc-foreign_affairs_today-020915-the_hungarian_putin_5-020915&sp_mid=47986558&sp_rid=bGxveWRic2FiaW5AZ21haWwuY29tS0
Perhaps we are in for a few years of national re-alignment (a la Yugoslavia). If this is the case, then "we" really should butt-out.
(https://62e528761d0685343e1c-f3d1b99a743ffa4142d9d7f1978d9686.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/files/42662/width668/jgbw8cf7-1393501542.jpg)
After the year of fighting the map is no longer valid. Russian have no future in Ukraine, thanks to Putin. Same as what happened to Germans outside of Germany after the war. And more recently Serbs in Croatia.
Ah yes, ethnic cleansing. Always a good solution :o
Nobody is going to pick a land conflict in Russian territory. They have nukes, and as long as they don't cross the NATO boundaries or current Russian boundaries, I don't think there will be any direct confrontation between NATO & Russian forces (or an escalation of conflict).
The wording of 'territory' now is tricky because of the confusion they have generated regarding Crimea & eastern Ukraine. Looks like a long, slow and messy conflict between Ukraine and Russian back supporters in Eastern Ukraine and/or Crimea. It remains to be seen if the West will supply arms to Ukraine, but if you look throughout history, nothing has stopped anybody from getting weapons to somebody indirectly.
Quote from: endfire79 on February 10, 2015, 11:20:41 AM
Nobody is going to pick a land conflict in Russian territory. They have nukes, and as long as they don't cross the NATO boundaries or current Russian boundaries, I don't think there will be any direct confrontation between NATO & Russian forces (or an escalation of conflict).
The wording of 'territory' now is tricky because of the confusion they have generated regarding Crimea & eastern Ukraine. Looks like a long, slow and messy conflict between Ukraine and Russian back supporters in Eastern Ukraine and/or Crimea. It remains to be seen if the West will supply arms to Ukraine, but if you look throughout history, nothing has stopped anybody from getting weapons to somebody indirectly.
I think you're right that there will be no direct confrontation.
I cannot imagine Putin wants a proxy war on his doorstep. My guess is if we start seriously arming the Ukrainians and Russian casualties start staggering home he'll find a way to end it.
Assuming we want to arm a thug state. :P
Hopefully the current peace talks will result in a division of Ukraine between a Ukrainian state ruled from Kiev and a Ukrainian state ruled by Moscow; and then that will be the end of it... for a decade, or so until the East Ukrainians say that they are being oppressed by the Russians/Russian-Ukrainians and then Kiev starts to make noise that the Eastern Ukrainians need to be liberated and Ukraine needs to be re-united. :buck2:
Didn't Ukraine just launch attacks ahead of the coming peace talks? ???
Quote from: Centurion40 on February 10, 2015, 12:15:35 PM
Hopefully the current peace talks will result in a division of Ukraine between a Ukrainian state ruled from Kiev and a Ukrainian state ruled by Moscow; and then that will be the end of it... for a decade, or so until the East Ukrainians say that they are being oppressed by the Russians/Russian-Ukrainians and then Kiev starts to make noise that the Eastern Ukrainians need to be liberated and Ukraine needs to be re-united. :buck2:
This is not about Ukraine and it will not be the end of it. Especially if the Russian aggression is allowed to stay.
Perhaps not. But "we" have no legal reason to punch the Russians in the nose. Unless the Russians act against a NATO member, the best that you can hope for is a protracted war in Ukraine with "us" providing arms and aid to Kiev whilst they battle the Bear.
Quote from: Centurion40 on February 10, 2015, 02:27:00 PM
Perhaps not. But "we" have no legal reason to punch the Russians in the nose. Unless the Russians act against a NATO member, the best that you can hope for is a protracted war in Ukraine with "us" providing arms and aid to Kiev whilst they battle the Bear.
There is the Budapest memorandum guaranteeing Ukrainian territorial integrity in exchange for giving up nukes. Not the same as NATO treaty, but close enough. And also since they say they are not in Ukraine it wont be "punching Russians". And Crimea is not Russia either. US/Nato should arm Ukraine while denying they are not arming them. There so may ways to punish Russia militarily short of direct attack.
According to the Memorandum, the first step (should aggression be used against Ukraine) is to petition the UN Security Council.
A pointless document with a pointless outcome. Still, should "we" decide that push has come to shove, it could be used.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
You have think of it as another test of NATO, after Georgian adventure. If Putin thinks he can get away with it, he will try going for Estonia and Latvia. I can give you a scenario: A city of Daugavpils in Latvia is just near the border with Russia. It has a sizable Russian population. If armed men in unmarked uniforms take over the city , quickly "vote" to join Russia, Russia accepts send in some troops, all in 48 hours, what should NATO do?
Quote from: Centurion40 on February 10, 2015, 04:02:43 PM
According to the Memorandum, the first step (should aggression be used against Ukraine) is to petition the UN Security Council.
A pointless document with a pointless outcome. Still, should "we" decide that push has come to shove, it could be used.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
Russia is shoving.
Quote from: pawelj on February 10, 2015, 04:06:04 PMIf armed men in unmarked uniforms take over the city , quickly "vote" to join Russia, Russia accepts send in some troops, all in 48 hours, what should NATO do?
I would suspect that the first step is to start arresting guys in those uniforms and if there's resistance, then you're going to get shooters. And the first uniformed Russian to cross the border of a NATO country will ignite a war the Russians don't want, can't afford, and won't win.
Eagle Guardian:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Guardian
theres a lot of cross training going on there as I type this.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs7.postimg.org%2Frnli9zj5n%2F1745829.jpg&hash=f79123aa09ba41c164f1fccdcdc198ffb1da925a)
QuoteSoldiers with the 3rd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment conducted a squad based exercise in the intense cold of Adazi, Latvia, Jan. 28, 2015. This training event is a part of the squadron's participation in Operation Atlantic Resolve. (U.S. Army Photo by Pfc. Jaccob Hearn)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs14.postimg.org%2Fb6k5gweqp%2F1745847.jpg&hash=3fdf71f7da5b96a2d4548ed8cfeb1e8196e0a1cf)
QuoteSoldiers with the 3rd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment conducted a squad based exercise in the intense cold of Adazi, Latvia, Jan. 28, 2015. This training event is a part of the squadron's participation in Operation Atlantic Resolve. (U.S. Army Photo by Pfc. Jaccob Hearn)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs23.postimg.org%2Fmwppst01n%2F1747509.jpg&hash=7c01c41d899fb5a87ce7fe083bf8fe809e7daaaa)
QuoteLightning Troop, 3rd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment get to know the Soldiers and equipment of the Algirdas Battalion, Iron Wolf Brigade, Lithuanian land forces at Rukla, Lithuania, Feb. 2, 2015. (U.S. Army Photos by Pfc. Jaccob Hearn)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs8.postimg.org%2F4lg776zsl%2F1747522.jpg&hash=d05a8a197a5f95faea5f8759697ed52965ce1684)
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Quote from: pawelj on February 10, 2015, 04:06:04 PM
You have think of it as another test of NATO, after Georgian adventure. If Putin thinks he can get away with it, he will try going for Estonia and Latvia. I can give you a scenario: A city of Daugavpils in Latvia is just near the border with Russia. It has a sizable Russian population. If armed men in unmarked uniforms take over the city , quickly "vote" to join Russia, Russia accepts send in some troops, all in 48 hours, what should NATO do?
Nothing.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on February 10, 2015, 04:11:53 PM
Quote from: pawelj on February 10, 2015, 04:06:04 PMIf armed men in unmarked uniforms take over the city , quickly "vote" to join Russia, Russia accepts send in some troops, all in 48 hours, what should NATO do?
I would suspect that the first step is to start arresting guys in those uniforms and if there's resistance, then you're going to get shooters. And the first uniformed Russian to cross the border of a NATO country will ignite a war the Russians don't want, can't afford, and won't win.
If it were to happen that way.
But if it was quick & surgical, with Estonian authorities rapidly overpowered and then shown the gate, a la Crimea; my opinion is that nothing would happen.
But if Estonian police/troops were to exchange fire with Russian regulars- then cry havoc, maybe.
Meanwhile, this is what we are doing in Lithuania...
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dnd.ca%2Fassets%2FFORCES_Internet%2Fimages%2Fhome%2Fgallery%2Forig%2Fwg2014-0438-0208.jpg&hash=a0728ee78ed7a1498b0bcf85a05cf1cc0c07359c)
Germans on the move...oy vey.
^^ I was thinking the same thing. Not at all the same situation of course, but seeing the iron cross on modern mechanized APCs... shivery.
Not necessarily in a bad way. More in a "reformed supervillain is about to kick ass" sort of way. 8)
NATO has to respond to any direct attack on a member nation, and I don't see any evidence why we wouldn't. It's an interesting strategic situation right now. Neither Russia nor NATO has the ability to prosecute a major offensive into the others' territory, but both have sufficient forces to defend. With nukes in the equation, maybe it's best it stays this way. Ukraine isn't NATO's fight.
more to the point those pictures show US Army units training with regional forces.
and German armor and US cavalry working together should give and has given the Soviet Russian military heartburn.
Time to unleash Zombie Patton!
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2015, 09:20:22 AM
more to the point those pictures show US Army units training with regional forces.
and German armor and US cavalry working together should give and has given the Soviet Russian military heartburn.
Indeed.
Boots in Ukraine.
QuoteA battalion of around 600 American paratroopers will be heading to Ukraine next month to train national guard troops there, a Pentagon spokesman told Fox News Wednesday.
The unit heading to the war-torn country is from the U.S. Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team, based out of Vicenza, Italy.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/02/11/fighting-rages-on-in-ukraine-ahead-peace-talks/
Quote from: LongBlade on February 11, 2015, 11:38:35 AM
Boots in Ukraine.
QuoteA battalion of around 600 American paratroopers will be heading to Ukraine next month to train national guard troops there, a Pentagon spokesman told Fox News Wednesday.
The unit heading to the war-torn country is from the U.S. Army's 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team, based out of Vicenza, Italy.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/02/11/fighting-rages-on-in-ukraine-ahead-peace-talks/
Interesting.... do they now become a trip wire? How far do you go if one of them is killed by Ukrainian separatists? by Russians?
I doubt that they will be that far forward for the time being.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2015, 12:04:05 PM
I doubt that they will be that far forward for the time being.
Never the less.... shit does, sometimes, happen....
What are the chances they "accidentally" leave some equipment behind?
They're paratroopers. They'll sort it out.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2015, 12:04:05 PM
I doubt that they will be that far forward for the time being.
They're not. The article says they're in Western Ukraine.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 11, 2015, 12:57:10 PM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2015, 12:04:05 PM
I doubt that they will be that far forward for the time being.
They're not. The article says they're in Western Ukraine.
I think you mean Western Russia.
Quote from: mirth on February 11, 2015, 01:59:37 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on February 11, 2015, 12:57:10 PM
They're not. The article says they're in Western Ukraine.
I think you mean Western Russia.
That's how Russia probably views the place. Out to Poland.
in other good news the first planes we've sent are the ones the dipships in the Air Force want to get rid of.
2/10/2015 - RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany -- The U.S. Air Force deployed 12 A-10 Thunderbolt II aircraft and approximately 300 Airmen as part of a theater security package to the 52nd Fighter Wing, Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve this week.
The aircraft and Airmen, from the 355th Fighter Wing, Davis-Monthan AFB, Ariz., and are set to be in place and fulfilling the TSP mission by the end of the month.
The TSPs will augment U.S. Air Forces in Europe's existing efforts as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve by conducting flying training deployments and off-station training with NATO allies to further enhance interoperability.
Operation Atlantic Resolve is a demonstration of U.S. European Command and United States Air Forces in Europe's continued commitment to the collective security of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and dedication to the enduring peace and stability in the region.
"The Air Force has been rotating forces as a part of OAR for the past year," said Lt. Gen. Tom Jones, vice commander, United States Air Forces in Europe - Air Forces Africa. "The TSP is another way the Air Force is increasing rotational presence in Europe to reassure our allies and partner nations that our commitment to European security is a priority."
While in Germany, the unit will conduct training alongside NATO allies with the goal of strengthening interoperability and enhancing regional security. The unit will later forward deploy to locations in Eastern European NATO nations.
"The U.S. Air Force's forward presence in Europe area provides the support infrastructure needed to increase our current force and build new and deeper partnerships across the continent," said Jones.
The A-10s are the first of several TSP deployments to Europe. Rotations will generally last six months, depending on mission and U.S. European Command requirements. Although a first in Europe, the Air Force has been conducting similar TSP rotations in the Pacific region since 2004.
http://www.usafe.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123438740
Putin will go down in history as the man who saved the A-10.
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Quote from: Staggerwing on February 11, 2015, 06:49:56 PM
Putin will go down in history as the man who saved the A-10.
How do you say 'Brrrrrrrrrpppppp!' in Russian?
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Im finding it funny how idiots on forums and whatnot are commenting on how the A-10 can't survive in a modern AAA environment.
I read this shit and think, Do you kids know what this thing was originally built for?
I love the smell of burning Russian armor in the morning!
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2015, 07:10:11 PM
Im finding it funny how idiots on forums and whatnot are commenting on how the A-10 can't survive in a modern AAA environment.
I read this shit and think, Do you kids know what this thing was originally built for?
It was built to survive concentrated Soviet Air Defenses. Manpads, ZSU-23s, etc.
Ballsy move sending US paratroopers to Ukraine, even if it is in the west away from the front.
I dont think obama knows we did it. ::)
Why bother him with the operational details?
Quote from: mirth on February 11, 2015, 06:56:47 PMHow do you say 'Brrrrrrrrrpppppp!' in Russian?
"Brrrrrrrrrpppppp"
I thought it was "Brrrrrrrpppp-ski"
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 11, 2015, 07:10:11 PM
Im finding it funny how idiots on forums and whatnot are commenting on how the A-10 can't survive in a modern AAA environment.
I read this shit and think, Do you kids know what this thing was originally built for?
IIRC there were a number of engagements in Iraq which should have dispelled that notion.
Quote from: mirth on February 11, 2015, 07:31:25 PM
I thought it was "Brrrrrrrpppp-ski"
More like :
"Командир, ты пердеть ?"
" Нет! Отказаться от автомобиля в настоящее время !"
Ceasefire on valentines day.
http://www.straitstimes.com/news/world/europe/story/ukraine-ceasefire-deal-come-effect-midnight-feb-14-20150212#xtor=CS1-10 http://
I got this from a former Russian FAO who still works for the DOD and has multiple connections in the intel biz.
I've also seen Blank talk a few times back at Ohio St
Quote(U) RUSSIA'S NEW MILITARY DOCTRINE -
6 Feb 15 (U) Woodrow Wilson Center hosted Michael Kofman, Wilson Scholar and former DOD official, and Stephen Blank, American Foreign Policy Council, to discuss the topic.
Michael Kofman's key points:
1) no return to the Cold War;
2) this is an updated version of their 2010 military doctrine;
3) Russian views of Operational Environment (OE): strengthening of global competition, rivalry of values,
increasing complexity, and new centers of economic growth;
4) Russia's view is that it is surrounded by instability and insecurities;
5) against NATO expansion, NATO operating outside of Europe, and worried about NATO's increasing power potential;
6) assess likelihood of large land conventional conflict as "low";
7) divides challenges into "external threats" and "external dangers", NATO is designated a "danger";
8 ) walks back adversarial tone from the 2010 document, but still blames the West for instability;
9) Global Strike is viewed as a danger, not a threat;
10) opposed to US BMD;
11) Ukraine: still believes that the US orchestrated the coup there, and that the West is using mercenaries to fight in Ukraine;
12) also concerned about cyber;
13) nuclear - walked back possibility of use with regards to (WRT) regional conflicts;
14) Russia views most of its problems as being on its periphery;
15) a National Defense Management Center has been opened - it's a fusion center for all of Russia's security agencies;
16) sees the US as on the decline, and managing that decline as a major issue; (For Russia or for the USA?)
17) Russian Army has drastically improved, thus the walking back of its nuclear doctrine;
18) 2016-25 procurement program will face cuts;
19) US/NATO still vastly more powerful than Russia;
20) moving more to a contract force; doesn't see the average citizen as a soldier;
21) "Russian goal is for you not to know what the truth is";
22) don't expect an internal uprising - Russian society is genuinely mobilized after Crimea;
23) US policy makers are very poor at predicting Russia's actions;
24) Russia has circumvented the INF Treaty, but this is in part because they are worried about China; and
25) if war breaks out, Russia plans to lose Kaliningrad.
Mr. Blank's comments below.
Additional notes
Stephen Blank:
-Russian doctrine is an extension of the Leninist mentality - "we are surrounded by enemies who want to destroy us;"
-There is no democratic control of any of Russia's security agencies,
they always accept the worst case scenario WRT the "NATO threat;"
-Russian political system is objectively paranoid, they project onto the US what they themselves do;
-Doctrine advocates unrestricted warfare - information war is a deliberate instrument of state policy
-Vastly upgrading/adding weapons platforms despite economic woes;
-In the Russian defense view: "cutting defense spending is tantamount to treason;"
-Defense spending is at least in excess of 4% of GDP;
-Russia wants to be able to mobilize manpower and industry in case of war, creating reserve armies and expanding overflights and air bases;
-Russia is requesting military bases in Greece, Egypt, and Vietnam;
-Russia is growing increasingly confident in using military force;
-Putin has never accepted the sovereignty of either the former states of the Soviet Union, or the countries that used be in the Warsaw Pact;
-Ukraine is emblematic of Russia's doctrine - not at opportunistic act, but planned since 2005, the recent revolution was merely the catalyst to act;
-Unlike the US, Russia takes strategy seriously;
-By 2017, Russia will be able to wage three "Ukraines" simultaneously;
-Russia tailors its forces to the requirements of a particular theater;
-The Baltic States are concerned about asymmetric threats, not the Russian Army storming across the border;
-Putin is confident that the West lacks the will to resist;
-Polls showing support for Putin are bogus, there is less support than it appears;
- Putin, like Stalin, sees heavy industry and armaments as the key to national greatness;
-"If I were a Baltic Defense Minister, after Ukraine I'd be nervous;"
-The Conventional Forces Europe (CFE) Treaty is dead;
-Russian Special Forces (SF) are no longer Spetznatz, they are based on US Special Forces;
-Russia has a lot of leverage in Hungary and Bulgaria
-US doesn't understand the problem to begin with - there is no strategy or awareness that a strategy is needed;
-In the absence of Western response, Russia will continue to march forward
Quote from: mirth on February 11, 2015, 06:56:47 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 11, 2015, 06:49:56 PM
Putin will go down in history as the man who saved the A-10.
How do you say 'Brrrrrrrrrpppppp!' in Russian?
"Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaght!!!!" :)
I give the new cease fire 3 weeks max.
These seem to me to be the most salient points. I'll answer them inline.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on February 12, 2015, 06:02:26 AM
14) Russia views most of its problems as being on its periphery;
An enormous assumption that is completely wrong. Their economy has collapsed.
-Russian political system is objectively paranoid, they project onto the US what they themselves do;
This kind of thinking will lead them to a disaster of their own making.
-Putin has never accepted the sovereignty of either the former states of the Soviet Union, or the countries that used be in the Warsaw Pact;
Another large assumption that will lead them to disaster.
-Unlike the US, Russia takes strategy seriously;
True for the next couple of years at least.
-The Baltic States are concerned about asymmetric threats, not the Russian Army storming across the border;
An assumption that will lead to disaster.
-Putin is confident that the West lacks the will to resist;
True for the next couple of years.
-Polls showing support for Putin are bogus, there is less support than it appears;
This statement seems to be at odds with #22 above
22) don't expect an internal uprising - Russian society is genuinely mobilized after Crimea;
Russian bases in Greece? Interesting.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on February 12, 2015, 06:02:26 AM"-Putin has never accepted the sovereignty of either the former states of the Soviet Union, or the countries that used be in the Warsaw Pact;"
Russians basically see only three countries as sovereign: Russia, China and the US. The rest are "puppets". Which that world view any negotiation with Russia is pointless, and conflict inevitable. A conflict with no rules as far as Russia is concerned. The West should use Ukraine to bleed Russia as much as possible if they were smart.
It is 1938 all over again, but more dangerous. I fear we are on the eve of WW2 part 2. This latest non-agreement in Minsk will do FA to "resolve" the situation. At least the Germans are honest enough to admit that already. There is no political solution apart from having Putin and his cronies removed from power.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2015, 08:24:06 AM
I give the new cease fire 3 weeks max.
You are such an optimist. ;)
Quote from: Gusington on February 12, 2015, 08:33:05 AM
Russian bases in Greece? Interesting.
There was talk of Cyprus, but the was denied by Cypriots.
Quote from: pawelj on February 12, 2015, 08:47:19 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2015, 08:24:06 AM
I give the new cease fire 3 weeks max.
You are such an optimist. ;)
nah, thats about the time needed to replace equipment, ammo stocks and men.
Quote from: pawelj on February 12, 2015, 08:49:36 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 12, 2015, 08:33:05 AM
Russian bases in Greece? Interesting.
There was talk of Cyprus, but the was denied by Cypriots.
Well, Greece needs in the income!
Quote from: pawelj on February 12, 2015, 08:46:33 AM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on February 12, 2015, 06:02:26 AM"-Putin has never accepted the sovereignty of either the former states of the Soviet Union, or the countries that used be in the Warsaw Pact;"
Russians basically see only three countries as sovereign: Russia, China and the US. The rest are "puppets". Which that world view any negotiation with Russia is pointless, and conflict inevitable. A conflict with no rules as far as Russia is concerned. The West should use Ukraine to bleed Russia as much as possible if they were smart.
It is 1938 all over again, but more dangerous. I fear we are on the eve of WW2 part 2. This latest non-agreement in Minsk will do FA to "resolve" the situation. At least the Germans are honest enough to admit that already. There is no political solution apart from having Putin and his cronies removed from power.
If this is true, and the Russians see the US as "in decline", then they are truly worried about China into the future.
China and Russia and Venezuela, Iran, Europe and any other country has been claiming that the US is in a decline.....any day now!
While we maybe declining the rate and trend of our decline is a lot less than all those other countries. I love these high level reports that don't provide any details or facts to back up their assertions.
On the other hand I am quite interested in an intellectual way on the A10 vs the F16 is a CAS debate. This might get tested out now and all those hypothetical could be now backed up with real missions. I hope the best for the A10 but I do feel that the SAM and MANPAD offensive technology in hitting and damaging slow moving planes has moved past the A10. Its the military version of Boeing Dreamliner vs Airbus A380.
Con
Keep in mind countemeasures for SAMs has improved quite a bit as well. And we're still quite good at SEAD.
Quote from: Centurion40 on February 12, 2015, 08:58:52 AM
Quote from: pawelj on February 12, 2015, 08:49:36 AM
Quote from: Gusington on February 12, 2015, 08:33:05 AM
Russian bases in Greece? Interesting.
There was talk of Cyprus, but the was denied by Cypriots.
Well, Greece needs in the income!
Putin is cunning and i would guess he would consider to try to exploit bankrupt EU countries if it served a purpose
Quote from: mirth on February 12, 2015, 09:36:38 AMKeep in mind countemeasures for SAMs has improved quite a bit as well. And we're still quite good at SEAD.
assuming we have the guns there to fire it
Quote from: mirth on February 11, 2015, 06:56:47 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 11, 2015, 06:49:56 PM
Putin will go down in history as the man who saved the A-10.
How do you say 'Brrrrrrrrrpppppp!' in Russian?
"Bozhe Moy! Eto Krest D'yavola! Begite!"
Quote from: mirth on February 12, 2015, 09:36:38 AM
Keep in mind countemeasures for SAMs has improved quite a bit as well. And we're still quite good at SEAD.
True, but is the A-10 a Wild Weasel platform really?
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 12, 2015, 12:31:05 PM
Quote from: mirth on February 12, 2015, 09:36:38 AM
Keep in mind countemeasures for SAMs has improved quite a bit as well. And we're still quite good at SEAD.
True, but is the A-10 a Wild Weasel platform really?
No but we have assets for that mission, so that the A-10 can do it's job
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 12, 2015, 12:31:05 PM
Quote from: mirth on February 12, 2015, 09:36:38 AM
Keep in mind countemeasures for SAMs has improved quite a bit as well. And we're still quite good at SEAD.
True, but is the A-10 a Wild Weasel platform really?
Thats an F-16 mission IIRC.
"Russian Special Forces (SF) are no longer Spetznatz, they are based on US Special Forces" -- thank God, no backflipping axe-throwers to worry about. >:D
Russian airbase in Egypt or Greece == Mediterranean boil. Worse if Egypt; deadly if both.
Russian support for nationalism could be strong without equivalent support for Putin personally; but at the ground level (civiies and basic troops) the distinction is practically the same because of Putin's autocracy. (Regardless of how much that's a figurehead for whatever-interests.)
Star, has the Strike Falcon (or whatever the ground attack family is called -- I'm embarrassed to say I've forgot) taken over the F-111 and/or F-117 duties? Or are Frisbees rare enough that they go in first for the toughest key positions with Falcon Linebackers blitzing close behind for mop-up? Come to think of it, I haven't heard of F-111s in a while...
both F-111s and F-117s are retired and have been for a while.
interdiction missions are covered by F-15E Strike Eagles and SEAD is mostly covered by F-16s with some overlap.
at this point Im pretty sure that "knock the door" in missions on the first night would be covered by B-2s now.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2015, 12:42:25 PM
Quote from: JasonPratt on February 12, 2015, 12:31:05 PM
Quote from: mirth on February 12, 2015, 09:36:38 AM
Keep in mind countemeasures for SAMs has improved quite a bit as well. And we're still quite good at SEAD.
True, but is the A-10 a Wild Weasel platform really?
Thats an F-16 mission IIRC.
Yes.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 12, 2015, 12:51:57 PM
both F-111s and F-117s are retired and have been for a while.
interdiction missions are covered by F-15E Strike Eagles and SEAD is mostly covered by F-16s with some overlap.
at this point Im pretty sure that "knock the door" in missions on the first night would be covered by B-2s now.
I think you'd see some Navy aircraft and a healthy does of cruise missiles used as well, but you've covered it.
The point is that we still know how to do SEAD and still have the capability. I think the A-10 would still be able to operate and survive against modern AD, if properly supported. It was never intended to operate against high density Air Defences without support.
http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/the-usafs-rationale-for-retiring-the-a-10-warthog-is-bu-1562789528
Quote"Single-purpose, single-mission? My ass."
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/a-10-attack-jets-rack-up-air-to-air-kills-in-louisiana-war-game-a2299445b2a4 (https://medium.com/war-is-boring/a-10-attack-jets-rack-up-air-to-air-kills-in-louisiana-war-game-a2299445b2a4)
A-10's back to Europe
http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/12/world/a-10-jets-to-europe/index.html
Well the peace was fun, but back to business.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/ukraine-50-russian-tanks-and-40-missile-systems-rolled-into-the-country-while-putin-talked-peace-2015-2?r=US (http://uk.businessinsider.com/ukraine-50-russian-tanks-and-40-missile-systems-rolled-into-the-country-while-putin-talked-peace-2015-2?r=US)
According to the Ukrainians,
"About 50 tanks, 40 missile systems, and 40 armored vehicles crossed overnight into eastern Ukraine from Russia via the Izvaryne border crossing into the separatist Luhansk region, a Kiev military spokesman said on Thursday."
Hey, the peace goes into effect Feb 14, right? RUN THOSE ASSETS OVER THE BORDER NOWWWWW!!!1!
Video on Russia's military spending in 90 seconds
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31167173
Quote from: OJsDad on February 13, 2015, 08:40:23 AM
Video on Russia's military spending in 90 seconds
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31167173
Meh. The last few seconds are telling - that Russia spends more of its GDP percentage-wise on defense than the US, but the US spends seven times more than Russia.
Also, the T-50 isn't nearly as impressive as the BBC seems to think it is.
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the-indians-hate-their-new-russian-made-stealth-fighter-d89b9ce721de
According to CNN there were 40+ "incidents" in New Russia overnight there with about three dozen Ukrainian troops wounded or killed. Are the Russians trying to get in some shots before the 7th inning stretch?
Yup
According to the article the Indians have invested $6 billion in the plane and their version only exists on paper.
Maybe they should have bought American?
Quote from: LongBlade on February 13, 2015, 11:48:56 AM
According to the article the Indians have invested $6 billion in the plane and their version only exists on paper.
Maybe they should have bought American?
India is probably a better potential ally in mainland Asia to us than anyone else. But we have this weird and mostly one-sided f'd up relationship with Pakistan that's a point of contention. I've often wondered why we haven't been closer with India than the Russians. They don't have much love for China and, frankly, Pakistan can suck it too.
Bingo.
Quote from: OJsDad on February 13, 2015, 08:40:23 AM
Video on Russia's military spending in 90 seconds
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31167173
Combined with this:
(Putin's 15 years in power)
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30541743 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30541743)
I'd say there's food for thought.
Quote from: Atilla60 on February 13, 2015, 04:45:22 PM
Quote from: OJsDad on February 13, 2015, 08:40:23 AM
Video on Russia's military spending in 90 seconds
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31167173
Combined with this:
(Putin's 15 years in power)
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30541743 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30541743)
I'd say there's food for thought.
It left out Georgia and the Sudetenland analogy.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 13, 2015, 04:52:14 PM
Quote from: Atilla60 on February 13, 2015, 04:45:22 PM
Quote from: OJsDad on February 13, 2015, 08:40:23 AM
Video on Russia's military spending in 90 seconds
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31167173
Combined with this:
(Putin's 15 years in power)
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30541743 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30541743)
I'd say there's food for thought.
It left out Georgia and the Sudetenland analogy.
But it's still creepy
We can all agree that these are creepy times.
Quote from: Gusington on February 13, 2015, 04:58:14 PM
We can all agree that these are creepy times.
It's going to get creepier Gus
I don't know how much more creepy I can handle.
Quote from: Gusington on February 13, 2015, 07:32:45 PM
I don't know how much more creepy I can handle.
don't sell yourself short
Small targets people have a wee advantage.
There's little in the way of an alternative.
Quote from: Atilla60 on February 13, 2015, 06:04:03 PM
Quote from: Gusington on February 13, 2015, 04:58:14 PM
We can all agree that these are creepy times.
It's going to get creepier Gus
Russkies are already preparing propaganda for not stopping their aggression, by blaming the "some" Western countries, particularly naming the US, for undermining the "agreement".
Remember folks, this is not just about Ukraine. It is about Russia trying to undermine the NATO alliance. You cannot compromise with Russians. Anyone who thinks that they know better and that there is a possibility of some political compromise short of total capitulation is fooling themselves. So yeah, its gonna get much more creepier.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 14, 2015, 01:34:23 AM
Small targets people have a wee advantage.
Thats because they're closer to the toilet.
Intersting website. Shows a different perspective. Not sure if already shared
https://burkonews.info
We live in interesting times
Dammed if we do and dammed if we dont....no matter what we do in the Ukraine there are going to be bad consequences for the West
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31496933
Con
Quote from: Con on February 16, 2015, 06:17:22 PM
We live in interesting times
Dammed if we do and dammed if we dont....no matter what we do in the Ukraine there are going to be bad consequences for the West
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31496933
Con
With all respect to the position he held, I see no clear advise in his position. 'Do not send weapons because Russia will take it further than us.' Ok, so they take Ukraine. Then it's on to the next grab, probably the Baltics if Ukriane was a walk in the park. Same advise 'they will go furtherthan we can handle'. wash, rinse, repeat.
It sounds to me like he is willing to let Russia re-take all the old Soviet territory. Then what?
Many finance managers climb the heirarchy by being good at warning about how things will go wrong. They generally never have any ideas of what can work.
Having a "discussion" will not stop Russian weapons. What matters is capability. NATO needs the capability to crush Russian agression at it's eastern border. End of story. Weapons to Ukraine, once that is in place, may or may not prevent Eastern NATO from getting trashed. Debate that if you like.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 16, 2015, 06:56:39 PM
Quote from: Con on February 16, 2015, 06:17:22 PM
We live in interesting times
Dammed if we do and dammed if we dont....no matter what we do in the Ukraine there are going to be bad consequences for the West
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31496933
Con
With all respect to the position he held, I see no clear advise in his position. 'Do not send weapons because Russia will take it further than us.' Ok, so they take Ukraine. Then it's on to the next grab, probably the Baltics if Ukriane was a walk in the park. Same advise 'they will go furtherthan we can handle'. wash, rinse, repeat.
It sounds to me like he is willing to let Russia re-take all the old Soviet territory. Then what?
Many finance managers climb the heirarchy by being good at warning about how things will go wrong. They generally never have any ideas of what can work.
Having a "discussion" will not stop Russian weapons. What matters is capability. NATO needs the capability to crush Russian agression at it's eastern border. End of story. Weapons to Ukraine, once that is in place, may or may not prevent Eastern NATO from getting trashed. Debate that if you like.
He says what I've been saying that this is no longer about Ukraine. This what we get by not reacting to the first Russian aggression on Georgia. There is no political solution to this, apart from capitulation, and unraveling of NATO with all its terrible consequences. Western leaders need to seriously man up, or things are going to get worse. West needs start providing weapons to Ukraine without saying we are providing weapons. Russia is rubbish when it fight alone.
Warthogs to Poland.
http://theaviationist.com/2015/02/15/a10s-heading-to-poland/
^
QuoteU.S. A-10 Thunderbolds to be temporarily stationed in Poland?
???
A look inside the economic effects of the sanctions on Russia.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/putin-lets-consumers-feel-pain-as-russian-slump-deepens/ar-BBhCc9W
Quote from: pawelj on February 16, 2015, 07:12:48 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 16, 2015, 06:56:39 PM
Quote from: Con on February 16, 2015, 06:17:22 PM
We live in interesting times
Dammed if we do and dammed if we dont....no matter what we do in the Ukraine there are going to be bad consequences for the West
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-31496933
Con
With all respect to the position he held, I see no clear advise in his position. 'Do not send weapons because Russia will take it further than us.' Ok, so they take Ukraine. Then it's on to the next grab, probably the Baltics if Ukriane was a walk in the park. Same advise 'they will go furtherthan we can handle'. wash, rinse, repeat.
It sounds to me like he is willing to let Russia re-take all the old Soviet territory. Then what?
Many finance managers climb the heirarchy by being good at warning about how things will go wrong. They generally never have any ideas of what can work.
Having a "discussion" will not stop Russian weapons. What matters is capability. NATO needs the capability to crush Russian agression at it's eastern border. End of story. Weapons to Ukraine, once that is in place, may or may not prevent Eastern NATO from getting trashed. Debate that if you like.
He says what I've been saying that this is no longer about Ukraine. This what we get by not reacting to the first Russian aggression on Georgia. There is no political solution to this, apart from capitulation, and unraveling of NATO with all its terrible consequences. Western leaders need to seriously man up, or things are going to get worse. West needs start providing weapons to Ukraine without saying we are providing weapons. Russia is rubbish when it fight alone.
We are all agreed this is going to get worse ... Period. We have to start thinking about how we will contribute to the potential war effort.
ReForGer 15
I think you have to give Eastern Ukraine up, its basically a done deal that the Ukrainians are going to get shafted because this is no longer about what is good for them its about clubbing Russia down in a way that doesnt trigger an all out war.
Split Ukraine giving the rebels and Russian all that they have grabbed (then make them choke on it)
Have the US put missile bases and other big expensive and too important to allow then to fall into Russian hands assets in the other NATO countries (bases, airports etc) to demonstrate that there is a resolve to back up rhetoric
Turn Western Ukraine into a 12 month a year massive military exercise area with constant rotating in and out of brigade sized NATO forces on a continuous training regime
Use the political fall out of Russian loss of goodwill to ram through higher defense spending into Germany, UK and other NATO powers
Get the Tartars involved as a partisan force to stir up trouble in Crimea and the Eastern part of the Ukraine to tie down large amounts of Russian military assets.
Encourage the Chinese to view the border areas of Sino/Russian parts of Siberia as part of their cultural heritage and get the China/Russian suspicion of each others motives to paranoid levels again
Wait until the pain on the ordinary Russians is high enough and the Oligarchs have split from Putin and his inner coterie to establish and support a legitimate political opposition to Putin.
And number one thing to do is to avoid fighting Russia on her own turf (it didnt turn out too well for Napoleon and Hitler)
Con
I think what Sir Sawers is hinting at is something Gus has mentioned several times. The potential goal of splitting NATO. Lets stop beating around the bush. What could cause that? Do western countries have the ability to handle the systemic shock of a big conflict? The impact on the average civilian life would be massive. Would weak politicians try to save their skins when the population would rather throw Eastern Europe to the wolves than live through something like WWII again? What would happen next if NATO did come apart? They would all fall to the Bear apart from the US. In a 100 years, If Russia had the resources of all Europe could the US stand? Would Russia be content behind the oceans? Probably not. Lets keep in mind at some point the nuke missile will be rendered obsolete. It is just a matter of time.
We can wait for the Russian outrage to be big enough to get us standing together. They will try to manage that. Sooner or later they must be forced to back down.
I dont think russia could get past Poland.
Quote from: Con on February 16, 2015, 11:19:56 PM
I think you have to give Eastern Ukraine up, its basically a done deal that the Ukrainians are going to get shafted because this is no longer about what is good for them its about clubbing Russia down in a way that doesnt trigger an all out war.
And number one thing to do is to avoid fighting Russia on her own turf (it didnt turn out too well for Napoleon and Hitler)
Con
I'm afraid that would be the worst idea, gaining nothing. You let them keep any bit of Ukraine, you relinquish one major moral advantage. What you do is double down by demanding withdrawal from Georgia and Moldova, while they still can in one piece.
Don't be afraid to fight them on their own turf, just make it your own. Hitler and Napoleon failed because they made different mistakes. Napoleon should have stopped in Smolensk for the winter. Hitler lost a war on December 12, when he declared war on USA. Today Russia is all alone, and like a bully needs to be dealt a punch in the nose. It is better now in Ukraine then somewhere else later.
My Churchill quote is more relevant then ever.
Russia is not as big a threat to NATO right now as Greece is. And the EU. And Russia is loving it.
Quote from: Gusington on February 17, 2015, 09:48:11 AM
Russia is not as big a threat to NATO right now as Greece is. And the EU. And Russia is loving it.
And lets keep it that way by arming Ukraine.
Con had a point. Russia has 143 million population. Not much of it lies next to Mongolia and China. Their rivalry still exists and chinas claims are not dormant. Putin made a huge gas deal last year with them, he knows he has to placate them.
And about nuclear missiles going obsolete - how do you suggest?
Why do you think the russians hate ABM systems in Poland so much.
I guess I misunderstood. I thought Biggs was thinking about something like Star Wars initiatives, I really didn't think we were even near there yet.
Quote from: endfire79 on February 17, 2015, 12:40:57 PM
I really didn't think we were even near there yet.
Israel is knocking small rockets out of the sky with consistency. I suspect we're a lot closer than anyone knows.
We are. :coolsmiley:
I'm pretty sure that our ship based laser is at sea now on its first deployment.
we also have roughly 5 or 6 missile systems for killing various types of ballistic missiles.
PAC-3, SM-2, SM-6, THAAD, upper block model Patriots and some Im forgetting.
There have been successful ICBM test interceptions by modified Navy SAMs.
I believe the anti-missile defenses that were to be placed in Poland, which Russia tossed an utter fit about, is similar.
Ukrainian forces retreat from one rebel controlled area:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/18/europe/ukraine-conflict/index.html
Quote from: Centurion40 on February 18, 2015, 01:28:01 PM
Ukrainian forces retreat from one rebel controlled area:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/18/europe/ukraine-conflict/index.html
The inaction of the Western leaders will have us sleepwalking into a much greater war then necessary.
Russian media learn to love the bombhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31557254 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31557254)
:uglystupid2:
That is...very bad news.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 23, 2015, 02:54:44 PM
Russian media learn to love the bombhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31557254 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31557254)
:uglystupid2:
That is one of the scariest things I've read in a long while.
Quote from: airboy on February 23, 2015, 08:22:17 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 23, 2015, 02:54:44 PM
Russian media learn to love the bombhttp://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31557254 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31557254)
:uglystupid2:
That is one of the scariest things I've read in a long while.
From the article
Quote"This fear of nuclear war is exaggerated, in my view," the 26-year-old Gudoshnikov concluded.
my emphasis... tells you all you need to know
and its one of the main reasons I never liked the START talks and treaties. once you get below a certain number of nukes they become a feasible weapon.
There's a reasons we maintain our nuclear triad, and no one else has one.
The world during the Cold War was more secure. It mostly reigned in buckos like this on both sides, and made them think twice before considering doing something stupid.
Stupidity is spreading on both sides.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 23, 2015, 08:29:43 PM
and its one of the main reasons I never liked the START talks and treaties. once you get below a certain number of nukes they become a feasible weapon.
In the minds of morons anyway.
not really. without the threat of MAD its just another weapon.....
Yeah, but no gnukes are good gnukes with Gary Gnukes...
Dost mine eyes deceive me? Was that a pun MD?
In February 2015, the leading independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reported[89] that it obtained documents which showed that Russia's government developed a strategy for invading and breaking up Ukraine even before Viktor Yanukovych was removed from power. The documents outline plans for annexation of Crimea and the southeastern portions of the country, including Donetsk and Luhansk, and also areas in the Kharkiv region, very closely describing the events that actually followed after Yanukovych's fall. The documents also describe plans for a public relations campaign which would seek to justify Russian aggression.[90][91][92]
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine)
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Detached_Reconnaissance_Regiment (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Detached_Reconnaissance_Regiment)
Not surprised, if true.
wHAT DO YOU THINK; SHOULD THE uKRAINE GIVE Russia a free Connection to Krim as a sign of peace and to make the life of the Crimeans easyer ?
No. Crimea doesn't belong to Russia. It legally ceded it to Ukraine in the last century. Next it will claim that Alaska belongs to Russia because the Tsar shouldn't have sold it. Besides, Russia will be building a bridge from Russia to Kerch soon enough anyways. I like the idea of everything having to enter and leave Crimea on one bridge that's easily monitored.
As a sign of peace and to make life of the Crimeans easier, the Russians should move back to Russia.
Quote from: Micha on February 27, 2015, 02:31:11 AM
wHAT DO YOU THINK; SHOULD THE uKRAINE GIVE Russia a free Connection to Krim as a sign of peace and to make the life of the Crimeans easyer ?
Lay off the vodka until your vision clears.
Ah, yes. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Night of Long Knives, anyone?
QuoteA top political nemesis of President Vladimir Putin was shot and killed early Saturday in central Moscow, Russian police said, one day before an opposition rally was scheduled to take place.
Boris Nemtsov, 55, a former deputy prime minister, was shot four times from a passing car as he was walking on a bridge just outside the Kremlin. The Kremlin said that Putin will personally oversee the investigation into his death.
The shooting potentially could create a political crisis in Russia, regardless of the motive or who was behind the shooting.
source: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/02/27/boris-nemtsov-leading-putin-critic-shot-and-killed-in-moscow/
Holy crap.
Quote from: Gusington on February 27, 2015, 07:16:27 PM
Holy crap.
Yes - quite. Putin is dangerous and a nut job. I love the bit where it says Putin will "Personally" oversee the investigation. Well - that's reassuring then - I often wonder about these kinds of people just how mad they must be to think something like that would be said and it would somehow not mean everyone thinks it is a cover up. I mean what's the friggin point of saying that ?
The point is twofold
Ensure the is no embarrassment
Ensure the peasants know what happens to those opposing the regime.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 27, 2015, 08:23:20 PM
The point is twofold
Ensure the is no embarrassment
Ensure the peasants know what happens to those opposing the regime.
So we all think Putin had him whacked ?
naaah. ex-KGB guys don't do that. ::)
Even though the killing will make Putin look bad, him being the obvious suspect, he may have felt he had no choice if this Nemtsov guy actually had the evidence he said he did of Russia's direct role in the Ukraine conflict and was ready to release it very soon.
It also may have been a faction within Putin's regime who had more to lose than just irritating him, or even a criminal element that was itself directly involved with supplying the conflict's rebel side, with unofficial Putin sanction. I'm willing to bet that in the Russia the 'roles' of the Russian Mob, the secret police, the big business sector, and of high gov't officials have overlapped so much that Russia is effectively a Mafia caliphate.
This sounds like just another day over there, not really surprised.
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 28, 2015, 07:31:15 AM
Even though the killing will make Putin look bad, him being the obvious suspect, he may have felt he had no choice if this Nemtsov guy actually had the evidence he said he did of Russia's direct role in the Ukraine conflict and was ready to release it very soon.
It also may have been a faction within Putin's regime who had more to lose than just irritating him, or even a criminal element that was itself directly involved with supplying the conflict's rebel side, with unofficial Putin sanction. I'm willing to bet that in the Russia the 'roles' of the Russian Mob, the secret police, the big business sector, and of high gov't officials have overlapped so much that Russia is effectively a Mafia caliphate.
That s probably the most succinct and accurate description of modern day Russia I seen to date.
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 28, 2015, 07:31:15 AM
I'm willing to bet that in the Russia the 'roles' of the Russian Mob, the secret police, the big business sector, and of high gov't officials have overlapped so much that Russia is effectively a Mafia caliphate.
I believe the formal term is "kleptocracy." ;)
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/01/wikileaks-cables-russia-mafia-kleptocracy (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/01/wikileaks-cables-russia-mafia-kleptocracy)
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on February 28, 2015, 10:36:39 AM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/01/wikileaks-cables-russia-mafia-kleptocracy (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/01/wikileaks-cables-russia-mafia-kleptocracy)
From the article:
QuoteHe made clear he was not amused by a US diplomat's description of him as "Batman" and President Dmitry Medvedev as "Robin". "To be honest with you, we did not suspect that this [criticism] could be made with such arrogance, with such rudeness, and you know, so unethically," Putin remarked.
Batman and Robin are heroes - Putin is not worthy of that moniker.
hes more of an aquaman because hes so fishy!
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on February 28, 2015, 11:58:11 AM
hes more of an aquaman because hes so fishy!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1081.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fj349%2Flongblade%2FSmilies%2Fgrumpy.gif&hash=29990528b9e675e000df4b27a3e87ba1169e25b3)
"Mafia Caliphate" I like that one.
Gives it that strong odor of rabid nationalism/personality cult which sets Russia apart from run-of-the-mill criminal syndicate states like Mexico.
Quote from: LongBlade on February 27, 2015, 07:14:13 PM
Ah, yes. History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. Night of Long Knives, anyone?
QuoteA top political nemesis of President Vladimir Putin was shot and killed early Saturday in central Moscow, Russian police said, one day before an opposition rally was scheduled to take place.
Boris Nemtsov, 55, a former deputy prime minister, was shot four times from a passing car as he was walking on a bridge just outside the Kremlin. The Kremlin said that Putin will personally oversee the investigation into his death.
The shooting potentially could create a political crisis in Russia, regardless of the motive or who was behind the shooting.
source: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/02/27/boris-nemtsov-leading-putin-critic-shot-and-killed-in-moscow/
Yes indeed. That's been happening over there for awhile now, just spread out over a longer period of time. Getting even bolder, shooting the guy near the Kremlin the day before a protest.
Here's a fairly lengthy AP article on it from yesterday:
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150228/eu-russia-opposition-leader-killed-9719825864.html
Sounds like the rest of the Russian opposition know exactly what's going on. Once again, Putin says he's putting his top law enforcement officers on the job of finding the killer, as if anyone will believe him this time around too. ::)
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 28, 2015, 03:22:45 PM
Gives it that strong odor of rabid nationalism/personality cult which sets Russia apart from run-of-the-mill criminal syndicate states like Mexico.
I see people calling the current leadership of Russia an Oligarchy but it's pretty clear that Putin and his old nationalist KGB connections are on the highest rung over there. He may protect the wealthy businessmen who support him but his entourage has been calling all the shots.
Quote from: Nefaro on February 28, 2015, 04:36:29 PM
Sounds like the rest of the Russian opposition know exactly what's going on. Once again, Putin says he's putting his top law enforcement officers on the job of finding the killer, as if anyone will believe him this time around too. ::)
To be fair, maybe he will. It doesn't mean that they'll "officially" find the right man as the killer, or who is behind the killing. When you think of it - a suspect killed in a shoot out would be very convenient - politically.
Quote from: Boggit on March 01, 2015, 08:11:37 PM
Quote from: Nefaro on February 28, 2015, 04:36:29 PM
Sounds like the rest of the Russian opposition know exactly what's going on. Once again, Putin says he's putting his top law enforcement officers on the job of finding the killer, as if anyone will believe him this time around too. ::)
To be fair, maybe he will. It doesn't mean that they'll "officially" find the right man as the killer, or who is behind the killing. When you think of it - a suspect killed in a shoot out would be very convenient - politically.
That would actually be good news. It would say they want to avoid escalation. If on the other hand they run with "provocation", which seemed like a bizarre jump before the investigation, it would say they mean to make an immediate example of Ukraine. Just to prove they are ready to end the community of nations without hesitation.
the whole damn thing is brinksmanship and the sitting President is not the person to play that game.
Merkel seems to be all "fuck you" about it.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 02, 2015, 02:41:58 AM
the whole damn thing is brinksmanship and the sitting President is not the person to play that game.
Merkel seems to be all "fuck you" about it.
And rightfully so.
Russia has all this natural gas with which to bargain. The US has it, too, but Obama has too much enviro in him to support the US becoming a major energy exporter. "With friends like that..."
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 28, 2015, 07:31:15 AM
Even though the killing will make Putin look bad, him being the obvious suspect, he may have felt he had no choice if this Nemtsov guy actually had the evidence he said he did of Russia's direct role in the Ukraine conflict and was ready to release it very soon.
It also may have been a faction within Putin's regime who had more to lose than just irritating him, or even a criminal element that was itself directly involved with supplying the conflict's rebel side, with unofficial Putin sanction. I'm willing to bet that in the Russia the 'roles' of the Russian Mob, the secret police, the big business sector, and of high gov't officials have overlapped so much that Russia is effectively a Mafia caliphate.
some commentary from on the ground in Russia
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/28/boris-nemtsov-death-fear-for-the-future-of-russians
Quote from: bayonetbrant on March 02, 2015, 11:44:12 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 28, 2015, 07:31:15 AM
Even though the killing will make Putin look bad, him being the obvious suspect, he may have felt he had no choice if this Nemtsov guy actually had the evidence he said he did of Russia's direct role in the Ukraine conflict and was ready to release it very soon.
It also may have been a faction within Putin's regime who had more to lose than just irritating him, or even a criminal element that was itself directly involved with supplying the conflict's rebel side, with unofficial Putin sanction. I'm willing to bet that in the Russia the 'roles' of the Russian Mob, the secret police, the big business sector, and of high gov't officials have overlapped so much that Russia is effectively a Mafia caliphate.
some commentary from on the ground in Russia
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/28/boris-nemtsov-death-fear-for-the-future-of-russians
Yikes. Going back to the 30s? It's difficult to contemplate.
Oy.
There's a reason so many historical strategy games concentrate on Europe, the Med, and western Asia (including the Middle East). That area is just straight-up the mother of war, and has enough resources of various kinds to make the wars especially dangerous.
We look at the Cold War outcome of WW2, like it's weird for the area to return to "the 30s". But "the 30s" and "the 10s", etc., are nothing more or other than the natural state of society in that 1/8th of the planet since time eonian.
We aren't just going back to the 30s. For all practical purposes, we're going back to the rise of European nation-states per se -- at least as far back as the late 1700s, if not earlier (due to the shift from feudalism previously).
You are just all about the rainbows and unicorns today.
Ok, get a load of this:
Quote
The ancestry of Vladimir Putin has been described as a mystery with no records surviving of any ancestors of any people with the surname "Putin" beyond his grandfather Spiridon Ivanovich. His autobiography, Ot Pervogo Litsa (English: In the First Person),[25] which is based on Putin's interviews, speaks of humble beginnings, including early years in a communal apartment, shared by several families, in Leningrad. Two Russian journalists speculate on a newspaper article that Putin's ancestry might be linked to Putyanin clan, "one of the oldest clans in the Russian history", based on pretended physical similarities to a 13th-century individual, lack of online sources linked to the family name Putin and the similarity of its spelling with that clan's name.[31]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin
Which leads us to this:
Quote
Putyatin (Russian: Путятин), also romanized Poutiatine, Putjatin, Putiatin, is a Rurikid family with princely and noble lines. They branched from the dukes of the autonomous principality of Drutsk, sometime in mid-15th century.
Notable figures of the princely family:
Prince Nikolai Putyatin, Russian philanthropist and philosopher.
Duke Mikiitta Iivananpoika Putjatin settled after mid-15th century to the service of Moscow and received estates from Ivan III
Duke Taavetti Mikiitanpoika Putjatin held in the beginning of the 16th century a remarkable bunch of landed estates in Karelia of Käkisalmi in eastern Finland. He is ancestor of all the presently living members of the princely family of Putjatin. The taxation register of Vatja from the year 1500 lists several of his holdings.
Duke Sergei Putjatin, the second husband of Grand Duchess Maria Pavlovna the younger (1890–1958)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putyatin_(family)
Which then leads us to this:
Quote
The Rurik dynasty or Rurikids (Russian: Рю́риковичи, Ukrainian: Рю́риковичі, Belarusian: Ру́рыковичи) was a dynasty founded by the Varangian[1] prince Rurik, who established himself in Novgorod around the year 862 AD.[2] The Rurikids were the ruling dynasty of Kievan Rus' (after 862), the successor principalities of Galicia-Volhynia (after 1199), Chernigov, Vladimir-Suzdal, and the Grand Duchy of Moscow, and the founders of the Tsardom of Russia. They ruled until 1598 and the Time of Troubles, following which they were succeeded by the Romanovs. They are one of Europe's oldest royal houses, with numerous existing cadet branches.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rurik_dynasty
Sooo, it looks to me like someone could be building a case to crown Czar Vladimir IV.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F2%2F25%2FVladimir_Putin_inauguration_7_May_2012-10.jpeg&hash=d8ec9a4acb15580dbbc0c5d64ad80720db595150)
Quote from: Centurion40 on March 03, 2015, 03:44:35 PM
Quote
Putyatin (Russian: Путятин), also romanized Poutiatine, Putjatin, Putiatin, is a Rurikid family with princely and noble lines. They branched from the dukes of the autonomous principality of Drutsk, sometime in mid-15th century.
They missed the spelling of the most likely candidate: Poutine
Quote from: LongBlade on March 03, 2015, 04:15:20 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on March 03, 2015, 03:44:35 PM
Quote
Putyatin (Russian: Путятин), also romanized Poutiatine, Putjatin, Putiatin, is a Rurikid family with princely and noble lines. They branched from the dukes of the autonomous principality of Drutsk, sometime in mid-15th century.
They missed the spelling of the most likely candidate: Poutine
Thanks. You just ruined Poutine.
Quote from: mirth on March 03, 2015, 04:18:34 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on March 03, 2015, 04:15:20 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on March 03, 2015, 03:44:35 PM
Quote
Putyatin (Russian: Путятин), also romanized Poutiatine, Putjatin, Putiatin, is a Rurikid family with princely and noble lines. They branched from the dukes of the autonomous principality of Drutsk, sometime in mid-15th century.
They missed the spelling of the most likely candidate: Poutine
Thanks. You just ruined Poutine.
In Soviet Russia Putin ruin Poutine!
He is Kenyan.
Does he have any kids? Could be a short dynasty otherwise.
^Punny!
Anyway I thought Putin = Angry Iron Dwarf
QuoteThe ancestry of Vladimir Putin has been described as a mystery with no records surviving of any ancestors of any people with the surname "Putin" beyond his grandfather Spiridon Ivanovich. His autobiography, Ot Pervogo Litsa (English: In the First Dumbass (not Dumas)[12]),[25] which is based on Putin's interviews, speaks of humble beginnings, including early years in a communal apartment, shared by several families, in Leningrad. Two Russian journalists speculate on a newspaper article that Putin's ancestry might be linked to Poutine clan, "one of the oldest clans in the Russian history", based on pretended physical similarities to a 13th-century individual, lack of online sources linked to the family name Putin and the similarity of its spelling with that clan's name.[31]
QuotePutyatin (Russian: Путятин), also romanized Poutiatine, Putjatin, Dobby, is an obscure peasant family with pretentious claims to its eastern neighbor's compost heap. They branched from the peasants of the autonomous southern farm of of Putin-Puking, sometime in mid-15th century.
Notable figures of the obscure family:
Nikolai Putinback, Russian alcoholic and philanderer.
Mikiitta Iivananpoika Putyerjamasonsettled after mid-15th century to the service of Moscow and received estates from a farm they took by force.
Duke Taavetti Mikiitanpoika Putjatin held in the beginning of the 16th century a remarkable bunch of landed estates in Karelia of Käkisalmi in eastern Finland. He is ancestor of all the presently living members of the princely family of Poutine. The taxation register of Vatja from the year 1500 lists several of his hovels.
Duke Sergei Poutine, the second husband of Grand Duchess Maria Pavlovna the younger (1890–1958)
Also notable are the Poutines of the southeasterly steppes, who are principally known for their toxic mix of an unhealthy desire to eat from a knife, whistling indoors, (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_traditions_and_superstitions) hyperactive paranoia, Napoleon complex, and potato vodka, which turns their brains into cheese curds and their dingdongs into limp, undercooked pomme frites.[21]
Where are those quotes from?
More fallout from us supporting the Muslim Brotherhood over Mubarak:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-egypt-just-got-even-222300713.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-egypt-just-got-even-222300713.html)
Can't say I blame the Egyptians under the circumstances. But they should know these kind of relationships with Russia are like being a battered wife usually.
Does that mean we get a refund on all the hardware and cash we gave Egypt?
Quote from: Staggerwing on March 04, 2015, 06:03:02 AM
Where are those quotes from?
One of the best and most respected authorities on Russian history: Wikilongbladia
I thought that was Wikijasonprattia?
Quote from: LongBlade on March 02, 2015, 03:34:28 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on March 02, 2015, 11:44:12 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 28, 2015, 07:31:15 AM
Even though the killing will make Putin look bad, him being the obvious suspect, he may have felt he had no choice if this Nemtsov guy actually had the evidence he said he did of Russia's direct role in the Ukraine conflict and was ready to release it very soon.
It also may have been a faction within Putin's regime who had more to lose than just irritating him, or even a criminal element that was itself directly involved with supplying the conflict's rebel side, with unofficial Putin sanction. I'm willing to bet that in the Russia the 'roles' of the Russian Mob, the secret police, the big business sector, and of high gov't officials have overlapped so much that Russia is effectively a Mafia caliphate.
some commentary from on the ground in Russia
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/28/boris-nemtsov-death-fear-for-the-future-of-russians
Yikes. Going back to the 30s? It's difficult to contemplate.
I think we are there already.
Quote from: pawelj on March 05, 2015, 12:02:49 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on March 02, 2015, 03:34:28 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on March 02, 2015, 11:44:12 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 28, 2015, 07:31:15 AM
Even though the killing will make Putin look bad, him being the obvious suspect, he may have felt he had no choice if this Nemtsov guy actually had the evidence he said he did of Russia's direct role in the Ukraine conflict and was ready to release it very soon.
It also may have been a faction within Putin's regime who had more to lose than just irritating him, or even a criminal element that was itself directly involved with supplying the conflict's rebel side, with unofficial Putin sanction. I'm willing to bet that in the Russia the 'roles' of the Russian Mob, the secret police, the big business sector, and of high gov't officials have overlapped so much that Russia is effectively a Mafia caliphate.
some commentary from on the ground in Russia
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/28/boris-nemtsov-death-fear-for-the-future-of-russians
Yikes. Going back to the 30s? It's difficult to contemplate.
I think we are there already.
Putin needs to do some military purges to convince me.
He's managed to purge his administration and parliament of sense, reason, and common sense. Military purges and civilian forced collectivization are likely on the near horizon.
Even Pope of the Orthodox church is probably on the table. The best way to claim ultimate power is to pretend you are the hand of God.
Quote from: LongBlade on March 05, 2015, 12:23:16 PM
Quote from: pawelj on March 05, 2015, 12:02:49 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on March 02, 2015, 03:34:28 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on March 02, 2015, 11:44:12 AM
Quote from: Staggerwing on February 28, 2015, 07:31:15 AM
Even though the killing will make Putin look bad, him being the obvious suspect, he may have felt he had no choice if this Nemtsov guy actually had the evidence he said he did of Russia's direct role in the Ukraine conflict and was ready to release it very soon.
It also may have been a faction within Putin's regime who had more to lose than just irritating him, or even a criminal element that was itself directly involved with supplying the conflict's rebel side, with unofficial Putin sanction. I'm willing to bet that in the Russia the 'roles' of the Russian Mob, the secret police, the big business sector, and of high gov't officials have overlapped so much that Russia is effectively a Mafia caliphate.
some commentary from on the ground in Russia
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/28/boris-nemtsov-death-fear-for-the-future-of-russians
Yikes. Going back to the 30s? It's difficult to contemplate.
I think we are there already.
Putin needs to do some military purges to convince me.
Today's Audible daily deal is about KGB purges $3.95
Spymaster: Startling Cold War Revelations of a Soviet KGB Chiefhttp://www.audible.com/pd/History/Spymaster-Audiobook/B00GFZZY50#publisher-summary
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on March 05, 2015, 12:43:10 PM
He's managed to purge his administration and parliament of sense, reason, and common sense. Military purges and civilian forced collectivization are likely on the near horizon.
This explains why he needs Ukraine. Without, how will he starve to death millions.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on March 04, 2015, 07:45:17 AM
More fallout from us supporting the Muslim Brotherhood over Mubarak:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-egypt-just-got-even-222300713.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-egypt-just-got-even-222300713.html)
Can't say I blame the Egyptians under the circumstances. But they should know these kind of relationships with Russia are like being a battered wife usually.
Well, I guess Israel will be taking procession of the Sinai Peninsula again. Maybe this time they'll keep it.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 03, 2015, 03:22:29 PM
You are just all about the rainbows and unicorns today.
>:D I blame O'Reilly's
Killing Patton for my mood.
Israel and Egypt are fine with each other. Egypt seems to have learned enough during the 70s.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 05, 2015, 01:23:42 PM
Even Pope Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox church is probably on the table. The best way to claim ultimate power is to pretend you are the hand of God.
Sorry, but to clarify. The rest of the orthodox sects have their own heads.
Quote from: endfire79 on March 05, 2015, 09:39:15 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 05, 2015, 01:23:42 PM
Even Pope Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox church is probably on the table. The best way to claim ultimate power is to pretend you are the hand of God.
Sorry, but to clarify. The rest of the orthodox sects have their own heads.
OK.
Maybe it will be the crowning of the Decrepit Degenerate Dwarf Rasputin II
im ok with that, dwarves might get offended though ;)
Gus is going to be pissed off.
Gnome Gus has no reason to be pissed.
Back on topic
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2015/02/ukraine-independence-russian-aggression/ukrainereport_february2015_final.pdf
This is making rounds in Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIviwK1MzJs&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIviwK1MzJs&feature=youtu.be)
It is in Russian but you should get the gist.
Basically it says how great things were when the Russians/Soviets were in charge Central Asia, Ukraine and the Baltics. How they beat all interventions and now they do not want freedom or democracy. At the and he says that others should be afraid.
ya well good luck achieving that glory with a GDP thats lower then Italy's. :2funny:
Quote from: pawelj on March 06, 2015, 09:07:09 AM
This is making rounds in Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIviwK1MzJs&feature=youtu.be (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIviwK1MzJs&feature=youtu.be)
It is in Russian but you should get the gist.
Basically it says how great things were when the Russians/Soviets were in charge Central Asia, Ukraine and the Baltics. How they beat all interventions and now they do not want freedom or democracy. At the and he says that others should be afraid.
The BBC did an article on this propaganda piece. http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-31715389
There is a link to the video with English subtitles in the first paragraph. Don't know how one graphic managed to survive on youtube for so long.
So where is your family from in Poland, Pawel? One of my grandfathers spent five years in Poland as a guest of some unwelcome visitors that your country had a while back.
But enough chit-chat, we should all turn our attention back to our same sex partners.
Pardon?
I think hes referring to the media distraction of gay marriage as opposed to covering international affairs.
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 06, 2015, 10:16:19 AM
But enough chit-chat, we should all turn our attention back to our same sex partners.
LOL
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 06, 2015, 11:14:31 AM
I think hes referring to the media distraction of gay marriage as opposed to covering international affairs.
Or yours,
Gus', and
mirth's...whatever it is you want to call it. ???
I'm referring to the fact that Russian news is painting the West as corrupted by accepting homosexuality. The "I Occupier" video decries Western values and briefly shows a penis pacifier, and an obscene cartoon which I won't describe.
There was also an outrage a few weeks ago over a Western boy's room , which a Russian news channel doctored to depict with crude homosexual cartoon posters replacing dump trucks. Fortunately, or unfortunately, I can't pin down a link with this.
Personally, I don't care what someone does consensually in their own bedrooms, but I don't give a damn for what is being implied whether or not it is solely for domestic Russian consumption or not.
Pardon indeed, Gus. And thanks for the kind words Longblade and Starfury.
Here we go, on Canuckistan Broadcasting Corp. http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/ID/2651997771/
Mat you Spetsial Correspondent!
I typically leave the room when the penis pacifier comes up.
Quote from: Gusington on March 06, 2015, 03:53:00 PM
I typically leave the room when the penis pacifier comes up.
With or without the pacifier?
Quote from: Gusington on March 06, 2015, 03:53:00 PM
I typically leave the room when the penis pacifier comes up.
lies
I swear.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.westernmorningnews.co.uk%2Fimages%2Flocalworld%2Fugc-images%2F276272%2FArticle%2Fimages%2F26113479%2F9588225-large.jpg&hash=5cda0ef075f9d5782484ffce9e8c58d6ee9e4ed5)
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 07, 2015, 02:42:43 AM
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.westernmorningnews.co.uk%2Fimages%2Flocalworld%2Fugc-images%2F276272%2FArticle%2Fimages%2F26113479%2F9588225-large.jpg&hash=5cda0ef075f9d5782484ffce9e8c58d6ee9e4ed5)
Heh. I had seen the Putin one, but not with the stormtrooper.
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 06, 2015, 02:34:41 PM
Here we go, on Canuckistan Broadcasting Corp. http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/ID/2651997771/
Mat you Spetsial Correspondent!
The Russkies are just mad 'cause his dad's a Steelers fan. They figure that Pittsburgh is really a worker's paradise founded by Russian explorer Dmitri Pittsov, and that the Pengiuns are a farm team of the Magnitogorsk "Metallurg" of the KHL.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fen%2Fthumb%2F2%2F2e%2FMetallurg_Magnitogorsk_Logo.svg%2F240px-Metallurg_Magnitogorsk_Logo.svg.png&hash=a965c4520ac9853b8391d22cb8532cf62d1dea69)
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/3000-us-troops-head-eastern-europe-exercises-29501996
About 3,000 U.S. soldiers from the Georgia-based 3rd Infantry Division will deploy to Eastern Europe beginning next week, to conduct training exercises with forces from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the Pentagon said Monday.
The deployment is part of an ongoing U.S. military troop rotation aimed at bolstering support for NATO allies who are worried about escalating aggression by Russia.
Army Col. Steve Warren told reporters that about 750 U.S. military tanks, helicopters, and other vehicles and equipment arrived in Riga, Latvia, on Monday, as part of the deployment. Much of the heavy equipment is expected to stay in the region, as the U.S. continues to rotate troops in and out of the Baltics.
The Defense Department has announced plans to reduce its overall permanent basing in Europe. But at the same time, it is ramping up its program to send military units on short-term deployments across Europe for training and exercises. Over the past year, the U.S. has sent a variety of troops, including special operations forces, to exercises and training program in Eastern Europe, including Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
Those nations are particularly concerned about potential threats from Russia in the wake of Moscow's annexation of Crimea and the ongoing fighting between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in the eastern part of the country.
The 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division soldiers, based at Fort Stewart, will take over as the 2nd Cavalry Regiment leaves this month. The brigade is expected to be in the region for military exercises for about three months.
yeah, but 1/3 MECH ain't falling in on 2 ACR's gear. There's pretty much no one out there falling in on 2 ACR's equipment set, since they're the only Stryker-based ACR we have.
Britain's secret weapon: gossip.
QuoteBritain may broadcast the financial secrets of Russia's ruling elite as part of the information war against the Putin regime, the Foreign Secretary has indicated.
Philip Hammond said he was interested by the idea of publicising the wealth of the Russian president's inner circle in order to embarrass them in front of their people, as part of the response to the ongoing incursion into eastern Ukraine.
source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11461163/Britain-may-broadcast-Putins-financial-secrets-to-Russian-people.html
^ Whatever works, I say. It's not like it'd be the first time the UK has used unconventional (but effective) weapons/tactics.
Ha!
http://www.headlineshirts.net/russia-t-shirt.html#.VQDI2PnT7-k
Interesting white paper on the Russian military begining to wear down over the Ukraine conflict.
A couple of things stood out for me
QuoteA further example of such actions is the deployment of the Russian Ministry
of the Interior's Dzerzhinskiy Division in the role of 'barrier squads' – punitive
action, anti-retreat troops – behind the lines of rebels and Russian regulars.
This has been reported at both the northern part of the rebel-controlled
territory near Debaltseve and near Mariupol on the southern operational
axis. On five identifiable occasions, detachments of the Dzerzhinskiy Division
have undertaken punitive action against Russian regulars; rebels have also
reported punitive actions by the Dzerzhiskiy Division against them
Can you say Hello Commissar!
And
QuoteUnder such circumstances, one cannot exclude the possibility that the
Kremlin might opt to capitalise upon its relatively advantageous position –
while it still exists – over a Ukrainian military that is currently weakened by its
forced retreat from the Debaltseve area, in which it took substantial losses of
equipment and probably manpower. This would also solidify the rebels' new
territorial gains. The large industrial centre and seaport of Mariupol would
be the most likely target.
I sense a summer offensive when the spring rasputitsa is over
https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/201503_BP_Russian_Forces_in_Ukraine_FINAL.pdf
I can't believe they still use tactics like that. I shouldn't be surprised, I guess...it's still Russia.
Quote from: Con on March 11, 2015, 06:51:41 PM
Interesting white paper on the Russian military begining to wear down over the Ukraine conflict.
A couple of things stood out for me
QuoteA further example of such actions is the deployment of the Russian Ministry
of the Interior's Dzerzhinskiy Division in the role of 'barrier squads' – punitive
action, anti-retreat troops – behind the lines of rebels and Russian regulars.
This has been reported at both the northern part of the rebel-controlled
territory near Debaltseve and near Mariupol on the southern operational
axis. On five identifiable occasions, detachments of the Dzerzhinskiy Division
have undertaken punitive action against Russian regulars; rebels have also
reported punitive actions by the Dzerzhiskiy Division against them
Can you say Hello Commissar!
And
QuoteUnder such circumstances, one cannot exclude the possibility that the
Kremlin might opt to capitalise upon its relatively advantageous position –
while it still exists – over a Ukrainian military that is currently weakened by its
forced retreat from the Debaltseve area, in which it took substantial losses of
equipment and probably manpower. This would also solidify the rebels' new
territorial gains. The large industrial centre and seaport of Mariupol would
be the most likely target.
I sense a summer offensive when the spring rasputitsa is over
https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/201503_BP_Russian_Forces_in_Ukraine_FINAL.pdf
Good stuff. Thanks Con.
Yes, very good stuff.
The Gerasimov Doctrine of Ambiguous Warfare, eh? It would be interesting to find more information on this.
Huffington Post provides a translation of key portions of General Gerasimov's article from February 2013.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-coalson/valery-gerasimov-putin-ukraine_b_5748480.html
QuoteThe experience of military conflicts -- including those connected with the so-called colored revolutions in north Africa and the Middle East -- confirm that a perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a web of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war.
At the same site they have this, which is better,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shlomo-benami/west-stop-putin_b_6839554.html?utm_hp_ref=world
the gerasimov document is already looked at here
http://grogheads.com/forums/index.php?topic=12835.0
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 12, 2015, 03:49:31 PM
Huffington Post provides a translation of key portions of General Gerasimov's article from February 2013.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-coalson/valery-gerasimov-putin-ukraine_b_5748480.html
QuoteThe experience of military conflicts -- including those connected with the so-called colored revolutions in north Africa and the Middle East -- confirm that a perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a web of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war.
I'm not sure I'd describe a North African or Middle Eastern totalitarian dictatorship as a "perfectly thriving state," but I guess some folks' mileage may vary.
Quote from: LongBlade on March 12, 2015, 10:46:09 PM
Quote from: Uberhaus on March 12, 2015, 03:49:31 PM
Huffington Post provides a translation of key portions of General Gerasimov's article from February 2013.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-coalson/valery-gerasimov-putin-ukraine_b_5748480.html
QuoteThe experience of military conflicts -- including those connected with the so-called colored revolutions in north Africa and the Middle East -- confirm that a perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a web of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war.
I'm not sure I'd describe a North African or Middle Eastern totalitarian dictatorship as a "perfectly thriving state," but I guess some folks' mileage may vary.
It speaks to the shithole he lives in.
Putin may be AWOL...folks are wondering where he is.
QuoteIt was the question preoccupying Moscow and much of Russia on Friday, as speculation mounted about why President Vladimir V. Putin had not been seen in public since last week.
He canceled a trip to Kazakhstan; postponed a treaty signing with representatives from South Ossetia who were reportedly told not to bother to come to Moscow; and, unusually, was absent from a meeting of top officials from the F.S.B., Russia's domestic intelligence service.
The last confirmed public sighting was at a meeting with Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy on March 5 — although the Kremlin would have citizens think otherwise.
Given that the Kremlin borrows all manner of items from the Soviet playbook these days, there appeared to be an attempt to doctor the president's timetable to show that all was well.
source: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/14/world/europe/russia-putin-seen-in-public.html?_r=1
did his reptilians overlords beam him up for a battery replacement?
Perhaps there is a credible hit threat?
I'm thinking there may be some buyers' remorse on Crimea and Ukraine.
He is planning his purges from his bunker.
http://www.businessinsider.com/whats-happening-to-putin-2015-3
Im sure a photo will show up soon. the Russians would never edit or forge one of those. ::)
He's right here next to me doing vodka shots and writing a review of Panthers in the Fog.
Quote from: Gusington on March 13, 2015, 02:40:01 PM
He's right here next to me doing vodka shots and writing a review of Panthers in the Fog.
About time someone wrote that friggin review.
Quote from: Gusington on March 13, 2015, 02:40:01 PM
He's right here next to me doing vodka shots and writing a review of Panthers in the Fog.
and they're both about the same height, which is why they're the only 2 guys using booster seats at the bar
Quote from: LongBlade on March 13, 2015, 08:48:25 AM
Putin may be AWOL...folks are wondering where he is.
QuoteIt was the question preoccupying Moscow and much of Russia on Friday, as speculation mounted about why President Vladimir V. Putin had not been seen in public since last week.
He canceled a trip to Kazakhstan; postponed a treaty signing with representatives from South Ossetia who were reportedly told not to bother to come to Moscow; and, unusually, was absent from a meeting of top officials from the F.S.B., Russia's domestic intelligence service.
The last confirmed public sighting was at a meeting with Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy on March 5 — although the Kremlin would have citizens think otherwise.
Given that the Kremlin borrows all manner of items from the Soviet playbook these days, there appeared to be an attempt to doctor the president's timetable to show that all was well.
source: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/14/world/europe/russia-putin-seen-in-public.html?_r=1
Maybe Putin had a heart attack and died.
we're not that lucky
Either Putin is dealing with a palace coup or he is deeply involved with the planning of a major escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Maybe a division of Russian 'volunteers' is about to roll through Mariupol and then keep heading for the north side of the Crimean land bridge.
He may have the flu.
Some news sites are saying the gymnast is having his spawn.
Great. Now we will have Vladimir the Second waiting in the wings. There's nothing like building an empire for your progeny to fire up a megalomaniac like Putin.
No doubt he will train the bastard from a young age to be completely ruthless. Rasputin the destroyer.
Quote from: Staggerwing on March 13, 2015, 06:37:35 PM
Either Putin is dealing with a palace coup or he is deeply involved with the planning of a major escalation of the Ukraine conflict.
Probably the latter.
Must be reaching Stage 4 or 5 transition period by now, in the Hitler playbook.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/03/13/where-is-vladimir-putin-tournament-edition/
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 14, 2015, 10:52:41 AMSome news sites are saying the gymnast is having his spawn.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11471579/Vladimir-Putins-girlfriend-has-given-birth.html
I love this quote from the article
In one comment, a Russian Internet user applied the principles of Kremlinology to conclude that "Putin cannot be dead. It is not in Putin's interests."
Quote from: bayonetbrant on March 14, 2015, 03:47:34 PM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 14, 2015, 10:52:41 AMSome news sites are saying the gymnast is having his spawn.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11471579/Vladimir-Putins-girlfriend-has-given-birth.html
I love this quote from the article
In one comment, a Russian Internet user applied the principles of Kremlinology to conclude that "Putin cannot be dead. It is not in Putin's interests."
Also from the article:
Quote
"In 2008, a Russian tabloid newspaper was closed down by its owner after it ran a story on the rumoured relationship."
Even Russian tabloids receive the Putin treatment over there. I wonder if the owner has been seen lately. ???
What an idiot. Now he is saying he was ready to go on nuclear alert.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31899680
That lacks credibility.
Holy crap.
Biggs is right. This was put out for a reason, but it isn't because he was reaching for the launch codes.
Perhaps his hold is more tenuous than we have speculated?
He still has not been seen?
He reappeared- http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31904882
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 15, 2015, 08:43:54 PM
What an idiot. Now he is saying he was ready to go on nuclear alert.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31899680
That lacks credibility.
Isn't that a non-statement? Doesn't he always have to be ready to put the nuke forces on alert? Isn't that just part of his day-to-day job as president?
Hmmm. Probably the flu. Clearly not lead poisoning.
Vampire stake would have been nice.
^Ha!
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 15, 2015, 08:43:54 PM
What an idiot. Now he is saying he was ready to go on nuclear alert.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31899680
That lacks credibility.
Quote from: Article
He also said Russians in Crimea were in danger before Russia annexed it.
Hrmmm...
Sounds familiar, doesn't it?
and yet our president still does nothing about this yearly invasion of Canadistanians!
Can't we just let Canada have Florida?
theyre gonna have to fight Cuba for it.
Everybody wants America's wang.
HA 'wang'
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 16, 2015, 01:46:16 PM
theyre gonna have to fight Cuba for it.
I wonder who would have the most partisans? If we allied with the Brits, we could take central Florida, and maybe the Gulf Coast from Naples north. We might lose everything north of Gainesville to Georgia. Certainly everything east of the Everglades, up to Jupiter (save from any help from Burt Reynold's ghost, and yeah, I know that he's still alive) we'd lose to the Cubans.
WOLVERINES! WOLVERINES!
Meanwhile back to Putin -- who exactly was he supposed to be considering a nuclear alert over? Pakistan? North Korea??
That's certainly for internal consumption. He's appealing to the principle that once you demonstrate to your own people there's nothing too ridiculously tyrannical to be untrue, anything you charge your opponents with, directly or by innuendo, sounds plausible.
You have to understand how the Russians think about their nuclear arsenal. We view ours as a necessary evil. It's more complicated with them. They're weak, and nukes are the one thing that can force the rest of the world to pay attention to their strategic priorities, which include keeping western and Islamic armies as far from their heartland as possible (an imperative with some pretty compelling historical basis). It's a source of national pride.
NATO ships currently on anti-Russia* maneuvers
http://www.businessinsider.com/here-are-all-the-nato-military-ships-currently-conducting-manoeuvres-on-russias-doorstep-2015-3#the-standing-nato-maritime-group-two-sngm2-is-currently-on-operations-in-the-black-sea-conducting-training-exercises-including-simulated-anti-air-and-anti-submarine-warfare-exercises-1
* truth in advertising
'Anti-Soviet' sounds more homey.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/back-to-the-future-in-putins-europe/2015/03/17/6c8dbb94-cce9-11e4-8c54-ffb5ba6f2f69_story.html
Finally people seem to be admitting that this will be a serious test of NATO.
Is a motley collection of 30+ year-old ships the best NATO can do? Or is it just a diversion?
a very small scale local exercise IMO.
if we really wanted to piss off putin we would exercise a CVBG in the Black Sea. :knuppel2:
I also think the russian exercise is a bit of a false flag. theyve got to be counting everything on the water including coastal patrol craft to come with 40+ ships. they simply dont have that many blue water hulls in operation right now.
yup, some serious barrel scrapping over there.
http://russianships.info/eng/today/
those numbers are pretty much cross referenced and the same across 5 sites including FAS.
Next, maybe they'll take one of the Caspian Sea Monsters out of mothballs.
Quote from: Staggerwing on March 18, 2015, 06:34:30 AM
Next, maybe they'll take one of the Caspian Sea Monsters out of mothballs.
Why? To watch it crash and explode?
Quote from: Nefaro on March 19, 2015, 08:57:33 PM
Quote from: Staggerwing on March 18, 2015, 06:34:30 AM
Next, maybe they'll take one of the Caspian Sea Monsters out of mothballs.
Why? To watch it crash and explode?
It's kinda a maritime tradition with them.
If it isn't made of black silicone and runs on batteries, tech isn't Star's strong suit.
^-^
Story about Ukrainian Christian Volunteer Militia
Quote from: jomni on March 19, 2015, 10:55:39 PM
Story about Ukrainian Christian Volunteer Militia
Link?
The US should not just give them any weapons to Ukraine. Since Russia violated the Budapest agreement which resulted in Ukraine giving up nukes, US should give Ukraine the nukes they gave up. That would put the fear into Putin.
One thing the world does NOT need more of is unstable countries with nuclear weapons.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on March 20, 2015, 10:28:17 AM
One thing the world does NOT need more of is unstable countries with nuclear weapons.
+1
Ukraine is already tons in debt, and unstable. I don't think nukes will make anything better.
Giving nukes back to Ukraine now would only enrage the Russians and probably lead to all out war.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on March 20, 2015, 10:28:17 AM
One thing the world does NOT need more of is unstable countries with nuclear weapons.
+10^e
Quote from: Centurion40 on March 13, 2015, 09:34:13 AM
Perhaps there is a credible hit threat?
A little late, but give the man a see-gar!
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/putin-just-made-a-huge-decision-that-may-explain-his-strange-disappearance-2015-3
Kadyrov is most likely behind the Politkovskaya murder and others. Most importantly men very close to him were arrested for the Nemtsov murder.
Quote from: pawelj on March 20, 2015, 09:26:46 AM
The US should not just give them any weapons to Ukraine. Since Russia violated the Budapest agreement which resulted in Ukraine giving up nukes, US should give Ukraine the nukes they gave up. That would put the fear into Putin.
No, Poland should send the young Ukranian men back. Don't know how much fear that will put into Putin though?
QuoteLately it's been their feet unfortunately. Five ministers of defense, many retired generals, 6,000 regular troops at the start of the conflict, the rest conscripts and dedicated volunteers including former Afghan veterans. Go figure. A truce and giving up on retaking their territory is about the only way out. Many young are dodging draft registration and getting temp jobs in Poland to stay low.
Ukraine has managed to field about 65,000 military personnel in Eastern Ukraine, about half regular Army and the rest, volunteers, this out of a country of about 44 million people, a pretty pathetic number. During the US civil war, the South had a white population of about 9,000,000, yet managed to field over 1.2 million men, see the difference, especially considering the lack of any industrial infrastructure in the Confederacy. In the Russo-Finnish war, Finland with a population of 2,000,000 deployed 200,000 men or 10% of the population. The USA during WWII deployed about 8.8 million out of 150 million population or about 7% of the population.
Ukraine's total military size as of today, is less than one half of one percent of the total population, yet their country is being invaded. It's easy to make AK rifles, you can build the receiver out of sheet metal in a garage, Pakistanis manage to build complete AK's with hand tools in a hut. Even Molotov cocktails are effective, but you need people, and just 65,000 out of a country of 44,000,000 doesn't suggest much enthusiasm for defending Ukraine.
The truth seems that a great majority of Ukrainians don't feel that Ukraine is worth fighting for (based on deeds and not words).
From http://forums.gamesquad.com/showthread.php?121550-How-can-the-Ukraines-destroy-all-those-ex-russion-T-72s&p=1736790#post1736790
Ray was working in Ukraine until just recently.
Quote from: Gusington on March 20, 2015, 01:01:05 PM
Giving nukes back to Ukraine now would only enrage the Russians and probably lead to all out war.
The Russians should be worried about enraging us. To win in this game you have to out crazy the crazy. Appeasement will only get you exactly what you are trying to avoid.
There is still time to avoid more serious confrontation, but it required serious Russian bleeding.
The Russian nuclear threats against Denmark are showing what direction things will go if unchecked.
If the west were to decide to hand over nukes to Ukraine in their current situation, what is to stop Russia from giving nukes (in one form or another) to other unstable countries in Europe? (e.g. Greece, Cyprus, you name it).
Quote from: endfire79 on March 22, 2015, 11:07:31 AM
If the west were to decide to hand over nukes to Ukraine in their current situation, what is to stop Russia from giving nukes (in one form or another) to other unstable countries in Europe? (e.g. Greece, Cyprus, you name it).
Who's to say that Russia hasn't already done that if it would be to Russia's advantage.
We already bought Russia's spare and "lost" nuke.
Quote from: Staggerwing on March 20, 2015, 05:28:47 AM
Quote from: jomni on March 19, 2015, 10:55:39 PM
Story about Ukrainian Christian Volunteer Militia
Link?
Big oops. Forgot the link.
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/03/18/ukraine-part-3/
(https://prod01-cdn02.cdn.firstlook.org/wp-uploads/sites/1/2015/03/poster2-540x726.jpg)
Russian media's point of view.
http://rt.com/news/242453-ukraine-extremist-christian-taliban/
Seems like Putin's Russia is having this effect.
"Since Russia began invading and trying to annex parts of Ukraine in 2014 there has been a substantial shift in population. Since early 2014 nearly two million people have left Russia.
More than half these were Westerners (including many from East European countries) working in Russia, providing skills that Russia did not have. The rest were Russians, most of them highly educated and with similar skills to the departing Westerners. What all these migrants had in common was a desire to get away from an increasingly authoritarian, intolerant and economically disastrous Russian government. "
http://www.strategypage.com/%5Chtmw%5Chtwin%5Carticles%5C20150319.aspx (http://www.strategypage.com/%5Chtmw%5Chtwin%5Carticles%5C20150319.aspx)
Quote from: WallysWorld on March 25, 2015, 04:02:13 PM
Seems like Putin's Russia is having this effect.
"Since Russia began invading and trying to annex parts of Ukraine in 2014 there has been a substantial shift in population. Since early 2014 nearly two million people have left Russia.
More than half these were Westerners (including many from East European countries) working in Russia, providing skills that Russia did not have. The rest were Russians, most of them highly educated and with similar skills to the departing Westerners. What all these migrants had in common was a desire to get away from an increasingly authoritarian, intolerant and economically disastrous Russian government. "
http://www.strategypage.com/%5Chtmw%5Chtwin%5Carticles%5C20150319.aspx (http://www.strategypage.com/%5Chtmw%5Chtwin%5Carticles%5C20150319.aspx)
He will be left with Neanderthal nation.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 25, 2015, 04:39:11 PM
Quote from: WallysWorld on March 25, 2015, 04:02:13 PM
Seems like Putin's Russia is having this effect.
"Since Russia began invading and trying to annex parts of Ukraine in 2014 there has been a substantial shift in population. Since early 2014 nearly two million people have left Russia.
More than half these were Westerners (including many from East European countries) working in Russia, providing skills that Russia did not have. The rest were Russians, most of them highly educated and with similar skills to the departing Westerners. What all these migrants had in common was a desire to get away from an increasingly authoritarian, intolerant and economically disastrous Russian government. "
http://www.strategypage.com/%5Chtmw%5Chtwin%5Carticles%5C20150319.aspx (http://www.strategypage.com/%5Chtmw%5Chtwin%5Carticles%5C20150319.aspx)
He will be left with Neanderthal nation.
Effectively a 30's style purge but voluntary.
... a proletariate easily manipulated through fear and nationalistic sentiment. >:D
A crop of prime cannon fodder.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/25/politics/army-convoy-through-europe/index.html
Respect goes out to these guys. If Russia tries to breach Poland, these guys will be in the shit until the big stick starts dropping hell on Russia's conventional forces.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 26, 2015, 01:04:45 AM
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/25/politics/army-convoy-through-europe/index.html
Respect goes out to these guys. If Russia tries to breach Poland, these guys will be in the shit until the big stick starts dropping hell on Russia's conventional forces.
Very nice to see that. Thanks for posting.
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32066222
Historical uprising in Dresden may be formative.
Interesting read. Thanks for finding that and posting it here.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 27, 2015, 07:29:05 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32066222
Historical uprising in Dresden may be formative.
Great find. Thanks.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on March 27, 2015, 07:29:05 PM
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32066222
Historical uprising in Dresden may be formative.
Interesting reading. Thanks for sharing. O0
We're in for it now. We may even need Steenkin Bodges.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chechnya-threatens-arm-mexico-against-133237288.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory&soc_trk=fb&fb_ref=Default
because Mexico has a shortage of small arms... ::)
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on March 29, 2015, 11:02:02 AM
because Mexico has a shortage of small arms... ::)
They get their military stuff from us.
Hell, even their criminals have been allowed to pick up guns here by the current Administration's appointees. ::)
It seems the economic troubles in Russia may be starting to tell in their military modernization programs:
http://m.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2015/0327/Grounded-Russia-s-answer-to-US-next-gen-fighter-hits-the-skids (http://m.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2015/0327/Grounded-Russia-s-answer-to-US-next-gen-fighter-hits-the-skids)
Deep cuts reported in orders for their PAK FA stealth fighter, and possibly for their new Armata tank that's supposed to be officially revealed in May.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN0ND2J920150422?irpc=932
Russian anti air back in Ukraine - to fight who exactly? The pause was long enough to release some tensions, now it seems they are back to work. It seems like a controlled bleeding of Ukraine's finances. Meanwhile the west does the same to them in retaliation. I still think they will take half the country at least, maybe the whole coast to recombine trans Dniester to the motherland. Why leave a coast that can be a landing point?
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on April 23, 2015, 01:31:13 AM
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN0ND2J920150422?irpc=932
Russian anti air back in Ukraine - to fight who exactly? The pause was long enough to release some tensions, now it seems they are back to work. It seems like a controlled bleeding of Ukraine's finances. Meanwhile the west does the same to them in retaliation. I still think they will take half the country at least, maybe the whole coast to recombine trans Dniester to the motherland. Why leave a coast that can be a landing point?
There will be a full scale shooting war starting in May. UK might be busy with after-election nonsense. Obama will be busy playing golf. The French and the Germans will be busy finding "a political solution".
If Combat Mission: Black Sea is anything to go by, I think the Ukrainians could do with some help from the West in terms of UAV support - it seems a big gap in their forces needs. That said, it seems that the real Ukraine is pre-empting Battlefront's next expansion in the series by getting that eye in the sky.
It seems that the US is helping out, but I haven't heard much about European support.
http://dailysignal.com/2015/03/12/ukraines-grassroots-drone-program-takes-flight/
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/outgunned-ukrainian-army-crowdfunding-people-drone
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/11/us-aid-ukraine-small-drones-humvees-russia
http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-us-russia-ukraine-20150422-story.html
Quote from: pawelj on May 09, 2014, 03:40:02 AM
Apparently in the Crimean "referendum" only about 15% of the population took part. So even though it was illegel it was also "lost" by the Russians. I hope Ukraine start an uncovetional natioanl liberation war against the occupation.
That's because Stalin deported most of the Crimean Tatars to Central Asia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tatars , and tried starving the Ukrainians to death http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor to make "lebensraum" for the Russian colonists that have been colonising the Crimea since it's annexation by Russia from the Ottomans in 1783. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Empire bang goes the notion put out by ethnic Russian Crimeans that the Crimea has always been Russian. Then again if you never check the facts, and always take stuff at face value you'd think that way... ::)
(Clarification -Not "you" personally Pawelj - I know you know what you are talking about O0).
A new Ukrainian beer:
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F40.media.tumblr.com%2F77d2a88c8fb82ff3f03d635fdb86fce1%2Ftumblr_nltziy7a5A1r9jzs2o1_1280.jpg&hash=f37635d98dbd6afe510375676d02d8d96a6c8005)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fest.lviv.ua%2Fimage.php%3Fnewsid%3D91%26amp%3Bfileno%3D3%26amp%3Bmaxx%3D2551%26amp%3Bmaxy%3D1240&hash=144f6a5697074066cd46ed2520b73fcc4f00483d)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fest.lviv.ua%2Fimage.php%3Fnewsid%3D91%26amp%3Bfileno%3D1%26amp%3Bmaxx%3D900%26amp%3Bmaxy%3D800&hash=6055937801e13354999f2c96fefd7201f4727cb6)
Does it taste like deception?
QuoteRussia is carrying out a new military build-up in eastern Ukraine, massing troops on the border and deploying advanced air defences inside its neighbour, according to the US State Department.
More units are being deployed near Ukraine's eastern frontier, giving Russia a stronger military presence than at any time since October.
Marie Harf, a State Department spokesman, accused Russia and its rebel allies in Ukraine of breaking the second Minsk ceasefire agreement signed in February.
source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11557698/Russia-masses-more-forces-near-Ukraine-border.html
Quote from: Boggit on April 23, 2015, 11:08:26 AM
Quote from: pawelj on May 09, 2014, 03:40:02 AM
Apparently in the Crimean "referendum" only about 15% of the population took part. So even though it was illegel it was also "lost" by the Russians. I hope Ukraine start an uncovetional natioanl liberation war against the occupation.
That's because Stalin deported most of the Crimean Tatars to Central Asia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_the_Crimean_Tatars , and tried starving the Ukrainians to death http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor to make "lebensraum" for the Russian colonists that have been colonising the Crimea since it's annexation by Russia from the Ottomans in 1783. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Empire bang goes the notion put out by ethnic Russian Crimeans that the Crimea has always been Russian. Then again if you never check the facts, and always take stuff at face value you'd think that way... ::)
(Clarification -Not "you" personally Pawelj - I know you know what you are talking about O0).
O0
The Finns have depth charged a suspicious sub in their waters.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/28/finland-fires-suspected-russian-submarine-waters-h/
They dropped warning charges, but still...
Does that make them the first Western nation in the 21st Century to intentionally fire on a suspected Russian military asset?
I'm kinda surprised they didn't drop war shots. Not a lot of love lost there.
Quote from: mirth on April 28, 2015, 05:56:28 PM
I'm kinda surprised they didn't drop war shots. Not a lot of love lost there.
It's a Russian sub. I'm shocked the warning charges didn't send it to the bottom in flames.
Quote from: LongBlade on April 28, 2015, 03:37:27 PM
The Finns have depth charged a suspicious sub in their waters.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/28/finland-fires-suspected-russian-submarine-waters-h/
The Washington Times' site is an ad-fest and annoying as hell...
Anyway...the phrase "underwater depth charges" in the article got to me. Does anyone know of depth charges that are NOT used underwater? ::)
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on April 29, 2015, 05:45:52 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on April 28, 2015, 03:37:27 PM
The Finns have depth charged a suspicious sub in their waters.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/28/finland-fires-suspected-russian-submarine-waters-h/
The Washington Times' site is an ad-fest and annoying as hell...
Anyway...the phrase "underwater depth charges" in the article got to me. Does anyone know of depth charges that are NOT used underwater? ::)
You ever hug with Star after a couple of bean breakfast burritos?
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on April 29, 2015, 05:45:52 AM
Quote from: LongBlade on April 28, 2015, 03:37:27 PM
The Finns have depth charged a suspicious sub in their waters.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/28/finland-fires-suspected-russian-submarine-waters-h/
The Washington Times' site is an ad-fest and annoying as hell...
Anyway...the phrase "underwater depth charges" in the article got to me. Does anyone know of depth charges that are NOT used underwater? ::)
Maybe when we have private industrial submarines patrolling the methane seas of Titan, and corporate war breaks out?
Quote from: LongBlade on April 29, 2015, 06:06:21 AM
You ever hug with Star after a couple of bean breakfast burritos?
No, but it sounds like you have a story to share with us, LB.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fjuntaedelane.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F03%2Fwilly-wonka-juntae-delane.jpg&hash=af93861588b981255497670b2386014895d29896)
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on April 29, 2015, 05:45:52 AM
Anyway...the phrase "underwater depth charges" in the article got to me. Does anyone know of depth charges that are NOT used underwater? ::)
::)
They are probably writing for the mental level of their readership.
Quote from: Centurion40 on April 29, 2015, 08:54:14 AM
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on April 29, 2015, 05:45:52 AM
Anyway...the phrase "underwater depth charges" in the article got to me. Does anyone know of depth charges that are NOT used underwater? ::)
::)
They are probably writing for the mental level of their readership.
True, but that doesn't mean that the mental level of the writership isn't sinking to the level of the readership...
They are all sinking together! Fire the depth charges!!!
FIRE THE DEATH CHARGES!
(While we're at it: depth charges have nothing to do with firing or being fired, underwater or not. ^-^ )
Just sprinkle American cigarettes on the water, they will open the hatch to get them.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on April 29, 2015, 10:13:12 AM
Just sprinkle American cigarettes on the water, they will open the hatch to get them.
LOL
LB, your new sig reminds me of:
(https://mourgos55.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/5933.jpg)
I haven't kept up with everything in this thread, so apologies if this was posted previously -
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/apr/24/crowdfunding-war-ukraines-diy-drone-makers
Chinese and Russian navies are holding joint training exercises in the Med.
QuoteThe exercises also illustrate China's continued engagement with Russia at a time when Moscow has been shunned by much of the international community over its support for separatist rebels in Ukraine.
The "Joint Sea 2015" exercises will feature nine surface ships, including three from China that are currently taking part in anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia, ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng told a monthly news conference.
The drills involve rescue, resupply and other missions, including the firing of live ammunition, Geng said.
source: http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_CHINA_RUSSIA_NAVAL_EXERCISES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-04-30-08-20-27
^^ Russian naval exercises? You mean belly dancing? :o
Quote from: LongBlade on April 30, 2015, 11:22:44 AM
Chinese and Russian navies are holding joint training exercises in the Med.
QuoteThe exercises also illustrate China's continued engagement with Russia at a time when Moscow has been shunned by much of the international community over its support for separatist rebels in Ukraine.
The "Joint Sea 2015" exercises will feature nine surface ships, including three from China that are currently taking part in anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia, ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng told a monthly news conference.
The drills involve rescue, resupply and other missions, including the firing of live ammunition, Geng said.
source: http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/stories/A/AS_CHINA_RUSSIA_NAVAL_EXERCISES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-04-30-08-20-27
US Coast Guard on stand by for SAR in case any ships spontaneously combust.
"Russia's virtual wargames have real consequences. Alexei Levinson, a sociologist, writes that "under this light moral anaesthetic, the country is getting used to actions which only a short while ago seemed unthinkable and impossible." Opinion polls show that 90% of Russians are prepared to discuss the possibility of nuclear war. While 57% of older Russians say that such a war cannot have any winners, 40% of younger people are convinced that Russia would defeat America and NATO. As Mr Levinson puts it, "A real war starts to look like a TV show or a computer game in which you have ten lives in reserve."
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21650177-vladimir-putin-twists-memory-soviet-unions-victory-over-nazism-justify-his-struggle?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709
Oh boy... :-\
That's Russian gov't-controlled media at work for ya.
Ramping up the nationalism to keep support of further expansionism strongk. ;)
The public may be starting to think of nuclear war as acceptable but I am curious to see how many in the military there are thinking the same thing.
What they secretly think may not matter. If they fear falling to the traditional purges, they will do what they are told, even at the most senior levels.
Didn't Hitler overcome doubters by winning at negotiations until his overreach had gone so far, there was no way out?
Well, until 1945 anyway.
Quote from: Gusington on May 05, 2015, 06:04:46 PM
The public may be starting to think of nuclear war as acceptable but I am curious to see how many in the military there are thinking the same thing.
Propagandists will point to the facts:
- 2 Japanese cities were nuked and both still inhabited (not bizarre eternal quarantine zones)
- the Earth has not gone post-apocalyptic after 2000+ nuclear test explosions
- so why can't a nuclear war be won?
Well, those 2,000+ tests weren't all in the span of a few minutes. And generally exploded over/on/under remote regions.
Quote from: Gusington on May 05, 2015, 06:04:46 PM
The public may be starting to think of nuclear war as acceptable but I am curious to see how many in the military there are thinking the same thing.
Indeed. I wonder if there is a problem of definitions. It's well and good to say you support something, but does the current younger generation really have a full grasp of what that entails?
Run The Day After (http://www.amazon.com/Day-After-Jason-Robards/dp/B0001WTVUW) on Russian TV a couple of times and see if those polls move.
Quote from: LongBlade on May 06, 2015, 09:31:46 AM
....Run The Day After (http://www.amazon.com/Day-After-Jason-Robards/dp/B0001WTVUW) on Russian TV a couple of times and see if those polls move.
Coincidentally, someone on Amazon named Peter Vinokurov reviewed
The Day After and wrote:
"I've seen "The Day After" when I was a child of 10-11 in 1986-1987 in a small village in Siberia called Maya, near Yakutsk, USSR. The movie was shown over the whole Soviet Union twice on the first channel. Since then I remember the movie very clearly, the impression I got was very high, so I immediately started to deeply realize the horror of a nuclear catastrophe. We were on the other side of the Cold War propaganda. I remember at school how we were taught about the US predator imperialistic policy. We always had lessons at school how to behave in case of US nuclear attack and practiced it physically running down to underground rooms wearing gas-masks and helping each other. The US nuclear threat, I believed, was so real, so I was frightened of a sight of a shining plane board in the sky. I was sure it were Americans going to bomb my village. And this hysteria was everywhere in USSR. Now living in Moscow, the heart of an almost free country of Russia I realize that the topicality of the movie hasn't dissappeared. We still face a lot of threats around the world, including terrorism and nuclear war. I'm sure all this comes from people's indifference, jealosy, prejudice, ignorance... Watch the movie and let our children know and grow."But that was nearly thirty years ago (the review is dated May 19, 2004) and it's time for a rerun.
A redeaux of The Day After, updating it for the current world situation, would be watched by many I think.
I bet there's few networks with the balls to do it, though. Maybe a few. Who knows.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on May 06, 2015, 10:13:54 AM
A redeaux of The Day After, updating it for the current world situation, would be watched by many I think.
I bet there's few networks with the balls to do it, though. Maybe a few. Who knows.
SyFy maybe.
Quote from: OJsDad on May 06, 2015, 10:22:33 AM
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on May 06, 2015, 10:13:54 AM
A redeaux of The Day After, updating it for the current world situation, would be watched by many I think.
I bet there's few networks with the balls to do it, though. Maybe a few. Who knows.
SyFy maybe.
Only if there's sharks added in. :P
That would make it one of the best shows they have.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on May 06, 2015, 10:13:54 AM
A redeaux of The Day After, updating it for the current world situation, would be watched by many I think.
I bet there's few networks with the balls to do it, though. Maybe a few. Who knows.
It would not have the same impact today. When it was first broadcast, there were not many other channel choices.
Quote from: Barthheart on May 06, 2015, 10:24:29 AMOnly if there's sharks added in. :P
With
frickin' laser beams!
actually, wasn't that show called "Jericho"?
Got some footage of us saving a Russian journalist. It happened in Shirokyne.
Interesting day for sure. You can jump to 5:00 or watch the whole thing.
When did this happen?
The video title says that he stepped on a mine. Was he doing a hand-stand? His feet looked fine, but his head was wounded. Bouncing Betty?
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 06, 2015, 11:47:38 AM
actually, wasn't that show called "Jericho"?
Jericho was highly underrated. I hated that it got cancelled.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on May 06, 2015, 01:25:14 PM
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 06, 2015, 11:47:38 AM
actually, wasn't that show called "Jericho"?
Jericho was highly underrated. I hated that it got cancelled.
The first season was excellent. The second season after it got the reprieve was horrific.
I'll give you that, though I chose to see it for its (few) strengths in that second season.
DOH!
You guys were talking Jericho and the whole time I'm thinking Jeremiah
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0290966/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_48 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0290966/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_48)
Quote from: OJsDad on May 06, 2015, 03:57:04 PM
DOH!
You guys were talking Jericho and the whole time I'm thinking Jeremiah
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0290966/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_48 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0290966/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_48)
At least it wasn't Jersey Shore!
What's jersey shore.
Quote from: taijeronv on May 06, 2015, 12:02:33 PM
Got some footage of us saving a Russian journalist. It happened in Shirokyne.
Interesting day for sure. You can jump to 5:00 or watch the whole thing.
Wow. Thanks for sharing that with us. Which one are you and what organization is represented in the later part of the clip? Who's the guy in military garb taking charge initially?
Quote from: OJsDad on May 06, 2015, 06:48:52 PM
What's jersey shore.
Spending weeks on end with the human beings that evolution forgot.
Quote from: Arctic Blast on May 06, 2015, 10:41:57 PM
Quote from: OJsDad on May 06, 2015, 06:48:52 PM
What's jersey shore.
Spending weeks on end with the human beings that evolution forgot.
That's a succinct summary. Well done.
We think it was a booby trap. It happened about 50 meters behind my vehicle around the corner of a store. If he had been wearing a helmet he would have been much better off. Of course if hadn't been walking around it would have never happened. There are tons of UXOs all over the place, some of them embedded in the road.
It was interesting because the DPR fired a mortar round earlier in the day, then when we treating the journalist they decide to have a "mad minute".
I was reporting to the patrol leader, and was the one who called for the medic.
Quote from: Staggerwing on May 06, 2015, 07:09:44 PM
Quote from: taijeronv on May 06, 2015, 12:02:33 PM
Got some footage of us saving a Russian journalist. It happened in Shirokyne.
Interesting day for sure. You can jump to 5:00 or watch the whole thing.
Wow. Thanks for sharing that with us. Which one are you and what organization is represented in the later part of the clip? Who's the guy in military garb taking charge initially?
The mil guy was one of the DPR soldiers. I'm in the video whenever we start moving the casualty. We had two elements that day. I was with the vehicles and provided C2 when it got "loud" and I was the one who called for the medic. The dismounted element was further in the village visiting with the locals who were still there. I was more worried about the dismounted element since it seemed like they were in the line of fire.
We are with OSCE.
Are you there to monitor the 'ceasefire' (such as it is)?
It looks like you guys are in the thick of it. Stay safe!
Yeah be careful, and thanks for posting.
As far as nukes, the Russians/Soviets don't have the best record themselves. Hell they didn't even need some imperialistic enemy at Chernobyl...they messed that up real good on their own!
And Jersey Shore is a spinoff of The Toonces Show, btw.
Just looked up Shirokyne. Shit man stay safe, as I just discovered that you are in one of the hotspots. I was also interested to note that you aren't all that far from Yalta. You're not that far from Russia either (as if you didn't know either fact, I'm just stating the obvious for any less informed readers- like I was 10 minutes ago).
Thanks for the support guys.
Here's a pic of myself and one of my colleagues negotiating with the Azov battalion. I was the patrol leader that day. We helped the Ukrainians recover one of their Georgian comrades who was killed the previous night. The Ukrainians were firing to keep the DPR from getting his body. I went with Azov and my boss came in from the other side with the DPR. The body was recovered but we had to use ropes in order to keep from getting blown up. The body was booby trapped.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/osze-in-schyrokine-bei-mariupol-in-ukraine-logik-der-friedensstifter-versagt-13576256.html (http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/osze-in-schyrokine-bei-mariupol-in-ukraine-logik-der-friedensstifter-versagt-13576256.html)
Quote from: taijeronv on May 07, 2015, 10:03:14 AM
Thanks for the support guys.
Here's a pic of myself and one of my colleagues negotiating with the Azov battalion. I was the patrol leader that day. We helped the Ukrainians recover one of their Georgian comrades who was killed the previous night. The Ukrainians were firing to keep the DPR from getting his body. I went with Azov and my boss came in from the other side with the DPR. The body was recovered but we had to use ropes in order to keep from getting blown up. The body was booby trapped.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/osze-in-schyrokine-bei-mariupol-in-ukraine-logik-der-friedensstifter-versagt-13576256.html (http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/europa/osze-in-schyrokine-bei-mariupol-in-ukraine-logik-der-friedensstifter-versagt-13576256.html)
And daily artillery duels. We aren't hearing about that over here these days.
Stay safe!
Damn! Random arty, booby traps. What a f-ing gig!
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 07, 2015, 10:15:10 AM
Damn! Random arty, booby traps. What a f-ing gig!
Damn, wrong type of boobies. I just realized my hands are boobie traps. :D
I should have commented on this earlier.
I've actually led a few patrols to the RBCP or Russian Border CheckPoint. I even traded some patches with the DPR border guards.
Quote from: taijeronv on May 07, 2015, 11:19:37 AM
I should have commented on this earlier.
I've actually led a few patrols to the RBCP or Russian Border CheckPoint. I even traded some patches with the DPR border guards.
Wild. So long as you are not trading fire, it's all good (relatively speaking)!
DPR has border guards?? And a border???
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 07, 2015, 12:08:39 PM
Quote from: taijeronv on May 07, 2015, 11:19:37 AM
I should have commented on this earlier.
I've actually led a few patrols to the RBCP or Russian Border CheckPoint. I even traded some patches with the DPR border guards.
Wild. So long as you are not trading fire, it's all good (relatively speaking)!
Do you get the impression, from what you see, that their minimum goal is a land bridge to Crimea?
Quote from: Gusington on May 08, 2015, 08:27:44 AM
DPR has border guards?? And a border???
The Russians seem to think it's up against Poland. Maybe a little further west, even.
Yeah I bet.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 08, 2015, 08:41:29 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 07, 2015, 12:08:39 PM
Quote from: taijeronv on May 07, 2015, 11:19:37 AM
I should have commented on this earlier.
I've actually led a few patrols to the RBCP or Russian Border CheckPoint. I even traded some patches with the DPR border guards.
Wild. So long as you are not trading fire, it's all good (relatively speaking)!
Do you get the impression, from what you see, that their minimum goal is a land bridge to Crimea?
I've seen that in some of the analysis. I can also see why they are scrapping over Shirokyne. Mariupol is definitely one of the keys to a land bridge. The DPR do not have enough combat power to take it by themselves, you would need some serious units to do so. Mariupol is one city the UAF will not give up without a fight.
It sounds that for all intent and purposes it is still a very real and shooting war, with all the nasty shit that goes with it.
@Taijeronv - be careful and lucky. I hope you get through this unhurt. :)
Reports of morale problems in the Russian Military. There are now several confirmed reports of desertion because of Ukraine.
Quote"After we crossed the border, a lieutenant colonel said we could be sent to jail if we didn't fulfil orders. Some soldiers refused to stay there," said the soldier, who served with the elite Russian Kantemirovskaya tank division. He gave Reuters his full name but spoke on condition of anonymity, saying he feared reprisals.
He said he knew two soldiers who refused to stay. "They were taken somewhere. The lieutenant colonel said criminal cases were opened against them but in reality – we called them afterwards – they were at home. They just quit."
More at the link: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/10/us-ukraine-crisis-soldiers-specialreport-idUSKBN0NV06Q20150510
QuoteAssociates of Boris Nemtsov, a prominent Kremlin critic killed in February, will soon publish a report which they say will contain new evidence of the Russian military presence in Ukraine.
Somebody's got some big brass ones.
As if we didn't know this already:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32840502 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32840502)
Quote from: pawelj on May 22, 2015, 08:02:34 AM
As if we didn't know this already:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32840502 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32840502)
Yeah.
Russia says they're just "volunteers". More like "volunteered".
Reportedly ordered to (temporarily?) resign from the Russian military and join the rest of the Russian military fighting in Ukraine. As if having hordes of enlisted soldiers resigning from the military is both common and accepted.
Sometimes I wonder why the Russkies even bother spinning stuff like that. As mentioned before.. obviously meant more for internal nationalist consumption because those are the only ones who buy the nonsense. ;D
A good article on Russia's hybrid doctrine and how it's working in Ukraine
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.janes.com%2Fimages%2Fassets%2F469%2F49469%2F1569534_-_main1.jpg&hash=53f06b220ce0a1e69e874fb7fe69be413b7eee65)
Quote from: Nefaro on May 22, 2015, 02:33:42 PM
Quote from: pawelj on May 22, 2015, 08:02:34 AM
As if we didn't know this already:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32840502 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32840502)
Yeah.
Russia says they're just "volunteers". More like "volunteered".
Reportedly ordered to (temporarily?) resign from the Russian military and join the rest of the Russian military fighting in Ukraine. As if having hordes of enlisted soldiers resigning from the military is both common and accepted.
Sometimes I wonder why the Russkies even bother spinning stuff like that. As mentioned before.. obviously meant more for internal nationalist consumption because those are the only ones who buy the nonsense. ;D
Or perhaps they mean "volunteers" in that Vlad isn't sending in the conscripts... yet.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fthumb%2Fa%2Fac%2FEmblem_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces.svg%2F800px-Emblem_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces.svg.png&hash=05ad5f262178fa21777f07c1299bb4493154d5a4)
"Russia's army is massing troops and hundreds of pieces of weaponry including mobile rocket launchers, tanks and artillery at a makeshift base near the border with Ukraine, a Reuters reporter saw this week."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/27/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-military-idUSKBN0OC2K820150527
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on May 27, 2015, 08:26:52 PM
"Russia's army is massing troops and hundreds of pieces of weaponry including mobile rocket launchers, tanks and artillery at a makeshift base near the border with Ukraine, a Reuters reporter saw this week."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/27/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-military-idUSKBN0OC2K820150527
That doesn't look good. I wonder how long it will be until someone posts to this thread that Ukraine has surrendered.
I wonder what "border" the Russians are considering the "border with Ukraine"?
The real border?
The "rebel" border in the Donbass?
The Polish border?
The border will be wherever the capital and political loss-benefit ratio stops favoring Putin's ends. Even he probably doesn't quite know where that will end up being.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 28, 2015, 05:30:10 AM
I wonder what "border" the Russians are considering the "border with Ukraine"?
The real border?
The "rebel" border in the Donbass?
The Polish border?
Should we start a pool?
I'm taking the Dnieper from Kherson to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. That oblast will be divided along the Dnieper with all east of the Dnieper going to Russia/the Russian puppet state, and everything west staying in Ukraine. Poltava Oblast will stay in Ukraine, but Kharkiv will go to the Russians, as will everything east of Kharkiv. I'll gamble and say that Sumy will stay Ukrainian, but THAT's really iffy.
If the Russians push on the Poltava Oblast, Ukraine will wage war with everything they have. If they lose Poltava, they'll surrender to the Russians.
My bet is Polish border.... with Germany..... :buck2:
my guess would be the Oder or the Rhine.
They will take the entire coast. They may leave the north west quarter of the country as a buffer. The capital is significant in their history, it is unlikely they will leave it outside Russia.
I hope Mike is ready to welcome his new Russian democratic overlords.
So long as they don't try to build a shed on his land, things might be ok.
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 28, 2015, 12:27:52 PM
So long as they don't try to build a shed on his land, things might be ok.
:2funny:
Mike's a partisan already!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.quickmeme.com%2Fimg%2F8a%2F8aef475da8ff3bfdd05e0e6ee91e48d2f1098f793f4569cfa7fb4a241ee2d68a.jpg&hash=159c20e918f524e813ca10b54cb6a5788682f963)
^Maybe. I wouldn't doubt Mike's skill in all things partisan though.
I went to the game store for nerd night on Tuesday and ended up playing Bomber Command with a guy who just immigrated here from Lithuania, promptly lost his job and is likely going to have to head back. He was definitely worried about the resurgence of the Bear and had nothing but scorn for the western nations in the EU and their dithering. I did like how he compared the EU to Voltaire's jibe against the Holy Roman Empire as being neither holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire. I took a more cynical approach and suggested that the powers in Germany, France, Britain, etc possibly saw the eastern European nations as a good buffer/speed-bump but he dismissed that and said they'd been at peace for so long that they'd simply become decadent, weak, cowardly denialists.
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on May 28, 2015, 08:26:09 PM
I went to the game store for nerd night on Tuesday and ended up playing Bomber Command with a guy who just immigrated here from Lithuania, promptly lost his job and is likely going to have to head back. He was definitely worried about the resurgence of the Bear and had nothing but scorn for the western nations in the EU and their dithering. I did like how he compared the EU to Voltaire's jibe against the Holy Roman Empire as being neither holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire. I took a more cynical approach and suggested that the powers in Germany, France, Britain, etc possibly saw the eastern European nations as a good buffer/speed-bump but he dismissed that and said they'd been at peace for so long that they'd simply become decadent, weak, cowardly denialists.
Blame the bankers that have enslaved everybody.
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on May 28, 2015, 08:26:09 PM
I went to the game store for nerd night on Tuesday and ended up playing Bomber Command with a guy who just immigrated here from Lithuania, promptly lost his job and is likely going to have to head back. He was definitely worried about the resurgence of the Bear and had nothing but scorn for the western nations in the EU and their dithering. I did like how he compared the EU to Voltaire's jibe against the Holy Roman Empire as being neither holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire. I took a more cynical approach and suggested that the powers in Germany, France, Britain, etc possibly saw the eastern European nations as a good buffer/speed-bump but he dismissed that and said they'd been at peace for so long that they'd simply become decadent, weak, cowardly denialists.
Was the guy's name Pawel? ;)
Wouldn't every night be 'nerd night' at a game store???
It's definitely not ladies night.
Unless she's a nerd.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on May 29, 2015, 09:41:30 AM
Unless she's a nerd.
(https://i.chzbgr.com/maxW500/5620578304/h2A3A6272/)
Yeah she's not showing up at any FLGS in my area.
Quote from: mirth on May 29, 2015, 09:40:47 AM
It's definitely not ladies night.
Monday nights are angry lesbians nights (Two of them are pretty hot lipstick lesbian types. The rest all look like they have day jobs hanging out under bridges and collecting tolls.)
Quote from: mirth on May 29, 2015, 10:19:34 AMYeah she's not showing up at any FLGS in my area.
you need a new area
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 29, 2015, 06:57:46 AM
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on May 28, 2015, 08:26:09 PM
I went to the game store for nerd night on Tuesday and ended up playing Bomber Command with a guy who just immigrated here from Lithuania, promptly lost his job and is likely going to have to head back. He was definitely worried about the resurgence of the Bear and had nothing but scorn for the western nations in the EU and their dithering. I did like how he compared the EU to Voltaire's jibe against the Holy Roman Empire as being neither holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire. I took a more cynical approach and suggested that the powers in Germany, France, Britain, etc possibly saw the eastern European nations as a good buffer/speed-bump but he dismissed that and said they'd been at peace for so long that they'd simply become decadent, weak, cowardly denialists.
Was the guy's name Pawel? ;)
I'm not from Lithuania. But I do agree with his view of the Western nations.
Quote from: pawelj on June 04, 2015, 08:16:10 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 29, 2015, 06:57:46 AM
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on May 28, 2015, 08:26:09 PM
I went to the game store for nerd night on Tuesday and ended up playing Bomber Command with a guy who just immigrated here from Lithuania, promptly lost his job and is likely going to have to head back. He was definitely worried about the resurgence of the Bear and had nothing but scorn for the western nations in the EU and their dithering. I did like how he compared the EU to Voltaire's jibe against the Holy Roman Empire as being neither holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire. I took a more cynical approach and suggested that the powers in Germany, France, Britain, etc possibly saw the eastern European nations as a good buffer/speed-bump but he dismissed that and said they'd been at peace for so long that they'd simply become decadent, weak, cowardly denialists.
Was the guy's name Pawel? ;)
I'm not from Lithuania. But I do agree with his view of the Western nations.
Yeah, I know. It just sounded too similar to your views, so I wondered if his name was Pawel too! ;) That being said, I don't even know if Lithuanians use the name Pawel!!
Quote from: Centurion40 on June 04, 2015, 08:18:38 AM
Quote from: pawelj on June 04, 2015, 08:16:10 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on May 29, 2015, 06:57:46 AM
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on May 28, 2015, 08:26:09 PM
I went to the game store for nerd night on Tuesday and ended up playing Bomber Command with a guy who just immigrated here from Lithuania, promptly lost his job and is likely going to have to head back. He was definitely worried about the resurgence of the Bear and had nothing but scorn for the western nations in the EU and their dithering. I did like how he compared the EU to Voltaire's jibe against the Holy Roman Empire as being neither holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire. I took a more cynical approach and suggested that the powers in Germany, France, Britain, etc possibly saw the eastern European nations as a good buffer/speed-bump but he dismissed that and said they'd been at peace for so long that they'd simply become decadent, weak, cowardly denialists.
Was the guy's name Pawel? ;)
I'm not from Lithuania. But I do agree with his view of the Western nations.
Yeah, I know. It just sounded too similar to your views, so I wondered if his name was Pawel too! ;) That being said, I don't even know if Lithuanians use the name Pawel!!
No, that would be Paulius.
These numbers aren't exactly encouraging
(https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ODg4FgzXG07cKjsaiHRl5XI_jj4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3780596/CHKyqENUUAAU-Al.png)
http://www.vox.com/2015/6/11/8764887/russia-nato-chart
I think attitudes would change quickly if bullets started flying.
I think it depends on how it went down. Look at how the Russkies have played it Ukraine. I'm not sure the will is there to defend the Baltics. At least not with some of the European NATO members. We'd do it and the Brits and Poles, but if others hang back, it's the end of NATO. The Russians may see that as objective enough to make a play.
Quote from: mirth on June 11, 2015, 11:01:04 AM
These numbers aren't exactly encouraging
(https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ODg4FgzXG07cKjsaiHRl5XI_jj4=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3780596/CHKyqENUUAAU-Al.png)
http://www.vox.com/2015/6/11/8764887/russia-nato-chart
I think they should only poll those that can accurately locate Ukraine on a map
there is an easy solution:
give each Baltic state one own small ultra-silent sub (the same Type 212 Germany 1/3 gave 2/3 sold to the Israelis, who just turning them into a nuke-launch capable-platform) and the latest American nukes (secured with a general code, which get transmitted to the Baltic state High command in question when the situation at the border gets irritating, so they can all alone decide if they nuke a mayor Russian city in case of invasion) that would keep Putin on his side of the fence.
Ifcwe go with Barbarossa Part 2 we can reach Moscow by September.
Let France handle it...worked so well the last 2-3 times.
Quote from: mirth on June 11, 2015, 11:01:04 AM
These numbers aren't exactly encouraging
Sure it's encouraging.
To Emperor Putin! :))
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2015, 11:03:11 AM
I think attitudes would change quickly if bullets started flying.
Attitudes changed very quickly in Poland. Actually the level of support is not bad. Fortunately the action of NATO is pretty automatic, and if Greece decides not to participate, it is hardly a loss.
There is really only one membership that really counts.
Quote from: pawelj on June 11, 2015, 02:23:17 PM
...
There is really only one membership that really counts.
Canada! O0
Quote from: Barthheart on June 11, 2015, 02:25:40 PM
Quote from: pawelj on June 11, 2015, 02:23:17 PM
...
There is really only one membership that really counts.
Canada! O0
FUCKING EH!!!!!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fjohnbolton.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F10%2Fbeaver.gif&hash=05713f84696ded25d6f037892f9230d600c00117)
Quote from: Windigo on June 11, 2015, 03:40:00 PM
Quote from: Barthheart on June 11, 2015, 02:25:40 PM
Quote from: pawelj on June 11, 2015, 02:23:17 PM
...
There is really only one membership that really counts.
Canada! O0
FUCKING EH!!!!!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fjohnbolton.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F10%2Fbeaver.gif&hash=05713f84696ded25d6f037892f9230d600c00117)
The US brings the toys, we bring the donuts.
New campaing promise, a Timmy's in every base!
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 11, 2015, 04:33:39 PM
New campaing promise, a Timmy's in every base!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.meme.am%2Finstances2%2F500x%2F218414.jpg&hash=fb3e5c51f06600fa68bb6375dd7bb71f6ce8743a)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolandball.cc%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F07%2FXuiDdNl.png&hash=1a855a90dc4e1875c9bbca056522756d09b5374c)
:2funny:
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2015, 11:03:11 AM
I think attitudes would change quickly if bullets started flying.
I wouldn't count on that Star, too much weak leadership, especially here in the US. These aren't the days of Reagan, Thatcher, and Kohl.
Quote from: Banzai_Cat on June 12, 2015, 07:19:59 AM
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolandball.cc%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F07%2FXuiDdNl.png&hash=1a855a90dc4e1875c9bbca056522756d09b5374c)
Heh.
We were on vaca a week or so ago. Toured a zoo. There was a group of Canadians in the front of a line of our group at one point and the guide was letting us into an area of the tour. As she did so she told the Canadians to lead the way.
Naturally, I piped up and objected because they were Canadians. Of course all I knew about them was that they were from Canada. Later they came over for a friendly chat to see who the smartass was. Turns out they were a church group. When I told them I knew a bunch of Canadians from online and we constantly haze each other they thought that was pretty funny and we all had a laugh.
Good times. It was almost as if you guys were there with me 8)
We're no church group! ;)
Quote from: Centurion40 on June 12, 2015, 10:28:12 AM
We're no church group! ;)
Wargaming is far more fundamental.
Quote from: OJsDad on June 12, 2015, 08:35:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2015, 11:03:11 AM
I think attitudes would change quickly if bullets started flying.
I wouldn't count on that Star, too much weak leadership, especially here in the US. These aren't the days of Reagan, Thatcher, and Kohl.
I think hitler made a similar mistake in his opinions about western powers in 1939.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 12, 2015, 11:05:38 AM
Quote from: OJsDad on June 12, 2015, 08:35:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2015, 11:03:11 AM
I think attitudes would change quickly if bullets started flying.
I wouldn't count on that Star, too much weak leadership, especially here in the US. These aren't the days of Reagan, Thatcher, and Kohl.
I think hitler made a similar mistake in his opinions about western powers in 1939.
Be nice to avoid a repeat of that little adventure.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 12, 2015, 11:05:38 AM
Quote from: OJsDad on June 12, 2015, 08:35:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2015, 11:03:11 AM
I think attitudes would change quickly if bullets started flying.
I wouldn't count on that Star, too much weak leadership, especially here in the US. These aren't the days of Reagan, Thatcher, and Kohl.
I think hitler made a similar mistake in his opinions about western powers in 1939.
+1
A nearly exact parallel happened about three decades ago. One of the weakest and worst presidents of our time was followed by Reagan (and Thatcher and Kohl more or less). We may not be able to see that next leader yet, but I suspect they're out there and will emerge in the next year or so.
Quote from: mirth on June 12, 2015, 11:16:57 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 12, 2015, 11:05:38 AM
Quote from: OJsDad on June 12, 2015, 08:35:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2015, 11:03:11 AM
I think attitudes would change quickly if bullets started flying.
I wouldn't count on that Star, too much weak leadership, especially here in the US. These aren't the days of Reagan, Thatcher, and Kohl.
I think hitler made a similar mistake in his opinions about western powers in 1939.
Be nice to avoid a repeat of that little adventure.
It would be nice to avoid it, but I'm afraid it's almost baked into the cake at this point. O has screwed things up royally and is now trying to run out the clock before things get really bad.
He was always domestically focused, specifically the desires of black America.
If the EU gets weened of the defensive teet, it might not be bad.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 12, 2015, 11:31:32 AM
He was always domestically focused, specifically the desires of black America.
Obama? I don't mean to be contrary here, but there is a growing story line about just how badly Obama has failed to help black Americans. IMHO some of the unrest we've seen in Baltimore and Ferguson can be attributed to cognitive dissonance within the black community - they had very high (probably unrealistic) hopes when Obama was elected. It was unlikely those hopes would have ever been met, but the reality is even worse: he's done virtually nothing to help the black community.
QuoteByron Allen has branded President Barack Obama 'a white president in blackface'.
The comedian, who is also black, gave a rambling interview to TMZ about Obama's description of rioters in Baltimore as 'thugs', which he said was unjustified.
He accused the president of not acting 'like a black man' and of failing to 'stand up' for the African American community, which is being 'failed by the system'.
Black people, he concluded, have never been worse off, adding: 'Black America would have done much better with a white president.'
source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3095668/Black-America-better-white-president-Byron-Allen-launches-searing-attack-Obama-rambling-rant-Baltimore-race.html
It's a real shame as Obama had the chance to do some great things for American and minorities in America. He really could have strengthened us as a nation and a people. I suspect that failure may ultimately be the one he's judged harshest on, but there's good competition for his failure of foreign policy so it may have to be declared a tie.
That's probably my #1 complaint with Obama...the potential good squandered.
As far as Hitler, in 1939 and 1940 he was spot on. His real mistakes were in biting off more than he could chew by attacking the USSR and then declaring war on the US after Pearl Harbor.
He made plenty of mistakes, but the West was on its knees by the summer of 1940. Hitler didn't need any outside help in Germany's destruction. Not sure if Putin will make the same kinds of.critical errors.
Quote from: LongBlade on June 12, 2015, 11:40:05 AM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 12, 2015, 11:31:32 AM
He was always domestically focused, specifically the desires of black America.
Obama? I don't mean to be contrary here, but there is a growing story line about just how badly Obama has failed to help black Americans. IMHO some of the unrest we've seen in Baltimore and Ferguson can be attributed to cognitive dissonance within the black community - they had very high (probably unrealistic) hopes when Obama was elected. It was unlikely those hopes would have ever been met, but the reality is even worse: he's done virtually nothing to help the black community.
QuoteByron Allen has branded President Barack Obama 'a white president in blackface'.
The comedian, who is also black, gave a rambling interview to TMZ about Obama's description of rioters in Baltimore as 'thugs', which he said was unjustified.
He accused the president of not acting 'like a black man' and of failing to 'stand up' for the African American community, which is being 'failed by the system'.
Black people, he concluded, have never been worse off, adding: 'Black America would have done much better with a white president.'
source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3095668/Black-America-better-white-president-Byron-Allen-launches-searing-attack-Obama-rambling-rant-Baltimore-race.html
It's a real shame as Obama had the chance to do some great things for American and minorities in America. He really could have strengthened us as a nation and a people. I suspect that failure may ultimately be the one he's judged harshest on, but there's good competition for his failure of foreign policy so it may have to be declared a tie.
Do you believe that story line? If so I will go with it, you have a better view of the action than me. Part of me suspects that whatever he does, they will always demand more, call him an Oreo, then be shocked checks arnt piled in their mail.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 12, 2015, 01:59:44 PM
Do you believe that story line? If so I will go with it, you have a better view of the action than me. Part of me suspects that whatever he does, they will always demand more, call him an Oreo, then be shocked checks arnt piled in their mail.
I think the story has a ring of truth to it. By virtually every economic indicator poor blacks are no better off and possibly worse off under Obama.
It strikes me that the machinery of any democracy is difficult to change, be it the USA, Canada, Australia or where ever. Therefore there is only so much that Obama can do without widespread congressional support, or dictatorial powers.
I would say his biggest failing is talking down to the legislative leaders. As soon as he started that, he was doomed. Everything else followed even if they were mildly hostile from day one.
As for foregn policy, both Russia and China have realized they would eventually win an occupation. They are free to invade others because they cannot be invaded in retaliation.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 12, 2015, 01:59:44 PM
Quote from: LongBlade on June 12, 2015, 11:40:05 AM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 12, 2015, 11:31:32 AM
He was always domestically focused, specifically the desires of black America.
Obama? I don't mean to be contrary here, but there is a growing story line about just how badly Obama has failed to help black Americans. IMHO some of the unrest we've seen in Baltimore and Ferguson can be attributed to cognitive dissonance within the black community - they had very high (probably unrealistic) hopes when Obama was elected. It was unlikely those hopes would have ever been met, but the reality is even worse: he's done virtually nothing to help the black community.
QuoteByron Allen has branded President Barack Obama 'a white president in blackface'.
The comedian, who is also black, gave a rambling interview to TMZ about Obama's description of rioters in Baltimore as 'thugs', which he said was unjustified.
He accused the president of not acting 'like a black man' and of failing to 'stand up' for the African American community, which is being 'failed by the system'.
Black people, he concluded, have never been worse off, adding: 'Black America would have done much better with a white president.'
source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3095668/Black-America-better-white-president-Byron-Allen-launches-searing-attack-Obama-rambling-rant-Baltimore-race.html
It's a real shame as Obama had the chance to do some great things for American and minorities in America. He really could have strengthened us as a nation and a people. I suspect that failure may ultimately be the one he's judged harshest on, but there's good competition for his failure of foreign policy so it may have to be declared a tie.
Do you believe that story line? If so I will go with it, you have a better view of the action than me. Part of me suspects that whatever he does, they will always demand more, call him an Oreo, then be shocked checks arnt piled in their mail.
Agreed.
That was a no-win situation and the expectations of the most critical are probably off the realism scale.
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 12, 2015, 02:55:29 PM
I would say his biggest failing is talking down to the legislative leaders. As soon as he started that, he was doomed. Everything else followed even if they were mildly hostile from day one.
Yep.
His initial "Because I won" snobbery against a meeting of congressmen, shortly after his first election, was indicative of how things would go. I lost any last sense of "hope" after seeing the same snotty behavior he had exhibited in his previous congressional position being carried into the White House.
Even a notable portion of his own party, and some past media shills, are critical of him nowadays. It wasn't that difficult to see where it was headed years ago.
Anyway... as for Ukraine.
____
Russian Combat Brigades In Ukraine
by James Dunnigan
May 28, 2015
In April Ukrainian Army officials revealed that they were tracking the Russian units operating in eastern Ukraine. At that time Ukrainian intelligence had identified portions of the Russian 15th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, 8th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, 331st Airborne Regiment and the 98th Airborne Division operating inside Ukraine. It was noted that Russia moves these units in and out, rarely keeping Russian units in eastern Ukraine for more than a few months. There are some attempts to hide the fact that these Russian soldiers are Russians, but these efforts are not diligently carried out and given all the cell phone cameras around it is easier for anti-Russian civilians in rebel controlled areas to collect and pass on evidence.
NATO intelligence analysts earlier noted that the Russians have been forced to use most of their few capable combat units to support their attempt to seize portions of eastern Ukraine. Thus the Russians have sent in about twenty percent of their combat brigades, usually the most effective (Spetsnaz and airborne) and experienced (ones recently in the Caucasus). For most of the last year parts of at least three of these brigades have been detected inside eastern Ukraine at any one time. At least fifteen combat brigades have had some of their troops in Ukraine during 2014. These brigades represent the best Russia has, as the rest of the army is crippled by inexperience and shortages of personnel and equipment. Russia is still trying to replace obsolete and worn out Cold War era weapons and equipment.
In Russia the reforms of the army that began in 2008 have reduced the number of army units from over 1,800 to fewer than 200 now. Many of the disbanded units were part of the reserve or organizations that had become irrelevant but continued to exist anyway. The army strength is now about 300,000, including SOF (special operations forces, or Spetsnaz). The combat forces comprise 55 combat brigades (33 mechanized infantry and four tank, 22 Spetsnaz, airborne or air assault). These brigades are about half the size of American combat brigades and about a third of the personnel are conscripts who serve for one year. So the skill levels of troops in these brigades is much lower than for comparable troops in American or British brigades (and elite brigades in French, German and some other Western forces.) There are also 28 combat support brigades (eight armed with multi-barrel rocket launchers like the U.S. MLRS, nine with short range ballistic missiles, ten with anti-aircraft missile systems and one engineer brigade).
There are other problems. Since Russia does not admit it has troops inside Ukraine, the hundreds of Russian soldiers killed there so far have been coming back in coffins and the families are increasingly angry about the government secrecy about how their sons died and where. Despite strenuous efforts to suppress news of dead soldiers the Internet allows the news to get around and the families of dead soldiers to get in touch with each other and organize protests and unrest the government does not want. All this is another side effect of military reforms that are still under way.
http://www.strategypage.com/dls/articles/Russian-Combat-Brigades-In-Ukraine-5-28-2015.asp
Panzers East!
QuoteTHE tiny Polish town of Swietoszow did not officially exist during the Cold War; as home to a massive but secret Soviet tank force ready to strike at the West, it was removed from all public maps and records.
Last week Nato used the base for the first big deployment of a new special force to defend eastern Europe from an increasingly expansionist Russia.
American Black Hawk helicopters thundered in the skies as German tanks rolled from across the nearby <Polish> border, along with troops and hardware from seven other nations that make up Nato's Spearhead Force, which was set up last year in response to Russia's intervention in Ukraine.
I added the bold and the descriptor.
source: http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/world_news/Europe/article1568452.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2015_06_14
"activists who criticised Mr Putin in Europe were part of a "dirty campaign against the tsar-daddy" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11678629/Russian-state-TV-reporter-fired-after-criticising-Vladimir-Putin.html
The tsar-daddy. Surreal.
Swietoszow is closer to Germany than Ukraine. But I guess it's a start.
I feel for that reporter, Konstantin Goldenzweig. He may lose something a lot more important to him than his job.
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 12, 2015, 11:05:38 AM
Quote from: OJsDad on June 12, 2015, 08:35:54 AM
Quote from: GDS_Starfury on June 11, 2015, 11:03:11 AM
I think attitudes would change quickly if bullets started flying.
I wouldn't count on that Star, too much weak leadership, especially here in the US. These aren't the days of Reagan, Thatcher, and Kohl.
I think hitler made a similar mistake in his opinions about western powers in 1939.
And vice versa. Everyone got "smarter" after several million dead and a continent destroyed for decades.
"And vice versa. Everyone got "smarter" after several million dead and a continent destroyed for decades." Pawelj
To be fair, no one in the West in a "free" country wanted war after the Great War, and most of the people in countries in the East didn't get any say, as most were de facto dictatorships with territorial agenda of their own. In the dictatorships if you dissented you were killed, or put out of the way - Gulags, Concentration camps, or exile to Calabria to die of typhus. The dictators called the shots by their actions.
Russia's next target... Texas?!
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/06/vladimir-putin-texas-secession-119288_Page2.html
Quote from: bayonetbrant on June 25, 2015, 06:09:14 AM
Russia's next target... Texas?!
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/06/vladimir-putin-texas-secession-119288_Page2.html
Wouldn't surprise me if Putin would try almost anything (short of sponsoring terrorism) to try to destabilize the US or any other nation that tries to block his ambitions.
Why cant the little green men be considered state sponsored terrorism?
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 25, 2015, 09:53:01 AM
Why cant the little green men be considered state sponsored terrorism?
One needs evidence.
Quote from: Centurion40 on June 25, 2015, 10:04:17 AM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 25, 2015, 09:53:01 AM
Why cant the little green men be considered state sponsored terrorism?
One needs evidence.
Hundreds of units with the keys to advanced russian hardware, in another country, operating without uniform, is not evidence?
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 25, 2015, 10:09:28 AM
Quote from: Centurion40 on June 25, 2015, 10:04:17 AM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 25, 2015, 09:53:01 AM
Why cant the little green men be considered state sponsored terrorism?
One needs evidence.
Hundreds of units with the keys to advanced russian hardware, in another country, operating without uniform, is not evidence?
Little green men?
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/49/The_Great_Gazoo.png)
That's what the media called the cryptic military personnel seen taking over the Crimea. They had no insignia of any kind, just green uniforms.
Quote from: Centurion40 on June 25, 2015, 10:04:17 AM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 25, 2015, 09:53:01 AM
Why cant the little green men be considered state sponsored terrorism?
One needs evidence.
They're brought on by an excess of vodka. Who makes a lot of vodka? ;)
the French
The Swedes.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.izismile.com%2Fimg%2Fimg5%2F20120301%2Foriginal640%2Fhilarious_scumbag_alcohol_memes_640_11.jpg&hash=55d9f1e859c81c2afee3cd506f3a5c145d07cea4)
http://news.gc.ca/web/article-en.do;jsessionid=d63f4abb7c5b37714526b3a6fc7f1fa0efb11267140a3ec5b5c19e8ad88a9bd8.e38RbhaLb3qNe38Ra3b0?mthd=index&crtr.page=1&nid=993299
O0
One year ago today
http://www.ibtimes.com/mh17-anniversary-sickening-video-allegedly-shows-pro-russian-rebels-ransacking-2013068
Quote from: Boggit on June 25, 2015, 06:50:33 PM
Quote from: Centurion40 on June 25, 2015, 10:04:17 AM
Quote from: Mr. Bigglesworth on June 25, 2015, 09:53:01 AM
Why cant the little green men be considered state sponsored terrorism?
One needs evidence.
They're brought on by an excess of vodka. Who makes a lot of vodka? ;)
Poland, the one and only original. Don't accept substitutes. :)
Quote from: bayonetbrant on July 17, 2015, 05:53:11 AM
One year ago today
http://www.ibtimes.com/mh17-anniversary-sickening-video-allegedly-shows-pro-russian-rebels-ransacking-2013068
Related -
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/30/world/europe/russia-vetoes-un-resolution-on-tribunal-for-malaysia-airlines-crash-in-ukraine.html
Quote from: mirth on August 05, 2015, 01:56:28 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/30/world/europe/russia-vetoes-un-resolution-on-tribunal-for-malaysia-airlines-crash-in-ukraine.html
QuoteThe Russians suggested the measure was a biased and politically motivated propaganda move to implicate the Kremlin or the Kremlin-backed Ukrainian separatists in control of eastern Ukraine.
what if it was an
unbiased and
non-politically motivated
recognition of reality to
confirm the involvement of the Kremlin or the Kremlin-backed Ukrainian separatists in control of eastern Ukraine.
Same answer would apply.
this is kinda funny
https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/12/propaganda-watch-listen-to-two-russians-badly-impersonate-cia-spies-to-pin-mh17-on-u-s/
Confirmation of what we already knew.
QuoteUkraine is calling for a criminal investigation following a Dutch report identifying a Russian-made Buk missile as the cause of last year's Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister said in a United Nations press conference Tuesday. Pavlo Kimkin also called on Russia to cooperate with any future criminal probe.
The 15-month investigation by the Dutch Safety Board claims the Buk missile was fired from an area held by Russian-backed separatists. It also identifies the site where the Boeing 777 crashed in Eastern Ukraine as belonging to the rebels. The July 17 crash killed all 298 on board.
The White House is calling the findings an "important milestone in the effort to hold accountable those responsible," AP reports.
But Russia is denying the conclusions.
source: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/10/13/mh17-crash-report-finds-plane-downed-by-russian-missile-over-eastern-ukraine/?intcmp=hpbt1
Quote from: LongBlade on October 13, 2015, 12:29:59 PM
Confirmation of what we already knew.
QuoteThe White House is calling the findings an "important milestone in the effort to hold accountable those responsible," AP reports.
Aaaaaand that's how you talk without really saying anything. >:(
^And poorly.
>:(
Vader replaces Lenin.... :o
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2015/oct/23/darth-vader-statue-erected-ukraine
^^^
personally I thought that was 9 layers of awesome
Vladimir Skywalker will soon be there to quell this disturbance in the Force.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/20/how-putins-ukrainian-dream-turned-into-a-nightmare/
Quote from: bayonetbrant on October 24, 2015, 08:40:18 AM
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/20/how-putins-ukrainian-dream-turned-into-a-nightmare/
Interesting. Thanks.
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1253/RAND_RR1253.pdf
For those who are wondering what the topic of that pdf is, that Mirth linked to: it's about wargaming the defense of the Balkans under current conditions.
It does not end well for the West. (Spoiler.)
QuoteAcross multiple games using a wide range of expert
participants playing both sides, the longest it has taken
Russian forces to reach the outskirts of Tallinn and Riga
is 60 hours.
That's about how long Barth has taken to reach Tallinn in gameplay hours during our Barbarossa game, btw. >:D
Yeah, I guess I should have prefaced that a little better :P
It's an excellent read. I found the link on BGG when I was looking at Next War: Poland
https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/191989/next-war-poland
Quote from: mirth on February 29, 2016, 03:36:15 PM
Yeah, I guess I should have prefaced that a little better :P
It's an excellent read. I found the link on BGG when I was looking at Next War: Poland
https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/191989/next-war-poland
It is a good read, and reflects (unclassified) briefings we've gotten on the high level US Army thinking about potential conflict in the Baltics.
I don't imagine that gives the Baltic states the warm-and-fuzzies.
But Obama promised them warm fuzzies!
It's only 16 pages and more of an executive overview than highly detailed review, so it's a quick easy read. Even for those of us that are slow readers.
I wonder if nuclear weapons of any kind would be considered by NATO or Russia if fighting spread to the Baltics.
No way NATO is going to threaten nukes over the Baltics. As the RAND piece noted, we're not going to trade New York for Riga.
What about the Russians? I'm thinking of smaller tactical nukes. Putin has been more in favor of using them lately...actually nukes are seen as 'more acceptable' for use by Russian military doctrine according to reading I've done in Foreign Affairs and other magazines like that.
I don't know what current Russian doctrine is on Tac Nukes, but I hope they aren't dumb enough to think they could pull off a 'limited exchange'.
Anyway, they don't need nukes to roll into the Baltics as things currently stand.
But they would need nukes to keep the Baltics once NATO counterattacked, and the concern is that they're willing to use them.
Here's a sample of the kind of stuff I have been reading, from Reuters July 2015.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-russia-nuclear-insight-idUKKBN0L825A20150204
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on February 29, 2016, 08:07:00 PM
But they would need nukes to keep the Baltics once NATO counterattacked, and the concern is that they're willing to use them.
Would NATO dare to use heavy bombers against the Russian homeland to go after both military and civilian infrastructure targets. Or would NATO be afraid that Putin would respond with nukes.
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on February 29, 2016, 08:07:00 PM
But they would need nukes to keep the Baltics once NATO counterattacked, and the concern is that they're willing to use them.
Is Putin willing to exchange Riga for Moscow?
I'm pretty sure nobody wants to exchange Riga for anything, especially the Rigans!
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on March 01, 2016, 12:23:15 PM
especially the Rigans!
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thinkaboutit-aliens.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F07%2FRigelian.jpg&hash=6ef29b3832da9050edd48605e94673eae1a947b2)
Hahaha well she definitely doesn't look happy about the exchange possibility!
I am sad to say I was thinking about Star Trek Rigans, too.
I am sadder to say I was actually thinking about Risa.
I am not sad to say I wasn't thinking about Voyager.
That is all.
Well...
My best friend was a freight pilot and once Skyped me from a bar/cafe in Riga while on a layover there. He was stunned by the beauty of the women. Every single one was a 9+ in his book. The man had been around the planet dozens of times and THAT was the place he named as having the best looking women in the world. :P
Quote from: Airborne Rifles on February 29, 2016, 08:07:00 PM
But they would need nukes to keep the Baltics once NATO counterattacked, and the concern is that they're willing to use them.
Excellent point. I definitely think the Russians would rattle the nuclear saber and play for time hoping for a settlement that would leave them dominant over the Baltics.
Didn't they put Iskanders into Kaliningrad last year? That's a pretty big stick to threaten with.
Quote from: Gusington on February 29, 2016, 08:54:51 PM
Here's a sample of the kind of stuff I have been reading, from Reuters July 2015.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-russia-nuclear-insight-idUKKBN0L825A20150204 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-russia-nuclear-insight-idUKKBN0L825A20150204)
QuoteThis was not included in the new doctrine, however, which says Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or a conventional attack that endangered the state's existence.
Hasn't this long been the Soviet/Russian stance? It's pretty open ended as to what "endangers the state's existence". What worries me is that Putin might be delusional enough to think he could lob a few tactical nukes and keep things from escalating.
Quote from: Ubercat on March 04, 2016, 11:02:49 AM
Well...
My best friend was a freight pilot and once Skyped me from a bar/cafe in Riga while on a layover there. He was stunned by the beauty of the women. Every single one was a 9+ in his book. The man had been around the planet dozens of times and THAT was the place he named as having the best looking women in the world. :P
I concur. I never went to Riga but I did go to Tallinn and the women all through the region were stunning. Even the train ride there from Warsaw was packed with hotties. I legitimately thought there must have been some sort of modelling convention that they were all going to or something returning from but the whole city was like that. Bloody tall too, I'm 5'11" and quite a few were right around my height or a little taller.
We must defend the honor of Northern European hotties!
Except for the Faroe Islanders because....fuck those people, am I right?
Quote from: Silent Disapproval Robot on March 04, 2016, 11:31:04 AM
Except for the Faroe Islanders because....fuck those people, am I right?
I'd definitely defend the one the right.
(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/05/71/2d/05712dd51b35cf1c4a6a8c3d2e376811.jpg)
I have no problem with any of them.
I'll take care of the other two for you Mirth. O0
You're all going to end up in wicker men.
^That would be the Summer Isles.
That's just what those blubber munchers want you to think. Then when your guard is down, WHACK! Seal club to the back of the melon and next thing you know, you're in the wicker. I know what they're capable of. I've played Crusader Kings II.
Crap! After reading that RAND paper, I looked up Brigade Combat Team on Wikipedia. I know Wikipedia isn't always accurate, but according to their write, a BCT has no organic air-defense. None, zip. I'm sure the individual combat battalions may have some light AD, but there is no dedicated AD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigade_combat_team
Quote from: OJsDad on March 06, 2016, 01:28:07 PM
Crap! After reading that RAND paper, I looked up Brigade Combat Team on Wikipedia. I know Wikipedia isn't always accurate, but according to their write, a BCT has no organic air-defense. None, zip. I'm sure the individual combat battalions may have some light AD, but there is no dedicated AD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigade_combat_team
That is correct. No organic AD in brigades or battalions.
More cheery news about the situation in Eastern Europe
http://breakingdefense.com/2016/04/wargame-warns-nato-unready-for-baltic-crisis/ (http://breakingdefense.com/2016/04/wargame-warns-nato-unready-for-baltic-crisis/)
Quote
"At this point, we only have a company" — less than 200 soldiers — "in each of the three Baltic States," said report co-author Julianne Smith (http://www.cnas.org/SmithJulianne), a former White House and Pentagon official. "The feeling among US analysts and in the Baltic States is that's not enough to serve as a deterrent."
Quote"We have not exercised moving land forces across the European continent for decades," said Smith. "The atrophy is off the charts." All the logistical details of railroad networks, bridge load-bearing capacity, and so on must be relearned so we can "signal to the Russians we can move quickly."
Oy vey.
Now is a fine time to be finding out that "NATO would be dangerously slow to respond to a crisis scenario in the Baltics"--they are at least a year too late.
Since we need more positive reinforcement that everything will turn out alright.
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1145.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fo513%2FOJsDad%2FNATO%2520Def%2520Spending%2520of%2520GDP_1.jpg&hash=b6225409123b8d52134c860b9a0d804642b340b4)
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1145.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fo513%2FOJsDad%2FNATO%2520Def%2520Spending%25202014-2015_1.jpg&hash=aa882acd64533c9fcfa551c242dbde75c3b040bf)
Putin answered questions from callers during a four hour show. Here are a couple of responses.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/vladimir-putin-slams-us-imperial-ambitions-in-call-in-show/ar-BBrKPvT?ocid=spartanntp
Quote
On foreign policy, Putin appeared to send mixed messages on relations with Washington, saying the United States must abandon it's "imperial ambitions" and treat Russia as an equal partner.
While noting that the two countries have been able to cooperate constructively on non-proliferation issues, terrorism, and the Iranian nuclear deal, he warned the U.S. against "speaking from the position of force, diktat and imperial ambitions." If the U.S. treats Russia with respect, he added, "we will always be able to find solutions that will satisfy everyone."
Later, however, in response to a question about whether a woman might run for the Russian presidency as in the U.S., Putin used the opportunity to present a somewhat softer line.
"America is not the problem we face, we need to deal with domestic problems first, roads, education, economic development," he said. "If we do that, America will not be the issue. Because we will feel strong enough and we will be proud of our country.
Asked about Russia's strained ties with Turkey, Ukraine and some other nations, Putin said Russia was ready for friendly ties with all nations but would retaliate against any hostile moves. "We must respond, or otherwise they will sit on our neck and whip us up," Putin said.
I posted this in the aircraft buzzing thread too - it is equally appropriate here, good article:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/moscow-pentagon-us-secret-study-213811
I can't be the only one chuckling that Luxembourg has increased spending 27% and is still only at 0.5% of GDP, right? What'd they do, go on a binge and buy everyone new rubber bands for their slingshots?
Quote from: bayonetbrant on April 14, 2016, 08:45:14 PM
I can't be the only one chuckling that Luxembourg has increased spending 27% and is still only at 0.5% of GDP, right? What'd they do, go on a binge and buy everyone new rubber bands for their slingshots?
They probably hired a second policeman.
Maybe they doubled up and bought 2 bullets last year?
Quote from: bayonetbrant on April 14, 2016, 08:45:14 PM
I can't be the only one chuckling that Luxembourg has increased spending 27% and is still only at 0.5% of GDP, right? What'd they do, go on a binge and buy everyone new rubber bands for their slingshots?
As small as Luxembourg (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/lu.html) is, I was surprised that its GDP was estimated at being $56.58 billion in 2015.
Wait... Greece has a GDP? ??? :o :2funny:
Quote from: JasonPratt on April 18, 2016, 11:18:57 AMWait... Greece has a GDP? ??? :o :2funny:
does a negative one count?
Hacking your way to counter-battery fire
https://www.crowdstrike.com/blog/danger-close-fancy-bear-tracking-ukrainian-field-artillery-units/
"Reducing fire time from... minutes to under 15 seconds..."
If it seems too good to be true.. :(
Don't tell me we're going to have to go back to Signal Flags. :hide:
Whoa
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/8599/watch-ukraines-largest-munitions-depot-transformed-into-massive-fireball
:o
DAMNNNN!!! I bet Putin gets a woody watching that.
Holy crap, is that today?
Yesterday. Still probably going though.
Damn.
Supposedly no one was hurt. Hard to imagine.
Impossible - whoever was filming got knocked down a few times. Anyone any closer...
Little Green Men drones strike again?
A former Russian politician who obtained political asylum in the Ukraine was gunned down yesterday.
Someone sent up a drone after the first activity started, caught several things including the major blast. The first part of the video is an abbreviated version of the full video already linked above (for context).
So it was a Russian drone that got the ammo dump
http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/news/a27511/russia-drone-thermite-grenade-ukraine-ammo/
Sounds almost like 1917 instead of 2017.
Quote from: mirth on July 27, 2017, 05:34:39 PM
So it was a Russian drone that got the ammo dump
http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/news/a27511/russia-drone-thermite-grenade-ukraine-ammo/
So the lesson here is 'don't Pearl Harbor your ammunition'?
Michael Bay is already working on Pearl Harbor 2 - Attack of the Drones.
Quote from: mirth on July 28, 2017, 07:27:19 AM
Michael Bay is already working on Pearl Harbor 2 - Attack of the Drones.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/02/army-study-173rd-airborne-brigade-europe-russia-242273
Very sad.
It's much worse than sad.
Better to confront the issues now in 'peacetime' than later under a huge amount of pressure if there is war.
good analysis of OSINT videos from Russia / Ukraine
https://medium.com/dfrlab/un-true-peacekeepers-not-deploying-in-ukraine-e4ddc1f5ca7d
Quote from: Gusington on September 05, 2017, 07:24:31 AM
Better to confront the issues now in 'peacetime' than later under a huge amount of pressure if there is war.
Yep, was just about to say better to discover it now than when the bullets/Borscht are flying.
When the borscht is flying, everyone is screwed.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ukraine-crisis-crimea-annexation/why-ukrainian-forces-gave-up-crimea-without-a-fight-and-nato-is-alert-idUKKBN1A90G2
Long front page article in the 11/24 WSJ about Timur Mahhauri who has been fighting Russians since Chechnya. He has been tied into intelligence groups for:
Chechnyan Rebels
Georgia
Ukraine
Syrian Rebels
Turkey
The article goes on to state that the Ukraine has become an assassination zone for all four sides (Ukraine Government, Russia, Russian/Ukrainian Forces; Ukraine/anit-Russian forces). A huge amount of murder for hire, murder for ideology, disinformation claiming that individuals are working for one side against the other, burn operations to nail spies and assassins and so forth.
Timur was arrested in Kiev on gun charges with the belief that he was working with Russia to kill Russian critics in Turkey. He claimed he was working for the Ukraine spy groups and other Western or Islamic Anti-Russian groups. He proved enough of his case that the "working with Russia" has been discredited as a false flag operation by the Russians trying to discredit him.
Really nasty stuff reminiscent of the worst of the Cold War in the late 1940s in Germany, Greece and Eastern Europe.
Was Timur Mahhauri in the US Special Forces and did he go freelance to Afghanistan to fight Soviets? The one and the same who presented his CO with a Spetsnaz belt buckle, or am I thinking of someone completely different?
Quote from: Uberhaus on November 25, 2017, 08:24:49 PM
Was Timur Mahhauri in the US Special Forces and did he go freelance to Afghanistan to fight Soviets? The one and the same who presented his CO with a Spetsnaz belt buckle, or am I thinking of someone completely different?
Must be someone else. He is from Chechnya and started out in that conflict if the WSJ is correct.
Thanks, I should read the article.
https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/944407731838050304
(https://www.grogheads.com/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frs827.pbsrc.com%2Falbums%2Fzz200%2Fpepper2010_bucket%2F1947_eating_popcorn_and_drinking_be.gif%3Fw%3D280%26amp%3Bh%3D210%26amp%3Bfit%3Dcrop&hash=f023afd1e2d077eb66364e6d228040d6308191ca)
Ivan, we've got a surprise for you.
I wouldnt be smug.
It'll make a good live fire test bed.
I just hope this doesn't make Vlad take his shirt off again. :hide:
(https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/08/gettyimages-826469374.jpg?quality=65&strip=all&w=782&strip=all)
^I conquered a country that was this big
Heh, I bet that's what he was saying too.
'Wait til you see the next one.'
"In Russia, men go topless. And women stare at them".
'In Soviet Russia men are men. And women are men. Everyone is man.'
In Russia, women have boobs. And men ARE boobs.
Do you not feel the love, comrade? Do you need The Reeducation?
At least Trump has not melted our eyeballs with a similar photo.
Quote from: airboy on December 30, 2017, 06:56:03 PM
At least Trump has not melted our eyeballs with a similar photo.
He still has a good golf swing
Why Obama did not give the Ukraine the rights to buy Javelin missiles is something I never understood.
Quote from: airboy on December 31, 2017, 11:54:01 AM
Why Obama did not give the Ukraine the rights to buy Javelin missiles is something I never understood.
Trying not to escalate at a time when they could've caused serious mischief in Syria, and trying not to scare the hell out of the NATO allies we have on the Baltic Coast that Trump thinks we should abandon because they don't pay their fair share into the alliance.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on December 31, 2017, 11:57:39 AM
Quote from: airboy on December 31, 2017, 11:54:01 AM
Why Obama did not give the Ukraine the rights to buy Javelin missiles is something I never understood.
Trying not to escalate at a time when they could've caused serious mischief in Syria, and trying not to scare the hell out of the NATO allies we have on the Baltic Coast that Trump thinks we should abandon because they don't pay their fair share into the alliance.
I can buy the Syria argument. The Baltics? Wonderful people and wonderful countries which are great to visit. But Russia could take them in 24 hours if they wished. Syria ended up being a Russian/Syrian & Iran victory over ISIS and the Syrian rebels.
Still, thanks for the insight.
Quote from: airboy on January 01, 2018, 11:42:59 AMBut Russia could take them in 24 hours if they wished.
everyone knows that - especially them - and that's why they're scared to death of any provocations of the Russians
and having a President who openly casts doubt on article 5 of the NATO treaty doesn't help, since that was a major reason most of those former eastern European countries joined NATO
Quote from: airboy on December 31, 2017, 11:54:01 AM
Why Obama did not give the Ukraine the rights to buy Javelin missiles is something I never understood.
Looky here:
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/18922/it-looks-like-javelin-anti-tank-missiles-are-headed-to-battlefield-ukraine
Soon more 'Wagner' AFVs go BOOM.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/04/09/the-war-in-ukraine-is-more-devastating-than-you-know/
Investigators have determined it was a Russian supplied missile that was used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/europe/russia-malaysia-airlines-ukraine-missile.html
Quote from: mirth on May 24, 2018, 12:54:16 PM
Investigators have determined it was a Russian supplied missile that was used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/europe/russia-malaysia-airlines-ukraine-missile.html
so who is going to claim "Fake News" first?
A. Trump
B. Putin
C. The IRA in St Pete
D. Facebook
E. 4Chan
F. Malaysian Airlines
the trick answer is 4Chan - who already debunked it 7 years ago!
All of the above.
Quote from: bayonetbrant on May 24, 2018, 01:25:42 PM
Quote from: mirth on May 24, 2018, 12:54:16 PM
Investigators have determined it was a Russian supplied missile that was used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/europe/russia-malaysia-airlines-ukraine-missile.html
so who is going to claim "Fake News" first?
A. Trump
B. Putin
C. The IRA in St Pete
D. Facebook
E. 4Chan
F. Malaysian Airlines
the trick answer is 4Chan - who already debunked it 7 years ago!
Russia was claiming 'fake news' before the findings had even been released. You'd almost think they knew what the findings would be in advance... how could that be?
Vodka makes you psychic [don't you know]. If your date starts vodka shots, YOU KNOW you're either having sexy time later or you're cleaning up barf. :uglystupid2:
All of the above.
Can't you do both together? In Russia, you no put Vodka down. Vodka puts you down.
https://twitter.com/iAmTheWarax/status/1000017985480871939
Eek - he won't be happy living underground now for the rest of his life.
Maybe shooting down airliners is his second job. You know, something to do on the weekends to help pay the mortgage.
He'll always have St Petersburg
I thought that was changed to, "Vlad-Grad" last year.
Russia counter-attacks on claims about MH 17
https://medium.com/dfrlab/putinatwar-dismissing-mh17-8268d2968b9
https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-journalist-babchenko-shot-dead-in-kyiv/29257834.html
Quote from: mirth on May 29, 2018, 03:35:59 PM
https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-journalist-babchenko-shot-dead-in-kyiv/29257834.html
https://www.thedailybeast.com/murdered-russian-journalist-arkady-babchenko-alive-faked-death?ref=home
Russian journalist Arkady Babchenko appeared alive and well at a press conference Wednesday, a day after he was reportedly slain. His death was faked as part of a Ukrainian Security Service operation, Babchenko revealed. The operation allegedly involved capturing "those who were trying to kill" Babchenko, NBC News reports. One person is reportedly in custody. "Special apologies to my wife. Olechka, I am sorry, but there were no options here, Babchenko reportedly said during the press conference.
He stole that idea from The Punisher: Season 1 dammit!
Haha!!